World Population Prospects 2022 Thread - China's population has peaked
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  World Population Prospects 2022 Thread - China's population has peaked
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Author Topic: World Population Prospects 2022 Thread - China's population has peaked  (Read 1248 times)
Biden his time
Abdullah
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« on: July 09, 2022, 03:09:42 PM »

Discussion of the United Nations World Population Prospects 2022.

The United Nations' World Population Prospects is a biennially-updated database where key demographic indicators are estimated and projected down to the country level.

This year's WPP database was delayed for some time due to the COVID-19 pandemic and other numerous factors, including upgrading the database to include projections for every single year on demographic indicators and age statistics (rather than the five-year bins previously used). Not only this, but population estimates are not only being made for July 1, but also January 1 of each year.

https://population.un.org/wpp2022-embargoed
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Biden his time
Abdullah
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« Reply #1 on: July 09, 2022, 03:10:00 PM »

The world's population as of July 1, 2021 has been revised upwards to 7.91 Billion (which is up from the 7.88 Billion projected by the United Nations three years ago). The main reasons for this are upward revisions in the following countries:



India - Where the population has been revised upwards by 14.2 million due to lower-than-expected levels of mortality from 2014 to 2019 and the inclusion of the Indian-administered regions of Jammu & Kashmir.

Pakistan - Where the population has been revised upwards by 6.2 million due to a reassessment of previous censuses to include Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan, along with an upward revision in Total Fertility Rate due to a younger-than-expected age structure found in the 2017 census.

Egypt - Where the population has been revised upwards by 5.0 million due to a reassessment of previous censuses and a lower-than-expected amount of outmigration from the country over the previous years.

United States of America - Where the population has been revised upwards by 4.1 million due to the incorporation of the results of the 2020 United States census, causing upward revisions in the amount of in-migration over the last few years.

Democratic Republic of the Congo - Where the population has been revised upwards by 3.5 million due to upward revisions in fertility levels of the country. Whereas previously the country's Total Fertility Rate had been expected to be 6.09 in 2017, a recently released MICS survey showed the Fertility Rate actually was 6.21, somewhat higher than the projection.

Bangladesh - Where the population has been revised upwards by 3.1 million due to a downward revision in out-migration over the last few years.

Syria - Where the population has been revised upwards by 3.0 million due to increased estimates of in-migration over the last few years, as refugees from the Syrian Civil War return to their home country.

The populations of these countries also were revised upwards by at least one million: Iran, The Philippines, Yemen, Ethiopia, Iraq, Tanzania, Nigeria, Thailand, Ghana, Mali
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Biden his time
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« Reply #2 on: July 09, 2022, 03:10:27 PM »

On the flipside, certain countries have had their populations revised downwards,

China - This is almost certainly the biggest difference between this revision and the previous revision of the World Population Prospects, since the country's population has been revised downwards by 18.3 million based on the results of the 2020 Chinese Census and the availability of new data coming in from the vital registration system of China, showing a massive drop in fertility rates seen over the last few years (the Chinese TFR was projected at 1.16 in 2021!).

China's population has already peaked and began shrinking earlier this year (something previously expected to happen in 2031) and India's population will surpass China's early next year in 2023 (previously expected to occur in 2027). With a rapidly rising median age, the ramifications of a shrinking China will be massive on the world's economy. Since I believe this is the most important and interesting change made, I included it in the title.

Mexico - The one other country to have its population revised downwards this revision significantly, by 3.6 million people. This is due to the incorporation of the 2020 Mexican census and recent data showing a massive drop in fertility rates in the country (to a projected 1.82 in 2021 and possibly lower if recent data are to be believed). The Mexican population, previously expected to start shrinking in 2062, now is projected to peak in 2052.

The populations of these countries also were revised downwards by at least one million: Indonesia, Kenya, Japan, Serbia (due to the separation of Kosovo in UN statistics), Uganda, Lebanon, Italy, Myanmar
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super6646
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« Reply #3 on: July 09, 2022, 07:12:40 PM »

One thing I’ve noticed with demographic projections is that it often understates demographic change (whether we’re talking about ethnographic change in the US, the decline in world fertility rates, etc).

Gradually China’s population fall starting point has been pushed forward and forward. Now it’s already starting 8 years ahead of schedule.

Interesting to see India’s gradual fall to replacement fertility rates and below.
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« Reply #4 on: July 09, 2022, 07:40:59 PM »

Interesting that Indonesia's projection was revised downward, while Thailand and the Philippines were revised upward.
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The Ex-Factor
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« Reply #5 on: July 09, 2022, 10:22:27 PM »

One thing I’ve noticed with demographic projections is that it often understates demographic change (whether we’re talking about ethnographic change in the US, the decline in world fertility rates, etc).

Gradually China’s population fall starting point has been pushed forward and forward. Now it’s already starting 8 years ahead of schedule.

Interesting to see India’s gradual fall to replacement fertility rates and below.

I could see big bureaucracies like the United Nations' Population Division being overly cautious in their projections. Are you saying other demographic projections are similar as well?

Got bored and looked up a few countries and their 50% median estimates for 2100:

China: ~1.4 billion to ~770 million
India: ~1.4 billion to ~1.5 billion
United States: ~340 million to ~390 million
Indonesia: ~275 million to ~297 million
Pakistan: ~220 million to ~485 million
Nigeria: ~205 million to ~550 million
Ethiopia: ~115 million to ~325 million
Russia: ~142 million to ~112 million (higher than I thought)

Germany: ~83 million to ~68 million
France: ~64 million to ~61 million
Italy: ~59 million to ~36 million
United Kingdom: ~66 million to $70 million

Japan: ~125 million to ~73 million
South Korea: ~52 million to ~ 24 million

Indonesia: ~275 million to ~300 million
Philippines: ~110 million to ~180 million
Vietnam: ~98 million to ~90 million
Thailand: ~72 million to ~45 million



Predicted top 24 countries by population in 2100. Bet you can't guess #25:


#25 is
Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.


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kwabbit
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« Reply #6 on: July 10, 2022, 01:56:41 PM »

Wow, that China 2100 median estimate is staggering. I'd have to imagine that the government does something to encourage fertility. China's biggest obstacle to becoming the world's foremost superpower might be that it will steadily lose its population advantage to the United States.
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Mr. Reactionary
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« Reply #7 on: July 10, 2022, 02:14:00 PM »

Wow, that China 2100 median estimate is staggering. I'd have to imagine that the government does something to encourage fertility. China's biggest obstacle to becoming the world's foremost superpower might be that it will steadily lose its population advantage to the United States.

The problem is the huge mismatch between males and females in china.
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David Hume
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« Reply #8 on: July 11, 2022, 03:26:29 AM »

One thing I’ve noticed with demographic projections is that it often understates demographic change (whether we’re talking about ethnographic change in the US, the decline in world fertility rates, etc).

Gradually China’s population fall starting point has been pushed forward and forward. Now it’s already starting 8 years ahead of schedule.

Interesting to see India’s gradual fall to replacement fertility rates and below.

I could see big bureaucracies like the United Nations' Population Division being overly cautious in their projections. Are you saying other demographic projections are similar as well?

Got bored and looked up a few countries and their 50% median estimates for 2100:

China: ~1.4 billion to ~770 million
India: ~1.4 billion to ~1.5 billion
United States: ~340 million to ~390 million
Indonesia: ~275 million to ~297 million
Pakistan: ~220 million to ~485 million
Nigeria: ~205 million to ~550 million
Ethiopia: ~115 million to ~325 million
Russia: ~142 million to ~112 million (higher than I thought)

Germany: ~83 million to ~68 million
France: ~64 million to ~61 million
Italy: ~59 million to ~36 million
United Kingdom: ~66 million to $70 million

Japan: ~125 million to ~73 million
South Korea: ~52 million to ~ 24 million

Indonesia: ~275 million to ~300 million
Philippines: ~110 million to ~180 million
Vietnam: ~98 million to ~90 million
Thailand: ~72 million to ~45 million



Predicted top 24 countries by population in 2100. Bet you can't guess #25:


#25 is
Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.


This, if true, would be a huge humanitarian concern. The economy of China, Japan and South Korea likely collapse with such hyper senior population. Nigeria, Pakistan, etc, won't be able to support their population.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #9 on: July 11, 2022, 05:20:23 AM »

That estimate for Russia may be optimistic on present trends.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #10 on: July 11, 2022, 09:15:58 AM »

Did global population still increase in the year 2020 despite COVID?
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super6646
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« Reply #11 on: July 11, 2022, 09:38:42 AM »

Wow, that China 2100 median estimate is staggering. I'd have to imagine that the government does something to encourage fertility. China's biggest obstacle to becoming the world's foremost superpower might be that it will steadily lose its population advantage to the United States.

Not at all imo. With a fertility rate of 1.3, China’s population would decline to 40% of its present level in 2 generations. I can’t see a significant reversal considering they’ve pretty much stretched out their demographic momentum at this point.
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super6646
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« Reply #12 on: July 11, 2022, 09:44:38 AM »

One thing I’ve noticed with demographic projections is that it often understates demographic change (whether we’re talking about ethnographic change in the US, the decline in world fertility rates, etc).

Gradually China’s population fall starting point has been pushed forward and forward. Now it’s already starting 8 years ahead of schedule.

Interesting to see India’s gradual fall to replacement fertility rates and below.

I could see big bureaucracies like the United Nations' Population Division being overly cautious in their projections. Are you saying other demographic projections are similar as well?

Got bored and looked up a few countries and their 50% median estimates for 2100:

China: ~1.4 billion to ~770 million
India: ~1.4 billion to ~1.5 billion
United States: ~340 million to ~390 million
Indonesia: ~275 million to ~297 million
Pakistan: ~220 million to ~485 million
Nigeria: ~205 million to ~550 million
Ethiopia: ~115 million to ~325 million
Russia: ~142 million to ~112 million (higher than I thought)

Germany: ~83 million to ~68 million
France: ~64 million to ~61 million
Italy: ~59 million to ~36 million
United Kingdom: ~66 million to $70 million

Japan: ~125 million to ~73 million
South Korea: ~52 million to ~ 24 million

Indonesia: ~275 million to ~300 million
Philippines: ~110 million to ~180 million
Vietnam: ~98 million to ~90 million
Thailand: ~72 million to ~45 million



Predicted top 24 countries by population in 2100. Bet you can't guess #25:


#25 is
Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.



Spitballing, but if I were to guess how it all plays out, China’s lower end seems about right, India is too high, Nigeria is too low, the US is too low, Russia is too high, Japan’s is too high, South Korea’s low end seems about right. Ofc, that assumes immigration trends largely remain the same.

I can’t see India having 1.4-1.5 billion people if it’s already below replacement with its fertility rats (which is what has been reported). China took roughly 30 years for its population momentum to come to an end (from when it crossed below the 2.1 rate), I’d expect India to follow appropriately a similar timetable (maybe a little longer considering I don’t expect it’s tfr to crash like China’s did).
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SInNYC
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« Reply #13 on: July 11, 2022, 11:08:31 AM »

I dont really think India will follow China that closely. China has a heavy handed government that can enforce whatever policy they want, while India is a free country that hasnt even been successful enforcing laws that other free countries do.

So, any changes in India's population have to be driven by socio-economic issues. The biggest of these is probably urbanization, but India is <40% urban even today. India's falling fertility rate without heavy urbanization is promising though, and I think it portends that India might go lower than predicted.

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« Reply #14 on: July 11, 2022, 05:28:20 PM »

I dont really think India will follow China that closely. China has a heavy handed government that can enforce whatever policy they want, while India is a free country that hasnt even been successful enforcing laws that other free countries do.

So, any changes in India's population have to be driven by socio-economic issues. The biggest of these is probably urbanization, but India is <40% urban even today. India's falling fertility rate without heavy urbanization is promising though, and I think it portends that India might go lower than predicted.

China’s fertility rate was already going down before the one-child policy was implemented. The TFR there hasn’t rebounded back to anywhere near replacement since the policy was repealed, due to socio-economic + cultural factors, COVID-19, and possibly the skewed sex ratio among under 40s. I would expect India’s fertility rate/population to be lower than current projections for similar reasons (including a male-heavy sex ratio).
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Biden his time
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« Reply #15 on: July 17, 2022, 12:05:54 AM »
« Edited: July 17, 2022, 12:15:50 AM by Biden his time »

The biggest problems for China and India right now are growing old before they grow rich.

Interesting estimates by expert demographer of the University of Wisconsin Yi Fuxian suggest that China's population is subject to demographic manipulation, with fertility rates being much lower than the official numbers being reported to the United Nations and the population truly having started shrinking in 2018.

He makes a compelling case for his argument here ->

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-2020-census-inflates-population-figures-downplays-demographic-challenge-by-yi-fuxian-2021-08

Moreover, he also has shared the results of a leaked 2020 Chinese census database showing that China's true numbers are heavily manipulated, which you all can read about here

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super6646
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« Reply #16 on: July 17, 2022, 09:35:29 PM »
« Edited: July 17, 2022, 10:13:55 PM by super6646 »

The biggest problems for China and India right now are growing old before they grow rich.

Interesting estimates by expert demographer of the University of Wisconsin Yi Fuxian suggest that China's population is subject to demographic manipulation, with fertility rates being much lower than the official numbers being reported to the United Nations and the population truly having started shrinking in 2018.

He makes a compelling case for his argument here ->

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-2020-census-inflates-population-figures-downplays-demographic-challenge-by-yi-fuxian-2021-08

Moreover, he also has shared the results of a leaked 2020 Chinese census database showing that China's true numbers are heavily manipulated, which you all can read about here



This wouldn’t surprise me whatsoever.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China

Look at some of the fertility rate projections between 2010 and 2016 when there was still a 1 child policy in place. 1 year is as high as 1.78 lol. Call me skeptical. If China’s population is only at 1.28b and has a fertility rate of 1 (and this demographer thinks it’s lower), and that trend cannot be reversed, china’s population would decline to just 22.6% of its current rate within 2 generations (290 million people).

I doubt it gets that bad, but this is exactly why I’m skeptical when people claim china’s hegemon status is inevitable. Unless China can become competitive in regards to per capita gdp (which it isn’t even close rn), I think claiming this “inevitability” is fear mongering at best.
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« Reply #17 on: July 26, 2022, 06:00:51 AM »

Man, China really is going to become a super old country, even faster than Japan. 50%  of the country might be seniors by mid century.

Also, that Niger number... nope. There's no way that country can sustain 166 million people. I don't care what level of technological advancements there will be in 2100, a 166 million population would be a massive humanitarian disaster. Nigeriens are my neighbors, I know them and their country very well, they give birth a lot but at some point scarcity will become a big problem.
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