2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Maryland (user search)
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  2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Maryland (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Maryland  (Read 23190 times)
Roll Roons
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« on: June 29, 2020, 06:23:16 PM »

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f447017d-dbb7-4c7b-926a-e249174ffce7

Let's clean up this mess.

MD-01: Doesn't change significantly. Still includes the entire Eastern Shore, and the northern fringes of Baltimore and Carroll counties, along the PA border. Also adds all of Harford.  Andy Harris doesn't live here, but it includes almost all of his current territory and would likely run. Safe R.

MD-02: The swingiest district on the map, including most of Baltimore's Northern and Eastern suburbs and the Northeastern part of Anne Arundel. A pure tossup district on paper, but a strong incumbent from either party could potentially become entrenched. Ruppersberger can run here, but it's much tougher territory than his current district, and he could go down in a Biden midterm. Tossup.

MD-03: Not perfect, but a hell of a lot better than the current version. It still stretches from the DC suburbs in Montgomery County, the more Democratic eastern half of Howard (including Columbia and Ellicott City), the northwest part of Anne Arundel (which includes BWI), and Baltimore's southwest suburbs. Sarbanes doesn't live here, but it overlaps significantly with his current monstrosity, and he would likely run here. Safe D.

MD-04: Black-majority seat contained almost entirely within PG, with a sliver of Montgomery. Anthony Brown can have this as a reward for gifting the state one of the greatest governors in the country. Safe D.

MD-05: Steny Hoyer's turf. It still includes all of Calvert, Charles, and St. Mary's, along with part of PG (including Bowie), but is now pushed further into Anne Arundel to include Annapolis. Marginally less Democratic than his current seat, but definitely not enough to threaten him. Safe D.

MD-06: Western Maryland gets a Safe R seat again. In addition to all of strongly Republican Garrett, Allegany and Washington, this seat takes in R-leaning Frederick, most of solidly Republican Carroll, the western half of Howard (more Republican than the eastern part), and the outer part of MoCo. A new Republican from Western Maryland would likely run and win here. Safe R.

MD-07: Another black-majority seat that includes all of Baltimore City and some its western suburbs. Kweisi Mfume has this for as long as he wants. Safe D.

MD-08: Entirely within Montgomery County, unlike the current gerrymandered mess that combines the liberal DC suburbs with conservative exurban and rural territory in Frederick and Carroll. This district used to elect Connie Morella, a Republican who makes Charlie Baker look like Ted Cruz, but those days are sadly long gone. It is majority white, but has growing Hispanic and Asian populations. David Trone and Jamie Raskin both represent a good chunk of this district, and though Raskin technically lives in the 4th, he is more liberal and would probably be favored in a primary. Either way, the seat is not coming back to Republicans for a long, long time. Safe D.

5D-2R-1T. I think this would be a better reflector of the state's partisanship than the current map.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #1 on: September 10, 2021, 06:27:55 PM »
« Edited: September 10, 2021, 06:32:27 PM by Roll Roons »

https://davesredistricting.org/join/2fe11b07-a9ac-402d-b397-d80a35b7fa6f

Here's a fair map I made after the census data came out. It's a lot neater than the current map, which isn't hard to do.

There are two strong R seats - one based on the Eastern Shore and one in Western Maryland that also includes the outer part of MoCo. In 2016, Trump won the former by 21 and the latter by 18, so they should be alright. There's also a swing district in the Baltimore suburbs that Hillary only won by less than 2 points. Though it likely shifted to Biden substantially, Hogan got nearly 70% there.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #2 on: November 10, 2021, 02:23:24 PM »

The MD-1 on map 3 is Biden+7.7%,  Harris might be able to survive in that for 2022, but 2024 he'd be gone.

Map 2 has it at like Biden+0.3%
Nope, Harris is doomed. He's too right wing and too infamous to be elected in a Biden district. Another republican could win those but it won't be him

Eh, it's possible that the national environment saves him in 2022 if it's a narrow Biden district. But he'd be done in 2024 for sure.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #3 on: November 23, 2021, 03:31:49 PM »

Harris would probably lose in 2024. He's way too far right for a swing district.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #4 on: November 28, 2021, 05:43:41 PM »



Hot damn. I think ProgressiveModerate said that the GOP actually has a massive geographical advantage in Maryland despite it being an extremely blue state, and I can see how that's the case. The 4-4 map is much cleaner than the current 7-1 map.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #5 on: November 28, 2021, 06:05:06 PM »


Nice! Did Hogan win five or six seats in this map?
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #6 on: December 12, 2021, 08:22:11 PM »

As has been mentioned here, MD-03 is extremely ugly because Sarbanes wanted his district to overlap with the DC and Baltimore media markets so he could be in a good position to run for Senate.

But he had the chance to do so in 2016. Why didn't he take it then? Or he could have run for Governor this year and allowed the district to be substantially cleaned up.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #7 on: March 28, 2022, 06:58:10 PM »

MD-06 is still possible in a good year for the GOP.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #8 on: April 04, 2022, 05:17:54 PM »

So, I guess the new MD-06 is Lean D for this year?
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