2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Maryland

[Skill and Chance]

Here's a DRA reproduction of that MD-01
It voted for Biden by 1,604 votes.

Hmmm...

If that's the case, almost wonder why they are bothering?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's a DRA reproduction of that MD-01
It voted for Biden by 1,604 votes.

Hmmm...

If that's the case, almost wonder why they are bothering?

1,604 Biden vote margin in 2020 is probably enough to knock off someone like Harris even in a Dem midterm in a majority of scenarios. But it's still Dem trending, so I could see a close 2024 race here regardless of Harris wins in 2022 or not, followed by a slow hardening of the Democratic advantage in the district. But that could just be the optimist in me talking. No one knows for sure.

[Devils30]

Terrible job by Dems. Easily could have made the 1st into a Biden +12 seat with minimal disruption to other Dems.

[Stuart98]

Terrible job by Dems. Easily could have made the 1st into a Biden +12 seat with minimal disruption to other Dems.

But Devils30, Hoyer doesn't want to have to appeal to black voters!

[OBD]

Weak, weak, WEAK!

[GALeftist]

Maryland Democrats when they see a Freedom Caucus wingnut across the bridge from Annapolis: "I'm too weak"

Tennessee Republicans when they see a Blue Dog in Nashville: "UNLIMITED POWER"

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Maryland Democrats when they see a Freedom Caucus wingnut across the bridge from Annapolis: "I'm too weak"

Tennessee Republicans when they see a Blue Dog in Nashville: "UNLIMITED POWER"

Only Illinois Democrats have the drive to gerrymander a map where a party that got 38% of the vote gets only 20% of seats.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Just a reminder this map is just a starting point and it’s still very possible MD-1 becomes safer D. A lot a states have started with base maps that are relatively weak gerrymanders and shored them up (IL, GA, OH, just to name a few).

If this map passes as is I’d be very disappointed because it’s not a fair map nor an effective gerrymander, and puts individual politicians wants above everyone else.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Just a reminder this map is just a starting point and it’s still very possible MD-1 becomes safer D. A lot a states have started with base maps that are relatively weak gerrymanders and shored them up (IL, GA, OH, just to name a few).

If this map passes as is I’d be very disappointed because it’s not a fair map nor an effective gerrymander, and puts individual politicians wants above everyone else.

I could see territory being exchanged between the 2nd, 1st, and other Baltimore area districts. There's a lot of heavily Dem precincts in the areas between the 2nd and Howard County that could be placed in the 1st, turning it Biden+5.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I was able to draw a secured 8D-0R Dem Gerrymander with 3 Black opportunity seats.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/e58cab73-1b40-4b10-92c5-589c68cf6866

MD-1: Biden +14.66
MD-2: Biden +15.96
MD-3: Biden +12.91
MD-4: Biden +78.48
MD-5: Biden +43.75
MD-6: Biden +17.77
MD-7: Biden +63.04
MD-8: Biden +31.54

[ProgressiveModerate]

From a partisan standpoint the main reason why this map isn't very effective at making MD-1 isn't because it doesn't take in Anapolis, more so that it should shed 80k+ people at the Northern part of the Penninsula to a blue Baltimore district and that way MD-1 can take in more of the mainland Maryland. This could make the district Biden + double digits without needing to take in Anapolis if that if is such a peoblem.

If Democrats are really that messed up to keep incumbents happy why not just draw MD-1 and MD-6 to be as blue as possible first then let the rest of the map fall into place?

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1464327676970344455

Hot damn. I think ProgressiveModerate said that the GOP actually has a massive geographical advantage in Maryland despite it being an extremely blue state, and I can see how that's the case. The 4-4 map is much cleaner than the current 7-1 map.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1464327676970344455

Hot damn. I think ProgressiveModerate said that the GOP actually has a massive geographical advantage in Maryland despite it being an extremely blue state, and I can see how that's the case. The 4-4 map is much cleaner than the current 7-1 map.

The 7-1 is ugly not because of partisanship but because incumbents demanded gerrymandering for nonpartisan objectives like pairing disparate military bases. 7-1 could actually be very neat if partisanship was the only metric. Fooling oneself that the current map is ugly for partisan reasons is a fallacy.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I was able to draw a clean 5 safe D seats - 2 lean R seats and 1 pure toss-up seat.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/bbe673b4-9931-4639-9771-9622241e4001

[Roll Roons]

I was able to draw a clean 5 safe D seats - 2 lean R seats and 1 pure toss-up seat.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/bbe673b4-9931-4639-9771-9622241e4001

Nice! Did Hogan win five or six seats in this map?

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I was able to draw a clean 5 safe D seats - 2 lean R seats and 1 pure toss-up seat.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/bbe673b4-9931-4639-9771-9622241e4001

Nice! Did Hogan win five or six seats in this map?

He won 4 in my map. Though he was very close in winning the Montgomery County district.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I was able to draw a clean 5 safe D seats - 2 lean R seats and 1 pure toss-up seat.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/bbe673b4-9931-4639-9771-9622241e4001

Nice! Did Hogan win five or six seats in this map?

He won 4 in my map. Though he was very close in winning the Montgomery County district.

That Baltimore district looks like a black pack.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I was able to draw a clean 5 safe D seats - 2 lean R seats and 1 pure toss-up seat.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/bbe673b4-9931-4639-9771-9622241e4001

Nice! Did Hogan win five or six seats in this map?

That Baltimore district looks like a black pack.

The Baltimore district is 61% Black. My map has 3 Black districts which is more than the required 2

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I was able to draw a clean 5 safe D seats - 2 lean R seats and 1 pure toss-up seat.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/bbe673b4-9931-4639-9771-9622241e4001

Nice! Did Hogan win five or six seats in this map?

That Baltimore district looks like a black pack.

The Baltimore district is 61% Black. My map has 3 Black districts which is more than the required 2

Does the Baltimore district have to be 61% black? It'd be a lot like creating a whole PG County CD tbh. You don't need to have it be over 60%.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I was able to draw a clean 5 safe D seats - 2 lean R seats and 1 pure toss-up seat.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/bbe673b4-9931-4639-9771-9622241e4001

Nice! Did Hogan win five or six seats in this map?

That Baltimore district looks like a black pack.

The Baltimore district is 61% Black. My map has 3 Black districts which is more than the required 2

Does the Baltimore district have to be 61% black? It'd be a lot like creating a whole PG County CD tbh. You don't need to have it be over 60%.

I wanted to make a clean map with several competitive seats.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I was able to draw a clean 5 safe D seats - 2 lean R seats and 1 pure toss-up seat.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/bbe673b4-9931-4639-9771-9622241e4001

Nice! Did Hogan win five or six seats in this map?

That Baltimore district looks like a black pack.

The Baltimore district is 61% Black. My map has 3 Black districts which is more than the required 2

Does the Baltimore district have to be 61% black? It'd be a lot like creating a whole PG County CD tbh. You don't need to have it be over 60%.

I wanted to make a clean map with several competitive seats.

In which case, I suppose you have some justification then. I'm just "allergic", for lack of a better word, to an uber-packed Baltimore district.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/94f0d1e1-6099-4d5e-bd9c-253bbc47e9e9
this is a MD non-partisan map I just made, geared towards showing how a non-partisan map can easily elect 7 Democrats.

[If my soul was made of stone]

This is a hot take to some (I had an involved debate with Antonio about it on Discord a few days ago), but it's my belief that Baltimore should be split east/west in a nonpartisan map to avoid the Black vote being either packed (whole of the city + western Baltimore County) or diluted by a completely unrelated constituency (whites in southeastern Baltimore County or northern Anne Arundel County) and preserve better COI elsewhere.

In my nonpartisan map, Baltimore west of the "White L", but crossing it slightly at its narrowest and most cloudy point around Mount Vernon, is grouped in with western Baltimore County and adjacent parts of Howard (producing a 53% Black VAP seat), while the remainder is grouped with parts of Baltimore County to the east and north and the Edgewood-Aberdeen-Havre de Grace corridor of Harford. These configurations somewhat resemble the current 7th and 2nd respectively. I'm heavily reconfiguring the map right now after my discussion with Antonio and a few other decisions I've made since then, but I should be able to post it here soon.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is a hot take to some (I had an involved debate with Antonio about it on Discord a few days ago), but it's my belief that Baltimore should be split east/west in a nonpartisan map to avoid the Black vote being either packed (whole of the city + western Baltimore County) or diluted by a completely unrelated constituency (whites in southeastern Baltimore County or northern Anne Arundel County) and preserve better COI elsewhere.

In my nonpartisan map, Baltimore west of the "White L", but crossing it slightly at its narrowest and most cloudy point around Mount Vernon, is grouped in with western Baltimore County and adjacent parts of Howard (producing a 53% Black VAP seat), while the remainder is grouped with parts of Baltimore County to the east and north and the Edgewood-Aberdeen-Havre de Grace corridor of Harford. These configurations somewhat resemble the current 7th and 2nd respectively. I'm heavily reconfiguring the map right now after my discussion with Antonio and a few other decisions I've made since then, but I should be able to post it here soon.

A compact district taking in all of Baltimore and parts of SE Baltimore County is almost guaranteed to be majority black. I don't think the black vote is being diluted in that scenario.

MD-07 on the map I just posted is:
Total 772,381 100.0%
White 260,385 33.7%
Hispanic 63,522 8.2%
Black 404,115 52.3%
Asian 34,870 4.5%
Native 13,934 1.8%
Pacific 933 0.1%

A district like this is not diluting the black vote. It's making the seat only barely black  majority, but surely that doesn't count as "diluting"?
Also, the Baltimore County part of the seat is some 75% of the seat. That's dominated by Baltimore by default. It's dominated by Baltimore even more when you consider that the heavily R areas in the far SE part of the County will not be voting in the D primary in proportion to their numbers. Perhaps it would be a 5/1 or even a 6/1 ratio between the City and County.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I tried to make an all-Baltimore City district as white as possible. This is the best I could do. Even under these lines it would likely be a performing black district. Those R voting white rurals would not see high turnout in Dem primaries. Even if they did they'd have to consistently deny the preferred black candidate the nomination in racially polarized contests.

[If my soul was made of stone]

This is a hot take to some (I had an involved debate with Antonio about it on Discord a few days ago), but it's my belief that Baltimore should be split east/west in a nonpartisan map to avoid the Black vote being either packed (whole of the city + western Baltimore County) or diluted by a completely unrelated constituency (whites in southeastern Baltimore County or northern Anne Arundel County) and preserve better COI elsewhere.

In my nonpartisan map, Baltimore west of the "White L", but crossing it slightly at its narrowest and most cloudy point around Mount Vernon, is grouped in with western Baltimore County and adjacent parts of Howard (producing a 53% Black VAP seat), while the remainder is grouped with parts of Baltimore County to the east and north and the Edgewood-Aberdeen-Havre de Grace corridor of Harford. These configurations somewhat resemble the current 7th and 2nd respectively. I'm heavily reconfiguring the map right now after my discussion with Antonio and a few other decisions I've made since then, but I should be able to post it here soon.

A compact district taking in all of Baltimore and parts of SE Baltimore County is almost guaranteed to be majority black. I don't think the black vote is being diluted in that scenario.

MD-07 on the map I just posted is:
Total 772,381 100.0%
White 260,385 33.7%
Hispanic 63,522 8.2%
Black 404,115 52.3%
Asian 34,870 4.5%
Native 13,934 1.8%
Pacific 933 0.1%

A district like this is not diluting the black vote. It's making the seat only barely black  majority, but surely that doesn't count as "diluting"?
Also, the Baltimore County part of the seat is some 75% of the seat. That's dominated by Baltimore by default. It's dominated by Baltimore even more when you consider that the heavily R areas in the far SE part of the County will not be voting in the D primary in proportion to their numbers. Perhaps it would be a 5/1 or even a 6/1 ratio between the City and County.

It's been customary since the 80s map to have a seat that combines western Baltimore with the Black communities in adjacent parts of Baltimore County, so this is in part a choice of custom. In addition, though, I feel that the resulting three-way split of Baltimore County (although three-way county splits typically make one recoil for good reason) are a better reflection of COI for a county with a disjointed identity, in the same way that most Minnesota maps worth their salt will group the southern "tongue" of Anoka County with one of the Twin Cities, or the astute Virginia mapper will cleave Prince William County in twain along an east-west axis. The post-industrial Dundalk-Sparrows Point area simply has nothing in common with Randallstown or Reisterstown, which have far closer cultural ties to and hold less antagonism regarding the City of Baltimore, and trying to keep most of Baltimore County whole will produce an awkward crescent-shaped seat unless one is willing, as you were, to group it with much more Republican areas. The southeast does, though, have much in common with coastal Harford County, and that's where the present division of that area emerges.