2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Maryland

[lfromnj]

According to 538's Atlas of Redistricting, the most pro-D gerrymander would have all 8 districts favor Democrats, while the most pro-R gerrymander would have 4 Republican-leaning districts. If the map were drawn to be proportionally partisan and keep as many counties intact as possible, it would have 5 D-leaning districts and 3 R-leaning districts (with one of them being a swing district).

I personally would take the 5D-3R map in exchange for other states squeezing in more D-leaning districts.

FPTP voting doesn't go with proportional representation. a fair maryland map would be 6-2 not 5-3

Uh what? St Mary's, Calvert, And most of Anne Arrundel gets a very clean Trump +4 district.

[lfromnj]

According to 538's Atlas of Redistricting, the most pro-D gerrymander would have all 8 districts favor Democrats, while the most pro-R gerrymander would have 4 Republican-leaning districts. If the map were drawn to be proportionally partisan and keep as many counties intact as possible, it would have 5 D-leaning districts and 3 R-leaning districts (with one of them being a swing district).

I personally would take the 5D-3R map in exchange for other states squeezing in more D-leaning districts.

FPTP voting doesn't go with proportional representation. a fair maryland map would be 6-2 not 5-3

Uh what? St Mary's, Calvert, And most of Anne Arrundel gets a very clean Trump +4 district.

To be fair, there's an argument that the panhandle district should go into Montgomery rather than suburban Baltimore in a fair map. Not one I necessarily agree with but it's not an illegitimate opinion.

If rural Frederick is added thats pretty fair if its mostly exurban Montgomery



Keeps COI's etc together and is quite compact, main problems are splits of Baltimore county and the green district is way too black but if needed one could just make it more ugly with the Purple district to create 2 black majority districts and it wouldn't really be breaking up COI's besides college park as its mostly just traveling around the DC beltway.

Hmm im thinking if you want your Montgomery district


This you still end with a 5-2-1 map but the Eastern Shore isn't stuck with a primary against an exurban Baltimore congressman but now rather has two SE bay counties that probably have more similar interests to the Eastern Shore. The Purple district is Clinton +2 btw and the red Exurban Baltimore district is Trump +20.

[lfromnj]

According to 538's Atlas of Redistricting, the most pro-D gerrymander would have all 8 districts favor Democrats, while the most pro-R gerrymander would have 4 Republican-leaning districts. If the map were drawn to be proportionally partisan and keep as many counties intact as possible, it would have 5 D-leaning districts and 3 R-leaning districts (with one of them being a swing district).

I personally would take the 5D-3R map in exchange for other states squeezing in more D-leaning districts.

FPTP voting doesn't go with proportional representation. a fair maryland map would be 6-2 not 5-3

Uh what? St Mary's, Calvert, And most of Anne Arrundel gets a very clean Trump +4 district.

To be fair, there's an argument that the panhandle district should go into Montgomery rather than suburban Baltimore in a fair map. Not one I necessarily agree with but it's not an illegitimate opinion.

If rural Frederick is added thats pretty fair if its mostly exurban Montgomery



Keeps COI's etc together and is quite compact, main problems are splits of Baltimore county and the green district is way too black but if needed one could just make it more ugly with the Purple district to create 2 black majority districts and it wouldn't really be breaking up COI's besides college park as its mostly just traveling around the DC beltway.

having republicans doesn't make a COI
if you shift your district populations counterclockwise then you can get districts that conform to metro areas

Isn't the non DC/non Baltimore parts of the eastern shore a reasonable COI?, tbf I think everyone can agree that a 6-2 map is fair and a 5-2-1 isn't neccesary but it could definitely work within COI. Whats your opinion of my map that crosses the Eastern shore(it only takes around 100k people from Anne Arrundel but I think it could take St charles instead?

[lfromnj]

Of come on Lfromnj. I could just as reasonably argue that this safe 7-1 map with 3 AA districts is clean and represents COIs. No fair map of Maryland has more than 1 safe GOP district and 1 swing district.

lol any fair map has 2 Safe GOP districts, now there is a question if a third swing district is warranted, you clearly and purposefully removed part of Frederick county for no reason but to add more of Montgomery in despite the fact that Frederick directly borders Western MD, one could argue perhaps it could be a swing district because understandably going into Baltimore splits three of Maryland's regions(Capital,Western, and Baltimore/Central) But if you try to create a swing district from Western MD then going to the Western shore and creating a district there is just as fair, and then finally a lean to Safe R district in Baltimore would be warranted if you don't split Baltimore exurbs.

I did make a mistake int he Southern district, it should start from Charles county rather than Calvert.

[lfromnj]

Yes IK fair districts re impossible lol! But plenty of people have talked about fair maps in Georgia etc so why can't I talk about a fair map here?
People have literally said brilliant fair map in Georgia even though its obviously going to be 10-4 or 11-3.

[lfromnj]

Yes IK fair districts re impossible lol! But plenty of people have talked about fair maps in Georgia etc so why can't I talk about a fair map here?
People have literally said brilliant fair map in Georgia even though its obviously going to be 10-4 or 11-3.

You can lol, I just saw an opportunity to post my maps.

Yeah fair enough, just see your statement as a joke now, and I agree its gonna be 7-1 or 8-0, Hogans best bet for keeping the 8th seat is probably just try to work with the black caucus for as many minority seats as possible, other than that the courts will have to do it.

[lfromnj]

Of come on Lfromnj. I could just as reasonably argue that this safe 7-1 map with 3 AA districts is clean and represents COIs. No fair map of Maryland has more than 1 safe GOP district and 1 swing district.

lol any fair map has 2 Safe GOP districts, now there is a question if a third swing district is warranted, you clearly and purposefully removed part of Frederick county for no reason but to add more of Montgomery in despite the fact that Frederick directly borders Western MD, one could argue perhaps it could be a swing district because understandably going into Baltimore splits three of Maryland's regions(Capital,Western, and Baltimore/Central) But if you try to create a swing district from Western MD then going to the Western shore and creating a district there is just as fair, and then finally a lean to Safe R district in Baltimore would be warranted if you don't split Baltimore exurbs.

I did make a mistake int he Southern district, it should start from Charles county rather than Calvert.

That Western MD District is designed to avoid splitting the 270 corridor too much, which is definitely a COI. I started out with the Inner Montgomery district and then paired Germantown/Gaithersburg/Clarksville/Urbana/Frederick, which makes a lot of sense. I added in Western MD and dropped some of rural Eastern Fredrick for population adjustment. I suppose you could do a third split of Montgomery, but there aren't a lot of ties between Montgomery and Howard. Extending from PG into Montgomery is a no-go because of the need to get 3 AA seats. Anyway, the Western MD district is safe D. However, the Anne Arundel-Baltimore County seat actually narrowly voted for Trump, so if you want to turn that into a Likely R seat you can. Anyway, this map, after establishing the 3 compact AA districts, if very COI driven and you have to start connecting Western Maryland to Baltimore (no innate ties) or get ugly with suburban/exurban Baltimore to make to safe R seats. Plus with a state as D as Maryland, you're going to get magnified majorities and that's okay, just like a fair map of Kentucky is 5R-1D.

Except Western Maryland + all of Frederick should be combined and then the best D seat you can get is a pure tossup unless you actually start gerrymandering, its perfectly reasonable to bring it into Montgomery but it should be a tossup in that scenario, magnified majorities are normal of course but theres also geographic distribution .

[lfromnj]

Theres no bridge connection for 4. Is there atleast a ferry connection? Does anyone know.

That 4th district would actually be pretty good if it at least had a bridge somewhere.

[lfromnj]

Also wtf is that md 2 . That's clearly trying to get a swing district. I thought it was safe d.

[lfromnj]

Anyway TPH this is probably the map you want thats closer to a fair map.

If one wishes they can create a compact Prince Georges and Charles County district and then one Montgomery + rest of Prince George's. The Beltway district here is 45% black which normally means black representative but its 90% D. The outer PG district is only 80% D and 56% black . Disadvantage is the quad cut of Baltimore county but 2 of those cuts are relatively small.

[lfromnj]

MD works much better with 9 districts really.
(Im not a big fan of crossing the bridge with 8 districts either but its not the worst COI if you actually have a bridge across the shore and connect it with the western shore. Will try one 9 district later.

Anyway one Western MD district, thats clearly 5 compact counties.
One eastern shore and most of Harford.
One Baltimore Exurbs +suburbs thats Lean D.

One Western shore and most of Charles thats Lean R.One PG black VRA district. One Beltway district that might function as a VRA district and one rest of MontCo. Finally one leftover Baltimore Southern suburban district.

Purple is Clinton +5 and Teal is Trump +4.

[lfromnj]

Almost all the supposed "fair" maps in this thread have intentionally drawn Republican districts.   

Yes the natural western MD district and the eastern shore district,
And then drawing a tossup in the SE.

[lfromnj]

there's no good reason to cross the bay. it's one of the most obvious natural barriers in the whole country
and there is no "demographics" argument to link the western and eastern shores lol. except maybe the republican demographic

Its not a GOP argument, I genuinely think both of these maps are acceptable but I thought crossing the bay there might be better. The only difference here is crossing the bay creates a swing district in Baltimore while this creates a swing Western shore district.( The weird yellow arm in Montgomery keeps Georgetown whole.) The actual partisan effect in either map is neglible. What a partisan decision! I made a Trump +3.5 instead of Trump +2 district.

[lfromnj]

there's no good reason to cross the bay. it's one of the most obvious natural barriers in the whole country
and there is no "demographics" argument to link the western and eastern shores lol. except maybe the republican demographic

Its not a GOP argument, I genuinely think both of these maps are acceptable but I thought crossing the bay there might be better. The only difference here is crossing the bay creates a swing district in Baltimore while this creates a swing Western shore district.( The weird yellow arm in Montgomery keeps Georgetown whole.) The actual partisan effect in either map is neglible. What a partisan decision! I made a Trump +3.5 instead of Trump +2 district.

Wowwww...remember when I (understandably) got attacked for a map with a Fairfax County quad-cut that at leas followed natural boundaries? Well, that Montgomery quad-cut is twice as bad. Also, keeping the three Southern MD Counties together is so incredibly obvious, just like keeping the Eastern Shore and the counties from Fredrick west together.

meh and if i didnt keep the quad cut you would attack me for not keeping the Beltway together or for VRA concerns. Could easily keep it to a triple cut.


Anyway there we go , Triple cut, I don't care either way tbh.

[lfromnj]

Anyway fair enough about the western shore. 

Whats everyone opinion of this map?. I triple Chopped Anne Arrundel with that small southern split to  put Maryland Boulevard (road) in the southern district. The Purple district is a bit GOP leaning at Clinton +0.2 and the blue District is Clinton +0.8. I made the map without partisan data first.

[lfromnj]

Anyone want to explain to me what's wrong with my map? It's far cleaner than any of these other fair maps and actually keeps COIs intact. 3 AA districts as well.

Remember, Silver Spring and Bethesda are at opposite ends of the red line. In DC terms, these areas are not close at all.

Just saying wouldn't it be better to split Howard county NE/SW as its kind of a mixed county between DC and Baltimore if you have to split it anyway?

[lfromnj]

Btw Ik Annapolis and Dundalk are both heavily based of a ship industry.  I just wanted to see what happens if we divided the Baltimore metro based on one Baltimore main seat, one inland suburban and one more coastal suburban.

However the split of Baltimore city itself does not look very nice and I am not a big fan of this because of that. What does everyone think of that method.(Oh also ignore the border gore between the last 2 districts in DC)

[lfromnj]

Anyone want to explain to me what's wrong with my map? It's far cleaner than any of these other fair maps and actually keeps COIs intact. 3 AA districts as well.

Remember, Silver Spring and Bethesda are at opposite ends of the red line. In DC terms, these areas are not close at all.

maybe it’s a matter of personal preference, but i’d shift 6-2-8 clockwise. carroll county is technically in the baltimore area but it’s relatively rural and remote and consists of a lot of farmland, so i think it’s a better fit with frederick county than the baltimore suburbs. a good chunk of CD6 isn’t even in the washington area (hagerstown and westward) so it’s fairly reasonable to include carroll. this would also shift howard out of CD8 and keep moco more intact; i think that‘s more desirable if we’re concerned about separating the washington and baltimore metro areas

if you do that our maps are virtually the same lol

I put Frederick with Germantown because they are pretty closely tied and basically for the same reasons as Blairite's map below your post. I don't consider "rural whites" to be a COI that necessitates crossing metropolitan lines. Also, what that does to Howard is pretty messy. I'll take a look at your map.

well i actually think urban vs. rural is a significant dichotomy! especially since lots of gerrymandering is based in putting those two types of communities together. but my main point is that it's not really possible to not keep all baltimore and washington communities separate. my take is that crossing those lines in a relatively rural county is better than doing it in an urban area i.e. putting moco and hoco together (i think your 8th district stretches from bethesda to ellicott city, each of which is unequivocally in their respective metro areas)

yeah lol at rural areas not being a COI especially within a compact area!

Tbh I now agree that a southern MD district makes more sense by doing some research. The western MD district should go to Carrol due to the more ruralness(All that district does is create a dicotohomy between some suburban Democrat from George town or a Rural Republican From Oakland both of which have nothing in common and one area of the district would be neglected. Anyway any comments on my coastal suburban Baltimore district vs inland one?

[lfromnj]

You can plainly see the Germantown-Frederick-Hagerstown corridor. How does Carroll tie into that? It really doesn't.

Sure but 1/3 of Frederick is still pretty rural and the whole western 3 counties are definitely rural which fits in better with Carrol.

[lfromnj]

Anyway whats your opinion of the coastal Baltimore district?

[lfromnj]

Hogan's "commision" is cute and powerless as Tony Ever's commision

[lfromnj]

Pretty incredible how blue Maryland has gotten in that you don’t even need to gerrymander to make MD-06 a safe D seat. Frederick County should be left whole and then give the leftovers to Montgomery.

More like Likely D?

It would be like Biden +7 right?

[lfromnj]

Ahahaa, my childhood home just narrowly missed being in the new MD-01. Just a couple precincts away, comfortably sandwiched between, checks notes, Washington DC and Andy Harris. Yikes.

What is the likely trend for this district over the next 10 years? The way Frederick County seems to be going, a Lean Dem seat by 2026-2028?

Frederick County isn't in the district. Anne Arrundel's trend is clear. I am wondering if there was a bit of a Biden  Delaware effect in some of the Eastern Shore and a temporary military swing in Southern Harford. Overall a Dem trend.

[lfromnj]

https://www.marylandmatters.org/2022/02/11/court-of-appeals-extends-candidate-filing-deadline-amid-challenges-to-legislative-map/

[lfromnj]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/maryland-state-court-deny-motion-dccc-intervent-gerrymander

DCCC not allowed to help defend the Maryland redistricting case. I think it goes to trial next week in the Anne Arundel court