2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Maryland
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  2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Maryland
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Oryxslayer
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« on: November 08, 2019, 11:43:54 AM »
« edited: November 16, 2019, 08:46:04 AM by Oryxslayer »

Maryland

Ah Maryland, the home of the unnecessary gerrymander. Since 2000 the map here has been more a Rorschach Test than 8 districts, even though far cleaner maps could produce the same results. Maryland has two ‘issues’ that have led to here lines. The first is that powerful dems have held seats here for a long time building up seniority, committee seats, and authority over the state legislature. Their demands cannot be ignored without serious justification. The second issue is that a lot of incumbents live next to each other in Baltimore’s north suburbs, and everyone wants their homes in their district. The Democratic supermajority in the legislature is locked in till 2022, but if they are unable to coalesce around a single map then the powerless Governor Hogan may be able to wield more authority than the parliamentary arithmetic seems to allow.

Redistricting History


Maryland Congressional Districts 1990-2000, Wikipedia

Maryland politics is unavoidably tied to its lines so we have to go all the way back to 2000. Going into the 2000 redistrict, democrats and republicans tied the state 4-4 with fairly reasonable lines. However, the democratic Trifecta sensed blood in the water and moved to draw away at least one republican. Connie Morella in Montgomery lost the reddest parts of her seat and got the Blue inner suburbs and stretched into Prince George. Then they went for the kill on Bob Ehrlich’s old Harford County centered 2nd, transforming it into the squiggly mess we all know, a mess drawn precisely to (at the time) Baltimore County executive Ruppersberger’s specifications. Both seats flipped blue in 2002, but the decision to put Ehrlich out of pointed him towards the Governor’s office. Sure, he lost in 2006, but that occurrence is a mark against the 2000 map. In 2008 Frank Kratovil picked up a 1-term rental on the 1st, facilitated by a conservative primary that ousted the long-term incumbent in favor of future Rep Andy Harris. That race featured stark polarization with Kratovil winning every county on the shore, with Harris dominating the suburban side, a divide that would influence the 2010 iteration of the seat. Harris came back in 2010, meaning that the 2010 democratic trifecta had 6 Dems and 2 GOP representatives to appease.


Maryland Congressional Districts 2000-2010, Wikipedia

Of course, its never was to be that simple. Each incumbent had demands: Harris wanted more of his base in the Suburbs, Ruppersberger wanted two military bases on either side of Baltimore in one seat, Sarbanes wanted to touch the all three major urban metros so that he could have a profile for a statewide run, Edwards wanted more Montgomery white dems in her AA seat to avoid a primary, Hoyer wanted his base in multiethnic north PG to be in his South MD seat, Bartlett just wanted to have a Red seat, Cummings wanted as much BVAP as possible, and only Van Hollen didn’t place a personal demand, in part because his 8th had gotten far more blue since it had ben drawn to oust its old GOP rep, and was fated to get carved up. The legislature, valuing seniority within it’s dem caucus, ignored Edward’s demands and then shifted the lines between the 6th and the 8th so that both were now blue. In order to appease everyone though the map ended up in its disgusting present form.


Maryland Congressional Districts since 2010, Wikipedia


Since the 2011 Redistricting


The 2010 lines, despite their squiggles, survived multiple retirements, primaries, and a GOP wave. The 7-1 divide kept coming back, even when Delaney got a momentary scare during his 2014 reelection. More important considering the future of the state though is who is making up the 7-1. Van Drew won the senate seat, and was succeeded by Raskin. Delaney decided to be Don Quixote and was succeeded by Trone. Edwards lost the senate primary and was replaced by Brown. Cummings passed away and the seat is presently open. Even Hoyer faces a potential primary from a progressive AA resident who looks to replicate AOC’s magic. Essentially, everyone not from the Baltimore suburbs has been or might be replaced in the period since 2010, removing their potential sway over the legislature’s maps.

2021

Which will have more sway: 8-0 or 7-1 with 3rd AA seat? Both are easily possible when accommodating for Hoyer and Ruppersberger’s demands, and the Dem legislature wishes to come together to prevent the third outcome: 6-2 handed down from Hogan.

The most likely outcome in my eyes is a third AA seat (with 7-1), so let’s discuss its potential first. Even with the Baltimore AA communities decline, the DC suburbs have easily put the state on their back and kept up the AA growth. The old DC Northeast is continuing to all to happily move out to PG and Charles suburbs while cashing in on the booming DC housing market for their old townhouses. Cummings’s death also makes 3 AA seats far more feasible – the guy still held old-school views on his district’s demographics. In 2000 and in 2010 he fought precinct by precinct for the African American seats, ensuring that AA voters would always have sizable majorities in their representative seats.  If Hoyer isn’t going to be around in 2022 (loses 2020 primary, or retires in 2022), then drawing a third AA seat becomes comparatively simple. One no longer is ‘wasting’ AA precincts to preserve the safety of Hoyer’s seat, and one can pack the red rural counties (where Hoyer lives) into the AA seats. If Hoyer is going to be around then things get far more complex, with his district becoming something like a weird squiggle if all demands are accepted:


A Hoyer seat going from his home in the south to his base in North PG

Why is this most likely in my eyes? Well, along with the already stated growth and the Cummings issue, there is the issue of legislative captivity. The African American Caucus here is very powerful, it got control of the Speakership with Adrienne Jones last year. She won the speakership by dividing the democratic base, won the support of the emasculated state GOP, and then got her democrat opponents to bow out before they divided the state party. In many ways, the AA caucus could do the exact same thing: if the state Dems refuse to do 7-1 with 3 AA seats, then the GOP and Hogan will be happy to offer them a third AA seat for 6-2. The Dem party desires to avoid this outcome at all possible, so if the AA caucus pushes for a third seat, then the party may just end up acquiescing. Sarbanes’s seat is an ideal target for becoming the new AA seat, as he right now has first right of refusal on the gubernatorial race, and could easily be pushed for it or Cardin’s seat.

Next potential outcome: 8-0. Now, I suspect everyone here has seen Daily Kos’s map on how the dems could get away with a cleaner 8-0 map when compared to the mess that is the current 7-1. Once again, with Cummings’s passing 8-0 becomes more feasible since AA voters are now more usable, and Baltimore potentially has AAs to give to the eastern shore depending on how the lines shape up. Similar to the AA map, pushing Sarbanes for statewide frees up space for a seat to cross the Chesapeake at the Bay Bridge to Annapolis.

Final outcome: 6-2. This requires a few things to go in Hogan’s favor, but at least the GOP has a seat at the table this time around. Hogan has continued to support fair districts reform in the state because anything, which is what fair redistricting would entail, is better than nothing for the MD GOP. First, if the main dem party refuses to give into the AA caucus like I alluded to earlier, than the GOP would be all to happy to give Trone the axe in exchange for a third AA seat. This sort of deal would be similar to what happens in deep southern states where the AA minority caucus makes deals with the majority GOP caucus to throw the white dems under the bus – only the traditional roles are reversed. Another potential way 6-2 occurs is if fair redistricting is implemented in some fashion: either through law, through the legislature listening to the governor’s specialists, or through a legislature with the knowledge that they barely survived a legal challenge this cycle. Unlike in the other two maps, 6-2 does not require Sarbanes moving statewide, though it would certainly help clean up the lines between DC and Baltimore.

What’s left to decide

Who’s going to hold what seat is the only question left to be answered. Cummings’s seat is open, and the successor may or may not view redistricting the same way as him. Hoyer is also a wildcard on whether he survives a progressive primary looking to take down the inflexible old guard.
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TML
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« Reply #1 on: November 09, 2019, 12:34:13 AM »

According to 538's Atlas of Redistricting, the most pro-D gerrymander would have all 8 districts favor Democrats, while the most pro-R gerrymander would have 4 Republican-leaning districts. If the map were drawn to be proportionally partisan and keep as many counties intact as possible, it would have 5 D-leaning districts and 3 R-leaning districts (with one of them being a swing district).

I personally would take the 5D-3R map in exchange for other states squeezing in more D-leaning districts.
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cvparty
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« Reply #2 on: November 09, 2019, 04:33:53 AM »

According to 538's Atlas of Redistricting, the most pro-D gerrymander would have all 8 districts favor Democrats, while the most pro-R gerrymander would have 4 Republican-leaning districts. If the map were drawn to be proportionally partisan and keep as many counties intact as possible, it would have 5 D-leaning districts and 3 R-leaning districts (with one of them being a swing district).

I personally would take the 5D-3R map in exchange for other states squeezing in more D-leaning districts.
FPTP voting doesn't go with proportional representation. a fair maryland map would be 6-2 not 5-3
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #3 on: November 09, 2019, 03:52:30 PM »

According to 538's Atlas of Redistricting, the most pro-D gerrymander would have all 8 districts favor Democrats, while the most pro-R gerrymander would have 4 Republican-leaning districts. If the map were drawn to be proportionally partisan and keep as many counties intact as possible, it would have 5 D-leaning districts and 3 R-leaning districts (with one of them being a swing district).

I personally would take the 5D-3R map in exchange for other states squeezing in more D-leaning districts.

Now that they are assured of controlling the process in 2021, I really like the idea of Maryland/Virginia Dems doing a "we'll pass an independent redistricting reform constitutional amendment if at least 2 large-ish Republican trifecta states that require legislative action for a constitutional referendum do the same".  Looking at you GA/TX/TN/SC.
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« Reply #4 on: May 05, 2020, 10:05:09 PM »

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::b066d602-6593-4e45-ab7b-81f0c5ce6561

Look at this monstrosity: All incumbent's homes are protected within districts, all at least Clinton +16, three African-American seats, and contiguous by water.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #5 on: May 05, 2020, 10:15:16 PM »

According to 538's Atlas of Redistricting, the most pro-D gerrymander would have all 8 districts favor Democrats, while the most pro-R gerrymander would have 4 Republican-leaning districts. If the map were drawn to be proportionally partisan and keep as many counties intact as possible, it would have 5 D-leaning districts and 3 R-leaning districts (with one of them being a swing district).

I personally would take the 5D-3R map in exchange for other states squeezing in more D-leaning districts.
FPTP voting doesn't go with proportional representation. a fair maryland map would be 6-2 not 5-3

Uh what? St Mary's, Calvert, And most of Anne Arrundel gets a very clean Trump +4 district.
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Sol
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« Reply #6 on: May 05, 2020, 10:19:20 PM »

According to 538's Atlas of Redistricting, the most pro-D gerrymander would have all 8 districts favor Democrats, while the most pro-R gerrymander would have 4 Republican-leaning districts. If the map were drawn to be proportionally partisan and keep as many counties intact as possible, it would have 5 D-leaning districts and 3 R-leaning districts (with one of them being a swing district).

I personally would take the 5D-3R map in exchange for other states squeezing in more D-leaning districts.
FPTP voting doesn't go with proportional representation. a fair maryland map would be 6-2 not 5-3

Uh what? St Mary's, Calvert, And most of Anne Arrundel gets a very clean Trump +4 district.

To be fair, there's an argument that the panhandle district should go into Montgomery rather than suburban Baltimore in a fair map. Not one I necessarily agree with but it's not an illegitimate opinion.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #7 on: May 05, 2020, 10:24:47 PM »
« Edited: May 05, 2020, 10:42:36 PM by lfromnj »

According to 538's Atlas of Redistricting, the most pro-D gerrymander would have all 8 districts favor Democrats, while the most pro-R gerrymander would have 4 Republican-leaning districts. If the map were drawn to be proportionally partisan and keep as many counties intact as possible, it would have 5 D-leaning districts and 3 R-leaning districts (with one of them being a swing district).

I personally would take the 5D-3R map in exchange for other states squeezing in more D-leaning districts.
FPTP voting doesn't go with proportional representation. a fair maryland map would be 6-2 not 5-3

Uh what? St Mary's, Calvert, And most of Anne Arrundel gets a very clean Trump +4 district.

To be fair, there's an argument that the panhandle district should go into Montgomery rather than suburban Baltimore in a fair map. Not one I necessarily agree with but it's not an illegitimate opinion.

If rural Frederick is added thats pretty fair if its mostly exurban Montgomery



Keeps COI's etc together and is quite compact, main problems are splits of Baltimore county and the green district is way too black but if needed one could just make it more ugly with the Purple district to create 2 black majority districts and it wouldn't really be breaking up COI's besides college park as its mostly just traveling around the DC beltway.

Hmm im thinking if you want your Montgomery district


This you still end with a 5-2-1 map but the Eastern Shore isn't stuck with a primary against an exurban Baltimore congressman but now rather has two SE bay counties that probably have more similar interests to the Eastern Shore. The Purple district is Clinton +2 btw and the red Exurban Baltimore district is Trump +20.
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cvparty
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« Reply #8 on: May 05, 2020, 10:39:51 PM »

According to 538's Atlas of Redistricting, the most pro-D gerrymander would have all 8 districts favor Democrats, while the most pro-R gerrymander would have 4 Republican-leaning districts. If the map were drawn to be proportionally partisan and keep as many counties intact as possible, it would have 5 D-leaning districts and 3 R-leaning districts (with one of them being a swing district).

I personally would take the 5D-3R map in exchange for other states squeezing in more D-leaning districts.
FPTP voting doesn't go with proportional representation. a fair maryland map would be 6-2 not 5-3

Uh what? St Mary's, Calvert, And most of Anne Arrundel gets a very clean Trump +4 district.

To be fair, there's an argument that the panhandle district should go into Montgomery rather than suburban Baltimore in a fair map. Not one I necessarily agree with but it's not an illegitimate opinion.

If rural Frederick is added thats pretty fair if its mostly exurban Montgomery



Keeps COI's etc together and is quite compact, main problems are splits of Baltimore county and the green district is way too black but if needed one could just make it more ugly with the Purple district to create 2 black majority districts and it wouldn't really be breaking up COI's besides college park as its mostly just traveling around the DC beltway.
having republicans doesn't make a COI
if you shift your district populations counterclockwise then you can get districts that conform to metro areas
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lfromnj
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« Reply #9 on: May 05, 2020, 10:46:35 PM »

According to 538's Atlas of Redistricting, the most pro-D gerrymander would have all 8 districts favor Democrats, while the most pro-R gerrymander would have 4 Republican-leaning districts. If the map were drawn to be proportionally partisan and keep as many counties intact as possible, it would have 5 D-leaning districts and 3 R-leaning districts (with one of them being a swing district).

I personally would take the 5D-3R map in exchange for other states squeezing in more D-leaning districts.
FPTP voting doesn't go with proportional representation. a fair maryland map would be 6-2 not 5-3

Uh what? St Mary's, Calvert, And most of Anne Arrundel gets a very clean Trump +4 district.

To be fair, there's an argument that the panhandle district should go into Montgomery rather than suburban Baltimore in a fair map. Not one I necessarily agree with but it's not an illegitimate opinion.

If rural Frederick is added thats pretty fair if its mostly exurban Montgomery



Keeps COI's etc together and is quite compact, main problems are splits of Baltimore county and the green district is way too black but if needed one could just make it more ugly with the Purple district to create 2 black majority districts and it wouldn't really be breaking up COI's besides college park as its mostly just traveling around the DC beltway.
having republicans doesn't make a COI
if you shift your district populations counterclockwise then you can get districts that conform to metro areas

Isn't the non DC/non Baltimore parts of the eastern shore a reasonable COI?, tbf I think everyone can agree that a 6-2 map is fair and a 5-2-1 isn't neccesary but it could definitely work within COI. Whats your opinion of my map that crosses the Eastern shore(it only takes around 100k people from Anne Arrundel but I think it could take St charles instead?
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #10 on: May 06, 2020, 12:01:20 AM »

Of come on Lfromnj. I could just as reasonably argue that this safe 7-1 map with 3 AA districts is clean and represents COIs. No fair map of Maryland has more than 1 safe GOP district and 1 swing district.

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cvparty
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« Reply #11 on: May 06, 2020, 12:48:08 AM »

According to 538's Atlas of Redistricting, the most pro-D gerrymander would have all 8 districts favor Democrats, while the most pro-R gerrymander would have 4 Republican-leaning districts. If the map were drawn to be proportionally partisan and keep as many counties intact as possible, it would have 5 D-leaning districts and 3 R-leaning districts (with one of them being a swing district).

I personally would take the 5D-3R map in exchange for other states squeezing in more D-leaning districts.
FPTP voting doesn't go with proportional representation. a fair maryland map would be 6-2 not 5-3

Uh what? St Mary's, Calvert, And most of Anne Arrundel gets a very clean Trump +4 district.

To be fair, there's an argument that the panhandle district should go into Montgomery rather than suburban Baltimore in a fair map. Not one I necessarily agree with but it's not an illegitimate opinion.

If rural Frederick is added thats pretty fair if its mostly exurban Montgomery



Keeps COI's etc together and is quite compact, main problems are splits of Baltimore county and the green district is way too black but if needed one could just make it more ugly with the Purple district to create 2 black majority districts and it wouldn't really be breaking up COI's besides college park as its mostly just traveling around the DC beltway.
having republicans doesn't make a COI
if you shift your district populations counterclockwise then you can get districts that conform to metro areas

Isn't the non DC/non Baltimore parts of the eastern shore a reasonable COI?, tbf I think everyone can agree that a 6-2 map is fair and a 5-2-1 isn't neccesary but it could definitely work within COI. Whats your opinion of my map that crosses the Eastern shore(it only takes around 100k people from Anne Arrundel but I think it could take St charles instead?
um 90% of MD is in either the baltimore or washington area, it’s impossible to make a non-metro district. anne arundel belongs to the former and calvert the latter. the map you have is just a strange configuration and comes with many issues. if the green district is too black why not have it take in calvert/st. mary’s, which would represent an actual COI (southern MD). I for one have never seen a montgomery-howard-anne arundel district in a fair map
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #12 on: May 06, 2020, 01:04:13 AM »

Of come on Lfromnj. I could just as reasonably argue that this safe 7-1 map with 3 AA districts is clean and represents COIs. No fair map of Maryland has more than 1 safe GOP district and 1 swing district.



How many incumbents does the leave outside their districts? That is a very nice-looking map.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #13 on: May 06, 2020, 01:13:11 AM »

Of come on Lfromnj. I could just as reasonably argue that this safe 7-1 map with 3 AA districts is clean and represents COIs. No fair map of Maryland has more than 1 safe GOP district and 1 swing district.



How many incumbents does the leave outside their districts? That is a very nice-looking map.

Thank you. It leaves Harris out of his district (so MD Dems don't care), allows Ruppersberger to take over the grey district, gives Brown the red district, and leaves Hoyer in the yellow southern district. However, it forces Sarbanes and Mfume into the Baltimore district and Raskin and Trone into the purple district. The Anne Arundel-Baltimore County doesn't have an obvious rep although Sarbanes could carpetbag over there easily enough and Trone could go for the Fredrick-Hagerstown district. That said, this is a 6-1-1 map (Anne Arundel-Baltimore County is a tossup) so MD Dems obviously wouldn't go for it.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #14 on: May 06, 2020, 10:39:33 AM »
« Edited: May 06, 2020, 10:47:44 AM by lfromnj »

Of come on Lfromnj. I could just as reasonably argue that this safe 7-1 map with 3 AA districts is clean and represents COIs. No fair map of Maryland has more than 1 safe GOP district and 1 swing district.



lol any fair map has 2 Safe GOP districts, now there is a question if a third swing district is warranted, you clearly and purposefully removed part of Frederick county for no reason but to add more of Montgomery in despite the fact that Frederick directly borders Western MD, one could argue perhaps it could be a swing district because understandably going into Baltimore splits three of Maryland's regions(Capital,Western, and Baltimore/Central) But if you try to create a swing district from Western MD then going to the Western shore and creating a district there is just as fair, and then finally a lean to Safe R district in Baltimore would be warranted if you don't split Baltimore exurbs.

I did make a mistake int he Southern district, it should start from Charles county rather than Calvert.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #15 on: May 06, 2020, 10:52:39 AM »

The Maryland Democratic Party cares not about your talk of fair districts. Especially not if Ruppersberger wants to keep his twin military bases and Hoyer gets his seat that can survive AA primary challengers thanks to his strength in the north PG area.

8-0


7-1 with 3 AAs

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lfromnj
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« Reply #16 on: May 06, 2020, 11:01:53 AM »
« Edited: May 06, 2020, 11:30:22 AM by lfromnj »

Yes IK fair districts re impossible lol! But plenty of people have talked about fair maps in Georgia etc so why can't I talk about a fair map here?
People have literally said brilliant fair map in Georgia even though its obviously going to be 10-4 or 11-3.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #17 on: May 06, 2020, 11:07:41 AM »
« Edited: May 06, 2020, 11:10:54 AM by Gass3268 »

The Maryland Democratic Party cares not about your talk of fair districts. Especially not if Ruppersberger wants to keep his twin military bases and Hoyer gets his seat that can survive AA primary challengers thanks to his strength in the north PG area.

8-0


7-1 with 3 AAs



The main concern for the state Democrats has to be the State Supreme Court is now majority Republican. The legislature should look into stripping redistricting from the court's jurisdiction.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #18 on: May 06, 2020, 11:26:14 AM »

Nice job on the first one utilizing the Eastern Shore black population in the black districts.

I feel like you should be able to create an 8-0 map with three majority black VAP seats - just a matter of making Steny Hoyer unhappy about the black population in his district.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #19 on: May 06, 2020, 11:59:13 AM »

Yes IK fair districts re impossible lol! But plenty of people have talked about fair maps in Georgia etc so why can't I talk about a fair map here?
People have literally said brilliant fair map in Georgia even though its obviously going to be 10-4 or 11-3.

You can lol, I just saw an opportunity to post my maps.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #20 on: May 06, 2020, 12:03:13 PM »

Yes IK fair districts re impossible lol! But plenty of people have talked about fair maps in Georgia etc so why can't I talk about a fair map here?
People have literally said brilliant fair map in Georgia even though its obviously going to be 10-4 or 11-3.

You can lol, I just saw an opportunity to post my maps.

Yeah fair enough, just see your statement as a joke now, and I agree its gonna be 7-1 or 8-0, Hogans best bet for keeping the 8th seat is probably just try to work with the black caucus for as many minority seats as possible, other than that the courts will have to do it.
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« Reply #21 on: May 06, 2020, 01:24:05 PM »

Of come on Lfromnj. I could just as reasonably argue that this safe 7-1 map with 3 AA districts is clean and represents COIs. No fair map of Maryland has more than 1 safe GOP district and 1 swing district.



lol any fair map has 2 Safe GOP districts, now there is a question if a third swing district is warranted, you clearly and purposefully removed part of Frederick county for no reason but to add more of Montgomery in despite the fact that Frederick directly borders Western MD, one could argue perhaps it could be a swing district because understandably going into Baltimore splits three of Maryland's regions(Capital,Western, and Baltimore/Central) But if you try to create a swing district from Western MD then going to the Western shore and creating a district there is just as fair, and then finally a lean to Safe R district in Baltimore would be warranted if you don't split Baltimore exurbs.

I did make a mistake int he Southern district, it should start from Charles county rather than Calvert.
That Western MD District is designed to avoid splitting the 270 corridor too much, which is definitely a COI. I started out with the Inner Montgomery district and then paired Germantown/Gaithersburg/Clarksville/Urbana/Frederick, which makes a lot of sense. I added in Western MD and dropped some of rural Eastern Fredrick for population adjustment. I suppose you could do a third split of Montgomery, but there aren't a lot of ties between Montgomery and Howard. Extending from PG into Montgomery is a no-go because of the need to get 3 AA seats. Anyway, the Western MD district is safe D. However, the Anne Arundel-Baltimore County seat actually narrowly voted for Trump, so if you want to turn that into a Likely R seat you can. Anyway, this map, after establishing the 3 compact AA districts, if very COI driven and you have to start connecting Western Maryland to Baltimore (no innate ties) or get ugly with suburban/exurban Baltimore to make to safe R seats. Plus with a state as D as Maryland, you're going to get magnified majorities and that's okay, just like a fair map of Kentucky is 5R-1D.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #22 on: May 06, 2020, 01:27:57 PM »

Of come on Lfromnj. I could just as reasonably argue that this safe 7-1 map with 3 AA districts is clean and represents COIs. No fair map of Maryland has more than 1 safe GOP district and 1 swing district.



lol any fair map has 2 Safe GOP districts, now there is a question if a third swing district is warranted, you clearly and purposefully removed part of Frederick county for no reason but to add more of Montgomery in despite the fact that Frederick directly borders Western MD, one could argue perhaps it could be a swing district because understandably going into Baltimore splits three of Maryland's regions(Capital,Western, and Baltimore/Central) But if you try to create a swing district from Western MD then going to the Western shore and creating a district there is just as fair, and then finally a lean to Safe R district in Baltimore would be warranted if you don't split Baltimore exurbs.

I did make a mistake int he Southern district, it should start from Charles county rather than Calvert.
That Western MD District is designed to avoid splitting the 270 corridor too much, which is definitely a COI. I started out with the Inner Montgomery district and then paired Germantown/Gaithersburg/Clarksville/Urbana/Frederick, which makes a lot of sense. I added in Western MD and dropped some of rural Eastern Fredrick for population adjustment. I suppose you could do a third split of Montgomery, but there aren't a lot of ties between Montgomery and Howard. Extending from PG into Montgomery is a no-go because of the need to get 3 AA seats. Anyway, the Western MD district is safe D. However, the Anne Arundel-Baltimore County seat actually narrowly voted for Trump, so if you want to turn that into a Likely R seat you can. Anyway, this map, after establishing the 3 compact AA districts, if very COI driven and you have to start connecting Western Maryland to Baltimore (no innate ties) or get ugly with suburban/exurban Baltimore to make to safe R seats. Plus with a state as D as Maryland, you're going to get magnified majorities and that's okay, just like a fair map of Kentucky is 5R-1D.

Except Western Maryland + all of Frederick should be combined and then the best D seat you can get is a pure tossup unless you actually start gerrymandering, its perfectly reasonable to bring it into Montgomery but it should be a tossup in that scenario, magnified majorities are normal of course but theres also geographic distribution .
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #23 on: May 06, 2020, 01:31:52 PM »

Of come on Lfromnj. I could just as reasonably argue that this safe 7-1 map with 3 AA districts is clean and represents COIs. No fair map of Maryland has more than 1 safe GOP district and 1 swing district.



lol any fair map has 2 Safe GOP districts, now there is a question if a third swing district is warranted, you clearly and purposefully removed part of Frederick county for no reason but to add more of Montgomery in despite the fact that Frederick directly borders Western MD, one could argue perhaps it could be a swing district because understandably going into Baltimore splits three of Maryland's regions(Capital,Western, and Baltimore/Central) But if you try to create a swing district from Western MD then going to the Western shore and creating a district there is just as fair, and then finally a lean to Safe R district in Baltimore would be warranted if you don't split Baltimore exurbs.

I did make a mistake int he Southern district, it should start from Charles county rather than Calvert.
That Western MD District is designed to avoid splitting the 270 corridor too much, which is definitely a COI. I started out with the Inner Montgomery district and then paired Germantown/Gaithersburg/Clarksville/Urbana/Frederick, which makes a lot of sense. I added in Western MD and dropped some of rural Eastern Fredrick for population adjustment. I suppose you could do a third split of Montgomery, but there aren't a lot of ties between Montgomery and Howard. Extending from PG into Montgomery is a no-go because of the need to get 3 AA seats. Anyway, the Western MD district is safe D. However, the Anne Arundel-Baltimore County seat actually narrowly voted for Trump, so if you want to turn that into a Likely R seat you can. Anyway, this map, after establishing the 3 compact AA districts, if very COI driven and you have to start connecting Western Maryland to Baltimore (no innate ties) or get ugly with suburban/exurban Baltimore to make to safe R seats. Plus with a state as D as Maryland, you're going to get magnified majorities and that's okay, just like a fair map of Kentucky is 5R-1D.

Except Western Maryland + all of Frederick should be combined and then the best D seat you can get is a pure tossup unless you actually start gerrymandering, its perfectly reasonable to bring it into Montgomery but it should be a tossup in that scenario, magnified majorities are normal of course but theres also geographic distribution .

If you do that, you have to do a tri-cut of Montgomery and there isn't an obvious place to do that from without tearing up Montgomery COIs though. The numbers, unfortunately, don't work themselves out all that cleanly.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #24 on: May 06, 2020, 05:02:46 PM »

I do wonder if the various asks from the congressmembers are going to be as difficult to satisfy this time round.

Hoyer is likely to be out of Congress within 5 years and as everybody knows this, not many black politicians are going to want to challenge him in a primary and burn any establishment support for the next decade.

If Sarbanes is ever going to go statewide, he needs to do it soon or he'll be yesterday's news (arguably, he already is.) If he no longer has statewide ambitions, he's not going to care about having a foothold in multiple media markets.

And Brown has much less to fear from a primary challenge than Edwards did.
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