2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Maryland

[GALeftist]

It would be really nice if they sniped that dude's district.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Has anyone made an 8-0 map?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Has anyone made an 8-0 map?

Many have.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

It would be really nice if they sniped that dude's district.

I would be tempted to crack his district on general principle if I was in the state legislature and heard his inane request.

[Sol]

Here's a Republican court-drawn fair map, in the vein of PA.



link

Is pretty much a 5-3 map, though MD-02 is maybe on the edge of competitiveness, and MD-08 could maybe move Dem considering it has a nonzero chunk of Montgomery.

It has 3 Black majority seats, including CVAP--3, 5, and 6.

I also figured the MDSC might renumber districts too, so I did that.

Don't actually think this is the optimal map--rather it's intended as a hypothetical court map.

[cvparty]

Here's a Republican court-drawn fair map, in the vein of PA.



link

Is pretty much a 5-3 map, though MD-02 is maybe on the edge of competitiveness, and MD-08 could maybe move Dem considering it has a nonzero chunk of Montgomery.

Don't actually think this is the optimal map--rather it's intended as a hypothetical court map.

biden would have carried CD2 and come within about a point of CD8, so it's more like a 5-2-1 map

[Sol]

Here's a Republican court-drawn fair map, in the vein of PA.



link

Is pretty much a 5-3 map, though MD-02 is maybe on the edge of competitiveness, and MD-08 could maybe move Dem considering it has a nonzero chunk of Montgomery.

Don't actually think this is the optimal map--rather it's intended as a hypothetical court map.

biden would have carried CD2 and come within about a point of CD8, so it's more like a 5-2-1 map

Ah that's good to know--curious where you got your data?

I might post a revised version with that in mind which shores up the 8th.

[cvparty]

Here's a Republican court-drawn fair map, in the vein of PA.



link

Is pretty much a 5-3 map, though MD-02 is maybe on the edge of competitiveness, and MD-08 could maybe move Dem considering it has a nonzero chunk of Montgomery.

Don't actually think this is the optimal map--rather it's intended as a hypothetical court map.

biden would have carried CD2 and come within about a point of CD8, so it's more like a 5-2-1 map

Ah that's good to know--curious where you got your data?

I might post a revised version with that in mind which shores up the 8th.

I've drawn hypothetical fair maps for 2022 and individually calculated the Trump vs. Biden numbers from precinct results (going to post a map series soon) but for my MD map, my panhandle district is about 90% the same as yours and went from Trump +13 to Trump +4; if you extrapolate, then your district would have gone from Trump +11 to about Trump +2

p.s. shoring up that district is going to require staying out of moco entirely, taking in all of carroll, and taking in northern baltimore co., at which point it's straying a bit out of "fair map" territory

[Sol]

Here's a redraw, with the 8th and 2nd getting more R (though idk exactly how the 2nd voted in 2020.)



link

The 6th is now only plurality Black, though it could easily be redrawn I figured I'd go with the nicer looking shape since this is supposed to be a fair map. Hoyer's district is now very Black.

[cvparty]

2nd still would have voted for biden by a few points. there's just not enough republican turf anymore to create three R-leaning districts, unless you're willing to take in st. mary's and/or cross the chesapeake (at which point it's just an outright hardcore R gerrymander)

[Sol]

That's fine.

I'm doubtful of lasting Dem strength in a lot of the heavily ex-military sections of Anne Arundel in any case.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Made an 8-0 map. It assumes Hoyer retires and Sarbanes gets over his media market fetish but otherwise puts every incumbent in their own Trump <40% district. There are three VRA seats. Without Hoyer and Harris, MD-03 and MD-08 are vacant.

[SevenEleven]

Made an 8-0 map. It assumes Hoyer retires and Sarbanes gets over his media market fetish but otherwise puts every incumbent in their own Trump <40% district. There are three VRA seats. Without Hoyer and Harris, MD-03 and MD-08 are vacant.

Do you think this map can elect four black Democrats?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Made an 8-0 map. It assumes Hoyer retires and Sarbanes gets over his media market fetish but otherwise puts every incumbent in their own Trump <40% district. There are three VRA seats. Without Hoyer and Harris, MD-03 and MD-08 are vacant.

Do you think this map can elect four black Democrats?

Maybe. MD-08 is about 50% white, 30% black. That would definitely be the most likely seat. (This presumes Hoyer's MD-03 seat goes to an AA Dem after he retires.)

[SevenEleven]

Made an 8-0 map. It assumes Hoyer retires and Sarbanes gets over his media market fetish but otherwise puts every incumbent in their own Trump <40% district. There are three VRA seats. Without Hoyer and Harris, MD-03 and MD-08 are vacant.

Do you think this map can elect four black Democrats?

Maybe. MD-08 is about 50% white, 30% black. That would definitely be the most likely seat. (This presumes Hoyer's MD-03 seat goes to an AA Dem after he retires.)

What about MD-04?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Made an 8-0 map. It assumes Hoyer retires and Sarbanes gets over his media market fetish but otherwise puts every incumbent in their own Trump <40% district. There are three VRA seats. Without Hoyer and Harris, MD-03 and MD-08 are vacant.

Do you think this map can elect four black Democrats?

Maybe. MD-08 is about 50% white, 30% black. That would definitely be the most likely seat. (This presumes Hoyer's MD-03 seat goes to an AA Dem after he retires.)

What about MD-04?

That's one of the 3 AA VRA seats (along with MD-03 and MD-07.)

[lfromnj]

Hogan's "commision" is cute and powerless as Tony Ever's commision

[ChineseConservative]

Just discovered this website a week ago. Making first post!
How is that the Democrats have full control of the redistricting process in Maryland when the State Supreme Court is a Republican majority? Couldn't the court just overturn an extreme 8-0 Democratic Gerrymander and replace it with a balanced 5-2-1 like the liberal state supreme courts did in Florida and Pennsylvania to GOP gerrymanders?

[CityofSinners]

Just discovered this website a week ago. Making first post!
How is that the Democrats have full control of the redistricting process in Maryland when the State Supreme Court is a Republican majority? Couldn't the court just overturn an extreme 8-0 Democratic Gerrymander and replace it with a balanced 5-2-1 like the liberal state supreme courts did in Florida and Pennsylvania to GOP gerrymanders?

Because the heavily dem Maryland senate has to approve any judge. They won't approve any partisan so the judges tend to be moderate technocrats.
Very different from the partisan elected judges in PA. Maryland doesn't have the fair redistricting amendment that FL has.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Just discovered this website a week ago. Making first post!
How is that the Democrats have full control of the redistricting process in Maryland when the State Supreme Court is a Republican majority? Couldn't the court just overturn an extreme 8-0 Democratic Gerrymander and replace it with a balanced 5-2-1 like the liberal state supreme courts did in Florida and Pennsylvania to GOP gerrymanders?

Also, welcome to the forum!

[Spectator]

8-0 is super easy without any ugliness. MD-06 can be cleaned up to include all of Frederick County since that county is solidly blue now, and the rest filled in with Montgomery. MD-06 is still Biden +18 under this iteration. MD-08 still has enough left of Montgomery County to fit entirely within it.

My MD-01 includes all of Anne Arundel, Talbot, Kent, and Caroline Counties, and slivers of PG and Montgomery that are left over from MD-08 and MD-04. This new MD-01 comes out to Biden + 15.  MD-05 takes in the remaining southern Eastern Shore Counties, as well as the southern western shore counties and part of PG County. MD-03 takes in Cecil County, Hartford County and the super blue parts of Baltimore County and ends up Biden +18.

[BoiseBoy]

The Citizens Redistricting Commission has a draft plan that was presented at their meeting on September 9 (https://redistricting.maryland.gov/Pages/illustrative.aspx)

Here is the map:


Districts 7 and 8 are strong Republican, having voted for Trump by over 20 points each in 2016. The other districts are Safe Democrat. Four districts are minority-majority.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/walterolson/status/1436461488982695943?s=20

Starting map from the Maryland redistricting commission. Three problems:

1) The district have sizable population deviations above the legal and justifiable threasholds.

2) The PG seat appears to be an unlawful minority pack.

3) This commission is for all intents and purposes, powerless.

[Roll Roons]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/2fe11b07-a9ac-402d-b397-d80a35b7fa6f

Here's a fair map I made after the census data came out. It's a lot neater than the current map, which isn't hard to do.

There are two strong R seats - one based on the Eastern Shore and one in Western Maryland that also includes the outer part of MoCo. In 2016, Trump won the former by 21 and the latter by 18, so they should be alright. There's also a swing district in the Baltimore suburbs that Hillary only won by less than 2 points. Though it likely shifted to Biden substantially, Hogan got nearly 70% there.

[Non Swing Voter]

Do the Dems have any incentive at all to not do an 8-0 gerrymander?  I assume they have a veto proof majority on the state level.