Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[wbrocks67]

T-Mac outspending Youngkin nearly 2:1 in the final stretch, which is a bit surprising.

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1452991950685093907

[wbrocks67]

Democrats are definitly panicking, you don't get that kind of VP engagment unless polls are showing something scary.

I mean, it's only two visits.

It's not impossible. But it's also possible that they can't leave anything to change, whether they're up or they're down, and know it's smarter just to go all in.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Democrats are definitly panicking, you don't get that kind of VP engagment unless polls are showing something scary.

There is no good reasons to think, that their polls are showing anything different than the public ones. And public polls' results  are "scary" for Democrats.

[Spectator]

Who is ready for this same dog and pony show in 2025 after McAuliffe ultimately wins this year and all the panic was much ado about nothing?

[wbrocks67]

Who is ready for this same dog and pony show in 2025 after McAuliffe ultimately wins this year and all the panic was much ado about nothing?

I mean, given what we saw with the CA recall race, it's clear the political world will keep doing this with every single "off year" race no matter what the partisan lean of that state is.

[Non Swing Voter]

Democrats are definitly panicking, you don't get that kind of VP engagment unless polls are showing something scary.

All these people went and campaigned with Gavin Newsom just a few months ago.  How did that election turn out?

[roxas11]

Democrats are definitly panicking, you don't get that kind of VP engagment unless polls are showing something scary.

tell that to this guy....

[Roll Roons]

Democrats are definitly panicking, you don't get that kind of VP engagment unless polls are showing something scary.

All these people went and campaigned with Gavin Newsom just a few months ago.  How did that election turn out?

Biden was in a much better position then. California is also way bluer than both Virginia and New Jersey, and Elder was a much weaker candidate than Youngkin or Ciattarelli.

[wbrocks67]

Democrats are definitly panicking, you don't get that kind of VP engagment unless polls are showing something scary.

All these people went and campaigned with Gavin Newsom just a few months ago.  How did that election turn out?

Biden was in a much better position then. California is also way bluer than both Virginia and New Jersey, and Elder was a much weaker candidate than Youngkin or Ciattarelli.

Not a terribly better position. 538 show Biden's approval as -3 on CA election day vs. -7 now.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Polls moved towards the democrats as the CA recall approached, that isn't happening here.

[roxas11]

Democrats are definitly panicking, you don't get that kind of VP engagment unless polls are showing something scary.

All these people went and campaigned with Gavin Newsom just a few months ago.  How did that election turn out?

Biden was in a much better position then. California is also way bluer than both Virginia and New Jersey, and Elder was a much weaker candidate than Youngkin or Ciattarelli.

I'm not sure buy this because at the time Biden was being hit by a very bad news cycle when it came to Afghanistan and the delta wave was doing devastating damage around the country.

today Biden may not be in the greatest shape, but I would argue that he currently in a far better position than he was in August and September of 2021

[Matty]

Polls moved towards the democrats as the CA recall approached, that isn't happening here.

This is exactly right, which is why the “but CA” canard is so dumb

There were 3 or 4 polls in last week of CA recall showing “no” surging and approaching 20 points

[ElectionsGuy]

Democrats are definitly panicking, you don't get that kind of VP engagment unless polls are showing something scary.

All these people went and campaigned with Gavin Newsom just a few months ago.  How did that election turn out?

Biden was in a much better position then. California is also way bluer than both Virginia and New Jersey, and Elder was a much weaker candidate than Youngkin or Ciattarelli.

I'm not sure buy this because at the time Biden was being hit by a very bad news cycle when it came to Afghanistan and the delta wave was doing devastating damage around the country.

today Biden may not be in the greatest shape, but I would argue that he currently in a far better position than he was in August and September of 2021

This just isn't true. Sorry, Afghanistan wasn't the only thing that brought down his approval. The fact that it's even worse today should tell you something. Maybe the way the media looks at how "successful" Biden is on any given week/month/etc. doesn't line up with the way Americans view him, shockingly.

[Non Swing Voter]

Polls moved towards the democrats as the CA recall approached, that isn't happening here.

Which shows how ridiculous these polls are, when everyone just voted exactly like they did in 2020.  As will mostly be the case in VA.  And then the same blue avatars will delete their pre-election predictions as they did last time.

[wbrocks67]

Polls moved towards the democrats as the CA recall approached, that isn't happening here.

This is exactly right, which is why the “but CA” canard is so dumb

There were 3 or 4 polls in last week of CA recall showing “no” surging and approaching 20 points

Mostly because pollsters realized their models from earlier were terrible. But the same issues seem to be prescient here - pollsters don't know whos showing up.

Pollsters could also use CA early vote to help them since its by party reg, but since its not in VA, that can't be used as much.

Pollsters also don't seem to know who's going to show up. A lot of the current polls are factoring in an electorate where Dems aren't really showing up.

[roxas11]

Polls moved towards the democrats as the CA recall approached, that isn't happening here.

On the hand the polls were acually starting to narrow during the 2017 virigina governer race

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/governor/va/virginia_governor_gillespie_vs_northam-6197.html

Northam went from having solid leads over his opponent to polls showing him only having a 1 or 2 point lead at the end

[Non Swing Voter]

Democrats are definitly panicking, you don't get that kind of VP engagment unless polls are showing something scary.

All these people went and campaigned with Gavin Newsom just a few months ago.  How did that election turn out?

Biden was in a much better position then. California is also way bluer than both Virginia and New Jersey, and Elder was a much weaker candidate than Youngkin or Ciattarelli.

I'm not sure buy this because at the time Biden was being hit by a very bad news cycle when it came to Afghanistan and the delta wave was doing devastating damage around the country.

today Biden may not be in the greatest shape, but I would argue that he currently in a far better position than he was in August and September of 2021

This just isn't true. Sorry, Afghanistan wasn't the only thing that brought down his approval. The fact that it's even worse today should tell you something. Maybe the way the media looks at how "successful" Biden is on any given week/month/etc. doesn't line up with the way Americans view him, shockingly.

"I'm not a Republican but *mirrors worn out GOP talking points in every thread*"

[ElectionsGuy]

Polls moved towards the democrats as the CA recall approached, that isn't happening here.

On the hand the polls were acually starting to narrow during the 2017 virigina governer race

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/governor/va/virginia_governor_gillespie_vs_northam-6197.html

Northam went from having solid leads over his opponent to polls showing him only having a 1 or 2 point lead at the end

The polls were all over the place in 2017, and while some of them narrowed, there were plenty of them that showed a sizable Northam lead.

That is not the case here. One thing you'll notice is that there's far less of them this year, but also that they're remarkably stable (last 4-5 polls have had ties). That doesn't mean they'll be completely accurate, but they're more likely to be.

Also, common sense in 2017 should've told us that an unpopular Donald Trump would be a drag on Gillespie, especially in a state he lost by 5 points. Why would he do better than Trump in an off-year? Poeple should've asked that question. But people don't want to apply that principle here because they don't want to give up on their ridiculous Safe D proclamations.

[Sir Mohamed]

Polls moved towards the democrats as the CA recall approached, that isn't happening here.

On the hand the polls were acually starting to narrow during the 2017 virigina governer race

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/governor/va/virginia_governor_gillespie_vs_northam-6197.html

Northam went from having solid leads over his opponent to polls showing him only having a 1 or 2 point lead at the end

The polls were all over the place in 2017, and while some of them narrowed, there were plenty of them that showed a sizable Northam lead.

That is not the case here. One thing you'll notice is that there's far less of them this year, but also that they're remarkably stable (last 4-5 polls have had ties). That doesn't mean they'll be completely accurate, but they're more likely to be.

Also, common sense in 2017 should've told us that an unpopular Donald Trump would be a drag on Gillespie, especially in a state he lost by 5 points. Why would he do better than Trump in an off-year? Poeple should've asked that question. But people don't want to apply that principle here because they don't want to give up on their ridiculous Safe D proclamations.

I dunno who seriously predicts McAuliffe outperfomring Biden's 2020 10 pt margin. That's not going to happen unless polls are totally off. Most predictions from red avatars seems to be in the 3-7 pts. range.

[ElectionsGuy]

Polls moved towards the democrats as the CA recall approached, that isn't happening here.

On the hand the polls were acually starting to narrow during the 2017 virigina governer race

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/governor/va/virginia_governor_gillespie_vs_northam-6197.html

Northam went from having solid leads over his opponent to polls showing him only having a 1 or 2 point lead at the end

The polls were all over the place in 2017, and while some of them narrowed, there were plenty of them that showed a sizable Northam lead.

That is not the case here. One thing you'll notice is that there's far less of them this year, but also that they're remarkably stable (last 4-5 polls have had ties). That doesn't mean they'll be completely accurate, but they're more likely to be.

Also, common sense in 2017 should've told us that an unpopular Donald Trump would be a drag on Gillespie, especially in a state he lost by 5 points. Why would he do better than Trump in an off-year? Poeple should've asked that question. But people don't want to apply that principle here because they don't want to give up on their ridiculous Safe D proclamations.

I dunno who seriously predicts McAuliffe outperfomring Biden's 2020 10 pt margin. That's not going to happen unless polls are totally off. Most predictions from red avatars seems to be in the 3-7 pts. range.

That's true. I'm more so referring to the idea that the polls are going to have the same error as 2017. While they may still have an R-leaning error, I don't see any reason for them to be that badly off when Republicans have an enthusiasm edge in this race. I would make a broader point that yes, polling errors have a little something to do with the president's approval and party enthusiasm. I would argue that's why they "weren't that bad" in 2018. That is not on the Democrats' side this year.

[roxas11]

Democrats are definitly panicking, you don't get that kind of VP engagment unless polls are showing something scary.

All these people went and campaigned with Gavin Newsom just a few months ago.  How did that election turn out?

Biden was in a much better position then. California is also way bluer than both Virginia and New Jersey, and Elder was a much weaker candidate than Youngkin or Ciattarelli.

I'm not sure buy this because at the time Biden was being hit by a very bad news cycle when it came to Afghanistan and the delta wave was doing devastating damage around the country.

today Biden may not be in the greatest shape, but I would argue that he currently in a far better position than he was in August and September of 2021

This just isn't true. Sorry, Afghanistan wasn't the only thing that brought down his approval. The fact that it's even worse today should tell you something. Maybe the way the media looks at how "successful" Biden is on any given week/month/etc. doesn't line up with the way Americans view him, shockingly.

At no point in my original post did I ever make the claim that Afghanistan was the only thing that brought down Biden approval, so I'm not sure where the criticism is even coming from because I specifically said in my original post that Afghanistan and the Delta wave was hurting Biden around that time.

Also to be clear when I said biden was in better postion I was not talking about his polls

I was saying that the political environment of August 2021 was way worse than October 2021 because on on every level from the covid to the economy things were just not going well at all

In October while Bidens polls may be worse everything that is currently going on around him is better. Covid has massively declined since august and it now looks like he does have at least a decent shot at getting his agenda passed something that I was not sure sure about a few months ago

[compucomp]

Democrats are definitly panicking, you don't get that kind of VP engagment unless polls are showing something scary.

All these people went and campaigned with Gavin Newsom just a few months ago.  How did that election turn out?

Biden was in a much better position then. California is also way bluer than both Virginia and New Jersey, and Elder was a much weaker candidate than Youngkin or Ciattarelli.

I'm not sure buy this because at the time Biden was being hit by a very bad news cycle when it came to Afghanistan and the delta wave was doing devastating damage around the country.

today Biden may not be in the greatest shape, but I would argue that he currently in a far better position than he was in August and September of 2021

This just isn't true. Sorry, Afghanistan wasn't the only thing that brought down his approval. The fact that it's even worse today should tell you something. Maybe the way the media looks at how "successful" Biden is on any given week/month/etc. doesn't line up with the way Americans view him, shockingly.

At no point in my original post did I ever make the claim that Afghanistan was the only thing that brought down Biden approval, so I'm not sure where the criticism is even coming from because I specifically said in my original post that Afghanistan and the Delta wave was hurting Biden around that time.

Also to be clear when I said biden was in better postion I was not talking about his polls

I was saying that the political environment of August 2021 was way worse than October 2021 because on on every level from the covid to the economy things were just not going well at all

In October while Bidens polls may be worse everything that is currently going on around him is better. Covid has massively declined since august and it now looks like he does have at least a decent shot at getting his agenda passed something that I was not sure sure about a few months ago

No, everything that's going on around him is not better, people are now feeling the effects of inflation and supply shortages and that is even overriding COVID as a concern. It wasn't as bad in August, and given that this never happened under Trump it's natural for people to blame the party in charge. Who cares that Biden might pass a bill to fix some roads and shovel some money at other people when they're feeling negative effects of inflation and empty store shelves now? Now there are good arguments for why it's not Biden's fault or they can fix it, but he and the Democratic party need to make the case to the people and so far they have not done a good job. For awhile they even denied that it was a problem, I remember Joe even saying that inflation was a good thing because it meant wages would rise.

[roxas11]

Democrats are definitly panicking, you don't get that kind of VP engagment unless polls are showing something scary.

All these people went and campaigned with Gavin Newsom just a few months ago.  How did that election turn out?

Biden was in a much better position then. California is also way bluer than both Virginia and New Jersey, and Elder was a much weaker candidate than Youngkin or Ciattarelli.

I'm not sure buy this because at the time Biden was being hit by a very bad news cycle when it came to Afghanistan and the delta wave was doing devastating damage around the country.

today Biden may not be in the greatest shape, but I would argue that he currently in a far better position than he was in August and September of 2021

This just isn't true. Sorry, Afghanistan wasn't the only thing that brought down his approval. The fact that it's even worse today should tell you something. Maybe the way the media looks at how "successful" Biden is on any given week/month/etc. doesn't line up with the way Americans view him, shockingly.

At no point in my original post did I ever make the claim that Afghanistan was the only thing that brought down Biden approval, so I'm not sure where the criticism is even coming from because I specifically said in my original post that Afghanistan and the Delta wave was hurting Biden around that time.

Also to be clear when I said biden was in better postion I was not talking about his polls

I was saying that the political environment of August 2021 was way worse than October 2021 because on on every level from the covid to the economy things were just not going well at all

In October while Bidens polls may be worse everything that is currently going on around him is better. Covid has massively declined since august and it now looks like he does have at least a decent shot at getting his agenda passed something that I was not sure sure about a few months ago

No, everything that's going on around him is not better, people are now feeling the effects of inflation and supply shortages and that is even overriding COVID as a concern. It wasn't as bad in August, and given that this never happened under Trump it's natural for people to blame the party in charge. Who cares that Biden might pass a bill to fix some roads and shovel some money at other people when they're feeling negative effects of inflation and empty store shelves now? Now there are good arguments for why it's not Biden's fault or they can fix it, but he and the Democratic party need to make the case to the people and so far they have not done a good job. For awhile they even denied that it was a problem, I remember Joe even saying that inflation was a good thing because it meant wages would rise.

Wow, this comment kind of caught me off guard

I will just say this maybe something like that does not matter where you live, but down here in Louisiana there are a lot of people who do care about infrastructure and the jobs that it will provide them.

I can tell you this I have not met a single person in this very conservative state who has told me that they don't care about infrastructure and jobs anymore because of inflation. Not even my trump supporting co-workers would even say something like that

[compucomp]

Democrats are definitly panicking, you don't get that kind of VP engagment unless polls are showing something scary.

All these people went and campaigned with Gavin Newsom just a few months ago.  How did that election turn out?

Biden was in a much better position then. California is also way bluer than both Virginia and New Jersey, and Elder was a much weaker candidate than Youngkin or Ciattarelli.

I'm not sure buy this because at the time Biden was being hit by a very bad news cycle when it came to Afghanistan and the delta wave was doing devastating damage around the country.

today Biden may not be in the greatest shape, but I would argue that he currently in a far better position than he was in August and September of 2021

This just isn't true. Sorry, Afghanistan wasn't the only thing that brought down his approval. The fact that it's even worse today should tell you something. Maybe the way the media looks at how "successful" Biden is on any given week/month/etc. doesn't line up with the way Americans view him, shockingly.

At no point in my original post did I ever make the claim that Afghanistan was the only thing that brought down Biden approval, so I'm not sure where the criticism is even coming from because I specifically said in my original post that Afghanistan and the Delta wave was hurting Biden around that time.

Also to be clear when I said biden was in better postion I was not talking about his polls

I was saying that the political environment of August 2021 was way worse than October 2021 because on on every level from the covid to the economy things were just not going well at all

In October while Bidens polls may be worse everything that is currently going on around him is better. Covid has massively declined since august and it now looks like he does have at least a decent shot at getting his agenda passed something that I was not sure sure about a few months ago

No, everything that's going on around him is not better, people are now feeling the effects of inflation and supply shortages and that is even overriding COVID as a concern. It wasn't as bad in August, and given that this never happened under Trump it's natural for people to blame the party in charge. Who cares that Biden might pass a bill to fix some roads and shovel some money at other people when they're feeling negative effects of inflation and empty store shelves now? Now there are good arguments for why it's not Biden's fault or they can fix it, but he and the Democratic party need to make the case to the people and so far they have not done a good job. For awhile they even denied that it was a problem, I remember Joe even saying that inflation was a good thing because it meant wages would rise.

Wow, this comment kind of caught me off guard

I will just say this maybe something like that does not matter where you live, but down here in Louisiana there are a lot of people who do care about infrastructure and the jobs that it will provide them.

I can tell you this I have not met a single person in this very conservative state who has told me that they don't care about infrastructure anymore because of inflation. Not even my trump supporting co-workers would even say something like that

You have a good point, everyone agrees infrastructure needs work and the spending on that is sorely needed. However there are a couple of problems with it:

1. Dems didn't take the win in August when it was offered to them, instead they descended into infighting about the reconciliation bill which has overshadowed the infrastructure bill, to the point that people have almost forgotten about it.

2. Where I live there is a lot of "I'll believe it when I see it" attitude when it comes to infrastructure spending. Politicians have talked about fixing the tunnels, bridges, NYC subway, NJT trains, etc forever, and money has been shoveled at it, yet they just get worse and worse and improvement projects seemingly take forever with no perceivable result.

[Non Swing Voter]

There is no proof that Republicans have an enthusiasm edge just because a few GOP terrorists are harassing school board members in Loudoun County.  Please don't dignify this as if it's fact.