UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Torrain]

Labour are trailing something called “the GPC Files”, which will release 7am Monday.

They’ve set up a countdown website and a staffer handed out prop credit cards to lobby journalists yesterday. They’ve also renamed their press release social media accounts as The GPCFiles.

Suggestion is that they’ve got some dirt relating to use of a government procurement card (GPC). According to a search of Hansard, Emily Thornberry has posed over 350 written questions to different government departments since the last week of January on government procurement, so they're clearly up to something

Whether it’s significant, or a bit of a misfire remains to be seen.

[CumbrianLefty]

Scotland has been doing its own thing in general elections for at least half a century. Even if you put aside the SNP, the swing between Labour and the Tories has often been vastly different to that in the rest of GB.

Up to a point, but maybe not as much as some imagine. For every 1987, there's a 1992 also.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-5-february-2023/

If you look at the cross-tabs here, Labour were actually ahead of the SNP. When was the last time that happened?

[Torrain]

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-5-february-2023/

If you look at the cross-tabs here, Labour were actually ahead of the SNP. When was the last time that happened?

Yeah - that’s a (pleasant) surprise.

Must say though, if you look at the crosstabs, the numbers are 43% Labour, 30% SNP. Which is essentially a flip of the consensus polling for those two parties at the minute. If you told me they’d just put the numbers in the wrong columns - I’d almost believe you!

Worth noting - Labour got within a point of 43% in Scotland in 2001 and 2010, and ran up a staggering number of seats in those elections. Early days, but one to keep an eye on, if these numbers are borne out by other pollsters.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/MelnykAndrij/status/1623652302404870153?s=20&t=poNLRj9pz...

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/MelnykAndrij/status/1623652302404870153?s=20&t=poNLRj9pz...

Sorry, but...

[Estrella]

https://twitter.com/MelnykAndrij/status/1623652302404870153?s=20&t=poNLRj9pz...

Sorry, but...

Helping Ukraine and sinking Rishi's election campaign? What's there not to love?

[EastAnglianLefty]

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-5-february-2023/

If you look at the cross-tabs here, Labour were actually ahead of the SNP. When was the last time that happened?

I'm fairly sure it's happened before. They're not politically weighted, so you often get weird results in them.

[Cassius]

https://twitter.com/MelnykAndrij/status/1623652302404870153?s=20&t=poNLRj9pz...

Rishi your helmet is so big.

[Torrain]

Sounds like Johnson's resignation honours list is slated to arrive before the end of February - today's Telegraph says it's got close to 100 names on it, and is warning of comparisons to Wilson's lavender list.

Rumours abound about a half a dozen "problematic" names (which, coming from an article written by a Johnson-loyal journalist, is intriguing/concerning).

Will be interesting to see how the peerages for sitting MPs thing plays out. And could be yet another moment where Sunak has to choose whether to nix the list (p***ing off the Johnsonites, and setting a precedent that the next PM could use to kill Sunak's own resignation honours), or let it stand (and face another round of Tory sleaze discourse in the papers, PMQs etc).

[CumbrianLefty]

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-5-february-2023/

If you look at the cross-tabs here, Labour were actually ahead of the SNP. When was the last time that happened?

I'm fairly sure it's happened before. They're not politically weighted, so you often get weird results in them.

Again, WHY are people taking specific subsamples seriously? The *best* that they are useful for - and even this is only very guardedly - is showing broad trends over time.

[MaxQue]

Sounds like Johnson's resignation honours list is slated to arrive before the end of February - today's Telegraph says it's got close to 100 names on it, and is warning of comparisons to Wilson's lavender list.

Rumours abound about a half a dozen "problematic" names (which, coming from an article written by a Johnson-loyal journalist, is intriguing/concerning).

Will be interesting to see how the peerages for sitting MPs thing plays out. And could be yet another moment where Sunak has to choose whether to nix the list (p***ing off the Johnsonites, and setting a precedent that the next PM could use to kill Sunak's own resignation honours), or let it stand (and face another round of Tory sleaze discourse in the papers, PMQs etc).

Will Truss get resignation honours too?

[Torrain]

Will Truss get resignation honours too?

It certainly sounds like she’s putting a list together. There were stories in November last year, after her allies briefed against her in the press to try and pressure her to shorten her list, so there was less chance Sunak would intervene. 

There was a rumour for a week or so that she wanted to put Kwasi Kwarteng in the House of Lords.

But I imagine we’ll have to get Johnson’s list out of the way first, before Truss even attempts to get her’s through. Feel like he’s first in line, and she’s gonna want to see how Sunak reacts before she starts trying to convince him to let her create knighthoods and life-peerages.

[Estrella]

Is it normal for resignation honors to take this long?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is it normal for resignation honors to take this long?

Nothing about resignation honours is normal, which is one of the problems with them. But usually the gap is about a month.

[Blair]

Tories have briefed quite an hilarious piece about crime being higher in labour controlled areas which errr ignores who has been in power since 2010.

They’re really struggling over what their actual attack on Labour will be- currently a mix of Corbyn and not knowing what a women is- so good to see they’re v online!

[CumbrianLefty]

Tories have briefed quite an hilarious piece about crime being higher in labour controlled areas which errr ignores who has been in power since 2010.

They’re really struggling over what their actual attack on Labour will be- currently a mix of Corbyn and not knowing what a women is- so good to see they’re v online!

Don't forget "union paymasters".

[afleitch]

Very sadly a 16 year old trans girl, Brianna Ghey was murdered at the weekend with two teenagers taken into custody.

Does the press fail the dead as much as they fail the living?

https://mobile.twitter.com/trans_safety/status/1625057183183282177

https://mobile.twitter.com/BernieTranders/status/1625036087696535552

Her family put out a very gracious statement. They lost a daughter.

This sort of story with its 'teenage violence' angle is usually, and sadly often salacious material for the press. But they are in an absolute quandary.

And if you delve into TERF spaces on this story...it's utterly soul destroying.

[CumbrianLefty]

The Times have now had to partially re-rat on their erasing of history above - it is being asked, not unreasonably, which of their mega-bucks TERF columnists screamed the place down to get such an act of revisionism passed in the first place.

Nearly all TV channels seem to have had little compunction in referring to the victim as "she".

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting comment on how out of touch that particular paper's rather strident and, frankly, quite extreme stance on that issue (set of issues?) is.

[afleitch]

The Times have now had to partially re-rat on their erasing of history above - it is being asked, not unreasonably, which of their mega-bucks TERF columnists screamed the place down to get such an act of revisionism passed in the first place.

Nearly all TV channels seem to have had little compunction in referring to the victim as "she".

I think part of it is the initial reporting which referred to the victim as a 'she' followed by an understanding that the victim was a trans women. What was so frankly, evil, about the press was snooping around to find the victims dead name and then adjusting headlines and articles in line with the GC editorial line which was just crass. The quick 180 was in part based on the family coming out in support of Brianna.

[Pericles]

Tories have briefed quite an hilarious piece about crime being higher in labour controlled areas which errr ignores who has been in power since 2010.

They’re really struggling over what their actual attack on Labour will be- currently a mix of Corbyn and not knowing what a women is- so good to see they’re v online!

Truly shocking revelation from Tory spin that crime is higher in poor areas than rich ones.

Doesn't help that they've been diverting the levelling up funding from those actually most in need.

[CumbrianLefty]

The Times have now had to partially re-rat on their erasing of history above - it is being asked, not unreasonably, which of their mega-bucks TERF columnists screamed the place down to get such an act of revisionism passed in the first place.

Nearly all TV channels seem to have had little compunction in referring to the victim as "she".

I think part of it is the initial reporting which referred to the victim as a 'she' followed by an understanding that the victim was a trans women. What was so frankly, evil, about the press was snooping around to find the victims dead name and then adjusting headlines and articles in line with the GC editorial line which was just crass. The quick 180 was in part based on the family coming out in support of Brianna.

As said above, the general reporting has been notably respectful and the Times very much an outlier. One would like to think this will prompt some self-reflection on their part, but very likely not.

[Hnv1]

For the life of me I will never understand why trans issues became so big in the UK in ways unparalleled in any other western country (US college towns are not countries). From Cathleen Stock and the TERF wars to this.

[EastAnglianLefty]

It's not big in the country (where the predominant reaction is tolerant indifference); it's big in the media.

A certain amount of it seems to have emerged from the particular kind of feminism dominant in those circles in the UK - very much not intersectional; uninterested in class or racial diversity; tending to view women as an oppressed category regardless of other circumstances; and with occasional forays into straightforward misandry at the more extreme end of the spectrum. That said, it's spread well beyond those circles by this point and there's been a lot of self-radicalisation.