2023 Japan Unified local elections

[jaichind]

PR vote average curve




PR vote average (change from two weeks ago)

LDP     30.6 (-0.2)
KP        4.8 (+0.2)
DIY       1.4 (-0.1)
PNHK    0.3 (-0.1)
JRP      14.3 (-0.3)
DPP       2.9 (+0.1)
CDP     10.2 (+0.5)
RS        4.1 (+0.1)
SDP      0.7 (+.2)
JCP       4.0 (-0.1)

Most reversion to the mean for JRP and CDP

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

RS surpassing JCP is an interesting sign. Still too bad they hate nuclear (even if in Japan, it's more understandable to have concerns after Fukushima, but that was just horrible placement)

[jaichind]

https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASR9C7FTTR9CUTFK01D.html

Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary 木原 誠二(Kihara Seiji) and LDP MP for Tokyo 20th might be in political trouble.  His wife's former husband was murdered in 2006 in a crime that was never solved.  The political decided to reopen this cold case recently and all signs are his wife might become a suspect.   He is close to Kishida and will be a big blow when Kishida has to drop him as part of the cabinet reshuffle.

[jaichind]

Old Abe crony and right wing novelist 百田 尚樹(Hyakuta Naoki),  angry about LDP passing a LGBT Understanding Bill in June, will form his own party and run in the next Lower House elections.  

His party will be called 日本保守党 or CPJ or Conservative Party of Japan


Mostly bad news for LDP and DIY.  

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/hoshuto_jp/status/1701675851333656861

It seems CPJ or Conservative Party of Japan made a promise that if their Twitter (X) handle got over 200K followers then they will move forward with forming the party for real and register to run in the next Lower House elections.  They reached 200K followers yesterday ergo they are going forward with the party formation.

[jaichind]

Hard Right and very pro-Abe Hanada magazine Twitter poll shows a large number are now for the new CPJ.  Hanada magazine is one of those on the hard right media that continues to support the Unification Church.  These results seem to indicate that part of the old hardcore pro-Abe is hard right + some of the LDP Unification votes could swing toward CPJ.  It is just a poll with 32K respondents so one cannot be sure but CPJ does seem to start with some enthusiasm from this part of the political spectrum.

[jaichind]

Number of Twitter(X) followers by party.  CDJ is already number 2 behind LDP.  Of course, they made the number of followers a proxy for whether they would form the party ergo this number is relatively inflated compared to the others.  

Of course in 2017 when the old DP fell apart and was being taken over by HP and CDP emerged as an alternative successor to DP, CDP started as a Twitter handle with a surge in followers and then grew into a real party as key DP politicians that did not want to join HP, seeing that the new CDP has some support, joined CDP.   CDJ seems to be following the same path of party growth plans.

Also, note that the DIY surge in the 2022 Upper House election was also internet-driven in the earlier phases.

https://twitter.com/nihonjintamasii/status/1701785325084029151

[jaichind]

Watching the kickoff video of the new CPJ it seems their platform will be very similar to the other Far Right parties.  The founder 百田 尚樹(Hyakuta Naoki) wrote the book "Eternal Zero" which is about a Japanese Kamikaze fighter that turned into a movie in 2013 (I saw the movie on a plane on one of my trips to Japan and thought it was very good and really enjoyed it) so it is clear that sort of Japanese revision of the WWII narrative will be important to the party which it is.  A key plank is clearly constitutional revision but with the goal of kicking out the USA from Japan so Japan can truly be an independent power.  The anti-USA platform also includes the LGBT agenda which the party also links to the woke agenda of the West which is very similar to DIY.  Unlike other Far Right parties, CPJ does have some aspects of internationalism.   The party does defend the Unification Church which shares in their Far Right ideals and the fact it has Korean nationalist origins does not seem to bother CPJ, unlike parties like PNHK and DIY.   Despite being anti-USA across the board CPJ does seem to be pro-Trump although DIY also shows that position as well.

I really do recommend that CPJ find a way to form an alliance with DIY.  I can see CPJ being able to eat into the LDP vote more effectively than DIY, especially in urban areas, but if their efforts are not united I suspect they will not amount to much other than to damage LDP and each other.

[xelas81]

Old Abe crony and right wing novelist 百田 尚樹(Hyakuta Naoki),  angry about LDP passing a LGBT Understanding Bill in June, will form his own party and run in the next Lower House elections.  

His party will be called 日本保守党 or CPJ or Conservative Party of Japan


Mostly bad news for LDP and DIY.  

The women next to him is Kaori Arimoto who is apparently an expert in China, Tibet and India.

https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%9C%89%E6%9C%AC%E9%A6%99

[jaichind]

It seems the number of Twitter(X) followers for CPJ has overtaken LDP to be the most followed Japanese political party on Twitter(X)

[jaichind]

We will know only after their official founding and polling starts but it is totally possible that CPJ will eat 3%-4% PR vote from LDP.  If so the next general election will be an election where no party wins more than 30% on the PR slate.  Since 1996 when the PR vote existed in both the Lower and Upper House elections, only 1998, 2000, and  2012 have the scenario where support was so scattered that no party crossed 30%.  

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/46c3eaae60da2ed7729f40510bea3f737dd8f8b3

It seems the Kishida cabinet reshuffle has not improved Kishida's standing relative to his intra-party rivals.  It seems the Kono Junior-Ishiba-Koizumi Junior non-mainstream alliance defeated back in 2021 is still much more popular than the mainstream bloc led by himself.

If so then there is a reasonable risk to Kishida that he will be defeated in the LDP Prez election due in  Sept 2024.  This prospect might make him risk a general election even if he risks losing a bunch of seats to JRP and making his position worse.

[jaichind]

Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval curve. The cabinet reshuffle bounce was tiny and now seems to have plateaued for now.

[jaichind]

https://www.zakzak.co.jp/article/20230922-7PU76AMOXFNMVOZN5E2IHSODRI/

Analyst 松田馨(Matsuda Kaoru) projection of Lower House election if held now

Mostly status quo with LDP, KP, CDP losing some ground to JRP

         Projection    2021 results
LDP     252               261
KP        24                 32
DIY        3
JRP       68                 41
DPP      12                 11
CDP      88                 96
RS          3                  3
SDP        1                  1
JCP         9                10
Ind         5                10

6 2021 independents have since joined LDP so as per this projection LDP is really going from 267 to 252.

[jaichind]

Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval curve has the post-cabinet reshuffle bounce already going into reverse again

[jaichind]

https://www.nikkan-gendai.com/articles/view/news/329582

More LDP-KP trouble.  Former LDP PM and now faction leader Aso now calls KP leadership "a cancer."

[Logical]

It's Aso, he's already more than half senile. He's 2 years older than Biden!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.zakzak.co.jp/article/20230922-7PU76AMOXFNMVOZN5E2IHSODRI/

Analyst 松田馨(Matsuda Kaoru) projection of Lower House election if held now

Mostly status quo with LDP, KP, CDP losing some ground to JRP

         Projection    2021 results
LDP     252               261
KP        24                 32
DIY        3
JRP       68                 41
DPP      12                 11
CDP      88                 96
RS          3                  3
SDP        1                  1
JCP         9                10
Ind         5                10

6 2021 independents have since joined LDP so as per this projection LDP is really going from 267 to 252.

Noteworthy that every opposition party except JRP DPP and DIY would lose seats here or be even at a tiny number of seats.
CDP continues to do poorly...

[jaichind]

LDP speaker of the Lower House 細田 博之(Hosoda Hiroyuki) will step down as Speaker and most likely will not run for re-election in the Lower House citing health issues.  Before the Abe faction was called the Abe faction it was called the Hosoda faction although Abe was the de facto leader of the faction but did not take the role of formal leader since he was the PM.

[jaichind]

https://newsdig.tbs.co.jp/articles/-/755562

JRP MP and leader of NPD 鈴木 宗男(Suzuki Muneo) went on an unauthorized trip to Russia.  His daughter is in the LDP and will run for LDP in the upcoming election.  He might meet disciplinary action by JRP but most likely it will be a slap on the wrist.  The fact is that Suzuki is at least half if not more of the JRP in 北海道(Hokkaido)

[jaichind]

https://news.bloombergtax.com/daily-tax-report/japan-ldps-seko-says-will-mull-income-corp-tax-cuts-kyodo

"Japan LDP’s Seko Says Will Mull Income, Corp. Tax Cuts: Kyodo"

Says even if the tax cuts are implemented, they wouldn’t be something that would impact the nation’s fiscal health

LDP now buying into supply side economics and Laffer Curve?  Just in time for a possible snap election. 

[jaichind]

Due to the fall of the JPY the Big Mac index has pushed Japan below Thailand, PRC, and Romania and barely above Vietnam

[jaichind]

https://newsdig.tbs.co.jp/articles/-/755562

JRP MP and leader of NPD 鈴木 宗男(Suzuki Muneo) went on an unauthorized trip to Russia.  His daughter is in the LDP and will run for LDP in the upcoming election.  He might meet disciplinary action by JRP but most likely it will be a slap on the wrist.  The fact is that Suzuki is at least half if not more of the JRP in 北海道(Hokkaido)

鈴木 宗男(Suzuki Muneo)'s PR vote in the 2019 Upper House elections as JRP PR candidate.  His personal vote in 北海道(Hokkaido)  is very large

[jaichind]

Oct 22 will see 2 by-elections in addition to the 宮城(Miyagi) prefecture assembly elections.

One is 長崎(Nagasaki) 4th where the sitting LDP MP who was going to retire next election passed away.  This seat will be redistricted as 長崎(Nagasaki) 3rd.  The LDP and CDP will run their likely candidates in the next general election in a preview battle.

The other is 徳島(Tokushima)-高知(Kōchi) Upper house seat where the sitting LDP MP had to resign over a scandal.  The CDP will run a former MP who served in the Upper House and then Lower House who was defeated in 2021 by the popular pro-LDP 高知(Kōchi) governor as a united front candidate with DPP SDP and JCP support.  The first polls done by local media that he would pull off an upset over LDP.

[jaichind]

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2023/10/57f22d4b832c-japan-pm-kishida-unlikely-to-call-snap-election-within-2023-sources.html

"Japan PM Kishida unlikely to call snap election within 2023: sources"

Kyodo says that Kishida most likely will not call a snap election in 2023.