2023 Japan Unified local elections

[jaichind]

PR vote polling average curve



PR vote average (change from 2 weeks ago)

LDP     29.4 (+1.1)
KP        5.4 (+0.3)
DIY       2.0 (+0.5)
PNHK    0.1 (-0.1)
JRP      12.7 (-0.3)
DPP       3.4 (-0.5)
CDP    12.5 (+2.0)
RS        3.8 (-0.1)
SDP      1.2 (+0.7)
JCP       3.6 (-1.3)

LDP-KP and CDP gain at the expense of JRP DPP and JCP.  Sort of shows that Kishida's numbers falling is more about Kishda and not LDP although if LDP keeps Kishida at the top of LDP that will hurt LDP.

[jaichind]

Asahi poll on when Kishida should leave office

I want him to stay on as PM indefinitely                            14%
He should step down after the 2024 Sept LDP Prez race     55%
He should resign ASAP                                                    26%


It seems Kishida needs to start pulling rabbits out of a hat (or a foreign policy crisis with DPRK or PRC) or else he will have trouble at the 2024 Sept LDP Prez race.

[CascadianIndy]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/fd28c51e5f1119cfb5056be23aea76cd4afe7394

Seiji Maehara has left the DPFP to start his own organization, the, uh, “The Party to Realize Free Education”. The story going around is that Tamaki, who beat Maehara in the DPFP leadership contest earlier this year, wanted to go into coalition with the LDP, while Maehara was against the idea and bolted, bringing a few new Diet members with him.

Looks like the parliamentary grouping was created because some of the Diet members he brought with him were elected on the party vote (PR Bloc), and thus can't defect to Ishin without triggering a resignation of some sort. Nonetheless, Maehara formally aligning himself with Ishin gives the party much-needed credibility on foreign policy after successive debacles from their last point person, Muneo Suzuki.

Also of note is Maehara's hometown being Kyoto - the very same city holding a mayoral election soon, which Ishin hopes to snag. Slow coalescence of some more opposition forces into a unified Third Pole.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/fd28c51e5f1119cfb5056be23aea76cd4afe7394

Seiji Maehara has left the DPFP to start his own organization, the, uh, “The Party to Realize Free Education”. The story going around is that Tamaki, who beat Maehara in the DPFP leadership contest earlier this year, wanted to go into coalition with the LDP, while Maehara was against the idea and bolted, bringing a few new Diet members with him.

Looks like the parliamentary grouping was created because some of the Diet members he brought with him were elected on the party vote (PR Bloc), and thus can't defect to Ishin without triggering a resignation of some sort. Nonetheless, Maehara formally aligning himself with Ishin gives the party much-needed credibility on foreign policy after successive debacles from their last point person, Muneo Suzuki.

Also of note is Maehara's hometown being Kyoto - the very same city holding a mayoral election soon, which Ishin hopes to snag. Slow coalescence of some more opposition forces into a unified Third Pole.

The name of the new party makes it sound like a fringe party and not a serious party.  It is not clear why 前原 誠司(Maehara Seiji) did not retain the word "Democratic" in the name of his party.  Anyway, this sounds like a Kyodo faction split from the Kagawa faction.   The problem I have with 玉木 雄一郎, (Tamaki Yūichirō) approach is that I see no sign that the LDP will give a couple of seats to the DPP in the next election.  So in the end both DPP splinters will have to de facto work with CDP to get opposition unity in the district where DPP is running.  I guess on the PR slate the 玉木 雄一郎(Tamaki Yūichirō) led DPP could get some extra LDP votes by pushing his line on working with LDP-KP.  But he will lose anti-LDP votes so in the end it is most likely a wash.

[Logical]

Funny name, but he and his guys are going to join Ishin one way or another by the next election. Most importantly though, it looks like this may be the end for the right wing of the old DPJ as an independent force.

[Octowakandi]

Seems like nobody in the LDP really wants to challenge Kishida though. Interesting situation where they may just want him to take the fall or are willing to wait until 2025 on the chance he fixes things?

[Lachi]

Well this isn't a good look for the LDP at all

https://twitter.com/Nihonpolitics/status/1731155103757832495?s=20

Prosecutor's office will be looking into it, members may need to testify, and the potential that Toshihiro's faction is also involved

[jaichind]

Well this isn't a good look for the LDP at all

https://twitter.com/Nihonpolitics/status/1731155103757832495?s=20

Prosecutor's office will be looking into it, members may need to testify, and the potential that Toshihiro's faction is also involved

This scandal has been brewing for a while.  It was only the power of Abe himself that kept the investigation moving along much slower than usual.  With Abe gone this scandal was going to break eventually.

[jaichind]

https://www.jiji.com/sp/article?k=2023120401019&g=pol

Former Upper House LDP MP and member of Abe faction leaves LDP over Abe faction fundinf scandal

[Octowakandi]

How in the world is the Abe Faction still leadership while still being the largest faction. Absurd that Abe of all people was apparently this charismatic force keeping it all together.

[Logical]

Abe's faction is still less than dominant than Tanaka's faction in the 70s and 80s. At its peak they had total control over who would become PM. Even until 2005 the descendant of the Tanaka faction (today called the Motegi faction) was the largest LDP faction. What changed in the early 2000s was Koizumi's hostility towards the Tanaka faction (then called the Hashimoto faction). He excluded them from party leadership posts and peeled away young ambitious members with government jobs. Hashimoto himself got entangled in a corruption scandal and was forced to retire. After the 2005 postal election, Koizumi's own faction (then called the Mori faction) successfully topped Tanaka's successors to become the largest faction in the LDP. After Koizumi's retirement, Abe eventually became the dominant figure in his faction. His long premiership ensured that the faction remained largest in the LDP.
Kishida is not Koizumi, his position in the LDP is too weak to confront the Abe faction. He doesn't have Koizumi's iron will either.

From top to bottom in the chart labels; Abe faction, Motegi faction, Kishida faction, Aso faction.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Maybe the Abe faction is lucky it isn't in charge right now. It'd be an even bigger story if that was the case...

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-06/japan-s-kishida-says-party-to-treat-funding-scandal-as-crisis

"Japan’s Kishida Cancels Year-End Parties on Funding Scandal"

[jaichind]

Jiji chart on slush fund by LDP faction the largest being 230 million JPY which would be less than $2 million.  Overall the numbers involved a tiny by political standards in the USA or even India but in Japan, they are making a big deal of it.

[jaichind]

It is said that Kishida will soon sack his Chief Cabinet Secretary 松野 博一(Matsuno Hirokazu) (a member of the Abe faction) due to his involvement in the Abe faction funding scandal.

[jaichind]

https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASRD86JXCRD8UTIL020.html

It seems the Abe faction funding scandal will wipe out all 6 of the 6-person collective leadership leaving no leader for the Abe faction.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASRD86JXCRD8UTIL020.html

It seems the Abe faction funding scandal will wipe out all 6 of the 6-person collective leadership leaving no leader for the Abe faction.

Perhaps this scandal will make it easier for the faction to actually get a single leader.

[CascadianIndy]

https://twitter.com/Nihonpolitics/status/1733567972004770225

The Seiwakai has not had a good year.

[jaichind]

I am not sure at this stage who would want to join this government.  Also, it is very unclear what will happen to the Abe faction and if it will even stay a faction.

[Octowakandi]

The Abe faction is more ideological than anything? Seems like a risky move for Kishida when he's underwater as is.

[Logical]

Start the snap election countdown?

[jaichind]

There is an election tomorrow for the ward head of Tokyo's 江東区(Koto City).  Given the recent LDP scandals, it would be a good litmus test of how much damage LDP has taken.  The race is 5 independents but you can go by who is supporting them.

LDP-KP-TPFA-DPP
Center Left-JCP
JRP
Post-YP (local successor to YP which had merged into TPFA only to split out again)
LDP rebel

I would have thought that the LDP-KP-TPFA-DPP candidate would beat out the Center Left-JCP by 5-10 points but with the scandals, it would be interesting on how the vote would be splintered tomorrow.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[jaichind]

All these "slush fund money" that these key Abe faction members are taking are tiny amounts of money in a world context.  They would, each, pay for 1 or maybe 2 of the "Other Women" that Hunter Biden is paying for in his budget that has most recently been exposed.

[jaichind]

For the election for the mayor of 福井市(Fukui City) it seems the anti-establishment candidate is slightly ahead per exit polls over the LDP-CDP-KP-DPP-backed candidate.  The anti-establishment candidate has a DPJ background but has since joined forces with JRP but it seems CDP and DPP chose to join forces with LDP-KP to back the sitting Deputy mayor in what now seems to be a possible losing effort.