Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[GeneralMacArthur]

It's frustrating to see that this thread has devolved, as so many Atlas threads do, into an endless back-and-forth between a whole bunch of sane people and a tiny number of very devoted, very obnoxious trolls.

There's literally like 4 people here who are bashing Ukraine and advocating for Russian imperialism to win out.  Just tell them to eat sh-t, block them, and move on.  You don't need to fill page after page of the thread with a pointless argument.  That is just giving them what they want.  Their goal is to create the illusion that this is a valid idea that is worth of discussion.  It is not.

Any sane person can see that allowing Russia to invade and conquer sovereign democratic states and commit genocide in those states with total impunity and zero consequences is a net negative for American foreign policy interests and international peace & security.  This doesn't take a lot of thought, nor does it require a lengthy explanation, nor are you obliged to address all the fake concerns that trolls pretend to have to try and waste your time.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I see some people are surprised that points of view that most of the people in the Third World and/or the more isolationistic section of the country have exist on the internet.
Sorry to break your bubble, but not everyone agrees with you!
I wonder how you would define "trolling", because if it is "disagrees with me on consensus issue in American politics", that's a pretty over-inclusive definition.

[😥]

As a Ukrainian, I will now try to explain to all people who are skeptical about the need for aid to Ukraine, why it is necessary. I understand that I will not be able to convince you of anything, but I consider it necessary to say everything.

So, first of all, there is currently no way to achieve peace through negotiations. The outcome of the war will be decided on the battlefield, and not because we, Ukrainians, want to fight. No, we don't want to fight, but we have no other choice, we just weren't given that choice. Russia's goal is to destroy the Ukrainian people, and as someone who documents Russian war crimes, I can personally confirm this. Therefore, the only way to stop Russia is to provide weapons to Ukraine. I agree that after the losses in Ukraine, Russia cannot pose a real threat to NATO countries, but it continues to pose a threat to all Ukrainians. I simply refuse to believe that the West and Western societies can turn a blind eye to the genocide that is happening here. To stop supplying weapons to Ukraine is to allow Russia to destroy us as a nation. I do not believe that you can do such a thing. Western aid is now the only chance for Ukrainian children to survive.

Regarding the topic of the earliest possible ceasefire and truce. There are 2 reasons why this should not be allowed. The first reason is that any ceasefire is a time for Russia to regroup and launch an offensive with new forces. I think we have all seen that Russia cannot be trusted. The second reason is terror in the occupied territories. For example, yesterday the Russians in Kherson killed a local actor who refused to perform at a festive concert. In addition, more than 100 children are taken from Kherson alone to Russia every day, who are then given to Russian families for adoption. We must stop this as soon as possible. And the only way to stop it is for Ukraine to go to its borders at least as of February 23 (of course, in the ideal version, it would be to go to the borders as of 2013)

That's all. Thank you for attention

[KaiserDave]

Thank you Andriy as always. Keep up your dutiful, patriotic, and necessary work.

Any "peace deal" with Russia isn't worth the paper its written on. Any cease-fire, a delaying action for Russia to reorganize her forces for a new attack.

If you want to know what I think a peace deal should look like? I say first, that is up to Ukrainians. Secondly, I would say, it would require Russia to withdraw to the borders before the war and the pre-war Donbass Republics. It would require some kind of reparation to Ukraine, and it would require security guarantees for Ukraine (NATO membership).

Such a deal is only possible when Russia is dealt a total and decisive defeat on the battlefield. So until then we should keep up the sanctions and give Ukraine all the weapons they need. Jets, arms, ammunition, missile systems, and modern tanks.

From Lviv to Luhansk Ukraine will be free. Nothing else can do.

[jaichind]

Putin and Russia are enemies of America and of the west.

But by that logic cannot one also say that Ho Chi Minh and DRV were enemies of the USA in the 1960s?  It does not seem to me that people in the 1960s that might not have approved of DRV but questioned the value cost and way the Vietnam war was being waged can be called traiors.  Perhaps at a technical level, you can say that about protestors that sang "Ho Ho Ho Chi Minh NLF is going to win !!" but even I might not agree.  First DRV never really threatened USA national sovereignty and those protesters never really supported Ho Chi Minh but were using him as a proxy to project their vision of the USA which was clearly different from the establishment vision of the USA.  I might not agree with this alterative vision of the USA of the protestors but that would not make me call them traitors unless USA national sovereignty was at stake. 

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I see some people are surprised that points of view that most of the people in the Third World and/or the more isolationistic section of the country have exist on the internet.

It has been interesting to see these two routinely grouped together. The proof for the latter appears to come from the extrapolation of rich expats' opinions and the actions of dictators.

My guess (and it's only a guess) would be that for the average Joe in a poorer country, the Ukrainian War is a low-salience issue (foreign policy in general is typically low salience - this goes doubly if you are struggling to survive). I'm sure they're hurting from the associated cost-of-living crises, but these things are multifaceted and often seem like most easily addressed by fixing problems at home. It's likely extremely low-salience when you consider that the "Third World" has a disproportionate number of dictatorships, in which public opinion matters less.

[jaichind]

Rybar reports that the Ukrainian offensive on the Kherson front today was repulsed.

[jaichind]

PRC Foreign Ministry asked all PRC citizens to leave Ukraine ASAP citing growing danger in security.

[NOVA Green]

Gunmen kill at least 11 people in attack on Russian military recruits, Russia's state media reports

Two gunmen opened fire on Russian military recruits at a training ground in Russia’s Belgorod region, killing at least 11 people and wounding another 15, Russia’s state news agency TASS reports.

The attack happened Saturday during a training session at the Western Military District, according to TASS, which cited the Russian Defense Ministry. The gunmen were said to be from former Soviet states. Russian officials have branded the attack an act of terrorism.

...

According to TASS, two individuals who committed the “terrorist act” were killed in retaliatory fire at the training ground.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-10-15-22?utm_term=1665867508573f5ac3d0b8bf8

Granted sources are Russian Gvt, and hence should be treated with a healthy dose of skepticism.

I find it interesting that they said these individuals were "from former Soviet States"....

Does that mean they were citizens of former Soviet States and somehow ended up getting drafted, or is this simply Russia's way of trying to indicate that these were somehow "outsiders" and that true Russians would never commit such an action?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I see some people are surprised that points of view that most of the people in the Third World and/or the more isolationistic section of the country have exist on the internet.

It has been interesting to see these two routinely grouped together. The proof for the latter appears to come from the extrapolation of rich expats' opinions and the actions of dictators.

My guess (and it's only a guess) would be that for the average Joe in a poorer country, the Ukrainian War is a low-salience issue (foreign policy in general is typically low salience - this goes doubly if you are struggling to survive). I'm sure they're hurting from the associated cost-of-living crises, but these things are multifaceted and often seem like most easily addressed by fixing problems at home. It's likely extremely low-salience when you consider that the "Third World" has a disproportionate number of dictatorships, in which public opinion matters less.

The common thread between these two groups is that they are opposed to the elite interest in Ukraine being aided. Note, I do not use this as a pejorative - rather, aid for Ukraine is a distinctly elite priority. Some see this as "my tax dollars being spent outside of my country", others view it through a lense of mistrust towards the First World political establishment and the (correct) idea that they are the ones that care about it the most within their given countries.
It does not help matters that the Russians have extensive interests in the Third World and in some countries, opposition/hostility to what the West has done is a matter of standing by a friend. Russia benefits from apathy, their inherence of the Soviet foreign policy legacy (as can be seen with Wagner providing aid to Central African Republic military training), and the presence of domestic opposition overwhelmingly from less internationalism-driven people.

[Dereich]

Rybar reports that the Ukrainian offensive on the Kherson front today was repulsed.

We're not yet two days out from the announcement that Rybar (a vocally pro-Russian source, as a reminder) is being investigated and is subject to verification by the Russian state censor for posting too much negative information about the war. Right now of all times their posts should not be treated as objective or useful.

[GeneralMacArthur]

There's nothing "elite" about Ukraine receiving aid.

What's "elite" is the incredibly privileged position of some Americans, where their geographical position means they will never personally have to worry about being invaded by Russia, or some other aggressive imperialist state like China, so defense against Russian invasion is just a theoretical thing that they can use as opportunity to take a contrarian position and talk down to everyone else.  Whether Russia gets away with invading Ukraine, annexing its territory and massacring its people matters so little to them that they pick sides purely based on what gives them that feeling of superiority they live for.

For the last seven years, liberals have constantly had to engage with bad actors on both sides who say absolutely retarded sh-t that they don't actually believe at all, and their smug, equally bad-faith buddies who come along to say "lol you're just so insulated and ignorant that you just can't accept that anyone could reasonably disagree with you." They'll say this about anything from Putin dick sucking over Ukraine, to claims that 2020 or 2016 was a rigged election, to Holocaust denial, to flat-earth-ism, to whatever other nonsense the idiot brigade decides to trot out next week.  It's the exact same argument pattern copy-and-pasted over and over and over again.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There's nothing "elite" about Ukraine receiving aid.

What's "elite" is the incredibly privileged position of some Americans, where their geographical position means they will never personally have to worry about being invaded by Russia, or some other aggressive imperialist state like China, so defense against Russian invasion is just a theoretical thing that they can use as opportunity to take a contrarian position and talk down to everyone else.  Whether Russia gets away with invading Ukraine, annexing its territory and massacring its people matters so little to them that they pick sides purely based on what gives them that feeling of superiority they live for.

For the last seven years, liberals have constantly had to engage with bad actors on both sides who say absolutely retarded sh-t that they don't actually believe at all, and their smug, equally bad-faith buddies who come along to say "lol you're just so insulated and ignorant that you just can't accept that anyone could reasonably disagree with you." They'll say this about anything from Putin dick sucking over Ukraine, to claims that 2020 or 2016 was a rigged election, to Holocaust denial, to flat-earth-ism, to whatever other nonsense the idiot brigade decides to trot out next week.  It's the exact same argument pattern copy-and-pasted over and over and over again.

You seem to think I used the word as a pejorative.
I didn't.
I simply noted that the American political class cares more about this than the average rank-and-file American does, in aggregate. Nowhere did I say this was bad, or from a particular position of [insert negative term here]. But not surprising, coming from someone who probably thinks Brazilians expressing their attitude of neutrality is "trolling".

[Frodo]

Operation Uranus (the Ukrainian version) continues to proceed:

https://twitter.com/thewarzonewire/status/1581406583535407104

[bagelman]

I do think that many of us here in the West aren't informed about Russia's less savory plans for ethnic Ukrainian people. People want to believe that the Cold War is over, that Russia isn't back to old Soviet Union era brutality, and they don't want to believe that Russia is a mafia state and its citizens are hostages because that would be going back to the bad old USSR days. So they see this war as something that should have been prevented through negotiation, as if Russia can be negotiated with.

It's disturbing that many further gone Republicans seem to have this clandestine admiration of Putin for being a right wing autocrat. If this was the Russian FSSR trying to restore the Ukrainian SSR, I figure they would have a different, less forgiving attitude.

[Virginiá]

Analysis of strip clubs in Russia yields info about people fleeing Russia to avoid mobilization

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1581375747637137408

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

So far the aid sent to Ukraine (~14 billion) has been less than 2% of the U.S. annual defense budget and less than 0.2% of the total annual budget.  While 14 billion sounds like a lot, its basically a rounding error in comparison to the sheers size of the US budget.  The U.S. could keep up the current level of investment pretty much indefinitely with negligible fiscal impact.

Ukraine is one of the poorest countries in Europe, the US military aid is literally life saving. Ukraine has a military budget of around 5 billion dollars, they would not be able to defeat Russia without Western aid.

It's just a rounding error for the West, but it is a huge help for Ukraine.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

So far the aid sent to Ukraine (~14 billion) has been less than 2% of the U.S. annual defense budget and less than 0.2% of the total annual budget.  While 14 billion sounds like a lot, its basically a rounding error in comparison to the sheers size of the US budget.  The U.S. could keep up the current level of investment pretty much indefinitely with negligible fiscal impact.

Ukraine is one of the poorest countries in Europe, the US military aid is literally life saving. Ukraine has a military budget of around 5 billion dollars, they would not be able to defeat Russia without Western aid.

It's just a rounding error for the West, but it is a huge help for Ukraine.

Also and this needs to be said. There is a huge amount of waste in our defense and foreign aid budget (Which I have advocated cutting for years). The support we give to Ukraine has been a massive ROI for US strategic interests  to this point.

The Ukrainians have certainly used our aid better than the Afghan government ever did. This war is probably the easiest war since the western front of WW2, to recognize the good and bad guys.

Sure we are sending them a bunch of money but I'd rather give it to them than spend it on a bunch of other things we usually spend money on.

[NOVA Green]

Analysis of strip clubs in Russia yields info about people fleeing Russia to avoid mobilization

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1581375747637137408

Let's just assume that most customers of strip clubs tend to be Het Males  (25-40 yrs)in Moskow, Russia...

Time to split. time to bail. time to not get conscripted into Putin's illegal Invasion and Occupation of Ukraine.

[Earthling]

Putin and Russia are enemies of America and of the west.

But by that logic cannot one also say that Ho Chi Minh and DRV were enemies of the USA in the 1960s?  It does not seem to me that people in the 1960s that might not have approved of DRV but questioned the value cost and way the Vietnam war was being waged can be called traiors.  Perhaps at a technical level, you can say that about protestors that sang "Ho Ho Ho Chi Minh NLF is going to win !!" but even I might not agree.  First DRV never really threatened USA national sovereignty and those protesters never really supported Ho Chi Minh but were using him as a proxy to project their vision of the USA which was clearly different from the establishment vision of the USA.  I might not agree with this alterative vision of the USA of the protestors but that would not make me call them traitors unless USA national sovereignty was at stake. 

There is literally no comparison between Ho Chi Minh/Vietnam in the 1960´s and Putin/Russia right now. In the end the Vietnamese were fighting a civil war over control of their own country. At no point did Vietnam pose a credible threat to the US or it's allies.

Putin on the other hand did invade a foreign nation to increase his interests. He threatens the west with nuclear war if he does not get his way and has the goods to back those words.

Ho Chi Minh was a national threat, maybe regional. Putin is a threat to the world.

[jaichind]

https://www.wionews.com/world/sweden-refuses-a-joint-investigation-team-with-germany-and-denmark-to-probe-nord-stream-explosions-525697

"Sweden refuses joint investigation team with Germany, Denmark to probe Nord Stream explosions"

Days after refusing to share the findings of its probe into the explosions of Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines with Russian authorities, Sweden has also rejected plans to set up a joint investigation team with allies, citing national security.

I wonder what Sweden learned from its investigation that it does not want Germany and Denmark to find out?

[jaichind]

I do think that many of us here in the West aren't informed about Russia's less savory plans for ethnic Ukrainian people. People want to believe that the Cold War is over, that Russia isn't back to old Soviet Union era brutality, and they don't want to believe that Russia is a mafia state and its citizens are hostages because that would be going back to the bad old USSR days. So they see this war as something that should have been prevented through negotiation, as if Russia can be negotiated with.

It's disturbing that many further gone Republicans seem to have this clandestine admiration of Putin for being a right wing autocrat. If this was the Russian FSSR trying to restore the Ukrainian SSR, I figure they would have a different, less forgiving attitude.

I was against USSR and Communism in the 1980s not just because USSR was Left and I was extreme Right.  I was also against the Universalist nature of Communism.  Whatever the ideology of Putin today it is for sure not Universalist.  To me, the ideologies of the Western Left seem much more Universalist today that Putin.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/GlasnostGone/status/1581559626675687424

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/Ghost132607472/status/1581376494404005888
https://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1581350137464377345
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1581409175997157377

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1581592583683248128
https://twitter.com/JawadAbubakar7/status/1581412299272658945
https://twitter.com/JawadAbubakar7/status/1581412354956267520