2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[randomusername]

Haha I wonder if they show up to the unveiling of his library. Will he even have a library lol?

Would be ironic if a man who has never read a book has a library.

It'll be just tweets

[gf20202]

Haha I wonder if they show up to the unveiling of his library. Will he even have a library lol?

Would be ironic if a man who has never read a book has a library.

It'll be just tweets

This reminds me that Obama's portrait was never hung in the White House. Can't wait for that moment!

[Mr. Smith]

Okay its over no matter what
https://www.newsmax.com/newsmax-tv/pennsylvania-dick-morris-recount-arizona/2020/11/07/id/995934/?utm_source=thehill

I hope this means Arizona doesn't flip back.

[GeneralMacArthur]

And now Karl Rove is trying to make a thing out of COVID regulations at the inaugural ball and inauguration, and Bret Baier is grinning with delight at the possibility of kicking of the Obama-era obsession with trivialities and making scandals out of absolutely nothing.

We're about to get coffee salute, tan suit, fist-bump, flag pin, Common at the White House poetry slam, Van Jones being a terrorist, Shirley Sherrod being a black supremacist, and so on.  All these trivial fake outrages that Fox News ginned up into outrage news cycles.

[Buzz]

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1325207580629667840

It’s a super spreader event.

They wear masks though. If your idiot in chief had done something as simple as wear a mask, he might have won four more years. If you act irresponsibly, you will face consequences.

20% are not wearing mask and another 30% are wearing them incorrectly

[emailking]

Okay its over no matter what
https://www.newsmax.com/newsmax-tv/pennsylvania-dick-morris-recount-arizona/2020/11/07/id/995934/?utm_source=thehill

That interview is so delusional omg.

[GeorgiaModerate]

97% in.  It's over and they should call it for Biden by now.

for alex.github.io, Trump is in the way for take AZ, he needs 56.8% and is averaging 59%

The math on his site assumes all provisionals will be counted.  When only about half usually are

Yup.  Trump still has a shot at AZ, but alex.github's numbers are a rough estimate. 

According to https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html, only 111,543 remain.

Not sure what to make of this, except that I really hope Maricop and Apache deliver.

OK, I decided to play around with the county numbers from the website.

Assumptions:

50% of the ballots needing a signature by Tuesday will be accepted (this percentage is tweakable).

80% of the provisional ballots will be accepted (this percentage is also tweakable).

All of the ballots waiting for tabulation will be counted.

Then I applied the current county percentages for Biden and Trump to each category, with a 10% bonus for Trump in the provisionals.

This resulted in:

Of the estimated 111,543 ballots (and remember this is an estimate!) 96,342 will be accepted.

Trump will gain 49,868.  Biden will gain 44,841.  Trump nets 5,027.  Trump currently trails by about 19,000.

A few more numbers:

OK, with the new Apache numbers, I have Trump gaining 6193 from the remaining pool, and he trails by 18,610.  This is using the above assumptions, which were:

The numbers from arizona.vote are good.
100% of ballots waiting to be tabulated will be counted.
50% of ballots needing a signature cure will be counted.
80% of provisionals will be counted.

The current county percentages are applied to the first two groups.  In the provisionals, Trump gets a 10% bump and Biden -10%, or a net 20% marginal improvement for Trump.

If instead we assume ALL the ballots will be counted (best case for Trump as it gives him a larger pool from which to make up ground) he nets 7432.

If we also increase his bump in provisionals to 15% (i.e., a net 30% increase in margin), Trump nets 11,979.

If we go back to the 50% and 80% acceptances for the last two categories, but give Trump the net 20% increase in margin for all categories, he nets 17,723 -- which gets him very close. 

So it's doable if he gets VERY favorable partisan breaks in the remaining ballots.  It's difficult but not impossible. 

[Pericles]

And now Karl Rove is trying to make a thing out of COVID regulations at the inaugural ball and inauguration, and Bret Baier is grinning with delight at the possibility of kicking of the Obama-era obsession with trivialities and making scandals out of absolutely nothing.

We're about to get coffee salute, tan suit, fist-bump, flag pin, Common at the White House poetry slam, Van Jones being a terrorist, Shirley Sherrod being a black supremacist, and so on.  All these trivial fake outrages that Fox News ginned up into outrage news cycles.

They must have been so annoyed that Trump was a Republican.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1325207580629667840

It’s a super spreader event.

Yes it is. Too bad you were silent on Trump rallies.

[SN2903]

AZ down to 18k. Whole narrative changes soon when it flips

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

AZ down to 18k. Whole narrative changes soon

Biden still President-Elect

Find a new thing buddy

[SN2903]

The good news is all the stores/businesses in DC and NYC can now take down the boarding that was set up.  There will be no destruction or looting with Trump not winning. 

Not over yet

[Non Swing Voter]

crop Hillary's face on GWB and perfect.

[philly09]

AZ down to 18k. Whole narrative changes soon when it flips

Pima and Apache have yet to finish.

[SN2903]

AZ down to 18k. Whole narrative changes soon

Biden still President-Elect

Find a new thing buddy

Tons of allegations all over the country. It's not official yet.

[SN2903]

AZ down to 18k. Whole narrative changes soon when it flips

Pima and Apache have yet to finish.

Trump will win AZ

[BudgieForce]

AZ is going to get really close. Might end up being closer than Georgia. But I think Biden wins in the end. Not that it matters, but I've grown quite attached to our 306 map. 295 wouldn't have the same oomph.

[SN2903]

AZ is going to get really close. Might end up being closer than Georgia. But I think Biden wins in the end. Not that it matters, but I've grown quite attached to our 306 map. 295 wouldn't have the same oomph.

trump wins AZ then wins GA in recount.  PA mail votes thrown out by SC and trump wins

[Illiniwek]

I'm late to the party, because I had to step away RIGHT as they were calling the election, but:

CONGRATULATIONS TO OUR PRESIDENT-ELECT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR.!!!!!!!!

This really is a special day that shows that our country has turned away from the toxicity of the past four years and chose an America Sith more love, hope, and empathy. Joe Biden also joins a select group by being one of the most respectable, honorable, best men to hold this office.

Though the next four years may be very difficult, I can sleep a little bit easier knowing that we will have Joe Biden at the helm trying his hardest to unite us and keep us safe.

Congratulations to Joe, CONGRATULATIONS TO KAMALA, and congratulations to all of us who at one point or another hopped on board the Amtrak bandwagon to elect Joe and Kamala to the White House.

WE DID IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. will be your President and you will have to deal with it.

[emailking]

The 306 map is amazing. Really hope it holds.

Trump maybe has a whiff and a prayer of getting AZ/GA, but not PA.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Biden will be taking the oath of office on Jan. 20, and some people here will still be saying "It's not over!  The Supreme Court can still step in!"

[Rand]

Biden will be taking the oath of office on Jan. 20, and some people here will still be saying "It's not over!  The Supreme Court can still step in!"

It hurts to lose.

[BudgieForce]

AZ down to 18k. Whole narrative changes soon when it flips

Pima and Apache have yet to finish.

That too. Although these last batches have been weird. We got a Pinal drop that net Biden votes, and an Apache drop that net Trump votes.

[n1240]

AZ is going to get really close. Might end up being closer than Georgia. But I think Biden wins in the end. Not that it matters, but I've grown quite attached to our 306 map. 295 wouldn't have the same oomph.

trump wins AZ then wins GA in recount.  PA mail votes thrown out by SC and trump wins

The probability of all three of these events occurring is less than .0001%. It's also likely that Biden still wins PA even if mail-in ballots received after polls close aren't counted, which would be the only mail-in votes which could potentially be tossed.