2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1323896943618260992

[Vespucci]

Can someone give me a succinct breakdown of what's outstanding in MI, WI, and PA?  I can't find anything decent in the media.

In particular, in PA Biden is down by 13 with 26% of the vote left.  Is there any reason to believe that he can win the remaining vote 2-1?

No there is not

Pennsylvania's mail-in vote leant Democratic by something like 40 points. There's plenty of reason to believe Biden can overcome the margin.

Except there's not. There is literally no reason to believe he can make this up. He needs 75% of the state's outstanding votes, which will not happen

You don't actually know how many votes are left in Pennsylvania, and nobody does. They accept mail-ins that arrive up to three days after Election Day.

Are you even paying attention at all?

John King LITERALLY SAID HE NEEDS 75% OF OUTSTANDING VOTES

Main-in ballots are even more Democratic in PA than other states, so 75% is attainable.

[Pulaski]

Can someone give me a succinct breakdown of what's outstanding in MI, WI, and PA?  I can't find anything decent in the media.

In particular, in PA Biden is down by 13 with 26% of the vote left.  Is there any reason to believe that he can win the remaining vote 2-1?

No there is not

Pennsylvania's mail-in vote leant Democratic by something like 40 points. There's plenty of reason to believe Biden can overcome the margin.

Except there's not. There is literally no reason to believe he can make this up. He needs 75% of the state's outstanding votes, which will not happen

You don't actually know how many votes are left in Pennsylvania, and nobody does. They accept mail-ins that arrive up to three days after Election Day.

Are you even paying attention at all?

John King LITERALLY SAID HE NEEDS 75% OF OUTSTANDING VOTES

Yeah cool, John King doesn't know either.

And if he does, why isn't the race called?

[CityByTheValley]

Don't want to interject, but just wanted to point out that CO has seen a serious swing this year- more than any other state. He's somehow only down by 8 in El Paso compared to 22 for HRC and down 6 in Douglas compared to 18 for HRC. The transformation to safe blue has been complete, and hopefully this state can be a model for NV, AZ, and GA in the coming years.

On the other hand there are some swings that I personally admit to having dismissed as trivial pre-election, but seeing 23 point swings in Miami-Dade and within 5 points in two of the Fajita strips? I'm not sure whether this is HRC being especially strong with Latino voters or Biden fading, but we have seen similar reversions in 2018, although not to this extent, so the answer is not clear.

I'm also saddened to see Dems trailing in Nassau, Suffolk, Rockland, and Erie in NY, making we wonder if these counties are lost due to the police forces living here. This is also especially weird seeing other white upscale suburbs and working class areas nearby trending blue (see Westchester and Rhode Island). Also super strange to see Plymouth bluer than Bristol.

To end on a more upbeat note (for Dems) seeing Johnson, Stafford, Morris, Monmouth, Hunterdon (for now but still !!), Williamson (TX), and Frederick all blue is quite shocking. The margins in Collin, Denton, Delaware, Hamilton, Dallas (IA), El Dorado, Placer, Carver, and Scott are extremely encouraging and make me hopeful for places like Williamson (TN), Warren (OH), Forsyth (GA), St. John's, Collier, and Ozaukee down the line. This may not have been the realignment the board has kept in mind over the past year and many states seem to have defied conventional wisdom and polling (Florida... why) but there are definite bright spots in the Dems futures to take back control of the states making up 413 and beyond.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1323896943618260992

So not quite 75% needed.

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

AP: Nevada at 67% reporting, Trump 2.5 points behind. Around 25,000 votes.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1323896943618260992

So not quite 75% needed.

John King was doing on air quick math so it wasn't super accurate, and 75% is then what got tweeted are shared around since it's the number he said live.

[Alben Barkley]

AP showing Wisconsin with 93% reporting, Trump leading by 110,000 votes. Insurmountable.

Not true, math in this thread has explained why.

[Non Swing Voter]

Georgia lead down to 100k

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

It's almost 3:30 and Trump is leading in every uncalled state other than Nevada.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Suozzi is currently trailing his challenger.
Is he actually going to lose? And does this have much to do with Biden currently being behind there as well?

[GoTfan]

It's almost 3:30 and Trump is leading in every uncalled state other than Nevada.

CALL THE DAMN ELECTION ALREADY

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Remember, PA is showing Trump up in places like Bucks and Chester. Obviously, this won't be anywhere close to the final result. Don't underestimate Biden with the rest of the ballots.

[EliteLX]

Georgia lead down to 100k

Running out of votes buddy :-)

94% reporting per AP - still 2.2% margin.

[Zanas]

Well I'm starting to not feel particularly optimistic for Biden in WI and PA. Only path may be NV-MI-GA, if NV even holds...

[Splash]

Livingston County (exurban Detroit) went from Trump +29 to Trump +18.

It's just hard to envision Trump winning Michigan unless Detroit punches below its weight.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Biden doesn't need Wisconsin or Pennsylvania if Georgia comes through.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Well I'm starting to not feel particularly optimistic for Biden in WI and PA. Only path may be NV-MI-GA, if NV even holds...

With NV, Biden needs 2 of WI, MI, PA, NC, and GA, except that he also needs ME-02 if NC+WI.

[Ye We Can]

It's almost 3:30 and Trump is leading in every uncalled state other than Nevada.

CALL THE DAMN ELECTION ALREADY

"PLS PLS I need to be right"

Can you like shut up lol. Even if you're right nobody needs to see 10 different posts demanding why Wisconsin hasn't been called yet

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I've got to say, 2020 may be the very last time the Democrats run on a "Midwest strategy".

A "sunbelt strategy" might be the way to go from now on.

Demographics are changing and the Democrats need to stop running old white men and women on the ticket.

Except Kamala Harris is not an old white woman. I'm now convinced that Biden made a mistake by selecting her as his running mate. He should have gone with Tammy Duckworth, Cory Booker, or Julian Castro.

What was Kamala even supposed to add to the ticket?

Social credit amongst Clintonite party elites embarrassed by Biden.

[NOVA Green]

Doomsters might Doom...

We still have Millions of Votes left to be Counted.

We can debate the exact numbers in MI, PA, and WI, but regardless with AZ voting DEM plus NE-02, we can hold a loss in one of those states, regardless of results in GA, NC or ME-02,

[tjstarling]

I've got to say, 2020 may be the very last time the Democrats run on a "Midwest strategy".

A "sunbelt strategy" might be the way to go from now on.

Demographics are changing and the Democrats need to stop running old white men and women on the ticket.

Except Kamala Harris is not an old white woman. I'm now convinced that Biden made a mistake by selecting her as his running mate. He should have gone with Tammy Duckworth, Cory Booker, or Julian Castro.

What was Kamala even supposed to add to the ticket?

Social credit amongst Clintonite party elites embarrassed by Biden.

VPs don’t add much period. But Kamala had by far the highest net favorables of all president and vp candidates according to the exit poll.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Doomsters might Doom...

We still have Millions of Votes left to be Counted.

We can debate the exact numbers in MI, PA, and WI, but regardless with AZ voting DEM plus NE-02, we can hold a loss in one of those states, regardless of results in GA, NC or ME-02,

The key thing is this! Millions of votes left to the counted.
This is not a typical election night.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1323896943618260992

So not quite 75% needed.

Wait....there’s only 270k votes left in Philly?  It seems like it should be more like 400k from the reporting % being listed.  If it really is only 270k, that would be bad news for Biden, and also a significant turnout drop from 2016.

[Kuumo]

I'm going to bed now like John King. I might be back here at 7 or 8 am Eastern after I see some more votes get counted. I've definitely been going on a bit of a posting rampage with 67 posts in the last 24 hours. See you tomorrow.