FL-SEN 2022: Nothing to see here

[Schiff for Senate]

Demings raised $12.2M in Q2

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1546841985067122688

All that money is being misspent and will ultimately be proven to be a waste. It's like the millions poured into unwindable races in 2020 (such as KY and SC). Democratic donors should know better and spend their bucks wisely, in races where it actually makes a difference (perhaps ALL the difference) - PA, GA, AZ, NV. Absolutely NOT in a, let's face it, rightward-trending state, against a guy who won last time by 7 points and outran Trump by 6 point. I don't care if Rubio voted against SSM or is running a poor campaign, because neither do Florida voters. HE WILL WIN IN 2020 REGARDLESS OF THE AMOUNT OF MONEY DEMINGS AND FOOLISH DEMOCRATIC DONORS BLOW ON THIS RACE. The same can't be said of Walker or Masters or Oz, so the money should really be going to people in stronger positions like Warnock and Kelly and Fetterman and CCM.

Not sure why people always assume it's an 'either or'. Anyone who is donating to Demings from out of state is likely donating to those candidates too.

Yeah, but why waste even a buck on a race we're going to lose? Better to spend those resources where they'll be much better spent - PA, or GA, or AZ, or NV. All those spare dimes people are throwing into FL are clearly adding up if donors have cumulatively poured over $12 million into this race. These funds should have been allocated better - in the actually competitive races. And I'm fine with this money being wasted in FL if, and only if, FL goes blue, or if PA/GA/AZ/NV all go blue. But if any of PA/GA/AZ/NV very narrowly (as in less than a point) go Republican, and FL goes red too despite the amount of money spent there, then my point will have been proven: that the money was spent very stupidly and had it been better spent Democrats could have been in a better position in the Senate.

[2016]

Demings raised $12.2M in Q2

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1546841985067122688

All that money is being misspent and will ultimately be proven to be a waste. It's like the millions poured into unwindable races in 2020 (such as KY and SC). Democratic donors should know better and spend their bucks wisely, in races where it actually makes a difference (perhaps ALL the difference) - PA, GA, AZ, NV. Absolutely NOT in a, let's face it, rightward-trending state, against a guy who won last time by 7 points and outran Trump by 6 point. I don't care if Rubio voted against SSM or is running a poor campaign, because neither do Florida voters. HE WILL WIN IN 2020 REGARDLESS OF THE AMOUNT OF MONEY DEMINGS AND FOOLISH DEMOCRATIC DONORS BLOW ON THIS RACE. The same can't be said of Walker or Masters or Oz, so the money should really be going to people in stronger positions like Warnock and Kelly and Fetterman and CCM.

Not sure why people always assume it's an 'either or'. Anyone who is donating to Demings from out of state is likely donating to those candidates too.

Yeah, but why waste even a buck on a race we're going to lose? Better to spend those resources where they'll be much better spent - PA, or GA, or AZ, or NV. All those spare dimes people are throwing into FL are clearly adding up if donors have cumulatively poured over $12 million into this race. These funds should have been allocated better - in the actually competitive races. And I'm fine with this money being wasted in FL if, and only if, FL goes blue, or if PA/GA/AZ/NV all go blue. But if any of PA/GA/AZ/NV very narrowly (as in less than a point) go Republican, and FL goes red too despite the amount of money spent there, then my point will have been proven: that the money was spent very stupidly and had it been better spent Democrats could have been in a better position in the Senate.

If Florida goes Blue so would Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania & North Carolina and most likely Georgia, Arizona, Nevada as well. Democrats would have a 55-45 Senate. It would be a D-Wave in Biden Midterm Year. I'd say this Scenario is very unlikely.

[Schiff for Senate]

Demings raised $12.2M in Q2

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1546841985067122688

All that money is being misspent and will ultimately be proven to be a waste. It's like the millions poured into unwindable races in 2020 (such as KY and SC). Democratic donors should know better and spend their bucks wisely, in races where it actually makes a difference (perhaps ALL the difference) - PA, GA, AZ, NV. Absolutely NOT in a, let's face it, rightward-trending state, against a guy who won last time by 7 points and outran Trump by 6 point. I don't care if Rubio voted against SSM or is running a poor campaign, because neither do Florida voters. HE WILL WIN IN 2020 REGARDLESS OF THE AMOUNT OF MONEY DEMINGS AND FOOLISH DEMOCRATIC DONORS BLOW ON THIS RACE. The same can't be said of Walker or Masters or Oz, so the money should really be going to people in stronger positions like Warnock and Kelly and Fetterman and CCM.

Not sure why people always assume it's an 'either or'. Anyone who is donating to Demings from out of state is likely donating to those candidates too.

Yeah, but why waste even a buck on a race we're going to lose? Better to spend those resources where they'll be much better spent - PA, or GA, or AZ, or NV. All those spare dimes people are throwing into FL are clearly adding up if donors have cumulatively poured over $12 million into this race. These funds should have been allocated better - in the actually competitive races. And I'm fine with this money being wasted in FL if, and only if, FL goes blue, or if PA/GA/AZ/NV all go blue. But if any of PA/GA/AZ/NV very narrowly (as in less than a point) go Republican, and FL goes red too despite the amount of money spent there, then my point will have been proven: that the money was spent very stupidly and had it been better spent Democrats could have been in a better position in the Senate.

If Florida goes Blue so would Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania & North Carolina and most likely Georgia, Arizona, Nevada as well. Democrats would have a 55-45 Senate. It would be a D-Wave in Biden Midterm Year. I'd say this Scenario is very unlikely.

I'm confused. How are you certain that OH, WI and NC would go blue if you're not certain that GA, AZ and NV (all states where Democratic chances are less bleak than in OH/WI/NC) would too? Anyway, I more or less agree with you. That's my point: FL ain't going blue. If it does, though, I'd say GA/AZ/NV/WI/PA/NC all do too (this would boost the Democratic total to 54 if you count FL). OH might, but not guaranteed.

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, Demings is the only one who could possibly make this race somewhat competitive so I'm interested to see how it turns out. Even if she does a little better than expected, maybe it'll help downballot races.

Point is though that Rubio has gotten really cocky and seemingly a bit lazy with assuming this seat is safe. He's probably right, but it's never a good look on anyone.

[wbrocks67]

Demings certainly giving it her all. At least she'll have $$ given the incompetent FL Democratic Party.

https://twitter.com/PeterSchorschFL/status/1557763288909365250

[ajc0918]

Survey done for EMILY’s List says Val Demings and Marco Rubio are tied

EMILY’s List — a national group supporting pro abortion rights candidates — released a poll showing Democratic U.S. Rep. Val Demings and Republican U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio tied in Florida’s 2022 U.S. Senate contest.

The poll, done by Change Research, a Democratic polling firm out of California, finds both candidates drew 46% in a survey of likely Florida voters, with 7% saying they are unsure and 2% saying they would not vote.

The poll was shared exclusively with Florida Politics.

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/546419-survey-done-for-emilys-list-says-val-demings-and-marco-rubio-are-tied/


Most interesting: "Rubio is underperforming with white voters, especially white and Republican women.There is a12-point gap between Rubio’s margin and Trump’s margin with white women in this survey (+5Rubio v. +17 Trump), and that gap is 15 points with Republican women (+80 Rubio v. +15 Trump)."

[SnowLabrador]

Rubio will win, and only by slightly less than DeSantis.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rubio will win, and only by slightly less than DeSantis.

There is 15 PERCENT Blk and 26 percent Latino and certainly alot of females that is not true
.
There are many Minorities in the state that are poor too that don't vote R

[Unelectable Bystander]

Survey done for EMILY’s List says Val Demings and Marco Rubio are tied

EMILY’s List — a national group supporting pro abortion rights candidates — released a poll showing Democratic U.S. Rep. Val Demings and Republican U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio tied in Florida’s 2022 U.S. Senate contest.

The poll, done by Change Research, a Democratic polling firm out of California, finds both candidates drew 46% in a survey of likely Florida voters, with 7% saying they are unsure and 2% saying they would not vote.

The poll was shared exclusively with Florida Politics.

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/546419-survey-done-for-emilys-list-says-val-demings-and-marco-rubio-are-tied/


Most interesting: "Rubio is underperforming with white voters, especially white and Republican women.There is a12-point gap between Rubio’s margin and Trump’s margin with white women in this survey (+5Rubio v. +17 Trump), and that gap is 15 points with Republican women (+80 Rubio v. +15 Trump)."

Ahh yes white women don’t quite trust Marco. What they really want is a nice republican like Trump or DeSantis

[wbrocks67]

I said it in the poll thread, but it's not like it's out of the question that Demings has done to Rubio what Ryan has done to Vance all Summer.

Rubio, from what I can tell, has done little to no advertising all Summer and has only raised a fraction of what Demings has. Demings meanwhile is raking in money and seemingly has been up on TV/digital all summer long.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Survey done for EMILY’s List says Val Demings and Marco Rubio are tied

EMILY’s List — a national group supporting pro abortion rights candidates — released a poll showing Democratic U.S. Rep. Val Demings and Republican U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio tied in Florida’s 2022 U.S. Senate contest.

The poll, done by Change Research, a Democratic polling firm out of California, finds both candidates drew 46% in a survey of likely Florida voters, with 7% saying they are unsure and 2% saying they would not vote.

The poll was shared exclusively with Florida Politics.

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/546419-survey-done-for-emilys-list-says-val-demings-and-marco-rubio-are-tied/


Most interesting: "Rubio is underperforming with white voters, especially white and Republican women.There is a12-point gap between Rubio’s margin and Trump’s margin with white women in this survey (+5Rubio v. +17 Trump), and that gap is 15 points with Republican women (+80 Rubio v. +15 Trump)."

Ahh yes white women don’t quite trust Marco. What they really want is a nice republican like Trump or DeSantis

Lol D's, like BIDEN win the PVI of women 55(45% Biden did Kerry, Hillary and Gore tied among White Women
 
.Obama ran with Biden in 2008/12 too and Obama won FL

[Xing]

Demings has run a decent campaign so far, but the circumstances just aren’t there for her to win or even make it particularly close. Even if Democrats have a better night than expected, it would take a blue wave to unseat Rubio, and that’s just not happening.

[It’s so Joever]

TBH it would be a VERY Florida thing for the state to vote randomly for Demings while the rest of the country is in a red wave.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Demings raised $12.2M in Q2

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1546841985067122688

All that money is being misspent and will ultimately be proven to be a waste. It's like the millions poured into unwindable races in 2020 (such as KY and SC). Democratic donors should know better and spend their bucks wisely, in races where it actually makes a difference (perhaps ALL the difference) - PA, GA, AZ, NV. Absolutely NOT in a, let's face it, rightward-trending state, against a guy who won last time by 7 points and outran Trump by 6 point. I don't care if Rubio voted against SSM or is running a poor campaign, because neither do Florida voters. HE WILL WIN IN 2020 REGARDLESS OF THE AMOUNT OF MONEY DEMINGS AND FOOLISH DEMOCRATIC DONORS BLOW ON THIS RACE. The same can't be said of Walker or Masters or Oz, so the money should really be going to people in stronger positions like Warnock and Kelly and Fetterman and CCM.

Not sure why people always assume it's an 'either or'. Anyone who is donating to Demings from out of state is likely donating to those candidates too.

Yeah, but why waste even a buck on a race we're going to lose? Better to spend those resources where they'll be much better spent - PA, or GA, or AZ, or NV. All those spare dimes people are throwing into FL are clearly adding up if donors have cumulatively poured over $12 million into this race. These funds should have been allocated better - in the actually competitive races. And I'm fine with this money being wasted in FL if, and only if, FL goes blue, or if PA/GA/AZ/NV all go blue. But if any of PA/GA/AZ/NV very narrowly (as in less than a point) go Republican, and FL goes red too despite the amount of money spent there, then my point will have been proven: that the money was spent very stupidly and had it been better spent Democrats could have been in a better position in the Senate.

I'm always a critic of wasteful campaign spending and think the DCCC are a bunch of subliterate clowns, but spending in Florida means the Republicans will also have to spend some money in Florida. Demmings is too qualified to just let her broadcast her record 24/7 for six months.

[wesmoorenerd]

I said it in the poll thread, but it's not like it's out of the question that Demings has done to Rubio what Ryan has done to Vance all Summer.

Rubio, from what I can tell, has done little to no advertising all Summer and has only raised a fraction of what Demings has. Demings meanwhile is raking in money and seemingly has been up on TV/digital all summer long.

Unfortunately, Rubio is an incumbent with basically 100% name ID that Demings doesn't have much of an opportunity to try and define the same way Fetterman and Ryan have been able to define Oz and Vance. Demings' best bet is a reversion to the mean of sorts among the demographics that have been slipping away from the Dems in Florida in recent cycles.

[wbrocks67]

I said it in the poll thread, but it's not like it's out of the question that Demings has done to Rubio what Ryan has done to Vance all Summer.

Rubio, from what I can tell, has done little to no advertising all Summer and has only raised a fraction of what Demings has. Demings meanwhile is raking in money and seemingly has been up on TV/digital all summer long.

Unfortunately, Rubio is an incumbent with basically 100% name ID that Demings doesn't have much of an opportunity to try and define the same way Fetterman and Ryan have been able to define Oz and Vance. Demings' best bet is a reversion to the mean of sorts among the demographics that have been slipping away from the Dems in Florida in recent cycles.

True, but I wonder if there is a notion to Rubio not being as popular as assumed. He performed incredibly strong in 2016, but it's kind of the same thing with Johnson, where people just assume that because he outperformed 6 years ago, that it will also happen again. Rubio has kind of debased himself and gone full MAGA since 2016, so I feel like there is a universe where he's put off more voters and Demings is able to kind of "re-introduce" voters to how he has changed since 2016. Don't know if that's what's happening at all here but I think it's possible.

Either way, I do think it's accurate to say that up to this point, Rubio has been sleepwalking through this race. And maybe he can. But he's definitely taken it for granted up to this point.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We are doing so well in FL, OH, NC, and PA that even if lose the H we will have 53 Senators as wave insurance for 24 PA, NC, FL, OH equals 53 without GA Runoffs

We will see next W what MQK has on Barnes even if Johnson is narrowly ahead it's gonna be Barnes or Johnson up 47/43 and Evers up 49/45 on Michels

[wbrocks67]

Look, I'm not saying Rubio is losing, but these campaigns seem to be going in two different directions

https://twitter.com/grantxfox/status/1558980062820683776

https://twitter.com/valdemings/status/1557037768169111554

[wbrocks67]

i loled at this

https://twitter.com/Scott_Maxwell/status/1561700714631544834

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Steve Konraki has FL, NC SEN as Tossups and WI and PA, AZ and NV

There are 2 viul D and 5 vul R Sen/GOV
KELLY, OR D GOV
DUNLEAVY, AZ, KEMP MD, MA R GOV

KELLY, WARNOCK D SEN
RUBIO, NC, OH, PA, JOHNSON R SEN


We can get a 303 map GOV and FL, NC and OH SEN and who knows about LA

Biden isn't at 42% he's at 47/52 approval in the Rassy polls

[UWS]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/17/florida-police-incident-demings-00052526

Wow, the Florida police is investigating the incident in which Demings' security detail pushed a tracker on the ground and in which she defended their actions even after that event.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/17/florida-police-incident-demings-00052526

Wow, the Florida police is investigating the incident in which Demings' security detail pushed a tracker on the ground and in which she defended their actions even after that event.

Did Demmings do it?  No?  Then no one cares, politically speaking.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/17/florida-police-incident-demings-00052526

Wow, the Florida police is investigating the incident in which Demings' security detail pushed a tracker on the ground and in which she defended their actions even after that event.

Did Demmings do it?  No?  Then no one cares, politically speaking.

I mean UWS did write a TL where Rubio is President and his approval rating never falls below like 70%

[UWS]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/17/florida-police-incident-demings-00052526

Wow, the Florida police is investigating the incident in which Demings' security detail pushed a tracker on the ground and in which she defended their actions even after that event.

Did Demmings do it?  No?  Then no one cares, politically speaking.

My point specifically is that she didn't have the guts to call that out or to fire that person.

In addition, Demings is a tax and spend socialist out of step with the needs of everyday Floridians. In 2017, she voted against the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and she voted against permanently extending the 2017 tax cuts. She voted against the Protecting Family and Small Business Tax Cuts Act of 2018 that provides permanent tax cuts to individuals and small-business tax cuts. And two weeks ago, even when the majority of Americans agree that we are in a Bidencession (as the GDP shrinks for 2 quarters in a row at 0.9% pace), Demings voted for that tax and spend bill that will do nothing to reduce the inflation and so she voted to drive up health care cost for 220 million Americans (which will hurt notably the seniors in Florida that are key to victory in Florida), to add $300 million in Green New Deal funding, to increase the size of the IRS through the adiction of 87,000 IRS agents (making it larger than the Pentagon, State Department, FBI and Border Control combined) and to increase taxes on Americans making less than $400,000 a year. It isn't surprising that Val Demings has 0 experience in economics.

But on the other hand, Rubio is the only candidate in this race who has chaired the Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship. He created the Paycheck Protection Program, which supported more than six million Florida jobs and saved nearly half a million Florida small businesses when the pandemic hit. And he successfully fought to double the child tax credit for working families and put more money in the pockets of Floridians. Those policies along with the tax-cut, free enterprise and small government policies adopted by DeSantis resulted that 2 million jobs have been created in Florida since April 2020, that Florida's unemployment rate is now at 2.7 % (the lowest rate since February 2020) and that Florida has a $20 billion budget surplus.

[Oppo]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/17/florida-police-incident-demings-00052526

Wow, the Florida police is investigating the incident in which Demings' security detail pushed a tracker on the ground and in which she defended their actions even after that event.

Did Demmings do it?  No?  Then no one cares, politically speaking.

My point specifically is that she didn't have the guts to call that out or to fire that person.

In addition, Demings is a tax and spend socialist out of step with the needs of everyday Floridians. In 2017, she voted against the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and she voted against permanently extending the 2017 tax cuts. She voted against the Protecting Family and Small Business Tax Cuts Act of 2018 that provides permanent tax cuts to individuals and small-business tax cuts. And two weeks ago, even when the majority of Americans agree that we are in a Bidencession (as the GDP shrinks for 2 quarters in a row at 0.9% pace), Demings voted for that tax and spend bill that will do nothing to reduce the inflation and so she voted to drive up health care cost for 220 million Americans (which will hurt notably the seniors in Florida that are key to victory in Florida), to add $300 million in Green New Deal funding, to increase the size of the IRS through the adiction of 87,000 IRS agents (making it larger than the Pentagon, State Department, FBI and Border Control combined) and to increase taxes on Americans making less than $400,000 a year. It isn't surprising that Val Demings has 0 experience in economics.

But on the other hand, Rubio is the only candidate in this race who has chaired the Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship. He created the Paycheck Protection Program, which supported more than six million Florida jobs and saved nearly half a million Florida small businesses when the pandemic hit. And he successfully fought to double the child tax credit for working families and put more money in the pockets of Floridians. Those policies along with the tax-cut, free enterprise and small government policies adopted by DeSantis resulted that 2 million jobs have been created in Florida since April 2020, that Florida's unemployment rate is now at 2.7 % (the lowest rate since February 2020) and that Florida has a $20 billion budget surplus.

Lol of course he’s the only candidate who chaired the Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship, he’s the only candidate who is an incumbent senator