FL-SEN 2022: Nothing to see here (user search)
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  FL-SEN 2022: Nothing to see here (search mode)
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Author Topic: FL-SEN 2022: Nothing to see here  (Read 30607 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: June 09, 2021, 06:22:22 AM »

Demings has the best shot out of anyone to beat Rubio.

Obviously an uphill battle, but the 'defund the police' and 'socialism' stuff won't land on her at least.

Also very smart of her to put an emphasis straight out of the gate that she lowered crime during her tenure.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: June 09, 2021, 12:00:11 PM »

Good video, though I would focused less on the orange buffoon and more address economic issues. Demings for sure is an A-tier candidate and our best shot to bring down Rubio, who's a spineless coward. Her law enforcement background is definitely helpful and makes "Defund the police" fearmongering attacks fall flat.

Anyway, Lean R for now. It's a Dem-midterm and FL is a slightly red leaning state. These are severe obstacles to overcome in a closely divided state. However, if Demings loses by more than 4 pts without major campaign errors, it tells us that candidate quality in FL really doesn't matter much, if anything. It's not a must win pickup, but it would be bittersweet to retire Rubio and likely protect or expand our senate majority.

I get that this entire 'candidate quality' discourse is extremely subjective and volatile and all, but in what universe is Val Demings an A-tier candidate or even a particularly strong recruit? If your main criterion for "strong candidate" is "can energize an already largely energized base without appealing to any center-right/Trump voters/R-trending cohort," then I agree that she’s a strong candidate, but I think we know how this movie ends by now, don’t we?

Bc she's basically the antithesis (or closest) of a Democratic candidate could be to the GOP's talking points (defund the police, socialism, etc.)
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: June 09, 2021, 01:32:58 PM »

Bc she's basically the antithesis (or closest) of a Democratic candidate could be to the GOP's talking points (defund the police, socialism, etc.)

Err.... Val Demings is a reliable liberal and literally served as House impeachment manager in Trump's impeachment trial. She’s very easy to paint as some out-of-touch partisan and would have close to zero crossover appeal in a GE. The idea that Republicans won’t be able to paint her as a career politician who embodies "GOP talking points" is ludicrous.

The only worthwhile attack the GOP has right now that made a difference was socialism and crime, not really 'career politician'. And Demings is clearly not a socialist, and her police record shows you can't hit her on crime, really.

To say she has 'zero crossover appeal' in the GE is ridiculous
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #3 on: June 11, 2021, 05:33:13 AM »

I'm not saying Hispanics in Florida are not *not* becoming more Republican, but I think I'd wait at least one more cycle on that data point before saying it was common knowledge. 2020 election was weird, and Hispanics/Latinos seem to give incumbent presidents the benefit of the doubt. Not to mention, that demo got *more* Democratic from 2016 to 2018.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #4 on: June 12, 2021, 09:01:20 AM »

UWS,
Biden lost Florida not because of the Hispanics. He lost it because African-Americans in South Florida did not turn out in the Numbers Democrats expected.

Demings doesn't create a huge amount of enthusiasm among AA in FL.

They needed someone like Obama or Gillum again!

She would be the first black female senator from FL, and first black senator from FL, correct? So I don't believe that
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #5 on: June 12, 2021, 06:09:18 PM »

UWS,
Biden lost Florida not because of the Hispanics. He lost it because African-Americans in South Florida did not turn out in the Numbers Democrats expected.

Demings doesn't create a huge amount of enthusiasm among AA in FL.

They needed someone like Obama or Gillum again!

She would be the first black female senator from FL, and first black senator from FL, correct? So I don't believe that

This analysis is so superficial

how is it superficial? what i'm saying is just like Obama getting record black turnout in 2008. when voters see a candidate in themselves, who has never done it before, they are usually more often to feel excited about that candidate. Demings would be a history making candidate in FL, so why wouldn't she excite at least a chunk of black voters?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #6 on: June 13, 2021, 08:10:34 AM »

UWS,
Biden lost Florida not because of the Hispanics. He lost it because African-Americans in South Florida did not turn out in the Numbers Democrats expected.

Demings doesn't create a huge amount of enthusiasm among AA in FL.

They needed someone like Obama or Gillum again!

She would be the first black female senator from FL, and first black senator from FL, correct? So I don't believe that

This analysis is so superficial

how is it superficial? what i'm saying is just like Obama getting record black turnout in 2008. when voters see a candidate in themselves, who has never done it before, they are usually more often to feel excited about that candidate. Demings would be a history making candidate in FL, so why wouldn't she excite at least a chunk of black voters?

Saying that black voters will be energized to vote for someone because they are black is the definition of superficial analysis

you're really watering down what i said and leaving out a lot of context so i'm not going to bother with this conversation anymore
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #7 on: June 16, 2021, 05:43:52 AM »

I find this incredibly smart & interesting. Dems need to start fighting fire with fire on FB.

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wbrocks67
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« Reply #8 on: July 08, 2021, 11:16:18 AM »

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wbrocks67
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« Reply #9 on: July 08, 2021, 03:26:55 PM »


tbh the Rubio number is more impressive than the Demings numbers

Not really, Demings just announced on June 9th. Those #s from her are literally 3 weeks of the quarter.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #10 on: April 06, 2022, 09:20:46 AM »

It's too bad Demings isn't running for GOV. She'd be a way better prospect than Crist or Fried.

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wbrocks67
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« Reply #11 on: July 12, 2022, 09:08:35 AM »

Demings raised $12.2M in Q2

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1546841985067122688
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #12 on: July 16, 2022, 07:48:15 AM »


Rubio raised only $4.5M

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1548067401748492291
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #13 on: July 20, 2022, 08:08:48 AM »

.... is this the best Rubio has?

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wbrocks67
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« Reply #14 on: July 20, 2022, 01:44:58 PM »

and Rubio really trying his best to make this a real race

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wbrocks67
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« Reply #15 on: July 25, 2022, 09:37:13 AM »

Why is Rubio doubling down on this? Saying that same-sex marriage is a 'fake problem'? Also, pretty sure most people would agree that marriage equality is a bigger day to day issue than... flight cancellations.

all of this in FL no less

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wbrocks67
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« Reply #16 on: July 26, 2022, 04:43:07 PM »


All that money is being misspent and will ultimately be proven to be a waste. It's like the millions poured into unwindable races in 2020 (such as KY and SC). Democratic donors should know better and spend their bucks wisely, in races where it actually makes a difference (perhaps ALL the difference) - PA, GA, AZ, NV. Absolutely NOT in a, let's face it, rightward-trending state, against a guy who won last time by 7 points and outran Trump by 6 point. I don't care if Rubio voted against SSM or is running a poor campaign, because neither do Florida voters. HE WILL WIN IN 2020 REGARDLESS OF THE AMOUNT OF MONEY DEMINGS AND FOOLISH DEMOCRATIC DONORS BLOW ON THIS RACE. The same can't be said of Walker or Masters or Oz, so the money should really be going to people in stronger positions like Warnock and Kelly and Fetterman and CCM.

Not sure why people always assume it's an 'either or'. Anyone who is donating to Demings from out of state is likely donating to those candidates too.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #17 on: July 27, 2022, 08:27:38 AM »

Honestly, Demings is the only one who could possibly make this race somewhat competitive so I'm interested to see how it turns out. Even if she does a little better than expected, maybe it'll help downballot races.

Point is though that Rubio has gotten really cocky and seemingly a bit lazy with assuming this seat is safe. He's probably right, but it's never a good look on anyone.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #18 on: August 11, 2022, 11:23:06 AM »

Demings certainly giving it her all. At least she'll have $$ given the incompetent FL Democratic Party.

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wbrocks67
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« Reply #19 on: August 11, 2022, 05:40:57 PM »

I said it in the poll thread, but it's not like it's out of the question that Demings has done to Rubio what Ryan has done to Vance all Summer.

Rubio, from what I can tell, has done little to no advertising all Summer and has only raised a fraction of what Demings has. Demings meanwhile is raking in money and seemingly has been up on TV/digital all summer long.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #20 on: August 12, 2022, 08:07:07 AM »

I said it in the poll thread, but it's not like it's out of the question that Demings has done to Rubio what Ryan has done to Vance all Summer.

Rubio, from what I can tell, has done little to no advertising all Summer and has only raised a fraction of what Demings has. Demings meanwhile is raking in money and seemingly has been up on TV/digital all summer long.

Unfortunately, Rubio is an incumbent with basically 100% name ID that Demings doesn't have much of an opportunity to try and define the same way Fetterman and Ryan have been able to define Oz and Vance. Demings' best bet is a reversion to the mean of sorts among the demographics that have been slipping away from the Dems in Florida in recent cycles.

True, but I wonder if there is a notion to Rubio not being as popular as assumed. He performed incredibly strong in 2016, but it's kind of the same thing with Johnson, where people just assume that because he outperformed 6 years ago, that it will also happen again. Rubio has kind of debased himself and gone full MAGA since 2016, so I feel like there is a universe where he's put off more voters and Demings is able to kind of "re-introduce" voters to how he has changed since 2016. Don't know if that's what's happening at all here but I think it's possible.

Either way, I do think it's accurate to say that up to this point, Rubio has been sleepwalking through this race. And maybe he can. But he's definitely taken it for granted up to this point.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #21 on: August 15, 2022, 08:25:28 AM »

Look, I'm not saying Rubio is losing, but these campaigns seem to be going in two different directions



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wbrocks67
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« Reply #22 on: August 22, 2022, 06:00:16 PM »

i loled at this

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wbrocks67
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« Reply #23 on: August 23, 2022, 07:24:41 PM »

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wbrocks67
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« Reply #24 on: August 26, 2022, 07:50:52 AM »

Maybe I'm a hack but suddenly this race is viable.

Florida is a strongly pro-choice state, that position, even for someone who this race leans towards, is completely untenable.
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