Most likely upset out of OH, CO, WA, and IA

[7,052,770]

538 odds (Deluxe):
17% Ryan wins Ohio
9% O'Dea wins Colorado
9% Smiley wins Washington
4% Franken wins Iowa

While these odds aren't independent technically, I think it's really unlikely that Ryan and one of the Republicans both win,  so we're basically looking at a > 1/4 chance that one of these 4 wins Tuesday, but which is the most likely?

You can make a case for O'Dea or Smiley if you think that the polls are more likely to underestimate Republicans.

[Eraserhead]

Ask me after that Selzer poll tomorrow.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think it's Smiley for a few reasons
1) Vance is already starting to pull away with polling in this race, Ryan just seems unable to keep it competitive as it was earlier this year. RCP average is Vance+5
2) O'Dea has tried, but I think Bennett is going to take this one by a comfortable margin. The polling never really tightened and O'Dea seems to struggle with the GOP base. RCP average is Bennett+5.3
3) Iowa is a weird one, as polls for this race have beeen few and far between. Barring a blue wave, I just don't think voters are going to throw out Chuck Grassley out although is margin will certainly narrow and he could be held to single digits. He has lost significant crossover support, and his age might be a turnoff factor as well. I just don't see Trump voters abandoning ship to vote for a Democrat in a red leaning year. I agree with Eraserhead though that we should wait for the Selzer poll though.

Smiley on the other hand is very much still in the race. Murray's lead has tightened to just 3 points on RCP. Altough we don't have much polls for this race, it's an important note that she hasn't managed to pull away in this race from the summer unlike Vance - if anything it's gotten quite a bit closer. Even 538 has shown her polling lead go down from double digits to now 6 points. Smiley is also making a very big push at the end with her "New mom in town" bus tour. I expect Murray to win the race, but this is probably seat 55 for the GOP if that somehow happens and not Colorado.

[Mr.Phips]

None of these.  CO will be the closest at around six points.  OH will be eight points and WA will be 10.  iA will be double digits.

[S019]

Probably Colorado, but none of them will happen

[DS0816]

Tim Ryan will not be winning Ohio U.S. Senate.

[Figueira]

Vance is a bad candidate and Ohio was a pure swing state very recently, so that one. Washington is too Democratic a state, and honestly so is Colorado at this point (and the polls don't show it close). Iowa could be close but it's hard to imagine Grassley actually losing.

Why wasn't Florida included in this?

[bagelman]

It really depends on what type of wave this is and what type of polling error we get. A general R polling error is what we got in 2020 and 2021 and would clearly put Ohio and Iowa out of reach as it did in 2020. It's hard for me to imagine Washington being an easier flip than Colorado though.

A general D polling error, possible only if Roe v. Wade is a bigger deal than we think it is at this point, would allow for Iowa and Ohio. I think if the Selzer poll is another Grassely +3 bomb then Iowa might be the real shoker. Ohio may be more urban but it's also more Appalachian and Vance is surging in the polls.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OH Murray, Bennet, Fetterman, Shapiro are winning 55/45

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If I were Rs I would be nervous about OK Special and SD Jaimie Smith is only behind by 4 and if Jaimie Smith win so can Bengs pull a Heidikamper

If it's a blue wave Mullin can lose he is only ahead 47/41 Lankford is gonna get 60/40

Especially, since Joy Hofmeister even in R Amber INTERGRATED is completetive

[Figueira]

I know I said Ohio earlier but I'm now thinking the correct answer might actually be Iowa. More uncertainty, and the polls have moved a bit towards Vance recently.

[Person Man]

Put Odea meant Ryan.

[Calthrina950]

It's hard for me to see an upset in any of these states. Grassley is more likely than not to win by double digits, and I still suspect that Murray is going to win by double digits. Bennet and Vance both look on track to win by high single digits.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It really depends on what type of wave this is and what type of polling error we get. A general R polling error is what we got in 2020 and 2021 and would clearly put Ohio and Iowa out of reach as it did in 2020. It's hard for me to imagine Washington being an easier flip than Colorado though.

A general D polling error, possible only if Roe v. Wade is a bigger deal than we think it is at this point, would allow for Iowa and Ohio. I think if the Selzer poll is another Grassely +3 bomb then Iowa might be the real shoker. Ohio may be more urban but it's also more Appalachian and Vance is surging in the polls.

Murray is gonna win 55/45 along with Bennet, Fetterman and Shapiro sorry

[Senator Incitatus]

I think Colorado has a <10% chance of flipping while Washington has a <5% chance.

[Skill and Chance]

Colorado, but all are unlikely.

[MT Treasurer]

Colorado, but all are unlikely.

This, though I could see CO-07 (and VA-10) happening on a really big night. If CO-07 flips, O'Dea likely comes within three points.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Ohio is the only one that could realistically happen, so Ohio, but I guess it’s still pretty unlikely.

[Bismarck]

Ohio just because the other 3 have about zero chance of happening. Grassley will never lose. If I had to rank I’d say Ohio > Washington > Colorado > Iowa

[Crumpets]

Ryan has actually led in several polls, which I don't think is something any of the other underdogs can claim.

[SCNCmod]

I may be totally off- But I still think the big surprise race ppl are talking about on election night- is Mike Franken being Iowa's new Senator. (And I also do not see the other 3 choices happening).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IA is GONE

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Ryan, but that isn't saying much.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

     Ryan, but that isn't saying much.

Despite the decreasing power of incumbency, the (vast?) majority of flips on congressional level tend to be in open seats.
I voted for Ohio also.