FL-SEN 2022: Nothing to see here

[2016]

Marco Rubio's FB Announcement

Not even a week has gone by since our election and Florida’s HUGE red wave and Democrats have already placed me under attack. Their sights for the next two years will be set on turning Florida BLUE in 2022. There’s a reason my only two enemies are Communist China and the Radical Left. It’s because I’m not afraid to speak out against them and their radical schemes to ruin our country. I’m ready for this fight and I welcome it. If you’d like to join me in my fight to protect our country’s freedoms from the Radical Left click here >>>

Yeah, that sounds very much like a Run in 2022.

[2016]

Likely Republican as of now, but things can change. Rubio is just a great fit for this state.

Cubans will totally go bonkers if they see someone like DWS or Val Demings on the other side and come out in droves for him. Rubio's Cuban Heritage is helping him a lot especially in Miami-Dade. He outperformed Trump by a GAZILLON down there in 2016.

I think Demings or DWS will challenge him!

[2016]

Pouring over the Data in Florida it has become quite clear that FL-Democrats need someone from the St. Petersburg/Tampa Bay or Central Florida/I-4 Corridor Area if they want to make this Race competitive.

Rep. Stephanie Murphy, Rep. Darren Soto or Rep. Val Demings need to run here.

Makes sense for me now that apparently President-elect Biden is pushing Demings to run.

Not only got Rubio some 43 % in Miami-Dade in 2016, he beat Patrick Murphy in Pinellas & Hillsborough.

If the Democrats run someone from South Florida like Ted Deutch or Debbie Wasserman-Schultz they are going to lose big again.

[2016]

Pouring over the Data in Florida it has become quite clear that FL-Democrats need someone from the St. Petersburg/Tampa Bay or Central Florida/I-4 Corridor Area if they want to make this Race competitive.

Rep. Stephanie Murphy, Rep. Darren Soto or Rep. Val Demings need to run here.

Makes sense for me now that apparently President-elect Biden is pushing Demings to run.

Not only got Rubio some 43 % in Miami-Dade in 2016, he beat Patrick Murphy in Pinellas & Hillsborough.

If the Democrats run someone from South Florida like Ted Deutch or Debbie Wasserman-Schultz they are going to lose big again.

I don’t see what the problem is with Deutch?

Democrats from South Florida are almost never going to win Statewide. The Reason why Charlie Crist made the 2014 Governor Race against Rick Scott competitive is because overperformed in the St. Pete/Tampa Bay Area.

Democrats need Candidates either from the St. Pete/Tampa/I4-Corridor or from the Northern Part like Gwen Graham.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/MadelainePisani/status/1333766836920479744

Allan Ellison is no more than a C-Lister for the Democrats here.

Waiting on Decisions from Rep. Darren Soto, Rep. Stephanie Murphy and Rep. Val Demings.

If all 3 pass on the Race I am going to move FL-SEN to likely R.

[2016]

The best Candidate for Democrats to run against Rubio would be a "Self-Funder". FL does have very expensive Media Markets. Not sure how someone like Jolly, Demings, Murphy, Crist or Soto would cope with that.

[2016]

Marco Rubio now OFFICIALLY announced his Re-Election Campaign:
Link

I have every intention of being on that ballot in November of 2022, and I feel very good about the account we’ll be able to bring to the people of Florida.

There you go!

[2016]

Both, Rubio and DeSantis will easily win Re-Election. I find the notion that Crist could beat DeSantis totally laughable. Crist could not beat an unpopular Rick Scott in 2014 where Scott should have lost amid his poor Approvals as Governor back then.

I doubt Rep. Stephanie Murphy could beat Rubio. Marco would crush her in Southern Florida. Murphy might not even win the Democratic Senate Nomination with her moderate stance on the issues. As we saw in 2018 Party Primaries in Florida are becoming increasingly more liberal for the Democrats see the Gillum/Graham Race and increasingly more conservative for Republicans see the DeSantis/Putnam Race.

I am tired of KanyeWests aka Olowakandi Nonsense Predictions.

[2016]

Demings will lose big! Rubio needs to make this entire Election about Demings being an Impeachment Manager.

Impeachment Managers usually don't fare very well in Florida see Bill McCollum who was an Impeachment Manager in the Clinton Trail.

[2016]

Nothing to see here. Likely R. Please don't waste a ton of money on this @ DSCC

Our Campaign for Senate is totally dependant on Charlie Crist and if he can gain momentum in Gov race,  if Elections were decided a yr before the Election Scott Brown would be Senator, He was also leading Shaheen just like Sununu is leading Hassan.

LOL, this is totally incorrect. Scott Brown NEVER EVER led a single Poll against Shaheen until October 2014.

[2016]

LOL,
The notion by Olawakandi that 2022 will be a "Blue Wave" is just downright obscure fantasy!

The Unemployment could be beyond 10 % once people finally starting to look for work after the Unemployment Benefits run out.

[2016]

Impeachment Managers usually don't fare very well in Florida see Bill McCollum who was an Impeachment Manager in the Clinton Trail.

Was this a serious take or sarcasm? I agree that Demings wouldn't get much/any crossover support but that has to do with being a standard Democrat, not an impeachment manager.

Demings is a Socialist. All of them in Florida are. In fact the entire Country is run by a Socialist.

[2016]

There’s no harm in running a good candidate here and I’ll never understand why Atlas seems to think it’s bad strategy to run strong candidates in as many races as possible.  If nothing else, it tends to boost down-ballot base turnout and gives good wave/scandal insurance.

If Atlas had their way, there would be no Democrats running in any Lean/Tossup races during a Democratic midterm.

That isn't the Point! The Point is the "Atlas Double Standards". John James, who ran two good Senate Campaigns, overperforming in both Election has been dubbed as "Pennerial Loser" while Charlie Cirst who lost Statewide as a Republican, Independent and Democrat is being called the "Big Hero" who gets Demings over the Finish Line.

Both Florida Races won't be close. Rubio is likely overperforming DeSantis a bit.
FL-SEN Rubio 8-11 Points
FL-GOV DeSantis 5-7 Points

[2016]

The notion of a Democratic Wave in 2022 is blatantly ridiculous when every other measure says that won't be the case. Democrats would need a D+8 Wave in 2022 to flip Florida from Red to Blue.

And Crist would not be able to brooker Deals with the Republican-controlled State Legislature. Secondly every Executive Order would likely be struck down by the Conservative Florida State Supreme Court.

[2016]

Demings is the second weakest of the Congressional bench who could run here (after Wasserman Schultz), but other than those who are rabidly against cops, she should unite the Democratic base (and even then, those people will vote for her over Rubio in November).

I'd put this as Lean R at the moment, and it could go to either tossup or Likely R, depending on how the cycle shakes out.

While this likely will be an R wave, even R waves have surprising results. Remember, Mark Pryor's victory in Arkansas in 2002 was also in the middle of what was essentially an R wave.

2002 was not an R-Wave, more of a Republican ripple. I mean you had Democratic Governors like Janet Napolitano, Bill Richardson, Kathleen Sebelius, Brad Henry, etc. elected.

Rubio would need to botch this up pretty bad to lose it!

[2016]

Demings is the second weakest of the Congressional bench who could run here (after Wasserman Schultz), but other than those who are rabidly against cops, she should unite the Democratic base (and even then, those people will vote for her over Rubio in November).

I'd put this as Lean R at the moment, and it could go to either tossup or Likely R, depending on how the cycle shakes out.

While this likely will be an R wave, even R waves have surprising results. Remember, Mark Pryor's victory in Arkansas in 2002 was also in the middle of what was essentially an R wave.

An R wave and Rs have not taking the lead on the Generic ballot, it's a Neutral Environment right now, the D's would replicate the 306 EC map WI, MI, PA, NH, would go D and GA would go to a Runoff

It would be a 51/49 Senate while GA goes to a Runoff and we would win WI, MI and PA Gov, it's only an R wave if Biden becomes a 40% Prez, he's a Majority Prez

A neutral Environment means Republicans hold both Florida Seats!

[2016]

FL-SEN/FL-7
Stephanie Murphy running for Re-Election
https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1396875471963500548
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/24/stephanie-murphy-marco-rubio-senate-490563

They cleared the Field for Demings!

[2016]

FL-SEN/FL-7
Stephanie Murphy running for Re-Election
https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1396875471963500548
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/24/stephanie-murphy-marco-rubio-senate-490563

They cleared the Field for Demings!

Murphy is probably their strongest candidate, so it is strategically smarter from the D’s perspective to send sacrificial lambs against Rubio and DeSantis in 2022. A Skeletor vs Murphy Senate Race in 2024 would be very interesting, but I think Scott still wins fairly easily.

I make a BOLD bet: Murphy won't win her own House Race next year effectivly ending the Democrats Chances to beat Rick Scott in 2024.

[2016]

FL-SEN/FL-7
Stephanie Murphy running for Re-Election
https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1396875471963500548
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/24/stephanie-murphy-marco-rubio-senate-490563

They cleared the Field for Demings!

Murphy is probably their strongest candidate, so it is strategically smarter from the D’s perspective to send sacrificial lambs against Rubio and DeSantis in 2022. A Skeletor vs Murphy Senate Race in 2024 would be very interesting, but I think Scott still wins fairly easily.

I make a BOLD bet: Murphy won't win her own House Race next year effectivly ending the Democrats Chances to beat Rick Scott in 2024.

She can just run in Demmings’ seat which is safe Dem.

Yes, she could BUT Aramis Ayala said that she would run to replace Demings in the House. Highly unlikely Murphy would beat Ayala in a D-Primary.

[2016]

Bc she's basically the antithesis (or closest) of a Democratic candidate could be to the GOP's talking points (defund the police, socialism, etc.)

Err.... Val Demings is a reliable liberal and literally served as House impeachment manager in Trump's impeachment trial. She’s very easy to paint as some out-of-touch partisan and would have close to zero crossover appeal in a GE. The idea that Republicans won’t be able to paint her as a career politician who embodies "GOP talking points" is ludicrous.

The only worthwhile attack the GOP has right now that made a difference was socialism and crime, not really 'career politician'. And Demings is clearly not a socialist, and her police record shows you can't hit her on crime, really.

To say she has 'zero crossover appeal' in the GE is ridiculous

There is a difference between what she does in Orlando and what she does in Congress.

Biden has a 60% RV Approvals, he didn't have that Approvals when he was running as a candidate and we lost FL by 3%, those are Approvals that Trump can only dream, the same Approvals Bush W had in 2002/ when Rs netted seats after 9/11

That 60 % is nationwide, not statewide. And actually, Biden has an approval rating of just 45 % in Florida.

https://www.fau.edu/newsdesk/articles/biden-approval-rating.php

So I'm sorry to tell you this : Florida is not Massachusetts.

The Election is 500 days from now and we haven't seen one Sen poll in FL

Yes there has been one. Though it didn't include Demings, it showed Rubio beating  Stephanie Murphy by 10. And Murphy likely would have been a stronger candidate than Demings. So if Murphy couldn't beat Rubio in a poll, how can we expect Demings to do so?

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/428393-sunburn-the-morning-read-of-whats-hot-in-florida-politics-5-14-21/

Demings will drive strong black turnout.  Plus, she might be moderate enough to appeal to SEFL Latinos, and her law-and-order credentials will keep her from getting destroyed by white voters.

Demings is a Career Politician unlike Andrew Gillum who was a new fresh voice for Florida back in 2018!

I seriously doubt Demings will excite Floridas African Americans the same way Barack Obama and Andrew Gillum did!

Biden did not get Obamas Black Turnout in FL in 2020 and neither did Hillary in 2016.

[2016]

How can you vote 100 % of the time with Nancy Pelosi ... and not be a socialist?

Because Nancy Pelosi is not a socialist. Hope this helps

She is! Are you kidding us or what? The whole Democratic Congressional Agenda is the Agenda of radicals. They want to make the inclusive United States of America like any other European Country which is totally wrong. The USA is still a Center-Right Country!

[2016]

UWS,
Biden lost Florida not because of the Hispanics. He lost it because African-Americans in South Florida did not turn out in the Numbers Democrats expected.

Demings doesn't create a huge amount of enthusiasm among AA in FL.

They needed someone like Obama or Gillum again!

[2016]

Yeah, McGrath and Harrison outraised McConnell and Graham too.

Exactly, it likely won't change the overall outcome, but is at least a clear indication for energy on the ground. And this race will be more competitive than the two mentioned.

Wrong, Rubio will win by the same margin Crist beat Rod Smith in 2006, 10 Points. He will certainly beat Demings by a bigger margin compared to Patrick Murphy in 2016.

[2016]

The Q-Pac released a couple of Days ago has some interesting tidbits:

Not only has Rubio a +11 JA Rating Overall (49-38) but he also has a 50-36 positive Rating with Hispanics and a nearly 3 in 10 positive Rating with African Americans.

If his Job Rating with Hispanics stay above water there is no way Demings can win.

[2016]

I think Rubio is easily a substantial favorite but it's nice to see the narrative shift back towards sanity after the whole "Rubio is on track to literally win Miami-Dade" thing we've been suffering through recently

I don't think Rubio is going to win Miami-Dade County. At best, he will make it as close as Trump did last year, and as he himself did in 2010 and 2016 (so an ~5-8% loss). I also expect Demings to win Seminole and Duval Counties, and to have a fighting shot at Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties. She's not going to lose by double digits, and I think it's more likely that she keeps the margin of defeat respectable for next year.

Demings is favored to win Hillsborough- the GOP is trying to have a reset there(although that might not work) and candidate quality is still important but the county leans Democratic overall. Pinellas could swing either way, I don't think saying a fighting chance is accurate for Demings. However, none of this will push Demings to the top unless she can run up the score in South Florida and in the blue areas of Central Florida and North Florida and narrow losing margins in the red exurbs of Central Florida, Southwest Florida, and North Florida. Everywhere matters in Florida.

I certainly don't think Demings is going to win, but it's not a stretch to say that her performance could very well be a respectable one. I agree with you that she will probably carry Hillsborough County, and I understand what you're saying about Pinellas County, although I said she had a "fighting chance" because that county is usually very tight between the two parties, unless if there's a blowout.

In the end Demings will be an overhyped Candidate just like Mary Burke was against Scott Walker in 2014 and Democrats even thought she could beat Walker. These Democrats live in a different universe. Rubio will win by a bigger margin compared to 2016 when beat Patrick Murphy by nearly 7 Points. He just needs to define Demings as an Socialist. That's all he has to do and Demings will be done for.