FL-SEN 2022: Nothing to see here

[President Johnson]

Yeah, McGrath and Harrison outraised McConnell and Graham too.

Exactly, it likely won't change the overall outcome, but is at least a clear indication for energy on the ground. And this race will be more competitive than the two mentioned.

[GALeftist]

I think Rubio is easily a substantial favorite but it's nice to see the narrative shift back towards sanity after the whole "Rubio is on track to literally win Miami-Dade" thing we've been suffering through recently

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1413161594423582724

tbh the Rubio number is more impressive than the Demings numbers

Not really, Demings just announced on June 9th. Those #s from her are literally 3 weeks of the quarter.

[Calthrina950]

I think Rubio is easily a substantial favorite but it's nice to see the narrative shift back towards sanity after the whole "Rubio is on track to literally win Miami-Dade" thing we've been suffering through recently

I don't think Rubio is going to win Miami-Dade County. At best, he will make it as close as Trump did last year, and as he himself did in 2010 and 2016 (so an ~5-8% loss). I also expect Demings to win Seminole and Duval Counties, and to have a fighting shot at Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties. She's not going to lose by double digits, and I think it's more likely that she keeps the margin of defeat respectable for next year.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 304 map, Rassy Approvals show a 51/49% I don't know why wbrooks keep promoting these fundraising numbers, I don't care about it, due my situation

He posted HEGAR numbers along with Landslide Lyndon and said she would beat Cornyn

Unless VR passed, Rs are a lock for the H loss seats in IA, IS and D's will win 52/48 S and 291 Govs Winning MA, NH, AZ loosing KS


It's gonna be Reverse of 2018 DH, RS but identical Govs
RH, DS and 291 Govs

[2016]

Yeah, McGrath and Harrison outraised McConnell and Graham too.

Exactly, it likely won't change the overall outcome, but is at least a clear indication for energy on the ground. And this race will be more competitive than the two mentioned.

Wrong, Rubio will win by the same margin Crist beat Rod Smith in 2006, 10 Points. He will certainly beat Demings by a bigger margin compared to Patrick Murphy in 2016.

[Pollster]

We've been hired by an IE that is planning on spending up to eight figures to elect Demings if viable. Will start polling shortly after Labor Day and will be doing intensive qualitative research as well (my first time doing focus groups in Spanish).

This will be my first time polling in Florida since the Crist vs. Scott/Graham vs. Southerland work we did in 2014. We had both tracking at a dead even tie four days before the election. I haven't yet reviewed the work done in 2018 while I was on sabbatical but anticipate I'll become very familiar with it soon.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2016 believes those fake polls that showed DeSantis up by 60/40%

[Biden his time]

We've been hired by an IE that is planning on spending up to eight figures to elect Demings if viable. Will start polling shortly after Labor Day and will be doing intensive qualitative research as well (my first time doing focus groups in Spanish).

This will be my first time polling in Florida since the Crist vs. Scott/Graham vs. Southerland work we did in 2014. We had both tracking at a dead even tie four days before the election. I haven't yet reviewed the work done in 2018 while I was on sabbatical but anticipate I'll become very familiar with it soon.

Seriously saddening, that tens of millions of dollars down the drain (and a great candidate) down the drain for Florida Dems against the electoral juggernaut Rubio.



What threshold is needed for a candidate to be "viable" though? Within 10%? Or within 3%?

[Girlytree]

I wonder who wins the neo-Dixiecrats in the panhandle for the primary. They protest voted for Grayson in 2016. Will they do so again?

[Pollster]

We've been hired by an IE that is planning on spending up to eight figures to elect Demings if viable. Will start polling shortly after Labor Day and will be doing intensive qualitative research as well (my first time doing focus groups in Spanish).

This will be my first time polling in Florida since the Crist vs. Scott/Graham vs. Southerland work we did in 2014. We had both tracking at a dead even tie four days before the election. I haven't yet reviewed the work done in 2018 while I was on sabbatical but anticipate I'll become very familiar with it soon.

Seriously saddening, that tens of millions of dollars down the drain (and a great candidate) down the drain for Florida Dems against the electoral juggernaut Rubio.



What threshold is needed for a candidate to be "viable" though? Within 10%? Or within 3%?

Generally viability is determined less from the current state of the race and more from whether or not a fairly simulated campaign brings the candidate to at least the margin of error.

More often than not, viability assessments are run by candidates who know that they're viable already (because of their name recognition from previous offices or runs and/or because of the dynamics of the geography they're running in) and want to use the results to raise money. But sometimes they do indeed reveal new/unlikely places that are viable for competing in.

[Utah Neolib]

There is a possibility of Val Demings winning
-
If a Category 5 Hurricane hits the panhandle on Election Day, Demings has a real chance

[Non Swing Voter]

Is Rubio the lamest empty suit in the current senate?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Is Rubio the lamest empty suit in the current senate?

He is also somehow the most prominent empty suit, which is a bit of an oxymoron, but that might be to his advantage. It's why he'll outperform DeSuckass.

[2016]

The Q-Pac released a couple of Days ago has some interesting tidbits:

Not only has Rubio a +11 JA Rating Overall (49-38) but he also has a 50-36 positive Rating with Hispanics and a nearly 3 in 10 positive Rating with African Americans.

If his Job Rating with Hispanics stay above water there is no way Demings can win.

[Non Swing Voter]

The Q-Pac released a couple of Days ago has some interesting tidbits:

Not only has Rubio a +11 JA Rating Overall (49-38) but he also has a 50-36 positive Rating with Hispanics and a nearly 3 in 10 positive Rating with African Americans.

If his Job Rating with Hispanics stay above water there is no way Demings can win.

Quinnipiac was garbage at polling last time and they seem to have "corrected" this by just inflating Republican numbers.  He definitely doesn't have a 3/10 positive rating with African Americans, and if that were close to reality his job approval wouldn't be +11 overall.  The polling industry is becoming a joke.

[MARGINS6729]

I think Rubio is easily a substantial favorite but it's nice to see the narrative shift back towards sanity after the whole "Rubio is on track to literally win Miami-Dade" thing we've been suffering through recently

I don't think Rubio is going to win Miami-Dade County. At best, he will make it as close as Trump did last year, and as he himself did in 2010 and 2016 (so an ~5-8% loss). I also expect Demings to win Seminole and Duval Counties, and to have a fighting shot at Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties. She's not going to lose by double digits, and I think it's more likely that she keeps the margin of defeat respectable for next year.

Demings is favored to win Hillsborough- the GOP is trying to have a reset there(although that might not work) and candidate quality is still important but the county leans Democratic overall. Pinellas could swing either way, I don't think saying a fighting chance is accurate for Demings. However, none of this will push Demings to the top unless she can run up the score in South Florida and in the blue areas of Central Florida and North Florida and narrow losing margins in the red exurbs of Central Florida, Southwest Florida, and North Florida. Everywhere matters in Florida.

[Calthrina950]

I think Rubio is easily a substantial favorite but it's nice to see the narrative shift back towards sanity after the whole "Rubio is on track to literally win Miami-Dade" thing we've been suffering through recently

I don't think Rubio is going to win Miami-Dade County. At best, he will make it as close as Trump did last year, and as he himself did in 2010 and 2016 (so an ~5-8% loss). I also expect Demings to win Seminole and Duval Counties, and to have a fighting shot at Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties. She's not going to lose by double digits, and I think it's more likely that she keeps the margin of defeat respectable for next year.

Demings is favored to win Hillsborough- the GOP is trying to have a reset there(although that might not work) and candidate quality is still important but the county leans Democratic overall. Pinellas could swing either way, I don't think saying a fighting chance is accurate for Demings. However, none of this will push Demings to the top unless she can run up the score in South Florida and in the blue areas of Central Florida and North Florida and narrow losing margins in the red exurbs of Central Florida, Southwest Florida, and North Florida. Everywhere matters in Florida.

I certainly don't think Demings is going to win, but it's not a stretch to say that her performance could very well be a respectable one. I agree with you that she will probably carry Hillsborough County, and I understand what you're saying about Pinellas County, although I said she had a "fighting chance" because that county is usually very tight between the two parties, unless if there's a blowout.

[Roll Roons]

Also something I realized - Marco is from Miami and he's on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. So he is Mr. 305 and Mr. Worldwide!

¡Dalé!

[Pollster]

She is running for state Senate, not Rubio's seat.

[2016]

I think Rubio is easily a substantial favorite but it's nice to see the narrative shift back towards sanity after the whole "Rubio is on track to literally win Miami-Dade" thing we've been suffering through recently

I don't think Rubio is going to win Miami-Dade County. At best, he will make it as close as Trump did last year, and as he himself did in 2010 and 2016 (so an ~5-8% loss). I also expect Demings to win Seminole and Duval Counties, and to have a fighting shot at Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties. She's not going to lose by double digits, and I think it's more likely that she keeps the margin of defeat respectable for next year.

Demings is favored to win Hillsborough- the GOP is trying to have a reset there(although that might not work) and candidate quality is still important but the county leans Democratic overall. Pinellas could swing either way, I don't think saying a fighting chance is accurate for Demings. However, none of this will push Demings to the top unless she can run up the score in South Florida and in the blue areas of Central Florida and North Florida and narrow losing margins in the red exurbs of Central Florida, Southwest Florida, and North Florida. Everywhere matters in Florida.

I certainly don't think Demings is going to win, but it's not a stretch to say that her performance could very well be a respectable one. I agree with you that she will probably carry Hillsborough County, and I understand what you're saying about Pinellas County, although I said she had a "fighting chance" because that county is usually very tight between the two parties, unless if there's a blowout.

In the end Demings will be an overhyped Candidate just like Mary Burke was against Scott Walker in 2014 and Democrats even thought she could beat Walker. These Democrats live in a different universe. Rubio will win by a bigger margin compared to 2016 when beat Patrick Murphy by nearly 7 Points. He just needs to define Demings as an Socialist. That's all he has to do and Demings will be done for.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

I think Rubio is easily a substantial favorite but it's nice to see the narrative shift back towards sanity after the whole "Rubio is on track to literally win Miami-Dade" thing we've been suffering through recently

I don't think Rubio is going to win Miami-Dade County. At best, he will make it as close as Trump did last year, and as he himself did in 2010 and 2016 (so an ~5-8% loss). I also expect Demings to win Seminole and Duval Counties, and to have a fighting shot at Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties. She's not going to lose by double digits, and I think it's more likely that she keeps the margin of defeat respectable for next year.

Demings is favored to win Hillsborough- the GOP is trying to have a reset there(although that might not work) and candidate quality is still important but the county leans Democratic overall. Pinellas could swing either way, I don't think saying a fighting chance is accurate for Demings. However, none of this will push Demings to the top unless she can run up the score in South Florida and in the blue areas of Central Florida and North Florida and narrow losing margins in the red exurbs of Central Florida, Southwest Florida, and North Florida. Everywhere matters in Florida.

I certainly don't think Demings is going to win, but it's not a stretch to say that her performance could very well be a respectable one. I agree with you that she will probably carry Hillsborough County, and I understand what you're saying about Pinellas County, although I said she had a "fighting chance" because that county is usually very tight between the two parties, unless if there's a blowout.

In the end Demings will be an overhyped Candidate just like Mary Burke was against Scott Walker in 2014 and Democrats even thought she could beat Walker. These Democrats live in a different universe. Rubio will win by a bigger margin compared to 2016 when beat Patrick Murphy by nearly 7 Points. He just needs to define Demings as an Socialist. That's all he has to do and Demings will be done for.

I'd trust the black police chief far more to not be a socialist, as opposed to some Cuban.

[Ferguson97]

I don’t expect Demings to win, but I’ll give the Democrats credit that this is a much better investment than South Carolina or Kentucky lol.

[UWS]

I think Rubio is easily a substantial favorite but it's nice to see the narrative shift back towards sanity after the whole "Rubio is on track to literally win Miami-Dade" thing we've been suffering through recently

I don't think Rubio is going to win Miami-Dade County. At best, he will make it as close as Trump did last year, and as he himself did in 2010 and 2016 (so an ~5-8% loss). I also expect Demings to win Seminole and Duval Counties, and to have a fighting shot at Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties. She's not going to lose by double digits, and I think it's more likely that she keeps the margin of defeat respectable for next year.

Demings is favored to win Hillsborough- the GOP is trying to have a reset there(although that might not work) and candidate quality is still important but the county leans Democratic overall. Pinellas could swing either way, I don't think saying a fighting chance is accurate for Demings. However, none of this will push Demings to the top unless she can run up the score in South Florida and in the blue areas of Central Florida and North Florida and narrow losing margins in the red exurbs of Central Florida, Southwest Florida, and North Florida. Everywhere matters in Florida.

I certainly don't think Demings is going to win, but it's not a stretch to say that her performance could very well be a respectable one. I agree with you that she will probably carry Hillsborough County, and I understand what you're saying about Pinellas County, although I said she had a "fighting chance" because that county is usually very tight between the two parties, unless if there's a blowout.

In the end Demings will be an overhyped Candidate just like Mary Burke was against Scott Walker in 2014 and Democrats even thought she could beat Walker. These Democrats live in a different universe. Rubio will win by a bigger margin compared to 2016 when beat Patrick Murphy by nearly 7 Points. He just needs to define Demings as an Socialist. That's all he has to do and Demings will be done for.

I'd trust the black police chief far more to not be a socialist, as opposed to some Cuban.

Demings has already showed how socialist she is has repeatedly proven to be out of step with Florida as she voted 94 % of the time with the Squad and 100 % of the time with Nancy Pelosi, supported the Green New Deal and the THRIVE Agenda even though gas prices are at the highest rate since 2014. And even in the aftermath of Hurricane Irma, she voted against Tax Relief for the victims of Hurricane Irma.

And Cuban Americans are the key to victory in a statewide race in Florida. But Demings refused to weigh in on the comments or join her colleagues in a resolution condemning Bernie Sanders’ praise of Castro. The moreover that Demings is endorsed by Luis Gutierrez, a champion of open borders, former member of the Puerto Rican Socialist Party who defended Oscar Lopez Rivera, the leader of the Puerto Rican terrorist group FALN, which was responsible for deadly bombings in New York City in the 70s and 80s. Meanwhile, Rubio introduced an amendment to provide free Internet to Cubans on the island and it passed the Senate.

https://www.nrsc.org/press-releases/senate-hopeful-val-demings-refuses-to-call-out-socialism-2021-07-13/

https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-resolution/868?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%5B%22diaz-balart%22%5D%7D&r=1&s=2

https://www.nrsc.org/press-releases/open-borders-champion-and-former-socialist-party-member-endorses-val-demings-2021-06-29/

https://www.breitbart.com/midterm-election/2021/06/28/amnesty-champion-luis-gutierrez-backs-florida-democrat-senate-candidate-val-demings/

The moreover that she recently voted against against amendments that would prohibit the legalization of illegal immigrants who are members of a criminal gang, have been convicted of a firearms offense, have beem convicted for a sexual offense.

https://republicans-judiciary.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/2-DUIs.pdf

And just two months ago, Demings once again sided against the police by calling for closure of key ICE Detention Center, the Glades County Detention Center in Moore Haven, Florida, even though America is facing a critical and serious border crisis. Recently she voted against an amendment that would prevent federal grant money from going to local governments that defunded their police force. That's why she is a puppet of the Defund the Police movement and can't be trusted.

https://republicans-judiciary.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Defund-the-Police.pdf

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/madelineleesman/2021/07/29/val-demmings-ice-detention-center-n2593295?fbclid=IwAR3PqglmQh8o2v7AyQTngZJ0_DnCAqMxbrQLXl9O1m9nJnx0-lCRj7Z-Sec

It's a troubling pattern. Listing all the police equipment that Demings tried her best to dismantle sounds like an auctioneer selling off law enforcement.

The Minneapolis Department that Demings called to dismantle helped restore and maintain order in the context of threat from the Communist League of America during the 1934 Minneapolis general strike.

ICE that Demings refused to support helped undermine MS-13’s drug trafficking activities.

The law enforcement drones that Demings opposed helped to survey disaster sites and identify areas and people that need help, including during Hurricane Irma and helped deliver life jackets and rescue ropes; and also helped the Daytona Beach police used thermal images to discover a hot spot in a hotel fire.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephenrice1/2019/10/07/10-ways-that-police-use-drones-to-protect-and-serve/?sh=699495265806

The controlled aircraft, including the Sky Knight Helicopter, that Demings opposed, rescued two boys who had been swept away during the 1991 San Gabriel Flood Control Channel Incident.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sky_Knight_Helicopter_Program#The_1991_San_Gabriel_Flood_Control_Channel_Incident

The law enforcement vehicles that Demings opposed helped the FBI to stop a 2013 hostage standoff in Mobile, Alabama and helped them to rescue a 5-year-old child who was held hostage for a week.

https://web.archive.org/web/20131030144751/http://www.fbi.gov/news/news_blog/photos-of-alabama-bunker-exterior-released/

The MRAPs, that Demings opposed, helped the U.S. Department of Homeland Security Rapid Response Teams to assist people affected by Hurricane Isaac; and were crucial for the Department of Homeland Security to fighting illegal narcotics smuggling.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MRAP#U.S._law_enforcement_usage

https://military.wikia.org/wiki/MRAP#Law_enforcement

Against, against, against. And now Demings wants to be Senator from Florida and partner of law enforcement? Police and law enforcement equipped with what? Spitballs?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We already know Demings won't win unless it's a blue wave, and as long as Biden Approvals are mediocre, but it's not impossible, DeSantis came back during debated from six pts down against Gillium

Otherwise it's a 304 map and I haven't even seen Demings that much

You Govv has it 45/50% Approvals, I doubt that due to our leads in Cali and VA, if Biden winds up at 50/45 it's a 304 map, like Last time, but if it's more than that we have a chance