Ohio redistricting thread

[Torie]

I would just note that if in say my Pub gerrymander light map, the Dems get the upper hand in Hamilton County, and have two competitive CD's with OH-08 and OH-07 (with a shot at OH-09 to boot), they might be wise to accept that, rather than hoping for another time at bat in 4 years, and being leashed in the interim to 3 CD's. It is a risk-reward ratio calculus. They will not look very good in rejecting what looks like a clean map because they want more, as the lynch pin for changing the law via a referendum or whatever.

[palandio]

If you draw R gerrymanders, shouldn't you all try to keep one R seat per R incumbent instead of double-bunking them. They won't be happy!

For an overview on the locations of their homes take a look at my map obove with the red and blue stars.

Two of the three Pub incumbents can be accommodated without messing up the map much (assuming the guy in Holmes is near the OH-05 line). The double bunk with the guy in Muskegon cannot, so that guy needs to move to Canton. Messing up a map to accommodate an incumbent  because he or she won't move their sorry butt is a no go in my world.

Messing up a map to accomodate an incumbent
1. is a no go from a "good government" perspective,
2. is not ideal from a partisan perspective. State parties that have drawn their gerrymanders without too much respect for their own incumbent have often been more successful in the past.
3. is something that occurs often enough and state parties have to find their way to deal with their incumbents' demands.

By the way I think that it should be enough if a representative lives near his/her district and wins the primary and the general election. No need to live in the district.

[Stuart98]

Fair-ish map I guess, more of a very light GOP gerrymander, but whatever


https://davesredistricting.org/join/f0acdedc-4596-44d7-8ae1-bd171342fecc

I think the possibility of a Franklin/Delaware seat is underrated especially since Democrats can push for a commission if they don't get the concessions that they want, and it's tough to justify tri cuts of Franklin for any reason other than partisanship, when you can get neat cuts like this.

Your 15th is illegal; all districts must either be completely contained in a county or contain a whole county.

Your 14th and 4th are legal, but ugly as hell.

[Stuart98]

Did a fair cube root rule map of Ohio.
Several counties are split more times than is legally permitted. In the case of Cuyahoga, Hamilton, and Franklin, this is because it's difficult or impossible to stick few enough cube root rule districts inside them. In the case of Butler and Lorain, this is because it was the only way to ensure that the 2nd and 18th districts (respectively) contained a whole county. This results in an annoying snake in the 2nd's case. Clinton won 10/24 districts in 2016. Biden probably lost the 13th (Clinton barely won it) but he might have picked up the 2nd and 17th.

[lfromnj]

Fair-ish map I guess, more of a very light GOP gerrymander, but whatever


https://davesredistricting.org/join/f0acdedc-4596-44d7-8ae1-bd171342fecc

I think the possibility of a Franklin/Delaware seat is underrated especially since Democrats can push for a commission if they don't get the concessions that they want, and it's tough to justify tri cuts of Franklin for any reason other than partisanship, when you can get neat cuts like this.

How is that Toledo to Lorraine a GOP gerrymander?

You literally created a 70% and a 65% Trump district surrounded a +7 Clinton district.

LOL.

Anyway there is 0 chance of that Franklin district coming. Its relatively easy to justify a tricut of Franklin such that all the exurbs can be with the Franklin suburbs and have one Franklin district. Infact Democrat hacks in 2012 were perfectly fine with the Franklin tricut.. Your map is actually a Democratic Gerrymander arguably with that bullsh**t Springfield district D hacks keep trying to include. SW Ohio is too easy to make.

One Cinci
One surrounding sububan Cinci.
Then use the leftovers in the north of Warren County to put with Dayton as there is some clear suburban development too far from the city of Cinci so therefore it logically goes with Dayton.

And even if Democats pushed for Franklin to only be split once the GOP would obviously do it from the South with Lancaster and Fairfield rather than shoving in Delaware. Also putting Grove city and other areas.

[lfromnj]

Did a fair cube root rule map of Ohio.
Several counties are split more times than is legally permitted. In the case of Cuyahoga, Hamilton, and Franklin, this is because it's difficult or impossible to stick few enough cube root rule districts inside them. In the case of Butler and Lorain, this is because it was the only way to ensure that the 2nd and 18th districts (respectively) contained a whole county. This results in an annoying snake in the 2nd's case. Clinton won 10/24 districts in 2016. Biden probably lost the 13th (Clinton barely won it) but he might have picked up the 2nd and 17th.

How is any of this anything but a D wet dream gerrymander?

[lfromnj]

Can anyone give a reason that isn't for a D/R Gerrymander not to draw this SW Ohio? You can maybe nitpick about the 10k people taken from Hamilton or the where does Dayton get the last 30k after Warren+Montgomery+Greene but in reality SW Ohio has 3 pretty obvious and clear COI's and as its population growth has been pretty stable it should be pretty similar for 2020 numbers.

The Cinci district is perfect.

The only problem with the Suburban Cinci district is the inclusion of those NE Warren rural areas but that northern suburban Warren area has development more slanted towards Dayton so therefore that goes with Dayton in an also pretty compact 3 county district with some extra pop. One could maybe argue to take in Preble instead of Miami County to avoid a weird arm but honestly its not that weird or long of an arm.

[Sol]

^The fair map of Ohio which I've been picking to death working on has something similar.

Do you know of a way to draw a variation of that which doesn't split townships? I can't seem to figure one out.

[lfromnj]

^The fair map of Ohio which I've been picking to death working on has something similar.

Do you know of a way to draw a variation of that which doesn't split townships? I can't seem to figure one out.

Don't you have to split one township either way when one goes for one man 1 vote perfectly with only +- 1 person deviation allowed on the real maps? Especially consider we are working with population ESTIMATES and that too not for 2020 I think you are wasting your time.

I find it a bit too much to go for 0 township splits.

[lfromnj]

Accidently used 2010 pop estimates for the above map. This is 2015/2018 estimates.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/32162d0c-7d90-4871-8556-2cc37d538bb4

Anyone making a good Ohio map really should make a copy of this and then work on the rest. There a lot more debate in what to do in the Cbus area and especially NE Ohio/Toledo but SW Ohio is really easy  with 15 districts and the current population. The only real debate here should be what towns to remove from Hamilton to give to the 2nd(generally either take the Western exurban area, or the NE  super rich suburban area), then where should you get the remaining few thousand people to add to the Dayton district.

Doing this probably won't affect the rest of your map anyway so it should be done.

[Sol]

Ok, here's what I've been working on wrt: Ohio. Not super happy with it though.

[Sol]

And here's the map image (yay!)

[EastAnglianLefty]

Springfield looks a bit odd in the 6th. Might be worth considering giving that to the 4th and rotating territory via the 9th and the 10th?

[lfromnj]

Interesting map



Anyway I looked at your map and then looked at the original streetcar suburbs in Cleveland. Although streetcars are obviously defunct by now they created the first pattern of expansion and are now the most developed suburbs as they were the original ones. So I aimed to keep all 5 of them together. Slight difference from yours.

The West Cleveland district is  pushed 3.5 points right from yours and the Eastern Cleveland is pushed 1 point to the right regarding 2016 Trump numbers.

Merely a nitpick

Anyway,however my standards are super strict for SW ohio due to how obvious to make those 3 districts.  There are more options for the rest of the state.

[Sol]

Here's a map which readjusts Springfield. I also made a few edits in Cuyahoga, but not exactly the same as what you suggested lfromnj--I don't love the odd boundary between the Eastern suburbs district and Cleveland. Does this put the streetcar suburbia properly in Cleveland?

[lfromnj]

Here's a map which readjusts Springfield. I also made a few edits in Cuyahoga, but not exactly the same as what you suggested lfromnj--I don't love the odd boundary between the Eastern suburbs district and Cleveland. Does this put the streetcar suburbia properly in Cleveland?

Yeah thats fine, I didn't like it either (that boundary with regards to Pike)and I am willing to split one more township but turns out you didn't have to in your estimates.

I would probably also be willing to split a northern Summit town rather than taking an inner ring Akron suburb with the Eastern Cleveland district. Although northern Summit is still Akron Suburbia Its closer to a mix between the 2 areas.

One last thing is I would try to find a way to put Union County with the northern Cbus district although if it would ruin the rest of your map don't do it. Although by my guess It might help you reunite the Newark area.

[Sol]

Here's a map which readjusts Springfield. I also made a few edits in Cuyahoga, but not exactly the same as what you suggested lfromnj--I don't love the odd boundary between the Eastern suburbs district and Cleveland. Does this put the streetcar suburbia properly in Cleveland?

Yeah thats fine, I didn't like it either (that boundary with regards to Pike)and I am willing to split one more township but turns out you didn't have to in your estimates.

I would probably also be willing to split a northern Summit town rather than taking an inner ring Akron suburb with the Eastern Cleveland district. Although northern Summit is still Akron Suburbia Its closer to a mix between the 2 areas.

One last thing is I would try to find a way to put Union County with the northern Cbus district although if it would ruin the rest of your map don't do it.

Is Union County really much of a CoI with greater Columbus?

Union and Madison are kind of awkward--they don't fit in great with Ashland and Mansfield, or with Southern Ohio. However, they have a lot of people so if you put them in the 4th you have to lose a lot of people.

[lfromnj]

Here's a map which readjusts Springfield. I also made a few edits in Cuyahoga, but not exactly the same as what you suggested lfromnj--I don't love the odd boundary between the Eastern suburbs district and Cleveland. Does this put the streetcar suburbia properly in Cleveland?

Yeah thats fine, I didn't like it either (that boundary with regards to Pike)and I am willing to split one more township but turns out you didn't have to in your estimates.

I would probably also be willing to split a northern Summit town rather than taking an inner ring Akron suburb with the Eastern Cleveland district. Although northern Summit is still Akron Suburbia Its closer to a mix between the 2 areas.

One last thing is I would try to find a way to put Union County with the northern Cbus district although if it would ruin the rest of your map don't do it.

Is Union County really much of a CoI with greater Columbus?

Union and Madison are kind of awkward--they don't fit in great with Ashland and Mansfield, or with Southern Ohio. However, they have a lot of people so if you put them in the 4th you have to lose a lot of people.

Union fits better with the northern Columbus district than the Newark area. Again very small here and just IMO. You also split Granville from Newark.





Anyway this is what I would do when working from your map.

Partisan impact is neglible and only shifts it by 0.2 to the right by 2016 numbers and I would bet with Biden numbers this district is slightly to the left of yours.

One of my smaller Ohio redistricting rules is always keep Delaware and Union together.

Overall yes I say Union is a COI in the area due to its higher income.  Its clear that a large portion of its income is probably due to Columbus commuters.

[Sol]

Yeah, but if you look at population densities it seems like Lancaster (and Fairfield) are the obvious fits with Columbus:

Image by JimIrwin, license on Wikipedia. No alterations

Plus NW Fairfield and SW Lancaster are really close to the city, and just seem more Columbus-oriented than more exurban Union.

To be honest if it weren't for Ohio redistricting laws I'd just add Palatka, Elba, and Violet Township to the Delaware district and call it a day.

[lfromnj]

Yeah, but if you look at population densities it seems like Lancaster (and Fairfield) are the obvious fits with Columbus:

Image by JimIrwin, license on Wikipedia. No alterations

Plus NW Fairfield and SW Lancaster are really close to the city, and just seem more Columbus-oriented than more exurban Union.

To be honest if it weren't for Ohio redistricting laws I'd just add Palatka, Elba, and Violet Township to the Delaware district and call it a day.

https://www.dispatch.com/news/20200521/census-data-puts-union-and-delaware-counties-among-fastest-growing-housing-markets-in-us

Albiet thats 2010 data. By 2020 you already starting seeing growth in the SE corner of Union. Overall there is a micro community going on between the Marysville/Delaware/Dublin area. Considering you can't really put NW fairfield I think putting Union is pretty reasonable especially when you go by the  UMC nature of the northern Cbus district.

Union County specifically its southeastern corner has seen particularly aggressive growth, Schill said. Growing communities in Dublin, Plain City and Jerome Township, coupled with the presence of the Honda manufacturing plant and research and development facilities, have helped to make Union County the fastest-growing county in Ohio.

As we all agreed earlier C-bus city borders are such a mess its useless. However Union does share Dublin with Delaware and Franklin.

The question with your map isn't what exactly belongs with Columbus but rather what belongs with areas like Upper Arlington/Dublin etc.

[cvparty]

Here's a map which readjusts Springfield. I also made a few edits in Cuyahoga, but not exactly the same as what you suggested lfromnj--I don't love the odd boundary between the Eastern suburbs district and Cleveland. Does this put the streetcar suburbia properly in Cleveland?

Yeah thats fine, I didn't like it either (that boundary with regards to Pike)and I am willing to split one more township but turns out you didn't have to in your estimates.

I would probably also be willing to split a northern Summit town rather than taking an inner ring Akron suburb with the Eastern Cleveland district. Although northern Summit is still Akron Suburbia Its closer to a mix between the 2 areas.

One last thing is I would try to find a way to put Union County with the northern Cbus district although if it would ruin the rest of your map don't do it.

Is Union County really much of a CoI with greater Columbus?

Union and Madison are kind of awkward--they don't fit in great with Ashland and Mansfield, or with Southern Ohio. However, they have a lot of people so if you put them in the 4th you have to lose a lot of people.

in addition to lfromnj’s points, if you look at the 2020 swing map, union actually had the biggest swing against trump after warren and delaware, which reflects its increasing suburbanization as development spills over from delaware/north franklin

edit: also if you intend on only splitting franklin once, then you won’t even have to worry about this because franklin+delaware will have just enough population for two districts with the 2020 census numbers (“2018” population on DRA is really like 2016 because of its 5-year nature)

[WIResident]

I drew up this 15 district fair map of Ohio, what do you guys think? Any things that should be worked on?

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::558e5a7a-5455-4a0c-adec-71fefd115e72

[lfromnj]

I drew up this 15 district fair map of Ohio, what do you guys think? Any things that should be worked on?

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::558e5a7a-5455-4a0c-adec-71fefd115e72

Your link doesn't work, you probably didn't press SHARE map.

[WIResident]

I drew up this 15 district fair map of Ohio, what do you guys think? Any things that should be worked on?

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::558e5a7a-5455-4a0c-adec-71fefd115e72

Your link doesn't work, you probably didn't press SHARE map.

Here it is
https://davesredistricting.org/join/56eb4684-2c06-4eb3-9744-64321e1129e6

[lfromnj]

I drew up this 15 district fair map of Ohio, what do you guys think? Any things that should be worked on?

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::558e5a7a-5455-4a0c-adec-71fefd115e72

Your link doesn't work, you probably didn't press SHARE map.

Here it is
https://davesredistricting.org/join/56eb4684-2c06-4eb3-9744-64321e1129e6

Illegal in Cleveland, each district must be within 1 county or include a WHOLE county.

Also arguably playing a bit fire with the VRA as a compact 46-47% black district is possible. I think your map is only like 43%.