Ohio redistricting thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/jbalmert/status/1707019905479196872?t=IOiO0x421MYQ0jpUsgFy0A...

That neatly summarizes it doesn't it? Dems and Reps both get something of what they wanted, transformed competitive seats into safer ones when viable, and protected their own. But the big picture is still not good, nor is it a rational map - just look at inner Wood and Athens.

Well, maybe if someone had actually done their job in 2022 and struck down the Republican gerrymanders swiftly instead of lztting them run out the clock until it was too late to remedy, we wouldn't be there. But no, the OHSC had to take their sweet ass time and now obviously the new GOP hack court has no interest in even upholding the state constitution.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I tried to make a Dem gerrymander in Ohio with 8 Biden seats vs only 7 Trump seats. Albeit OH-02 is only Biden+1 but still.

[TML]

I tried to make a Dem gerrymander in Ohio with 8 Biden seats vs only 7 Trump seats. Albeit OH-02 is only Biden+1 but still.

Indeed, back in 2018, when 538 released its "Atlas of Redistricting," it found that in OH, the most pro-D gerrymander they could come up with at the time was 8D-8R (with three swing seats - two of them R-leaning and one of them D-leaning). This goes to show that political geography mostly favors Republicans in OH, but I still think that a map drawn by a truly independent commission and/or a court-appointed special master would most likely be 8R-7D.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/jbalmert/status/1707019905479196872?t=IOiO0x421MYQ0jpUsgFy0A...

That neatly summarizes it doesn't it? Dems and Reps both get something of what they wanted, transformed competitive seats into safer ones when viable, and protected their own. But the big picture is still not good, nor is it a rational map - just look at inner Wood and Athens.

Well, maybe if someone had actually done their job in 2022 and struck down the Republican gerrymanders swiftly instead of lztting them run out the clock until it was too late to remedy, we wouldn't be there. But no, the OHSC had to take their sweet ass time and now obviously the new GOP hack court has no interest in even upholding the state constitution.

Additional context for others: the State Supreme Court with a different republican now sitting in O'Conner's former seat upheld the gerrymanders recently passed. It's the culmination of the game started during 2022.

But nobody really cares about that fight anymore. The ballot amendment now in circulation is where potential power lies.

[politicallefty]

Indeed, back in 2018, when 538 released its "Atlas of Redistricting," it found that in OH, the most pro-D gerrymander they could come up with at the time was 8D-8R (with three swing seats - two of them R-leaning and one of them D-leaning). This goes to show that political geography mostly favors Republicans in OH, but I still think that a map drawn by a truly independent commission and/or a court-appointed special master would most likely be 8R-7D.

That's definitely more of a recent development (specifically, Trump). Ohio was one of a few states I liked to play around with on DRA in the pre-Trump days. You could get 7-8 Obama districts (out of 16) in the northern part of the state from Toledo to Youngstown. The erosion of support in the NE part of the state has been crippling to Democratic chances in the state. Only two things have really changed to benefit Democrats (though they don't come close to balancing out the other trends): it's easy to draw a safe Democratic seat within Hamilton County and the Columbus area can now easily support two safe Democratic seats. Republicans actually realized the latter was happening during the 2011 redistricting. Before that, Franklin County was split 3-ways. I think Republicans were considering a 4-way split before finally conceding a Columbus seat to Democrats.

[Oryxslayer]

Indeed, back in 2018, when 538 released its "Atlas of Redistricting," it found that in OH, the most pro-D gerrymander they could come up with at the time was 8D-8R (with three swing seats - two of them R-leaning and one of them D-leaning). This goes to show that political geography mostly favors Republicans in OH, but I still think that a map drawn by a truly independent commission and/or a court-appointed special master would most likely be 8R-7D.

That's definitely more of a recent development (specifically, Trump). Ohio was one of a few states I liked to play around with on DRA in the pre-Trump days. You could get 7-8 Obama districts (out of 16) in the northern part of the state from Toledo to Youngstown. The erosion of support in the NE part of the state has been crippling to Democratic chances in the state. Only two things have really changed to benefit Democrats (though they don't come close to balancing out the other trends): it's easy to draw a safe Democratic seat within Hamilton County and the Columbus area can now easily support two safe Democratic seats. Republicans actually realized the latter was happening during the 2011 redistricting. Before that, Franklin County was split 3-ways. I think Republicans were considering a 4-way split before finally conceding a Columbus seat to Democrats.

That is correct about Columbus. And really Columbus has behaved more like a sun belt city than any other Ohio point of comparison. Perhaps the growth of Franklin being measured in Hundreds of Thousands of people between recent decades has something to do with it. Obama was the first Dem presidential candidate to win the county by more than 10% in almost 100 years, it made sense for the GOP to draw a map for the 2000s that treated the city like Cincinnati. But the county has just continued to grow and it's partisanship now is comparable to Cuyahoga. Failing to create a pack there in 2010 would have led to some interesting elections after 2016. And now it's large enough to have a second seat when paired with a few suburbs, which the commission absolutely will do if given a mandate from the voters.

[Nyvin]

Here's the approved text of the proposed amendment -

https://citizensnotpoliticians.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/CNP-Amendment-for-Web.pdf

It does seem to put proportionality high on the list of determining districts -

Provide that in order to ban partisan gerrymandering and redistricting plans that favor or disfavor a political party, the statewide proportion of districts in a redistricting plan that favors each political party shall correspond closely to statewide partisan preferences of the voters of Ohio and provide how the statewide proportion of districts that favors a political party shall be determined, how the statewide partisan preferences of Ohio voters shall be determined, and that “correspond closely” shall mean that the statewide proportion of districts that favors a political party shall not deviate by more than three percentage points in either direction from the statewide partisan preferences of Ohio voters unless arithmetically impossible, in which case the closest possible proportion greater than three percentage points shall govern

So if using 2020 Pres numbers as a baseline (I assume they use some combination of elections or something) then 45.24% - 3% = 42.24% of seats.   15 * 42.24% = 6.33 seats.  So the map would have to be something like 8R-6D-1s.   

6 safe D seats is actually pretty tough so I imagine there's some wiggle room there or something.

Also if the commission doesn't produce a map the Ohio Supreme Court appoints two special masters that are held to the same proportionality metrics -

Provide that the Ohio Supreme Court will have exclusive original jurisdiction in all cases that contend that an adopted plan fails to comply with the proportionality and incumbency and candidacy provisions set forth in Section 6(B) of the Amendment. Such a case may be filed by any Ohio elector and shall proceed as follows: a petition challenging the plan must be filed within 10 days of the Commission issuing its explanatory report; if more than one case is filed, they must be consolidated;

Only the Commission will have standing to respond to the challenge; the bipartisan Panel, with assistance from the professional search firm, shall create a pool of at least 6 potential special masters following qualifications and disqualifications set forth in the Amendment; the Supreme Court shall by unanimous vote select two special masters from the pool created by the bipartisan Panel; and if the Court fails to make such selections, the administrative director of the Court
shall randomly select two special masters from the pool.

34. Provide that the two special masters shall review the record before the Commission and hold a public hearing, after which they must issue a report as to whether the Commission abused its discretion in its determination that the adopted plan complies with the partisan fairness criteria required by the Amendment for a redistricting plan;

If a person who filed a challenge or the Commission disagrees with the report of the special masters, the person may file objections with the Court and after a public hearing on the objections and a review of the record before the Commission, the Court will rule whether the Commission abused its discretion in determining that the adopted plan complies with the criteria set forth in the Amendment

The amendment also doesnt say anything about not splitting cities and it fully repeals the old commission that prevented splitting 100k+ cities, so I guess to create one of the safe D seats they'll probably split Cleveland.

[politicallefty]

That is correct about Columbus. And really Columbus has behaved more like a sub belt city than any other Ohio point of comparison. Perhaps the growth of Franklin being measured in Hundreds of Thousands of people between recent decades has something to do with it. Obama was the first Dem presidential candidate to win the county by more than 10% in almost 100 years, it made sense for the GOP to draw a map for the 2000s that treated the city like Cincinnati. But the county has just continued to grow and it's partisanship now is comparable to Cuyahoga. Failing to create a pack there in 2010 would have led to some interesting elections after 2016. And now it's large enough to have a second seat when paired with a few suburbs, which the commission obsoletely will do if given a mandate from the voters.

Proportionality basically demands a second Democratic district in the Columbus area. The most natural way to do it would be an ultra-safe Democratic seat that basically starts at Franklin County's southern border and moves up, taking as much of the city as practicable. That leaves the remainder to be combined with D-trending Delaware County (the excess needed for population is basically irrelevant for political purposes).

Franklin County has been quite striking in its shift since 2000. As far as presidential numbers go, it will likely surpass Cuyahoga as the biggest vote margin in the state. Just look at the past results though:

2000: D+1 (+4k votes)
2004: D+9 (+48k votes)
2008: D+21 (+116k votes)
2012: D+23 (+130k votes)
2016: D+26 (+152k votes)
2020: D+31 (+198k votes)

You're really not kidding when you say it looks like a sunbelt city, both in terms of margins and raw vote margins. Off the top of my head, the trend looks most similar to Dallas County, except starting earlier and from a more Democratic baseline. There's a huge swing with Obama and another jump when Trump comes on the scene. The difference, of course, is that Democrats invested very heavily in Ohio in 2004.

The amendment also doesnt say anything about not splitting cities and it fully repeals the old commission that prevented splitting 100k+ cities, so I guess to create one of the safe D seats they'll probably split Cleveland.

Yeah, I read it that way too. However, the US Constitution and federal law is supreme, above the proportionality requirement. While a black-majority district is no longer possible within Cuyahoga County, any commission basically has to draw a black-opportunity district. Splitting Cleveland probably makes that easier, actually. A district anchored in the eastern half of Cuyahoga County that takes in some of the R-leaning suburbs in the southern and southeastern part of the county easily ensures black voters will get representation. At the least, taking out heavily Democratic Lakewood would reduce the number of white liberals. Combining the remainder of Cuyahoga County with Lorain County (which makes the most sense when you have a district within the county anchored to the east) leaves you with a good D-leaning district.

I haven't drawn it myself, but you can get a fairly proportional result with the following:

4 Safe D (Eastern Cuyahoga, Hamilton, and 2 Franklin-based)
1 Likely D (Western Cuyahoga+Lorain)
1 Lean D (Summit County-based)
1 Toss-up/Lean D (Lucas County-based)
1 Lean R (Montgomery County-based)