Ohio redistricting thread
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Tekken_Guy
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« on: December 21, 2019, 03:55:52 PM »

Ohio is expected to lose a congressional district during the next redisrticting cycle. How will this affect the maps in 2022?
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538Electoral
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« Reply #1 on: December 21, 2019, 04:04:36 PM »

All I know is that I better remain in a Republican district or else I'm not going to be happy.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #2 on: December 21, 2019, 04:05:11 PM »

All I know is that I better remain in a Republican district or else I'm not going to be happy.

Where do you live?
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #3 on: December 21, 2019, 04:21:33 PM »

All I know is that I better remain in a Republican district or else I'm not going to be happy.

If you don’t live in Hamilton county you don’t have to worry about that
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538Electoral
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« Reply #4 on: December 21, 2019, 04:26:54 PM »

All I know is that I better remain in a Republican district or else I'm not going to be happy.

Where do you live?

The 5th district. In Wood County to be more specific.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #5 on: December 21, 2019, 04:29:54 PM »

10 safe R districts
4 safe D districts (1 in Hamilton county, 1 in Franklin county, 1 in Cuyahoga county and 1 around Akron which could be linked to include some parts of Lorain county)
1 competitive district in northwest Ohio (which is trending R fast)
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lfromnj
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« Reply #6 on: December 21, 2019, 05:14:30 PM »

All I know is that I better remain in a Republican district or else I'm not going to be happy.

If I was drawing a fair map you would probably be anchored by Toledo in Wood county so it would be a Lean D district at like Clinton +3  however its also possible for the GOP to easily just move west instead of taking Wood county to deep red territory and Wood county would also get a GOP rep.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #7 on: December 21, 2019, 06:26:08 PM »

10 safe R districts
4 safe D districts (1 in Hamilton county, 1 in Franklin county, 1 in Cuyahoga county and 1 around Akron which could be linked to include some parts of Lorain county)
1 competitive district in northwest Ohio (which is trending R fast)

I don't think a map could be drawn that safe without running afoul of the state constitution. It's also possible for Democrats to win the state Supreme Court. Democrats picked up 2 seats last year. If they do the same next year, it's a majority with original jurisdiction on all maps. The new amendment does have strict standards in place. I think a more likely map will be:

Safe D - 3 (Cuyahoga County, Franklin County, Hamilton County)
Likely/Lean D - 2 (Akron-based, Toledo-based)
Toss-up - 1 (Youngtown-based)
Likely/Lean R - 2 (Dayton-based, Northeast OH)
Solid R - 7 (Everything else)
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #8 on: December 21, 2019, 06:44:46 PM »

https://districtr.org/edit/1776

This is my fair Ohio district map.

District 1 (1): Blue district. Based in Cincinnati. Chabot would likely not run here because it is too Democratic here.
District 2 (Cool: Yellow district in Butler, Warren, and Clermont counties. Heavily Republican suburbs of Cincinnati. Brad Wenstrup may run here.
District 3 (2): Blueish-green district. Open, deep-red, seat based in South Ohio. Would probably be labeled as District 2. Contains parts of Wenstrup’s and Stivers’ old districts, but neither of them live here.
District 4 (6): Lime-green district near the WV border. Very Republican district. Mostly Bill Johnson’s old district, but Balderson’s home of Zanesville will likely be here.
District 5 (10): Magenta district around Dayton. Mostly, but not overwhelmingly, Republican seat for Mike Turner.
District 6 (4): Purple district around Lima and Bellefontaine. Would be represented by Jordan or Davidson.
District 7 (5): Turqoise district in NW Ohio around Toledo. GOP-tilting swing district that would have a Latta vs. Kaptur matchup.
District 8 (7): Bluish-purple district near Mansfield and Marion. Bob Gibbs would run here.
District 9 (3): Red Columbus Dem vote sink for Joyce Beatty.
District 10 (12): Blue North Columbus/Delaware district. Balderson no longer lives here, but Steve Stivers could run if he wanted to.
District 11 (9): Orange West Cuyahoga/Lorain/Medina seat for Anthony Gonzalez to run in. Swingy but R-leaning.
District 12 (11): Green Cleveland-based seat that Marcia Fudge will easily win.
District 13 (14): Light pink district in East Cuyahoga and NE Ohio. Dave Joyce would run here. It’s swingle and Hillary narrowly won it because of Euclid and Bedford, but it’s trending R.
District 14 (13): Purple district in the Mahoning Valley. Tim Ryan is from here, but it’s getting pretty red. It could be his escape hatch out to the Senate since it’s slightly redder than the state overall.
District 15 (15): Swingy light-green district around Akron and Canton. Clinton narrowly lost it and no incumbents live here..
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lfromnj
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« Reply #9 on: December 21, 2019, 07:50:08 PM »
« Edited: December 21, 2019, 08:52:18 PM by lfromnj »

Oh also would like to mention despite the fact that Ohio is losing a district the Franklin county districts actually have to SHRINK(not by that much because ohio is losing a district but its still estimated that Franklin county alone will probably go from like 1.6 districts to 1.7 districts. Making another district 10% more Franklin can be quite key in redistricting. Meanwhile so many other areas especially the Appalachian district will have to expand by maybe as much as 10%.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #10 on: December 21, 2019, 09:55:14 PM »

OH's redistricting will certainly be interesting next decade. Due to overwhelming support for redistricting reform in the state, the Republicans were forced to make concessions in the form of a commission. While notably very weak, the Rs will at least have to somewhat respect its decisions lest it upset the electorate and spur another attempt at a non-partisan redistricting commission.

The map we are likely to see is one of a soft R gerrymander. OH-01 likely becomes a D seat, but Tim Ryan may find himself in trouble if the Rs can successfully argue that separating Youngstown from Akron is fair. Besides that, we may also see some unpacking of the D-sinks, but probably not enough to seriously put any seat in a marginal position.

The most likely result, in my opinion, is a 10-5 R map, with the possibility of Ds taking 2 more seats in a really good year.

 If the Ds are able to win two SC seats in 2020, however, then we likely get a fair map with a tilt towards the Republicans, perhaps something like 8-7 R.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #11 on: December 21, 2019, 10:15:44 PM »

OH's redistricting will certainly be interesting next decade. Due to overwhelming support for redistricting reform in the state, the Republicans were forced to make concessions in the form of a commission. While notably very weak, the Rs will at least have to somewhat respect its decisions lest it upset the electorate and spur another attempt at a non-partisan redistricting commission.

The map we are likely to see is one of a soft R gerrymander. OH-01 likely becomes a D seat, but Tim Ryan may find himself in trouble if the Rs can successfully argue that separating Youngstown from Akron is fair. Besides that, we may also see some unpacking of the D-sinks, but probably not enough to seriously put any seat in a marginal position.

The most likely result, in my opinion, is a 10-5 R map, with the possibility of Ds taking 2 more seats in a really good year.

 If the Ds are able to win two SC seats in 2020, however, then we likely get a fair map with a tilt towards the Republicans, perhaps something like 8-7 R.

How is 8-7 a tilt towards the Republican? Thats beyond the partisanship of Ohio. I would agree that a fair map might be around there but its in no way a GOP leaning map, id guess it would be 1 in cinci, 2 in Columbus, 1 tilt/lean D in toledo 2 in cleveland and 1 in akron/summit.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #12 on: December 21, 2019, 10:38:15 PM »

OH's redistricting will certainly be interesting next decade. Due to overwhelming support for redistricting reform in the state, the Republicans were forced to make concessions in the form of a commission. While notably very weak, the Rs will at least have to somewhat respect its decisions lest it upset the electorate and spur another attempt at a non-partisan redistricting commission.

The map we are likely to see is one of a soft R gerrymander. OH-01 likely becomes a D seat, but Tim Ryan may find himself in trouble if the Rs can successfully argue that separating Youngstown from Akron is fair. Besides that, we may also see some unpacking of the D-sinks, but probably not enough to seriously put any seat in a marginal position.

The most likely result, in my opinion, is a 10-5 R map, with the possibility of Ds taking 2 more seats in a really good year.

 If the Ds are able to win two SC seats in 2020, however, then we likely get a fair map with a tilt towards the Republicans, perhaps something like 8-7 R.

How is 8-7 a tilt towards the Republican? Thats beyond the partisanship of Ohio. I would agree that a fair map might be around there but its in no way a GOP leaning map, id guess it would be 1 in cinci, 2 in Columbus, 1 tilt/lean D in toledo 2 in cleveland and 1 in akron/summit.

By tilting Republican, I mean that, due to the natural geographic advantage possessed by Rs in the state, it will be much easier for the Rs to increase their seat total than the Ds. For instance, the 8 R seats would likely be much more safe than the 7 seats the Ds would possess. Its a similar case with PA, which, while possessing a fair map, still rather clearly tilts towards the Rs.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #13 on: December 21, 2019, 10:48:33 PM »

Ohio's redistricting has always seemed like a black box to me: too many outs and potential forks in the road are provided by the redistricting amendment. Oh, and Ohio's new process is untested, so we have no prior data to look at. I guess I'll try for a writeup, but don't expect much.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #14 on: December 21, 2019, 11:16:11 PM »
« Edited: December 21, 2019, 11:31:43 PM by Tintrlvr »

Here's my fair map of Ohio:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/0153189a-de09-4cfd-84c1-de9fb53e9f0e

OH-01 (Cincinnati): Lean D
OH-02 (Hamilton): Safe R
OH-03 (Dayton): Likely R
OH-04 (Lima): Safe R
OH-05 (Toledo): Likely D
OH-06 (Columbus): Safe D
OH-07 (Gahanna): Lean D
OH-08 (Chillicothe): Safe R
OH-09 (Zanesville): Safe R
OH-10 (Mansfield): Safe R
OH-11 (Cleveland): Safe D
OH-12 (Painesville): Likely R
OH-13 (Akron and Canton): Lean D
OH-14 (Lorain): Lean R
OH-15 (Youngstown): Toss-up/Tilt D**

**Solidly Trump district but still seems pretty D-leaning downballot.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #15 on: December 22, 2019, 04:02:47 AM »

https://districtr.org/edit/1776

This is my fair Ohio district map.

District 1 (1): Blue district. Based in Cincinnati. Chabot would likely not run here because it is too Democratic here.
District 2 (Cool: Yellow district in Butler, Warren, and Clermont counties. Heavily Republican suburbs of Cincinnati. Brad Wenstrup may run here.
District 3 (2): Blueish-green district. Open, deep-red, seat based in South Ohio. Would probably be labeled as District 2. Contains parts of Wenstrup’s and Stivers’ old districts, but neither of them live here.
District 4 (6): Lime-green district near the WV border. Very Republican district. Mostly Bill Johnson’s old district, but Balderson’s home of Zanesville will likely be here.
District 5 (10): Magenta district around Dayton. Mostly, but not overwhelmingly, Republican seat for Mike Turner.
District 6 (4): Purple district around Lima and Bellefontaine. Would be represented by Jordan or Davidson.
District 7 (5): Turqoise district in NW Ohio around Toledo. GOP-tilting swing district that would have a Latta vs. Kaptur matchup.
District 8 (7): Bluish-purple district near Mansfield and Marion. Bob Gibbs would run here.
District 9 (3): Red Columbus Dem vote sink for Joyce Beatty.
District 10 (12): Blue North Columbus/Delaware district. Balderson no longer lives here, but Steve Stivers could run if he wanted to.
District 11 (9): Orange West Cuyahoga/Lorain/Medina seat for Anthony Gonzalez to run in. Swingy but R-leaning.
District 12 (11): Green Cleveland-based seat that Marcia Fudge will easily win.
District 13 (14): Light pink district in East Cuyahoga and NE Ohio. Dave Joyce would run here. It’s swingle and Hillary narrowly won it because of Euclid and Bedford, but it’s trending R.
District 14 (13): Purple district in the Mahoning Valley. Tim Ryan is from here, but it’s getting pretty red. It could be his escape hatch out to the Senate since it’s slightly redder than the state overall.
District 15 (15): Swingy light-green district around Akron and Canton. Clinton narrowly lost it and no incumbents live here..

So your map is
3 D districts
7 R districts
5 competitive districts

Right ?
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #16 on: December 22, 2019, 04:10:16 AM »

10 safe R districts
4 safe D districts (1 in Hamilton county, 1 in Franklin county, 1 in Cuyahoga county and 1 around Akron which could be linked to include some parts of Lorain county)
1 competitive district in northwest Ohio (which is trending R fast)

I don't think a map could be drawn that safe without running afoul of the state constitution. It's also possible for Democrats to win the state Supreme Court. Democrats picked up 2 seats last year. If they do the same next year, it's a majority with original jurisdiction on all maps. The new amendment does have strict standards in place. I think a more likely map will be:

Safe D - 3 (Cuyahoga County, Franklin County, Hamilton County)
Likely/Lean D - 2 (Akron-based, Toledo-based)
Toss-up - 1 (Youngtown-based)
Likely/Lean R - 2 (Dayton-based, Northeast OH)
Solid R - 7 (Everything else)

Yeah, a such map could be plausible too, now the district around Youngstown would be probably tilt R by 2022, especially if Akron is in a different district.
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cvparty
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« Reply #17 on: December 24, 2019, 12:59:03 AM »

democrats suffer from a poor geographic distribution and rapid unfavorable trends. honestly they should expect an average of 5 seats, with up to 7 in a really good year. a fair map in the 2020s would look something like:

6 safe R (rurals, cinci burbs, cleveland exurbs)
2 likely R (NE ohio, dayton)
2 lean R (toledo, cleveland burbs)

2 likely D (akron, columbus burbs)
3 safe D (3 Cs)
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #18 on: December 25, 2019, 01:01:02 AM »

so it sounds like Republicans are likely to lose the seat that is lost?  (because it's so gerrymandered in their favor to begin with)
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Zaybay
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« Reply #19 on: December 25, 2019, 03:00:30 PM »

so it sounds like Republicans are likely to lose the seat that is lost?  (because it's so gerrymandered in their favor to begin with)

Thanks to the weak commission, yes. If the commission were not in place, the Rs could just carve up Tim Ryan's seat and regain their lost seat via that method, but thankfully, the commission stops those kind of shenanigans from occurring.
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #20 on: January 02, 2020, 02:57:29 AM »
« Edited: January 03, 2020, 11:15:09 PM by Idaho Conservative »

https://davesredistricting.org/join/907542e2-e7cd-4343-8870-dc77790598a6
8R-4S-3D
Swing district has pvi under 5.  2 of the swing districts lean dem, 2 lean rep.
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cvparty
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« Reply #21 on: January 03, 2020, 10:21:36 PM »

that's a weird map of ohio
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #22 on: January 03, 2020, 11:13:16 PM »

thanks, wrong map
https://davesredistricting.org/join/907542e2-e7cd-4343-8870-dc77790598a6
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voice_of_resistance
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« Reply #23 on: April 21, 2020, 06:00:21 PM »

Reviving this thread now that DRA has 2018 pop estimates. This is my good-government map accounting for the fact that Rs are drawing it.

http://dra-purple.indirect.cc/maps#viewmap::60cd324f-99f5-4f26-8b13-743556001e23

By district:
OH-01: Cincinnati, Hamilton County reunited.  Chabot and Wenstrup are both screwed here, as this is a D pickup. Composite D 55-45, D+3. (Likely D)

OH-02: Chilicothe, Cincy exurbs, Columbus southern and eastern suburbs. Wenstrup could carpetbag and run here, and he'd win pretty easily. Composite R 65-35, R+16. (Safe R)

OH-03: Columbus, southern Franklin County. GOP wouldn't dismantle this. Beatty will be fine here. Composite D 68-32, D+16. (Safe D)

OH-04: Bellefontaine, Lima, Urbana, rural Western Ohio. The sad side of a fair map is that idiots like Jim Jordan get safer seats as they get Oberlin and Elyria removed from their seats. (Not that Jordan was ever vulnerable, but you know). Warren Davidson from the 8th district lives here now, in Miami County, so here is another double-bunk. Composite R 72-28, R+24. (Safe R)

OH-05: Toledo, Bowling Green, NW Ohio. Latta is likely screwed here. Kaptur lives in Toledo, so it's a likely double-bunk. Composite D 53-47, D+1. (Lean D)

OH-06: Athens, Zanesville, SE Ohio. This district used to be somewhat competitive but is now gone for Dems. Balderson and Johnson both live here, and we have another double-bunk here. Composite R 61-39, R+13. (Safe R)

OH-07: Ashland, Berlin, north-central Ohio. Gibbs lives in this district, and it is made more compact to take in all the rurals between Columbus and the lake. Composite R 65-35, R+16. (Safe R)

OH-08: Butler, Warren, Clermont counties, Cincy exurbs. This seat is still an uber-red swath of suburban territory north and east of Cincy, but is pushed further southward. Davidson doesn't actually live in this district, but it is still ruby-red. Chabot could definitely carpetbag here and he'd be safe. Composite R 66-34, R+18. (Safe R)

OH-09: Lorain, Fremont, West Cleveland. The Snake on the Lake is back, but less of a snake and more of a crocodile (a bit wider). Kaptur already lives in the 5th, and it spans the entire lakeshore from the 5th all the way to the western edges of Cuyahoga. Now that there are two non-Cuyahoga lake districts, Dennis Kucinich could have a run again, or some other Dem. Composite D 59-41, D+7. (Likely D)

OH-10: Dayton, Xenia, Springfield. This district doesn't change much except it takes in the city of Springfield to make it somewhat competitive. Composite R 51-49, R+3. Turner should be fine here. (Safe R with Turner, Likely R if OPEN)

OH-11: Cleveland, Akron. This is the minority district, at 49.9% black, that takes in all the black precincts of Northeast Ohio. Marcia Fudge should be fine here as the seat is still strongly Democratic. Composite D 80-20, D+28. (Safe D)

OH-12: Upper Arlington, Dublin, Delaware County. This is a more compact version of the old OH-12 created due to increased population growth in Franklin and Delaware Counties. Stivers could run here, especially since his district has been axed here, and since Balderson is double-bunked in the 6th. Composite R 51-49, R+2. (Lean R)

OH-13: Warren, Youngstown, Canton. The northeast Ohio white Dem pack remains. It is easier to keep Tim Ryan in the House here, rather than feeding a bunch of Democrats to neighboring seats and forcing Ryan statewide. While OH is trending right, Ryan would be a solid candidate. But under this district, it remains blue enough for him to win it even amid the trends. Composite D 55-45, D+2. (Likely D with Ryan, Lean D if OPEN)

OH-14: Ashtabula, Geauga, Lake counties. This is the Republican rural NE Ohio district. Joyce actually lives in the 11th in Richmond Heights, but could easily carpetbag as it is literally a few blocks away. This district is trending away from competitiveness, but if open it could flip. Composite R 52-48, R+4. (Safe R with Joyce, Likely R if OPEN)

OH-15: Rocky River, Parma, Medina. This district takes in the suburbs south and west of Cleveland, and is where Anthony Gonzalez is. Composite R 56-44, R+7. (Safe R with Gonzalez, Likely R if OPEN)

Summarizing:
1: OPEN
2: Wenstrup
3: Beatty
4: Jordan/Davidson
5: Latta/Kaptur
6: Johnson/Balderson
7: Gibbs
8: Chabot
9: OPEN
10: Turner
11: Fudge
12: Stivers
13: Ryan
14: Joyce
15: Gonzalez

Safe R:
Wenstrup (2), Jordan/Davidson (4), Johnson/Balderson (6), Gibbs (7), Chabot ( Cool, Turner (10), Joyce (14), Gonzalez (15)

Lean R: Stivers (12)

Lean D: Kaptur/Latta (5)

Safe D:
OPEN (1), Beatty (3), OPEN (9), Fudge (11), Ryan (13)
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lfromnj
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« Reply #24 on: April 21, 2020, 06:08:57 PM »

Why use DRA purple?
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