Ohio redistricting thread

[Torie]

                                                      OHIO MAP BASED ON PROJ 2020 CENSUS

[Torie]

The chop of Warren was ugly and not compact, and makes Warren a traveling chop which I tend to avoid where reasonably possible. I did do a traveling chop of Summit because of more than offsetting competing considerations. The chop of Butler was much cleaner.

I am very saddened I did not get Kudos for my color scheme. Muon2 once dissed me for making my maps artistic endeavors. I plead guilty! Aesthetics are important. I also like districts and chops to be rectangular rather than curvy. Chopping Madison County for example was just an assault to my eyes. So that project was abandoned. Chopping Hancock was an awful chore too, and not all that great, but the chops of Marian and other candidates were a total fail. Chopping smallish counties that still have a significant population where a high percentage of the residents live in a compact county seat are a challenge.

[Torie]

Why publish just one map to be disdained, when one can garner a duo-diss by publishing two? More is more. This one vis a vis the first iteration by moi, does a clockwise twist of the CD's in the Cleveland metro area. It has advantages and disadvantages as compared with version 1, particularly if one cares about the Muon2 pack and cover rules for metro areas. But it kind of grabs me, if one can stomach Canton having access to the lake.

Cleveland saved my life. We love Cleveland. It deserves the best.

PS: That irksome blue dot to the east (NEE) of Canton (the gaggle of weirdos that read this sector of the forum all know where Canton is even if they do not know how to get a date, so  my elaborating further would just be wasting bandwidth), is  a software flaw. It was there close to a decade ago, and it still is, like a smelly old shoe that is falling apart, that one is nevertheless loathe to part with because it has become distorted to fit around your misshapen foot, an appendage that  itself falls light years short of the the Greek ideal of bodily perfection (in my case a high in-step) - to wit, a symbiotic celebration of the twin imperfections. And there you have it.

[Torie]

Really good map, only issues I have is that Canton district you were forced to do and I have a preference for taking  northern Warren and not Butler for the Dayton district.

Also feel like Monroe should be with Belmont. However its not legal IIRC, The Cleveland district doesn't have a district in one whole county .

Should be easy to fix, have Cyan eat the rest of Lake county, Green takes a few precincts from red,red eats a bit of Medina from blue which eats a bit of Stark from Cyan.

Eyeballing it, I think Clinton won 2 districts in Columbus and Cleveland each and then the Cinci district too. Trump won the Toledo and Akron district narrowly and heavily won the Youngstown district. The rest should be Safe R except the Dayton one?

Well that is sad, so here is the legal map with the slash and burn of Medina. The chop of Stark  is bigger when one goes counterclockwise, and switches out the chop of Lake for the more glaring looking one of Medina of the same size in population. Naughty. The partisan figures are the composite score on the DRA. More Pub are the average of the presidential vote for the last two cycles. More Pub still in the Cuyahoga zone is the Trump vote. So in the legal map Trump probably carried all three of the CD's surrounding Cleveland. The numbers for the map with the illegal Lake split are in the replaced map in my post above.

[Torie]

The DRA per Muon2 is using 2015 census estimate figures. The 2020 map was done manually and laboriously. It may have some small errors because I revised it a bit without going back to the drawing board, but the errors should not force a systemic map draw.

[Torie]

In 2016 in the 2020 census map the result in OH-12 for POTUS was:

Democratic   172,938   46.8%
Republican   193,790   52.4%

[Torie]

[Torie]

I might note that the 2010 Pub utterly hideous gerrymander of the Ryan seat (CD 13), by the end of the decade turned into a Dem gerrymander. Ryan is done in any reasonable map. Unless of course he would like to move to Akron and try his luck in the CD that he currently represents the entrails of.

In this chaotic era the risk of drawing dummymanders has dramatically increased. I wonder if the partisan hacks will get that memo. Color me rather pessimistic. The quantum of their obtuseness and narcissism tends to too high to facilitate their escape from purgatory, where they tend to objectify voters as their personal pawns to power.  

Just one old curmudgeon's opinion. Pay me no mind.

[Torie]

Perhaps you might like the map to the right better. It has the obvious advantage to which you referred of keeping the Youngstown metro area together. Disadvantages are that the map is more erose, makes CD-07 most probably less competitive, does not make CD-13 materially more competitive, and involves one extra mega county chop (of Summit), leaving CD-07 bereft of any whole county, although hewing to the whole county concept as a material plus factor is admittedly no big deal, particularly since Summit is a mixed bag as to its component parts, wedged in between the Cleveland and Canton metro areas.

The moral of the story is that there is no free lunch. One must choose, and in reality I suspect the map to the right in this part of the state is more likely to be adopted by the Pubs (assuming that they do not go on a gerrymandering jihad pushing the limits of the law just because they can), than the one that I prefer. So you may well get your way as it were (not that you find either map to be the one that in your mind is the closest to Aristotelian perfection, I understand ).

Both of course are worthy maps. JMO, and thank you for your comments.

[Torie]

FWIW you can do two Columbus districts fairly easy--nest one in Franklin County and the other in Delaware and Franklin, plus a cut from either Licking or Fairfield. It's the same number of county splits as on Torie's current map but the splits are more reflective of communities, since both Licking and Fairfield have Columbus suburbia but also fairly disconnected county seats.

The disadvantage of that is that it creates a much larger chop of the City of Columbus (and may dilute the black influence of the city CD, which I believe currently is actually represented by an AA). The CD to  the south of Columbus has no Columbus precincts within it - by design. Plus Licking and Delaware fit together well. It is true that Licking and the south Franklin CD's share of Franklin have about the same populations, so that is a plus, in that the size of the county chop would be greatly reduced. However, Licking's population is smaller by a bit, so the CD to the south would still need to cut into Franklin by about 5,000 people or so, or another CD chop into Delaware.

It would create another safe Dem seat, but the way I drew the seat, the CD is already lean Dem per the 2020 election, and is trending Dem at warp speed, so in the end it will not make much of a partisan difference. It also makes the map look more erose.


Addendum: Here is a map showing what I was saying. The BCVAP only decreases by 2.8%, so that is not really an issue. It is just the jut up from Fairfield to Licking that looks ugly. The Pubs largely control the process, so this just isn't happening - ever. What might be more likely perhaps as a not bad looking map at all really will be added in a bit. No doubt you can guess.




The perfection of Pub purloinment personified. Never put a Pub vote sink to waste, particularly if the map looks pretty. CD-12 is back in the GOP garden.

[Torie]

Oh, are you using the 2020 projections? TBH I have not really been able to figure out how to use them.

I can send you my spreadsheet so that you can admire my genius if you like. PM me if so. You need a matrix chart to move county populations around, after projecting each county's population, and on the side for chops, split the population pie assuming the population change in the county is uniform. After some practice, you can move stuff around fairly quickly.

[Torie]

A general question to Torie regarding his 2020 census projections:

What is the source for them? How do they diverge so drastically from DRA's 2018 extrapolations? I mean it's clear that from 2018 to 2020 demographic trends would continue for another two years, but to get from DRA's 2018 numbers to your 2020 numbers you would need an annual population decrease of 1-2% in Northeastern Ohio (or a 1-2% increase in the rest of the state). Or was there a systematic bias in the 2018 extrapolation?

I used the 2010 populations from the DRA that match the census, in part because Muon2 tells me the alleged 2018 figures are from 2015. I then took the 2019 census estimates for counties, and extrapolated them forward for another nine months (to the 0.75 power). You then use the 2020 projected figures, and  for say a county chop, adjust the DRA figures according.

So, for example, if the percentage change of a county from 2010 was 10%, and you do a chop that shows 10,000 people, by locking the CD's except the one involved, and then pressing the county button with the setting to not assigned. You then on the side of your matrix chart, type in the 10,000, and it changes to 11,000 people, and then copy and paste or otherwise move the 11,000 into the column for that CD, and the row for that county. If the county is chopped once, you can in the cell in the same row for the other CD, insert an equals sign and then press the cell for the county's total projected population, a minus sign, and then the cell with the 11,000 to get the balance of the county's population to be assigned to the other CD.

[Torie]

Joyce Beatty is Black, but she represents a seat which is majority-White and only 1/3rd Black--not exactly protected under the VRA.

Plus as you know adhering to the city of Columbus's boundaries is very difficult as they are noncontiguous and nonsensical.

Let me mock up a quick map of the Columbus area--I'll post once I finish.

The black percentage issue is not a legal VRA issue here as you note, but a policy issue, that should be a factor, if not necessarily a dispositive factor,  as a legal requirement would be.

My Pub purloinment map has a black CVAP of 30% so that was not an issue with that map either. A map that would cause a black incumbent to lose, or be less likely to be replaced with another one due to bleaching in order to grab a CD for a party, that also fails to hew to the other metrics we follow, may be legal, but deserves more criticism than a map that avoids that. So I did the same thing you did and was cognizant of not only voting patterns and municipal lines, but also race.

[Torie]

Oh, are you using the 2020 projections? TBH I have not really been able to figure out how to use them.

I can send you my spreadsheet so that you can admire my genius if you like. PM me if so. You need a matrix chart to move county populations around, after projecting each county's population, an on the side for chops split the pop pie assuming the population change in the county is uniform. After some practice, you can move stuff around fairly quickly.

Ah I see! I may PM you--though I may hold off since I'm a little wary of using spreadsheets given the issues with divergent growth within counties.

In Franklin, the population change rate between Columbus and the balance of the county is very close. The difference between cities and suburbs in a country are in general far less divergent this time than they were in the run up to 2010. The cities came back.

[Torie]

Here is a map that gets rid of a county chop (only about 150 people are in play, far smaller than one precinct) between OH-06 and OH-15  (Scioto) in exchange for more erosity, and keeps OH-12 out of the City of Columbus, and gets the BCVAP of OH-03 up to 32%. It still snatches OH-12 away from the Dems of course by moving Fairfield from OH-15 to OH-12. This is what I call a gerrymander light map (in the Columbus area, not the Cincinnati area (the chop into Hamilton can be made into a much more Dem area and make the CD a couple a point or so more Pub), and certainly  not in the Cleveland area, where as we discussed, with a map that scores almost equally as well as drawn above, OH-07 can be a point or so more Pub).

In the Columbus area the map is drawn for partisan reasons, but other than that, scores close to the map which does not move Fairfield to OH-12 to make it a 100% suburban CD.

I might add that a lagniappe for the Pubs is that the incumbent Stivers lives in Arlington, so he is not discommoded.

[Torie]

Just to pull it all all together to complete this little exploration into partisan options, below is a Pub gerrymander light map  (i.e., a map that represents a reasonable choice in drawing the lines based on accepted metrics (other than of course competitiveness and proportionality), but the choice made always favors one party), that yes, I understand, will satisfy the "go for the throat" types about as much as watered down beer, but whatever. Gerrymander light maps are less likely to generate blow-back, and often will get the party drawing the lines about three quarters of what they want, but why should they play the long game, when one pines for instant gratification?

[Torie]

Infact the two side cross in Franklin is illegal to Ohio law.

Well fancy that. Who knew?

[Torie]

I moved the Hamilton County chop location to illustrate the gerrymandering "light" theme. If Hamilton County is not quite yet gone for the GOP, it soon will be. Resistance is futile.

[Torie]

Has anyone found a way to make a CVAP plurality Black district in Cleveland? I've tried a bunch with it but haven't been able to find a way which stays in Cuyahoga County--have to go into Twinsburg or surrounds.

You don't need to do that for legal, and certainly policy reasons. If more than 50% of the voters in a Dem primary are black, it is a per se performing black CD, under the law and otherwise. In this case, OH-11 in all events has many white voters in a Dem primary who are perfectly willing to vote for a black, and indeed many would consider that a plus.

[Torie]

Just to pull it all all together to complete this little exploration into partisan options, below is a Pub gerrymander light map  (i.e., a map that represents a reasonable choice in drawing the lines based on accepted metrics (other than of course competitiveness and proportionality), but the choice made always favors one party), that yes, I understand, will satisfy the "go for the throat" types about as much as watered down beer, but whatever. Gerrymander light maps are less likely to generate blow-back, and often will get the party drawing the lines about three quarters of what they want, but why should they play the long game, when one pines for instant gratification?




Seems mostly realistic and shows how easy it is to deny Democrats the chance at a second seat in Columbus. And you could go even further by not combining Delaware with any areas of Franklin.

The chop 12th's chop into Franklin from two sides is ugly, though. I would move the 3rd slightly to the SW (only slightly), leaving two chops of Franklin: A bigger one in the Sough and West that goes to the 15th and a smaller one in the NE that goes to the 12th.

Did you calculate numbers for the 12th? I wonder how it voted in 2020, although that's probably difficult to calculate at the moment.

Per the map above, which removed the alleged illegality that I internalized, voila! Trump 2020 was utterly toxic in Franklin, particularly bourgeoisie Franklin (ditto Delaware of course). Who knew? It helps when data sorting precinct by precinct numbers in a county, to have respected municipality lines, and within Columbus, ward lines. Ha! Life is beautiful.

[Torie]

This is a precinct by precinct data sort in Franklin, so these numbers should be very close to the correct ones. It is convenient for the Pubs that the counties south of Franklin love them so much in their current iteration. OH-15 can take a very big Franklin hit without any problem at all for them.

[Torie]

Torie, I think your OH-07 is illegal. Every district has to either be entirely contained within a single county or include at least one whole county. OH-07 only has parts of three different counties.

Right you are! I can't get away with anything with you guys!

Well, the gerrymander light will need to get a little less light then. I am going to punish the Dems for forcing me to follow this stupid law, and then punish them some more. I have a plan!

Sol or somebody started this by whining about severing Trumbull from Mahoning (that is legal isn't it?), and one thing leads to another and then another. OH-14 has some surplus Pubs, and it is time to put them to work! 

[Torie]

Torie, I think your OH-07 is illegal. Every district has to either be entirely contained within a single county or include at least one whole county. OH-07 only has parts of three different counties.

Right you are! I can't get away with anything with you guys!

Well, the gerrymander light will need to get a little less light then. I am going to punish the Dems for forcing me to follow this stupid law, and then punish them some more. I have a plan!

Sol or somebody started this by whining about severing Trumbull from Mahoning (that is legal isn't it?), and one thing leads to another and then another. OH-14 has some surplus Pubs, and it is time to put them to work! 

Cmon man, I was criticizing Kwabbit's fair map--if your priority is partisan advantage go to town!

Just kidding. Your comments always have substance. It is just a matter as to what is least bad, and what the Pubs might do, that won't blow up in their face, since they have the upper hand as another exercise. I like personally the map that splits Mahoning and Trumbell the best, because it has compensating advantages, and makes OH-07 very competitive, but there are always options.

[Torie]

Well with the legalities out of the way ... until the next one pops up! Again this map is based on 2020 census estimates.

[Torie]

I needed to correct some population errors that I found in my spreadsheet, but this Pub light gerrymander map is actually a pretty good map to my eyes (e.g., the populations work out very well to facilitate clean lines, particularly in NE Ohio), outside of the partisan location of the cut into Hamilton, and of course switching out of Fairfield from OH-15 to OH-12, which snatches a CD away from the Dems, unless the Trump malaise in the Columbus area keeps the Dem trends going out into the future. But for a few years, it should do the trick for them.