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Author Topic: Ohio redistricting thread  (Read 88320 times)
lfromnj
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« on: December 21, 2019, 05:14:30 PM »

All I know is that I better remain in a Republican district or else I'm not going to be happy.

If I was drawing a fair map you would probably be anchored by Toledo in Wood county so it would be a Lean D district at like Clinton +3  however its also possible for the GOP to easily just move west instead of taking Wood county to deep red territory and Wood county would also get a GOP rep.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1 on: December 21, 2019, 07:50:08 PM »
« Edited: December 21, 2019, 08:52:18 PM by lfromnj »

Oh also would like to mention despite the fact that Ohio is losing a district the Franklin county districts actually have to SHRINK(not by that much because ohio is losing a district but its still estimated that Franklin county alone will probably go from like 1.6 districts to 1.7 districts. Making another district 10% more Franklin can be quite key in redistricting. Meanwhile so many other areas especially the Appalachian district will have to expand by maybe as much as 10%.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #2 on: December 21, 2019, 10:15:44 PM »

OH's redistricting will certainly be interesting next decade. Due to overwhelming support for redistricting reform in the state, the Republicans were forced to make concessions in the form of a commission. While notably very weak, the Rs will at least have to somewhat respect its decisions lest it upset the electorate and spur another attempt at a non-partisan redistricting commission.

The map we are likely to see is one of a soft R gerrymander. OH-01 likely becomes a D seat, but Tim Ryan may find himself in trouble if the Rs can successfully argue that separating Youngstown from Akron is fair. Besides that, we may also see some unpacking of the D-sinks, but probably not enough to seriously put any seat in a marginal position.

The most likely result, in my opinion, is a 10-5 R map, with the possibility of Ds taking 2 more seats in a really good year.

 If the Ds are able to win two SC seats in 2020, however, then we likely get a fair map with a tilt towards the Republicans, perhaps something like 8-7 R.

How is 8-7 a tilt towards the Republican? Thats beyond the partisanship of Ohio. I would agree that a fair map might be around there but its in no way a GOP leaning map, id guess it would be 1 in cinci, 2 in Columbus, 1 tilt/lean D in toledo 2 in cleveland and 1 in akron/summit.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #3 on: April 21, 2020, 06:08:57 PM »

Why use DRA purple?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #4 on: April 21, 2020, 06:34:32 PM »

cause DRA purple has 2018 estimates and most of the new features that regular DRA doesn't.

Regular DRA has that now?

Also cant view your map
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lfromnj
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« Reply #5 on: April 21, 2020, 07:01:22 PM »
« Edited: April 21, 2020, 07:08:30 PM by lfromnj »

Id probably call Ohio 12th Lean D with that PVI, its a romney clinton district but the 5th is probably Lean R, its almost Trump +4. Also way too many county splits to be "good government" and way too many D districts if the Rs were drawing it, why not just combine Loraine and Cuyahoga for 2 districts?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #6 on: April 22, 2020, 07:18:59 PM »
« Edited: April 22, 2020, 07:23:36 PM by lfromnj »

In 2022, does Chabot retire or lose?

Again depends how they draw it, the Purple district there is R+3 and actually trending Republican due to the eastern portions and hes Safe even in a Trump midterm, if the GOP just concedes the seat then he would just retire. However if the GOP doesn't want the Ire and just agrees to clean in Hamilton they could also draw a district like this that would still Lean D but removes D black burbs rather than R exurbs and this would give him a fighting chance in a Biden midterm as its only D+1.9 PVI or probably around Clinton +7-8? . Would be doomed still in a Trump midterm.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #7 on: April 22, 2020, 08:31:26 PM »
« Edited: April 22, 2020, 08:37:23 PM by lfromnj »

In 2022, does Chabot retire or lose?

Again depends how they draw it, the Purple district there is R+3 and actually trending Republican due to the eastern portions and hes Safe even in a Trump midterm, if the GOP just concedes the seat then he would just retire. However if the GOP doesn't want the Ire and just agrees to clean in Hamilton they could also draw a district like this that would still Lean D but removes D black burbs rather than R exurbs and this would give him a fighting chance in a Biden midterm as its only D+1.9 PVI or probably around Clinton +7-8? . Would be doomed still in a Trump midterm.


OH-1 is definitely not trending R,   Romney won it by 9.5% and Trump only won it by 6.6%,  that's with Trump doing about 2% better nationally.

Warren and Hamilton counties both trended D.   Doesn't change much if you look at 2018 numbers either.

OH-2 is the district that's trending R due to the eastern exurbs/rurals (which are about 65% of the district)

The current ohio 1st is Romney +6 and Trump +6, IIRC it swung slightly R but still trended D, im saying the purple district in Water Hazards map, that would be the one taking in deep blue Cinci which probably didn't swing D in 2016 because its like 50% black.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #8 on: April 23, 2020, 08:58:36 AM »

As per usual, decided to try to make a fair map and compact map with 2018 numbers. Here it is:



https://davesredistricting.org/join/327146eb-0778-408e-824f-4be3bc9dab31

And the statistics for the districts (using PVI and 2012-2016 composite numbers):

OH-01: 55D-45R; D+3;
OH-02: 78D-22R; D+27; 47% black, 44% white
OH-03: 55D-45R; D+3
OH-04: 65D-35R; D+14
OH-05: 51D-49R; EVEN
OH-06: 34D-66R; R+18
OH-07: 46D-54R; R+6
OH-08: 48D-52R; R+4
OH-09: 48D-52R; R+4
OH-10: 51D-49R; R+1
OH-11: 54D-46R; D+2
OH-12: 37D-63R; R+15
OH-13: 37D-63R; R+15
OH-14: 37D-63R; R+15
OH-15: 31D-69R; R+21

So in total, this map should have a lot of competitive or potentially competitive districts. In an R wave the GOP could get up to 2-13 in fact! (although 4-11 is way more likely). Similarly in a D wave Democrats can probably get up to 10-5.
In a perfectly neutral year how many seats would the Ds win?

It would depend on a lot of factors like trends, incumbency and what not.

Still, for a perfectly neutral year in 2022 I think Dems should win the 2 safe seats (2 and 4); the 2 borderline safe seats (1 and 3), the likely seat (11) and the tossup 5th district; for a total of 6 Dem districts on a purely neutral year. The 10th I think would go GOP by an incredibly narrow margin but still goes R by like 0.1 or something. It would be a true pure tossup.

So basically in a neutral year it should be 6D-9R on average; but 5D-10R and 7D-8R are both perfectly doable.

Again the 3rd isn't really safe and the 11th actually voted for Trump, the tossup 5th is actually more Safe than the 3rd or the 11th. Also the 5th seat should include all of northern Franklin including Dublin, Dublin would make the district a decent bit more R(its composite R is 55 R to D but Clinton actually won Dublin by 2 points!)
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lfromnj
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« Reply #9 on: April 23, 2020, 04:30:21 PM »

Reminder that OH redistricting reform forbids cutting counties more than once unless they are the largest five - in which case they can be cut twice. You are also required to base a district out of those cities large enough to dominate said district (Columbus and Cleveland) and any county between 95% and 105% of a district needs to have a seat based in it (Cincinnati). I also think there are restrictions/bans on parallel cuts (two districts cutting two same counties), but the text is ambiguous in regards to them. There is also minor provisions regarding large locales and how they can't be cut if they are of a significant size, and how one should make an effort to keep them with their surroundings.

The reform is rather strict in it's guidelines, but is lax as far as the gerrymanders observe said guidelines.

That rule, along with the exception to splitting cities applying to only Cleveland and Cincinnati, sounds to me like some real packing and cracking garbage, with emphasis on the former.

Trust me, I know how Ohio Republicans think, and they are is every bit ruthless and shamefaced as their counterparts in North Carolina and Texas about blatant gerrymandering and thinking of any way they can get away with it to maximize their power.

I assure you that the mathematical equation prohibiting splitting cities of over 100,000 unless they're County can support multiple congressional districts is by no means coincidental, as opposed to explicitly planned when the language of this proposal was drafted.

Being able to pass a map with a simple majority was very much explicitly planned as well.

I'd say it's like 95% chance a 4 year map is what ends up getting passed next year, probably with only Republican votes.
Wouldn't it be 85-90%? . If D's flip the Ohio Supreme Court I can't see R's being as stupid as PA R's and not atleast drawing a reasonable map.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #10 on: April 24, 2020, 08:50:45 AM »

A four-year map only happens if the first three rounds to fail. Isn’t it more likely the GOP draws a slightly less favorable map than the current one for 10 years?

Why would a 4 year map be bad for the GOP?
I guess there is the slight risk of losing two statewide races(governor + auditor) and then the D's can gerrymander to a degree back but its unlikely and 4 year maps are also good in the sense that they now a legal excuse to do a Delaymander to fix any possible "trends" such as swing backs in the Mahoning Valley or further trends in Columbus.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #11 on: April 24, 2020, 09:48:37 AM »

A four-year map only happens if the first three rounds to fail. Isn’t it more likely the GOP draws a slightly less favorable map than the current one for 10 years?

Why would a 4 year map be bad for the GOP?
I guess there is the slight risk of losing two statewide races(governor + auditor) and then the D's can gerrymander to a degree back but its unlikely and 4 year maps are also good in the sense that they now a legal excuse to do a Delaymander to fix any possible "trends" such as swing backs in the Mahoning Valley or further trends in Columbus.
Is there any chance that both parties will agree in round 1, 2, or 3?

Again depends on Ohio Supreme court, assuming it doesn't flip then D's should honestly just cave at 4 or 5 seats and not be stupid there.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #12 on: April 24, 2020, 10:05:31 AM »
« Edited: April 24, 2020, 10:14:34 AM by lfromnj »

I think Democrats get 5 or 6 out of the 15 seats. Chabot’s Cincinnati district becomes Democratic. O’Connor might get a seat in Columbus.

6 seats is going really far and what a fair map would result in and only happens if the Ohio GOP doesn't control the supreme court, if they do the best I would expect is one Cinci, One columbus, Cleveland VRA, Lean D toledo and Akron/Youngstown and everything else Likely/Safe R, and reminder its still legal to draw a 13-2 map


(Krazen's account btw so mods can give a fair "warning" if im a sock Tongue
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lfromnj
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« Reply #13 on: April 24, 2020, 10:18:36 AM »

I think Democrats get 5 or 6 out of the 15 seats. Chabot’s Cincinnati district becomes Democratic. O’Connor might get a seat in Columbus.

6 seats is going really far and what a fair map would result in and only happens if the Ohio GOP doesn't control the supreme court, if they do the best I would expect is one Cinci, One columbus, Cleveland VRA, Lean D toledo and Akron/Youngstown and everything else Likely/Safe R, and reminder its still legal to draw a 13-2 map


(Krazen's account btw so mods can give a fair "warning" if im a sock Tongue
Then it’s 10-5 (with a Democratic Cincinnati district).

Thats if the GOP's feeling worried about voter backlash btw.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #14 on: April 24, 2020, 10:32:20 AM »

Cincinnati gets a Democratic district. Chabot has one of the most ridiculous districts.

Oh its definitely a bad district, don't get me wrong its just a question of whether the GOP feels like passing a similar Ohio 1st would result in similar voter anger.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #15 on: April 24, 2020, 10:39:00 AM »

What if they did a simple chop of the county where one district is Butler+as much of Hamilton as possible and the rest is thrown in with Clermont and other counties to the east? It'd look very clean...

You mean as Krazen did?
Yeah its relatively clean although its hard to argue why a county in a corner of a state that makes up almost exactly one district should be split.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #16 on: April 24, 2020, 10:42:34 AM »

What if they did a simple chop of the county where one district is Butler+as much of Hamilton as possible and the rest is thrown in with Clermont and other counties to the east? It'd look very clean...

You mean as Krazen did?
Yeah its relatively clean although its hard to argue why a county in a corner of a state that makes up almost exactly one district should be split.
I was thinking more a simple mostly north-south line.

Might need to split Cinci which isn't legal.? Can you try making it in DRA? After finishing it also show the city lines in the map.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #17 on: April 24, 2020, 12:38:16 PM »
« Edited: April 24, 2020, 12:42:08 PM by lfromnj »

Heres the thing about the Cincinatii seat, It doesn't help the rest of the map at all,   Either you get one Clinton +10 district and one Trump +20 or two Trump +10ish(with some margin such as Ohio 1st)
For example keeping a similar youngstown sink would still help the GOP because it could prevent NE from going 1 D - 3R to 3 or 4 D seats.  So maybe the R's could offer the Ds Tim ryans seat and a tossup Toledo seat but Chabot is saved.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #18 on: April 24, 2020, 02:30:34 PM »
« Edited: April 24, 2020, 02:38:17 PM by lfromnj »

a fair Ohio map should be 7D-8R, with one or two of the 7 being competitive.

D seats:

1 Cincinnati
1 Columbus
2 Lakefront (Toledo/Lorain)
2 Cleveland
1 Youngstown/NE Ohio




You can't get two D seats from Cuyahoga county anymore, the county (and D vote) has shrunk by a lot. You would need to take in some suburbs. Same with the lakeshore. A second D seat is more likely to emerge from Columbus at this point.

Cuyahoga and Lorain should be almost exactly 2 seats in 2020 and in a fair map Lean D west and Safe D east.

Anyway I think 1 Safe D in each of the 3 big is fair,(Depending how much you consider the Cinci seat Safe) then a lean D in columbus and 2-3 competitive seats in the Lake to youngstown area.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #19 on: April 24, 2020, 08:10:00 PM »
« Edited: April 24, 2020, 08:22:04 PM by lfromnj »

You split Cleveland(the city of like 350k people) three times, doubt thats legal and no Karptur isn't Safe shes gonna be facing Bob Latta in a Trump +4 Seat, Tilt R. Also Tim Ryans in a pure tossup seat and Ohio 15th and 9th both voted for Trump and should be Lean R(not sure about the 9th).
However the 2nd Columbus seat should be almost Safe D at a D+2 PVI as it includes the richest and hardest D trending burbs of Franklin and was probably around also Obama +5 in 2012 that makes it almost double digit Clinton and Likely D.(only thing that makes me unsure is the Licking county part trending hard D in 2012 and then returning back harder R)
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lfromnj
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« Reply #20 on: April 24, 2020, 08:16:29 PM »

what's the rule about splitting Cleveland? Isn't Cuyahoga currently split between 11, 14, and 16?

TBF not sure if its legal but you split the city of Cleveland itself 3 times which isn't a very good look. Splitting Cuyohoga three times is fine but splitting a city of around 350k three times isn't very good.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #21 on: April 24, 2020, 09:00:25 PM »
« Edited: April 24, 2020, 09:16:43 PM by lfromnj »

Considering Cincinnati can't be split either,  I'm starting to wonder if it's really possible for Republicans to gerrymander OH-1.

Since the city can't be split that means the 4 enclaves within it have to be included in OH-1 as well, and altogether their population is about 328K in 2018.   The D+22.63 PVI doesn't actually tell the whole story either since Clinton improved from Romney's numbers in 2012.  

Even if you just make a minimal connection to the eastern rural counties to make an R gerrymander, about the best you can get with whole counties is around R+2 (again, Cincinnati trended D from 2012 to 2016, so rural trend is probably close to cancelled out).    

By 2022 there's no real guarantee that R+2 will still have a Republican lean since Cincinnati is a growth hub and Clermont is the only county to the east growing.  

I actually think all this puts Republicans in a tough spot for OH-1.  





Did Cincinatti actually trend D? I feel like its more just the blood red burbs being much less red but still quite red? And Cincinatti the city only grew by like 1.9%, helps Ds a bit but not much.

Also lol some of the counties you included were literally tied in 2012(romney won Pike county by 1 vote) but were 67% Trump in 2016. The PVI in those counties are much more understated than Hamiltons 5 point D trend.

Edit: my bad didn't realize Pike county wasn't included but point stands.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #22 on: April 24, 2020, 09:07:55 PM »
« Edited: April 24, 2020, 09:20:12 PM by lfromnj »

Considering Cincinnati can't be split either,  I'm starting to wonder if it's really possible for Republicans to gerrymander OH-1.

Since the city can't be split that means the 4 enclaves within it have to be included in OH-1 as well, and altogether their population is about 328K in 2018.   The D+22.63 PVI doesn't actually tell the whole story either since Clinton improved from Romney's numbers in 2012.  

Even if you just make a minimal connection to the eastern rural counties to make an R gerrymander, about the best you can get with whole counties is around R+2 (again, Cincinnati trended D from 2012 to 2016, so rural trend is probably close to cancelled out).    

By 2022 there's no real guarantee that R+2 will still have a Republican lean since Cincinnati is a growth hub and Clermont is the only county to the east growing.  

I actually think all this puts Republicans in a tough spot for OH-1.  


Did Cincinatti actually trend D? I feel like its more just the blood red burbs being much less red but still quite red? And Cincinatti the city only grew by like 1.9%, helps Ds a bit but not much

The eastern half of the city trended D pretty sharply.   Parts of the northwest trended R slightly.

Dude you do realize those rural counties went from 60% Romney to 74% Trump(2 party share). The PVI is definetely more R in 2016 than 2012. And those rural counties form 260k of the population compared to 350k for cinci. Again southern Ohio trended D in 2012 with some Ross swinging like 5 points D but then swinging like 28 points to Trump. Ross county by itself literally cancels out half of the entire NET margin vote swing In all of hamilton county.

Don't ignore trends when it doesn't favor your party.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #23 on: April 24, 2020, 11:56:33 PM »

The most Republican district I could make on DistrictR with the city of Cincinnati + blood-red rurals was Trump +4.

Did you include for 2018 pop and 15 districts?, best idea is to trace that district.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #24 on: April 25, 2020, 12:18:00 AM »
« Edited: April 25, 2020, 12:22:59 AM by lfromnj »

The most Republican district I could make on DistrictR with the city of Cincinnati + blood-red rurals was Trump +4.

Did you include for 2018 pop and 15 districts?, best idea is to trace that district.

Oops I did not know Ohio was projected to lose a district. I'll try it again. Are there restrictions on county splits with the new commission?

Hamilton is allowed to be split in this area other counties aren't
edit:  Butler should probably be allowed to be split too and Clermont maybe and not sure about Warren.



If you gonna calculate it anyway do me a favor and calculate this green district. District Looks around Trump +4.5 eyeballing it with obama 08 51.7 and Mccain 46.9 and an R+2.00 PVI when every county in this district trended D in 2012 and Scioto swung D and im pretty sure Cinci should have swung D in 2012 due to black turnout, so im eyeballing an even even PVI in 2012 which means R+4 or Clinton +2-8 which is Trump +6 and then I am probably overestimating it so its around Trump +4.5 to 5.

This district is equalized for 2018 pop.
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