Ohio redistricting thread

[cvparty]

democrats suffer from a poor geographic distribution and rapid unfavorable trends. honestly they should expect an average of 5 seats, with up to 7 in a really good year. a fair map in the 2020s would look something like:

6 safe R (rurals, cinci burbs, cleveland exurbs)
2 likely R (NE ohio, dayton)
2 lean R (toledo, cleveland burbs)

2 likely D (akron, columbus burbs)
3 safe D (3 Cs)

[cvparty]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/bf2b2217-b59d-49e3-9cb7-a0ff2c1a28ed
8R-4S-3D
Swing district has pvi under 5.  2 of the swing districts lean dem, 2 lean rep.

that's a weird map of ohio

[cvparty]

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/07/11/holy-toledo-a-legal-13-2-ohio/

RRH out with their 13-2 gerrymander of Ohio.

How is this legal given the state's guidelines about not cutting counties?

16 counties may be cut and 2 may be double cut. Pretty sure its legal. You have to split some counties no matter what.

Even if it is, the legal arguments in this map are next to nothing regarding not favoring a political party and not splitting up communities of interests etc.   If the court is anything but a hyper partisan Republican hack job it would get struck down.

Oh, I just noticed that *SIX* of the Republican districts are R+5 or less. This is a dummymander that would collapse in a 2020-like environment.

lol, R+5 in Ohio outside of Columbus or Cleveland is double digit Trump like Ohio 14th. This might backfire with the suburban Cleveland district a bit but everything else is Safe R.

You can’t anchor a district in Toledo or Akron and make it safe R. Besides, isn’t PVI based on the national results, not state results? R+4 on national results is a seat Biden’s probably going to win this year.

(EDIT) I checked the DRA link. That Toledo district is R+4 which means it just barely went to Trump. This is a dummymander, end of story.

R+4 literally means combined PVI of 2016 and 2012. Which means 2012 numbers are still included lol. The Toledo district is literally trump +11 if you trace it on districtr
https://twitter.com/cacameronGOP/status/1282036322824118272

And the Cincinatti seat isn't even a dummymander even if it flips because that seat that doesn't affect any other seats besides Ohio 1st.

Ok, I’m corrected about Trump’s results in 2016, but what that means it went Democratic by a decent margin in 2012, and I know that part of Ohio went big for Obama in 2008. If Ohio swings back to parity as polls show districts like that are going to swing more than average for the state. I’d love to see the Sherrod Brown numbers for these districts.

i feel like that’s wishful thinking, sure biden might narrowly win a couple of the districts but that would be with a near double-digit PV win. none of these districts went D in any race in 2018 except for sherrod brown, who is now basically the one exception in ohio; it’s likely that ohio regularly votes like in 2016 in the 2020s, possibly even more republican

[cvparty]

here is my best attempt at a ~fair map~, it's 9-6 trump but probably 10-5 R in the 2020s

OH-01: Obama +8 | Obama +8 | Clinton +12
OH-02: McCain +28 | Romney +32 | Trump +33
OH-03: Obama +34 | Obama +39 | Clinton +36
OH-04: McCain +17 | Romney +20 | Trump +41
OH-05: Obama +21 | Obama +20 | Clinton +3
OH-06: McCain +3 | Romney +8 | Trump +38
OH-07: Obama +12 | Obama +8 | Trump +10
OH-08: McCain +26 | Romney +33 | Trump +51
OH-09: Obama +5 | Obama +2 | Trump +7
OH-10: Obama +2 | Obama +1 | Trump +6
OH-11: Obama +57 | Obama +61 | Clinton +54
OH-12: McCain +3 | Romney +5 | Clinton +6
OH-13: Obama +17 | Obama +17 | Trump +10
OH-14: Obama +8 | Obama +5 | Clinton +4
OH-15: McCain +19 | Romney +18 | Trump +42

[cvparty]

CV could you show district numbers or colors ?

updated

[cvparty]

here is my best attempt at a ~fair map~, it's 9-6 trump but probably 10-5 R in the 2020s

Some of those county splits are illegal.  My fair map only has 3 extra county splits (Hamilton, Franklin, and Cuyahoga will be split on any map) and the smallest county I split is Medina county, popuation: 177,000.  A lot of what shapes the districts on the Ohio map is the county math, some combos don't work.  
On my R gerrymander map, the smallest county cut is Trumbull, over 200k population. 

can you point out specifically which splits are illegal? i read the rules before drawing the map, pretty sure i followed them so idk what you're referring to

[cvparty]

here is my best attempt at a ~fair map~, it's 9-6 trump but probably 10-5 R in the 2020s

Some of those county splits are illegal.  My fair map only has 3 extra county splits (Hamilton, Franklin, and Cuyahoga will be split on any map) and the smallest county I split is Medina county, popuation: 177,000.  A lot of what shapes the districts on the Ohio map is the county math, some combos don't work.  
On my R gerrymander map, the smallest county cut is Trumbull, over 200k population. 

can you point out specifically which splits are illegal? i read the rules before drawing the map, pretty sure i followed them so idk what you're referring to

Jackson county.  not the only one tho

um what part of the amendment precludes that split? or any of the other allegedly illegal splits

[cvparty]

here is my best attempt at a ~fair map~, it's 9-6 trump but probably 10-5 R in the 2020s

Some of those county splits are illegal.  My fair map only has 3 extra county splits (Hamilton, Franklin, and Cuyahoga will be split on any map) and the smallest county I split is Medina county, popuation: 177,000.  A lot of what shapes the districts on the Ohio map is the county math, some combos don't work.  
On my R gerrymander map, the smallest county cut is Trumbull, over 200k population. 

can you point out specifically which splits are illegal? i read the rules before drawing the map, pretty sure i followed them so idk what you're referring to

Jackson county.  not the only one tho

um what part of the amendment precludes that split? or any of the other allegedly illegal splits

only large counties can be split. look up the specifics

um no? from XIX.02: "of the eighty-eight counties in this state, sixty-five counties shall be contained entirely within a district, eighteen counties may be split not more than once, and five counties may be split not more than twice." even RRH's awful albeit legal map splits a number of small counties. stop trolling lol come back when you've actually read the rules

and side note your "fair" map cuts up COIs like nobody's business and violates article xix section 1 3a of the state constitution. 12-3 trump? where's that ~statewide vote~ energy you had with california

[cvparty]

At this point, it is unclear which counties can be split.  But I had read that it was only the most populated ones.  The amendment does include language that it will have to be determined not just how many counties can be split, but also which.  

literally every map in this thread but yours has small county splits and there's nothing in the constitution that prohibits it, so stop claiming it's illegal because you "had read that" from an unnamed source as opposed to the actual state constitution

My fair map keeps communities together, what you said is hogwash.  I guess Democrats count as a community of interest to you lol.  Also my California map (totally irreverent to this discussion btw) gave republicans fewer seats than their statewide vote share, due to political geography.  My Ohio map does the same to democrats.  Just how the cookie crumbles.  

this whole paragraph might be the most foolish thing you've ever said. there's so many things wrong with your map, but any map that separates delaware and franklin counties is already bad. i drew my map with partisan data off, it gives trump 60% of the districts, and by no means maximizes dem votes (see: akron, elyria, youngstown) nor GOP ones so and my point is you very clearly draw with a republican bias to try to "correct" (to an extent) states with a dem-favoring geography (CA), but in states with a neutral or GOP-favoring geography, you suddenly don't care about the statewide vote and actually gerrymander even more, all while claiming to preserve unnamed COIs every time. there is no consistency there except wanting republicans to win. you know it's kind of disappointing that you don't make any genuine contributions to the whole redistricting conversation

[cvparty]

I think this might be the best way to divide Columbus. I basically took all of Franklin East of the Scioto besids Westerville and NW Columbus. The rest went to the district with Delaware. That district is R+6 composite(NOT PVI) so probably around Trump +3 or so as the area swung like 6 points left. Keeps the minority side of Columbus together for a 33.5 % black district . Anyway the 2nd district is lean R but still trending D.

edit:
Just moved all of downtown Columbus into the blue district, theres a decent number of bridges there so it seems pretty fine.

it makes more sense in terms of COIs to put new albany, upper arlington, clintonville etc. in the green district in exchange for sw franklin/columbus (there's a pretty significant minority pop there)

[cvparty]

This was an attempt at a "minimal changes" map that follows all the new rules.  Let me know if you think I've made a mistake in following them.  The old 4th district is the lost district under this map and the new 4th district is the successor of the current 16th.  Although I didn't set out to eliminate Jordan I could see him not being missed much given his history as a thorn in the side of GOP leadership and his ties to the OSU sexual abuse scandal.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/f3296b3d-2788-41fc-b174-376ffa09c4b1
Partisan wise I'd give the following ratings (I'm not sure how people are getting separate 2012/2016 numbers so I'm doing some rough estimating)

1: Safe R
2: Tossup
3: Safe D
4 (old 16): Lean/Likely R
5: Safe R (possible primary Jordan v Latta)
6: Safe R
7: Likely R
8: Safe R (possible primary Jordan v Davidson)
9: Safe D
10: Likely R
11: Safe D
12: Safe R
13: Safe D
14: Tossup (probably R advantage)
15: Likely R

Overall the map still gives an undue advantage to Republicans but it is better than the current map for Democrats.  It would definitely protect all the Democratic incumbents even in a good Republican environment but with the tossups in 2 & 14 I'd expect a 10R-5D split in on average over the decade.  Republicans could potentially be vulnerable in 4, 7, and 10 when the environment is good for Democrats.  Even 15 could potentially swing D depending on trends in Columbus.  

your map looks good in terms of following the rules, but including the inner cleveland suburbs in the 14th definitely wouldn't fly with joyce; should prob swap them out for GOP-leaning towns west of the cuyahoga river (obviously including glenwillow to valley view to keep the split contiguous). also, clinton only won the 9th and 13th by single digits. don't really think it's actually possible to draw a safe D district outside the 3 Cs anymore

[cvparty]

your map looks good in terms of following the rules, but including the inner cleveland suburbs in the 14th definitely wouldn't fly with joyce; should prob swap them out for GOP-leaning towns west of the cuyahoga river (obviously including glenwillow to valley view to keep the split contiguous). also, clinton only won the 9th and 13th by single digits. don't really think it's actually possible to draw a safe D district outside the 3 Cs anymore

I agree that there is probably a better balance between the 11th, 14th, and 4th.  I will admit to being a little lazy there.

I think that the partisan lean of the 9th and 13th really depends on if you view the 2016 result as the beginning of a long-term trend or a best-case GOP scenario due to extraordinary circumstances.  I would argue that it is the latter. Sherrod Brown won both 9th and the 13th handily in 2018 and while Cordray didn't do quite as well he still likely won them both too.  I could see how others might rate those two districts as likely D rather than safe but I still think it would take a lot to flip either of them.

Also 2016 was an extremely high water mark for the Republican presidential ticket in Ohio which I believe was largely a negative reaction to the candidacy of Hillary Clinton rather than a positive realignment towards Republicans.  I would bet that most generic Democrats wouldn't have too much trouble recreating Obama's 2012 result or Brown's 2018 result.  I'm actually expecting to see a very similar result in 2020.

sherrod brown's like the one exception nowadays, every other statewide election went republican in a nationwide blue wave. even brown couldn't match obama 2012 levels in the blue collar areas--sign of the times? it's definitely plausible that ohio trends more republican in the next 10 years, and in midterm elections those seats could fall. i'm sure they'd still have an overall D lean though

[cvparty]

i meant to post this a while ago but i tweaked my map a little bit if anyone would like to critique (mostly just changes to the columbus area to make districts more compact and follow city lines--obviously i'd smooth out the ugly precinct lines)


OH-01: Obama +8 | Obama +8 | Clinton +12
OH-02: McCain +28 | Romney +32 | Trump +33
OH-03: Obama +36 | Obama +41 | Clinton +38
OH-04: McCain +16 | Romney +19 | Trump +39
OH-05: Obama +20 | Obama +19 | Clinton +2
OH-06: McCain +3 | Romney +8 | Trump +38
OH-07: Obama +12 | Obama +8 | Trump +10
OH-08: McCain +28 | Romney +34 | Trump +53
OH-09: Obama +8 | Obama +5 | Trump +3
OH-10: Obama +2 | Obama +1 | Trump +6
OH-11: Obama +53 | Obama +57 | Clinton +48
OH-12: McCain +3 | Romney +6 | Clinton +5
OH-13: Obama +17 | Obama +17 | Trump +10
OH-14: Obama +8 | Obama +5 | Clinton +4
OH-15: McCain +19 | Romney +19 | Trump +43

[cvparty]

Tbh lakewood belongs in the Cleveland seat. It's pretty much urban as its denser than Cleveland itself . Switch Parma and lakewood. Also this is pretty minor but have 4 take in eastern pickerngton county.

i just put it in 9 bc it seems similar to avon lake/westlake/rocky river and makes the districts more compact. also idk what you mean by pickerington county

[cvparty]

                                                      OHIO MAP BASED ON PROJ 2020 CENSUS

Don't think having 3 districts in Franklin is legal. Not sure if I like splitting Butler over Warren, which is more Dayton oriented.

you can double-split up to 5 counties and single-split up to 18 counties

[cvparty]

Here's a map which readjusts Springfield. I also made a few edits in Cuyahoga, but not exactly the same as what you suggested lfromnj--I don't love the odd boundary between the Eastern suburbs district and Cleveland. Does this put the streetcar suburbia properly in Cleveland?

Yeah thats fine, I didn't like it either (that boundary with regards to Pike)and I am willing to split one more township but turns out you didn't have to in your estimates.

I would probably also be willing to split a northern Summit town rather than taking an inner ring Akron suburb with the Eastern Cleveland district. Although northern Summit is still Akron Suburbia Its closer to a mix between the 2 areas.

One last thing is I would try to find a way to put Union County with the northern Cbus district although if it would ruin the rest of your map don't do it.

Is Union County really much of a CoI with greater Columbus?

Union and Madison are kind of awkward--they don't fit in great with Ashland and Mansfield, or with Southern Ohio. However, they have a lot of people so if you put them in the 4th you have to lose a lot of people.

in addition to lfromnj’s points, if you look at the 2020 swing map, union actually had the biggest swing against trump after warren and delaware, which reflects its increasing suburbanization as development spills over from delaware/north franklin

edit: also if you intend on only splitting franklin once, then you won’t even have to worry about this because franklin+delaware will have just enough population for two districts with the 2020 census numbers (“2018” population on DRA is really like 2016 because of its 5-year nature)

[cvparty]

The dissents that would have struck down the 2012 maps relied on specific clauses in the requirements for districts (that they not divide too many counties etc.)  Under what clause would the OH court strike this down?  Note that there is no general "fairness" clause.  

Obviously the commission would have to fail, and the legislature unable to create a bipartisan map, in order for this to come into play, and it would only be in effect for 4 years.  So I don't expect that this map will actually come to pass, there's more incentive to play nice.  But this is the worst-case scenario if you're a Dem.

it would get struck down under this:

(6) If a congressional district includes only part of the territory of a particular county, the part of that congressional district that lies in that particular county shall be contiguous within the boundaries of the county.

[cvparty]

I recreated the proposal in DRA (had to estimate OH-15 in northern Franklin). Looks like it's still 4 Dem seats, but 1 and 13 were very narrowly Biden
1: Biden +2
9: Trump +5
10: Trump +4
13: Biden +1
15: Trump +6

[cvparty]

I think I've finally made a map that I'm content with. 15 county splits apart from multi-county cities and very compact. It also keeps all major metro areas, Akron-Canton, Cleveland/Columbus/Cincinnati's suburbs, Amish communities, minority communities (two majority-minority seats) and most of Appalachian Ohio respectively together.

In addition to the COIs kept that I tried to maximize, it would fit the court's demand for partisan fairness pretty well: it goes 9-6 for Trump in 2016 and 2020. Any Democrat that wins the state carries a majority of districts; Obama would have won 8/15, and Dems won 7/15 in both their narrow GOV/AG losses in 2018, with the 8th seat being within a couple points of winning. Brown would have won 10/15