UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[CumbrianLefty]

I think this totally delusional briefing about the YouGov poll might actually be coming from Hunt rather than Sunak (the former still counts as "Downing Street" do they not)

[Torrain]

There was some... optimistic briefing in Bloomberg this week, about potentially going in May if the polls narrow to a 10% Lab lead, and the economy improves. Plan being to deny Labour a majority, and keep Sunak for a second election later in the year.

Presumably that's coming from the same source briefing about the YouGov polling? Either that, or there's a wave of unfounded confidence spreading through Downing Street.

[CumbrianLefty]

These briefers do seem to think that Levido and Crosby are genuine miracle workers.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It is also the case that a 10pt Labour lead in a GE would result in a substantial parliamentary majority, now that Scotland is not a dead zone and that swings in England are not going to be remotely proportional. Immediate post-2019 GE analysis of what would be required for a Labour majority has no particular connection to reality as it now is.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

These briefers do seem to think that Levido and Crosby are genuine miracle workers.

Great strategic wizards from Oz! Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!

Sidenote - if Crosby genuinely has any power whatsoever over Rishi there's no chance of a January election. He tried that gambit before... in Queensland in 2015. The psychological scars haven't healed.

[RilakkuMAGA]

Good start

https://twitter.com/BBCJLandale/status/1728105949146288378

Atlas Dems RUSHING to condemn the new tankie zoomer brainwashed by TikTok *checks notes*, David Cameron.

[Blair]

The difference between the main parties on this issue from 2006-2021 was basically largely about tone & what you call out- but the building blocks (opposing settlement expansion, supporting non-preferential treatment for goods from settlements, calling for a two state solution etc) have been the same even in the Corbyn years.

It is also the case that a 10pt Labour lead in a GE would result in a substantial parliamentary majority, now that Scotland is not a dead zone and that swings in England are not going to be remotely proportional. Immediate post-2019 GE analysis of what would be required for a Labour majority has no particular connection to reality as it now is.

Yes I can remember in 2021 having discussions that were basically 'oh well none of this actually matters as Labour will never get a majority in the next election because the hill is now so high' whereas now anything under 350 seats will be seen as a fumbled chance! Cliche to say but v funny how things have changed so quickly.

[CumbrianLefty]

Good start

https://twitter.com/BBCJLandale/status/1728105949146288378

Atlas Dems RUSHING to condemn the new tankie zoomer brainwashed by TikTok *checks notes*, David Cameron.

With few exceptions, the most 1000% iron clad Israel enthusiasts on here have blue avatars.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sunak appears to have decided that a diplomatic spat with Greece over the Elgin Marbles will turn everything around: he pulled out of a meeting with Mitsotakis at the last minute because Mitsotakis had made the traditional remarks about the need for the sculptures to return to Athens, as all Greek Prime Ministers do. Making it all the more absurd is the fact that Mitsotakis met with Starmer earlier today.

[Torrain]

So Starmer spent the morning playing PM-in-waiting with Mitsotakis, and Sunak ended up throwing a wobbly about some very milquetoast Greek rhetoric? Bizarre - especially given CCHQ’s “you can’t trust/risk Labour” stuff, that’s doesn’t ring true after a few rounds of these comparisons.

It’s triggered some very Westminster Brain responses - James Johnson is stubbornly insisting that this is all 3D chess, and Sunak has set a culture war trap for Starmer.

[Wiswylfen]

https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/1729268256442298551

[Blair]

Who are the voters they’re hoping care? Devout Turkish Cypriots?

As Jess Phillips rather suggested rather tongue in cheek the problem is most people don’t know what the Elgin Marbles are or why this matters!

It’s not even as if Starmer or Osbourne is going to give them away- it’s a loan agreement!

It’s very funny how this news went alongside polling showing Labours lead rising- despite lots of breathless reporting about a May Election.

[TheTide]

Comically it's now reached the stage where it's leading the headlines on the BBC News website, despite the various other things going on in the world.

[Cassius]

The Elgin Marbles should be returned to Turkey.

[CumbrianLefty]

James Johnson is reaching PolProf Badlose levels of grift now.

Surprised his genuinely hilarious "analysis" about the coming election in the weekend's Telegraph hasn't previously been mentioned here - amongst several classics for the ages it "reveals" that there are currently about 14 million votes "banked" for Labour as opposed to only 8 million for the Tories - but a Labour win is not guaranteed because all this extra support might pile up in already safe seats.

(this is apparently something also fervently espoused by Tory "strategy guru" Levido - the fact there is literally zero evidence for it in local elections, by-elections or polling internals doesn't matter)

[gerritcole]

The vast vast majority of the British museum should be returned to the nations of origin

[EastAnglianLefty]

I don't think most of the BM's collections are of that much interest to the governments of origin. There are a few items that are broadly analogous (notably the Benin bronzes), but I don't think that if the marbles are returned the Greek government will then follow up by asking for the black-figure vases and Mycenaean spearheads back.

[Sol]

Wasn't there talk of returning the Elgin marbles being part of the Brexit deal? Pity that didn't happen.

[morgieb]

James Johnson is reaching PolProf Badlose levels of grift now.

Surprised his genuinely hilarious "analysis" about the coming election in the weekend's Telegraph hasn't previously been mentioned here - amongst several classics for the ages it "reveals" that there are currently about 14 million votes "banked" for Labour as opposed to only 8 million for the Tories - but a Labour win is not guaranteed because all this extra support might pile up in already safe seats.

(this is apparently something also fervently espoused by Tory "strategy guru" Levido - the fact there is literally zero evidence for it in local elections, by-elections or polling internals doesn't matter)

If anything I wouldn’t be surprised if Labour go backwards in their ultra-safe seats given certain policy decisions by Starman.

[Torrain]

First lively PMQs in a while:

• Sunak did an odd bit about Starmer's love for Ode to Joy and him being an EU Trojan Horse at PMQs. Surreal to watch him do the full Matt Goodwin from the dispatch box - thought that line wouldn't escape Twitter. 
• He then made a series of attacks on the Greek PM's "grandstanding", and accused Starmer of siding with foreign nations over Britain for meeting with him. Genuine frustration with Athens on show.
• Starmer had a lot of fun with Sunak's flailing on Greece and the immigration situation. Describing the PM's "one man war on reality" felt like a nice summation of Sunak's knack of picking the least popular side of any given wedge issue.
• In a moment of serendipity, Sunak's final line to Starmer: "Britain isn't listening!" faded away, as the Commons microphone was turned off early to allow the Speaker to interject.
• Also, the people's PM, Rehman Chishti appeared, and launched a pretty heated attack on the PM over inaction on islamophobia within the Conservative Party.

[CumbrianLefty]

Lively is one way of putting it, Sunak's absolute worst PMQs since taking over may be another.

The near total silence from his benches throughout was almost eerie, even more than usual Mordaunt looked like she would rather be literally anywhere else, and Rishi was so beaten and demoralised that he didn't even play the lame "but Corbyn!!" gambit he so often does when in difficulty.

[oldtimer]

Wasn't there talk of returning the Elgin marbles being part of the Brexit deal? Pity that didn't happen.

I'll tell you a little well known secret.

The Greek PM introduced his new tax bill this week, which is full of tax hikes, especially for the self-employed.

Taxes for them for someone who has 15k profits will go up from 3.7k to 10.4k , that will force huge price increases to pay for the tax rises, which will impact the rest of the economy.

So the view in Greece is that the Marbles issue was used (as is often) to brush the new tax bill from the greek headlines.

[Silent Hunter]

My view is that if the Greeks can look after the Marbles, they can have them back.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Would it be a complete philistine remark to ask if we could just comission our own replica to put in the museum?

[Alcibiades]

Alistair Darling has died. Sad, and at least to me surprising, news; he was only 70.