MN 2022 Gov Race Megathread

[Alben Barkley]

Latest poll from Change Research (D firm) released just last week shows Walz to be quite vulnerable actually:

Walz approval rating:
44% approve (Independents: 31%)
48% disapprove (Independents: 48%)

Voting intention:
Tim Walz (D-incumbent) 44%
Generic Republican 41%
(Walz +3% result)

Change Research (D)
08/28/21 - 08/31/21
N=1945

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kJVx9MGMRyi2O3Gl4Z4OG7ekb_D860bIpZWBsje73Yo/edit#gid=1849982607

Looks like Gazelka might not be such a fool after all

It's too bad neither party can get these Gen. Eric Democrat and Gen. Eric Republican guys to actually run. They always seem to poll the best.

[Non Swing Voter]

The GOP is literally becoming a schtick/clown show of a party.  No serious individuals. 

MTG, Boebert, Cawthorn, Gohmert, Gaetz are all currently elected.

And you have people like Lindell, that moron in MO who is only famous for pointing a gun at BLM protestors, a bunch of wife-beaters, etc. as their new crop.  They are devolving more and more by the day. 

Clearly there are few adults left in the GOP.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1480574725763919875?t=sZeQ4r0Kd2g6Q2jYFe...

[Minnesota Mike]

Qualls is an interesting candidate, he outperformed Trump by 8 points in suburban MN-03.

In other MN-Gov news Michelle Tafoya, retiring NBC NFL sideline reporter, said she will not run for Governor and endorsed Qualls. Tafoya admitted she had thought about a run but decided against it.

BTW if this is going to be the MN-Gov thread can we get it renamed?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe D

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Qualls is an interesting candidate, he outperformed Trump by 8 points in suburban MN-03.

In other MN-Gov news Michelle Tafoya, retiring NBC NFL sideline reporter, said she will not run for Governor and endorsed Qualls. Tafoya admitted she had thought about a run but decided against it.

BTW if this is going to be the MN-Gov thread can we get it renamed?

Five points. Yes the margin was less because Heller also had a lower percentage but that's also a district that would have quite a few anti-Trump conservative voters. Even Jason Lewis outran Trump there.

I still think Gazelka gets the nod, but he's also such a personally weak candidate a primary upset is definitely possible.

[Minnesota Mike]

Five points. Yes the margin was less because Heller also had a lower percentage but that's also a district that would have quite a few anti-Trump conservative voters. Even Jason Lewis outran Trump there.

8 points.

https://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/results/Index?ErsElectionId=136&scenario=StateFedCongressional&DistrictId=558&show=Go

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Five points. Yes the margin was less because Heller also had a lower percentage but that's also a district that would have quite a few anti-Trump conservative voters. Even Jason Lewis outran Trump there.

8 points.

https://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/results/Index?ErsElectionId=136&scenario=StateFedCongressional&DistrictId=558&show=Go

44.32-39.24 = 5.08

[Minnesota Mike]

Five points. Yes the margin was less because Heller also had a lower percentage but that's also a district that would have quite a few anti-Trump conservative voters. Even Jason Lewis outran Trump there.

8 points.

https://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/results/Index?ErsElectionId=136&scenario=StateFedCongressional&DistrictId=558&show=Go

44.32-39.24 = 5.08

Margin of victory, Biden +19, Phillips +11.

[Minnesota Mike]

We are only 4 days away from the Precinct Caucuses in MN on Feb 1. Nothing is binding but this is the first step in electing delegates to the state conventions in May where the 6 declared Republican candidates have all said they will abide by the convention endorsement. Of course they could change their minds or another candidate(s) could enter before the primary but as of right getting the convention endorsement equals getting the nomination. Republicans will have their normal in person caucuses and will have a gubernatorial straw poll. Democrats will conduct their caucuses mainly online and don't currently have any contested statewide races.

BTW the whole process down ballot could be a cluster****. Not sure how they are going to elect people to the BPOU conventions (either county, state senate district or state house district) or deal with precincts split in redistricting.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I looked at Qualls webpage. Pretty conservative but it doesn't say anything about the election being stolen so he might be their best bet.

[Fuzzy Bear]

As I have said, I think the World of Mike Lindell.  Because I do, i hope he does not run for Governor; he will be smeared beyond measure and not for a good cause. 

That being said, Tim Walz is an utter disgrace.  He was the Governor of a state that was beset with violence in its largest cities in 2020 and did nothing to stop the violence.  What was needed was a demonstrative show of force in the form of the National Guard quelling the FIRST rioting.  What happened was that RIOTING destroyed significant parts of Minneapolis, and affected other Minnesota cities as well.

At a time when law-abiding criminal rioters were hamstrung by the COVID-19 restrictions imposed by Minnesota authorities, Walz did nothing meaningful to stop rioting that, amongst other things, was throwing COVID-19 protocols to the wind.  Schools were closed and ordinary people had to practice "social distancing", while the looters and rioters did what they did and Walz did nothing to affirmatively protect the property rights of Minnesotans.  This, despite the fact that the police involved in George Floyd's arrest were promptly charged and the reaction to the incident was consensus outrage.  Walz allowed the violence and acted as if the national response to the whole thing was akin to Mississippi in 1964.  And he did so for one reason; he was afraid to do the right thing and protect the rights of the law-abiding for fear of the reaction of his Leftist base.

There's a lot of blather of "Which side of history will you be on?" today.  Okay, but which side of history will a Governor that refused to defend the rights and safety of law-abiding citizens be on.  That's Tim Walz.  In the longer arc of history, the BLM and Antifa rioters will rightly seen be history as opportunistic criminals and Leftist enemies of the Freedoms of ordinary people.  These are the people Tim Walz sided with, by his actions, if not his rhetoric.  When you fail to defend the property and safety of law abiding citizens of your state, you have failed in your PRIMARY duty.  What, then, is your MORAL claim to leadership?

[neostassenite31]

The 2021 fundraising numbers are in and, well, it's business as usual in Minnesota this cycle, at least financially.

Republican Party of Minnesota:
Total raised in 2021-2022: $1,637,844
Cash on Hand: $132,027

Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party:
Total raised in 2021-2022: $4,188,545
Cash on Hand: $1,430,881 (Ouch)

Looks like the MNGOP is going to get buried under a mountain of DFL cash again this year. The Walz campaign itself also raised closed to $4 million just last year. National Republican PACs and the RGA will really need to step in if they want to prevent whoever the GOP end up nominating against Walz from getting buried likewise.

http://www.opensecrets.org/political-action-committees-pacs/republican-party-of-minnesota/C00001313/summary/2022
https://www.opensecrets.org/political-action-committees-pacs/C00025254/summary/2022

[Minnesota Mike]

Former Hennepin Sheriff Rich Stanek running for Minnesota governor.

https://www.startribune.com/former-hennepin-sheriff-rich-stanek-running-for-minnesota-governor/600141854/

[Roll Roons]

Former Hennepin Sheriff Rich Stanek running for Minnesota governor.

https://www.startribune.com/former-hennepin-sheriff-rich-stanek-running-for-minnesota-governor/600141854/

How did Hennepin have a Republican Sheriff as recently as 2018?

[Minnesota Mike]

Former Hennepin Sheriff Rich Stanek running for Minnesota governor.

https://www.startribune.com/former-hennepin-sheriff-rich-stanek-running-for-minnesota-governor/600141854/

How did Hennepin have a Republican Sheriff as recently as 2018?

It's officially a non partisan office so there was no party label on the ballot, still it is surprising.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Former Hennepin Sheriff Rich Stanek running for Minnesota governor.

https://www.startribune.com/former-hennepin-sheriff-rich-stanek-running-for-minnesota-governor/600141854/

How did Hennepin have a Republican Sheriff as recently as 2018?

It's a non-partisan office but was traditionally held by a Republican due to its nature but in Stanek's case it was mostly the Democrats' fault for not bothering to seriously challenge him. In 2006 the office was open but the DFL endorsed an incredibly weak candidate (I think he was just some random juvenile probation officer or something) at a time when Hennepin County was much less Republican-unfriendly (for example the DFL candidate for Governor only got 50.7% and carries it by about ten points, still a wide victory but nothing like you see today and narrow enough for crossover votes from moderate suburban Democrats and people not aware of the partisan affiliation in a non-partisan race) and Stanek won in a landslide. In 2010 they didn't even bother running someone at all and he ran unopposed, my write-in of "Lizard People" was probably my proudest vote that election (also very proud that write-ins got over 7% in my precinct!) His 2014 opponent was also a joke with no money and no real campaign besides a Facebook page. Part of it was that while he was pretty conservative and unpopular with urban activist types, he managed to avoid very controversial attention grabbing stuff like Joe Arpaio and David Clarke and kept a general positive name recognition amongst less informed voters. I think a significant chunk either didn't know he was a Republican or didn't care because they assumed it was an a non-partisan office anyway and shouldn't matter. Not only was Hutch his first serious opponent, he also was the first with a good wedge issue, he basically ran on "Stanek is Trump's candidate!" and rode DFL coattails.

Anyway I wouldn't bet on him winning the primary because he doesn't have much name recognition outside of Hennepin County. Also he might somewhat ironically be harmed by Hutch's own recent scandal where wrecked a government car driving with a 0.13 BAC and Delta-8 gummies in the glove compartment, it has nothing to do with Stanek but a lot of low info voters won't know the difference and only hear "Hennepin County Sheriff."

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Also

https://twitter.com/javimorillo/status/1488531367734517775

And while it may not pertain to Stanek himself directly, the fact that his son has been charged with soliciting a child for sex and possessing child pornography definitely doesn't help (the child pornography charge was dropped but only because of a plea bargain where he pled guilty to the solicitation charge): https://bringmethenews.com/news/son-of-hennepin-county-sheriff-rich-stanek-pleads-guilty-to-child-solicitation

[Minnesota Mike]

Frustratingly there does not appear to be a single source for GOP Gov straw poll results but from scattered reports on Twitter Scott Jenson appears to be the leader (He even won presumed favorite Paul Gazelka's home county). This is bad news for Republicans because Jenson is a rabid anti vax loon.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/Stowydad/status/1488716448591761409

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/Stowydad/status/1488716448591761409

I completely forgot caucuses were tonight, LOL. Of course the DFL totally had to switch to these lame "contactless" contact things that I filled out days ago instead of just trying to do a caucus with sufficient social distancing measures which wouldn't be that difficult (they don't have particularly high turnout) or at least doing them on Zoom or something.

Not that it's really that important though since there aren't any real competitive partisan races (in the primary), I'm actually more interested in the County Convention because of the endorsements for Hennepin County Attorney and Sheriff (I'm pretty sure Hutch won't be getting the Sheriff endorsement again after his DUI scandal, and it sounds like the other two candidates running are a black conservative "tough on crime" type and a black progressive.)

Also worth noting that these results are just of a straw poll and thus not likely to be very reflective even of the support of delegates going to the district and state conventions.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Frustratingly there does not appear to be a single source for GOP Gov straw poll results but from scattered reports on Twitter Scott Jenson appears to be the leader (He even won presumed favorite Paul Gazelka's home county). This is bad news for Republicans because Jenson is a rabid anti vax loon.

And he's also a doctor, which if anything makes it worse. Although one who is now under investigation by the Minnesota Board of Medicine over many of the things he has said about Covid and the vaccine.

But while Jensen is a bad candidate, Gazelka isn't really any better, a deeply unpopular legislative leader ala Mitch McConnell most known for stonewalling marijuana legalization and sending his own daughter to conversion therapy isn't the sort of person they need either. I'd say probably the least weak candidate running is Benson, who is basically "Generic R State Legislator but female", which isn't particularly strong but at least doesn't have any glaring flaws.

[neostassenite31]

https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/1489013101240406023

Jensen trails Walz by just 3 points with 13% undecided. He outperforms every other GOP candidate as well

[TWTown]

https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/1489013101240406023

Jensen trails Walz by just 3 points with 13% undecided. He outperforms every other GOP candidate as well

Polling at 42-45% heading into a Republican leaning enviroment against a bunch of no-names does not exactly instill as much confidence. Especially when this is not only a swing towards Jensen but a substantial downtrend for Walz since their last poll just over a month ago (48 to 43). Still think Walz wins this but my attention has been piqued.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

BRTD or somebody from Minnesota, what are the GOP candidate's positions on Chauvin?