MN 2022 Gov Race Megathread

[Minnesota Mike]

Just found this thread, thanks for the laughs.

I will just ignore the Pillow guy and just give my way to early thoughts on the race in general. Minnesota is turning in to a poor mans Illinois with Hennepin and Ramsey counties combined equaling Cook county with the suburbs tilting blue. If Republicans can't find a way to knock Walz down into the low 60's in Hennepin/Ramsey then it makes no difference what a Republican does outstate as there just are not enough available votes outside the Twin Cities metro.  For example Trump ran very strong in rural Minnesota, carrying 74 of the 87 counties statewide by a margin of 314,000 votes in those counties. Biden netted 327,000 from Hennepin county alone and I think Walz runs better than Biden in rural MN since that is home turf.

As I do in almost every MN thread I will leave you with a couple facts. No Republican has won statewide since T-Paw in 2006 and no Republican has gotten 50%+ of the vote statewide since Liberal Republican Arne Carlson in  1994.

[Minnesota Mike]

Haven’t seen anyone else talking about it, but the state GOP is in shambles due to sexual assault scandals.

It is beyond ugly. A major republican donor, Anton Lazzaro, was arrested for 6 counts of sex trafficking. Lazzaro also happens to be good friends with GOP chair Jennifer Carnahan, he attended her wedding to MN-01 congressman Jim Hagedorn and cohosted a podcast with her. Carnahan has also been accused of ignoring sexual harassment complaints, belittling and demeaning subordinates(some is on audio) especially young women, and of financial improprieties (She personally gets 10% of all money donated to the MN GOP). Oh and to top it off there audio floating around the internet of a drunken Carnahan at the RNC winter meetings (on Jan 6 no less) saying  that her husband, who has kidney cancer, will be dead in two years so oh well.

Oh and just to bring this back to Mike Lindell, Carnahan all but endorsed him last year.

[Minnesota Mike]

Haven’t seen anyone else talking about it, but the state GOP is in shambles due to sexual assault scandals.

It is beyond ugly. A major republican donor, Anton Lazzaro, was arrested for 6 counts of sex trafficking. Lazzaro also happens to be good friends with GOP chair Jennifer Carnahan, he attended her wedding to MN-01 congressman Jim Hagedorn and cohosted a podcast with her. Carnahan has also been accused of ignoring sexual harassment complaints, belittling and demeaning subordinates(some is on audio) especially young women, and of financial improprieties (She personally gets 10% of all money donated to the MN GOP). Oh and to top it off there audio floating around the internet of a drunken Carnahan at the RNC winter meetings (on Jan 6 no less) saying  that her husband, who has kidney cancer, will be dead in two years so oh well.

Oh and just to bring this back to Mike Lindell, Carnahan all but endorsed him last year.

Will Hagedorn's obvious close ties here hurt his chances of re-election?

Maybe but the bigger question is his health. Hagedorn has stage 4 kidney cancer which only has a 5 year survival rate of 8%. His wife said on a recorded drunken phone call he would be dead in two years.  I wish him the best but the odds appear to be against him.

[Minnesota Mike]

My guess is that Lindell would lose by ~10-15%, which seems to be the "generic" winning margin for an incumbent Democrat in Minnesota. A result that looks something like 53% Walz-43% Lindell-4% Other would be plausible.

We are not that crazy here in the land of 10,000 lakes. Lindell would lose by at least the 24 points Amy Klobuchar won by last time she ran. Lindell would also be extremely unlikely to win a Republican primary, even Minnesota Republicans are not crazy enough to nominate someone who is certifiably nuts.

[Minnesota Mike]

My guess is that Lindell would lose by ~10-15%, which seems to be the "generic" winning margin for an incumbent Democrat in Minnesota. A result that looks something like 53% Walz-43% Lindell-4% Other would be plausible.

We are not that crazy here in the land of 10,000 lakes. Lindell would lose by at least the 24 points Amy Klobuchar won by last time she ran. Lindell would also be extremely unlikely to win a Republican primary, even Minnesota Republicans are not crazy enough to nominate someone who is certifiably nuts.

Klobuchar has a personal vote, there's a deep hatred for Walz in much of outstate. He's still overall popular and would easily crush Lindell, but not pull of those margins.

Also think Lindell would win the primary if he ran, which he won't now being deplatformed and suffering all these lawsuits. It's not like Scott Jensen is a particularly great candidate who would appeal to swing voters either.

Paul Gazelka is odds on favorite to be the Republican nominee. Won't be much of a challenge for Walz but will do better than nuts like Lindell and Jensen.

[Minnesota Mike]

Is he running? Seems odd to give up his State Senate seat and leadership role for such a longshot. Unless he doesn't want to deal with the State Senate anymore.

As of a couple days ago he said on WCCO he was leaning towards running and from what I have heard (just internet gossip) he is almost certain to run.

[Minnesota Mike]

With Benson in and Gazelka all but in the next shoe to drop is what does Sen Carla Nelson do. Nelson would be the most moderate Republican  running (not saying much) and would probably be the toughest GE opponent for Walz but I have a tough time seeing her winning a Republican primary.

[Minnesota Mike]

According to Wikipedia, "My Pillow guy" is a declined candidate? Why is the dude discussed?

Poorly titled thread has turned into a general MN Governor thread.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/1435396582011252741

[Minnesota Mike]

Latest poll from Change Research (D firm) released just last week shows Walz to be quite vulnerable actually:

Walz approval rating:
44% approve (Independents: 31%)
48% disapprove (Independents: 48%)

Voting intention:
Tim Walz (D-incumbent) 44%
Generic Republican 41%
(Walz +3% result)

Change Research (D)
08/28/21 - 08/31/21
N=1945

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kJVx9MGMRyi2O3Gl4Z4OG7ekb_D860bIpZWBsje73Yo/edit#gid=1849982607

Looks like Gazelka might not be such a fool after all

Polls using a generic Rep/Dem are pretty much useless.  The fact Republican Jesus still trails is not a good sign for Republicans.

[Minnesota Mike]

Qualls is an interesting candidate, he outperformed Trump by 8 points in suburban MN-03.

In other MN-Gov news Michelle Tafoya, retiring NBC NFL sideline reporter, said she will not run for Governor and endorsed Qualls. Tafoya admitted she had thought about a run but decided against it.

BTW if this is going to be the MN-Gov thread can we get it renamed?

[Minnesota Mike]

Five points. Yes the margin was less because Heller also had a lower percentage but that's also a district that would have quite a few anti-Trump conservative voters. Even Jason Lewis outran Trump there.

8 points.

https://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/results/Index?ErsElectionId=136&scenario=StateFedCongressional&DistrictId=558&show=Go

[Minnesota Mike]

Five points. Yes the margin was less because Heller also had a lower percentage but that's also a district that would have quite a few anti-Trump conservative voters. Even Jason Lewis outran Trump there.

8 points.

https://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/results/Index?ErsElectionId=136&scenario=StateFedCongressional&DistrictId=558&show=Go

44.32-39.24 = 5.08

Margin of victory, Biden +19, Phillips +11.

[Minnesota Mike]

We are only 4 days away from the Precinct Caucuses in MN on Feb 1. Nothing is binding but this is the first step in electing delegates to the state conventions in May where the 6 declared Republican candidates have all said they will abide by the convention endorsement. Of course they could change their minds or another candidate(s) could enter before the primary but as of right getting the convention endorsement equals getting the nomination. Republicans will have their normal in person caucuses and will have a gubernatorial straw poll. Democrats will conduct their caucuses mainly online and don't currently have any contested statewide races.

BTW the whole process down ballot could be a cluster****. Not sure how they are going to elect people to the BPOU conventions (either county, state senate district or state house district) or deal with precincts split in redistricting.

[Minnesota Mike]

Former Hennepin Sheriff Rich Stanek running for Minnesota governor.

https://www.startribune.com/former-hennepin-sheriff-rich-stanek-running-for-minnesota-governor/600141854/

[Minnesota Mike]

Former Hennepin Sheriff Rich Stanek running for Minnesota governor.

https://www.startribune.com/former-hennepin-sheriff-rich-stanek-running-for-minnesota-governor/600141854/

How did Hennepin have a Republican Sheriff as recently as 2018?

It's officially a non partisan office so there was no party label on the ballot, still it is surprising.

[Minnesota Mike]

Frustratingly there does not appear to be a single source for GOP Gov straw poll results but from scattered reports on Twitter Scott Jenson appears to be the leader (He even won presumed favorite Paul Gazelka's home county). This is bad news for Republicans because Jenson is a rabid anti vax loon.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/Stowydad/status/1488716448591761409

[Minnesota Mike]

I wish the OP or the mods would rename this thread. We need a MN Gov megathread but with an out of date name like it has I think a lot of people just skip it.

[Minnesota Mike]

I wish the OP or the mods would rename this thread. We need a MN Gov megathread but with an out of date name like it has I think a lot of people just skip it.

Thanks mods.

[Minnesota Mike]

And we have a 3rd party governor candidate, Corey Hepola a former TV reporter/ radio host.

https://twitter.com/CoryHepola/status/1498785138821500928

There is no way he can win but this being Minnesota he may draw double digits. Not sure what, if anything, he stands for. Right now he is just spouting platitudes about coming together.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/1499880057690599431

[Minnesota Mike]

MN GOP, giving the FL Dems a run for their money

He's actually not the frontrunner if you believe PredictIt, that's Paul Gazelka (although I think Gazelka is overvalued), but considering that Gazelka sent his own daughter to conversion therapy and is most known as the former State Senate Majority Leader bottling up popular legislation like marijuana legalization and would be like running Mitch McConnell for President... he's not really better. And Gazelka is actually the one running a more moderate campaign, considering that he admitted Biden fairly won the election and endorsed getting the Covid vaccine.

I think Gazelka is the bigger name and the establishment favorite but I think Jenson is probably the favorite now. He easily won the straw poll and I think he appeals more to the far right activists who tend to dominate the convention.

[Minnesota Mike]

Another DFL senator retires, from the Moorhead region, Trump +3 seat, should move it from tossup to atleast Lean R.

Yep. I believe this is actually the only Trump/Dem held Senate seat on the new map.

This brings up to 20 Senate retirements (including running for another office), 10D, 8R, 2 R caucusing I's. That's out of 67 seats so quit the turnover.

[Minnesota Mike]

For those interested in MN legislative races here is a good list of who is running.

https://www.minnpost.com/elections/2022/04/whos-running-for-the-minnesota-legislature-in-2022/