MN 2022 Gov Race Megathread

[Hope For A New Era]

Actually now that I think about it, Mike Lindell could very likely win assuming 2022 is a red wave year.

Remember this is the same state that elected a professional wrestler as their governor from 1999-2003 (Jesse Ventura) and a Saturday Night Live comedian as one of their senators from 2009-2018 (Al Franken), so Mike Lindell as governor wouldn't really be anything new for Minnesota. They seem to like oddball candidates.

Though on the other hand, Ventura was an independent while Franken was a democrat, so that could spell trouble for Lindell? Especially if he faces tons of attacks for his connection to Trump (who already endorsed Lindell's potential bid for governor).

He is ridiculously easy to tie to Trump, which is why he will lose. MSP would not vote for him.

[neostassenite31]

Any Republican running for statewide office in MN is always confronted with a major dilemma.

Trump easily outperforms every other Republican in 40% of the state by double digits (Greater Minnesota). Even Jason Lewis, who was on the same ballot as Trump this year, could not match Trump's margins in most of Greater Minnesota. Running away from Trump would seem like a very bad idea in regards to winning over these voters.

However, Trump is also deeply unpopular in the seven county Twin Cities area, so much so that he did significantly worse than Jason Lewis, who some people would argue lost the senate race because he attached himself to Trump so closely that it caused him to do worse in the metro area than a more generic or downballot Republican candidate. Going full on Trumpster is clearly not going to work well in this part of the state.

Joe Biden and his performance as president is going to be the ultimate moderating factor in the suburbs that will decide the election, even if the GOP gubernatorial candidate runs on a platform that consists exclusively of a resume detailing their career as a senior MAGA cultist and conspiracy theorist, since whatever negative effects it will have in the metro will be mostly offset by a slightly smaller advantage in Greater MN, with the remaining excess being at the mercy of even slight suburban swings.  

[Real Texan Politics]

Actually now that I think about it, Mike Lindell could very likely win assuming 2022 is a red wave year.

Remember this is the same state that elected a professional wrestler as their governor from 1999-2003 (Jesse Ventura) and a Saturday Night Live comedian as one of their senators from 2009-2018 (Al Franken), so Mike Lindell as governor wouldn't really be anything new for Minnesota. They seem to like oddball candidates.

Though on the other hand, Ventura was an independent while Franken was a democrat, so that could spell trouble for Lindell? Especially if he faces tons of attacks for his connection to Trump (who already endorsed Lindell's potential bid for governor).

Remember this is also the state where a Republican hasn’t won statewide in 14 years.

That is a good point, though that doesn't mean they'll never elect one again. They're still a mild battleground after all, state and federal.

History seems to show that oddball candidates are easy to win elections in Minnesota, but what if that oddball is a republican with connections to Donald Trump in a state that voted for his opponent by 1.5% in 2016 and 7.1% in 2020?

It's hard to tell right now. Right now I'd rate it as lean/likely D if the GOP nominee isn't Lindell, and tossup to tilt/lean D if it is. And even if Lindell pulls off a shocking victory, it would still be a nailbiter of a margin.

I guess to average it all out right now, I would still rate the 2022 governor race as lean D, but that can easily change as we get closer to the election (and depending on how popular or unpopular Joe Biden is as president).

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Actually now that I think about it, Mike Lindell could very likely win assuming 2022 is a red wave year.

Remember this is the same state that elected a professional wrestler as their governor from 1999-2003 (Jesse Ventura) and a Saturday Night Live comedian as one of their senators from 2009-2018 (Al Franken), so Mike Lindell as governor wouldn't really be anything new for Minnesota. They seem to like oddball candidates.

Though on the other hand, Ventura was an independent while Franken was a democrat, so that could spell trouble for Lindell? Especially if he faces tons of attacks for his connection to Trump (who already endorsed Lindell's potential bid for governor).

Remember this is also the state where a Republican hasn’t won statewide in 14 years.

That is a good point, though that doesn't mean they'll never elect one again. They're still a mild battleground after all, state and federal.

History seems to show that oddball candidates are easy to win elections in Minnesota, but what if that oddball is a republican with connections to Donald Trump in a state that voted for his opponent by 1.5% in 2016 and 7.1% in 2020?

It's hard to tell right now. Right now I'd rate it as lean/likely D if the GOP nominee isn't Lindell, and tossup to tilt/lean D if it is. And even if Lindell pulls off a shocking victory, it would still be a nailbiter of a margin.

I guess to average it all out right now, I would still rate the 2022 governor race as lean D, but that can easily change as we get closer to the election (and depending on how popular or unpopular Joe Biden is as president).

Lindell has zero crossover appeal, he's a clown and a cultural figure but one exclusively to conservatives rather one of broad popularity. The race is  Likley D if he runs given that he pretty much destroys any chance of republicans winning back the MSP area.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The whole "But Jesse Ventura!" thing about Minnesota is so badly misunderstood.

Ventura won (22 years ago now), because he was the mayor of a fairly large Minneapolis suburb who ran a serious campaign with a suburban-appealing platform (basically bourgeois tax relief.) He was elected almost entirely on the basis of his political career and platform. It was not a joke campaign.

Al Franken defeated a deeply unpopular incumbent by a margin so small he wasn't sworn in for six months the same election Obama easily carried Minnesota by double digits. Doesn't sound like he ran particularly strong to me.

Lindell is also on the record as openly calling for state legislators to override Biden's victory and send their own electoral slates, and also claims that Trump legitimately won. Now is that a candidate who sounds like he has special appeal for a state Biden won by 7 points?

[Tartarus Sauce]

Running Jeff Johnson for a third time would be less of a mistake for the Minnesota GOP than nominating Lindell.

[brucejoel99]

Running Jeff Johnson for a third time would be less of a mistake for the Minnesota GOP than nominating Lindell.

[Suburbia]

Actually now that I think about it, Mike Lindell could very likely win assuming 2022 is a red wave year.

Remember this is the same state that elected a professional wrestler as their governor from 1999-2003 (Jesse Ventura) and a Saturday Night Live comedian as one of their senators from 2009-2018 (Al Franken), so Mike Lindell as governor wouldn't really be anything new for Minnesota. They seem to like oddball candidates.

Though on the other hand, Ventura was an independent while Franken was a democrat, so that could spell trouble for Lindell? Especially if he faces tons of attacks for his connection to Trump (who already endorsed Lindell's potential bid for governor).

Remember this is also the state where a Republican hasn’t won statewide in 14 years.

So? The MNGOP is set to break the streak. The cards are aligned for them in 2022.

If the cops are not convicted in Floyd's murder, there will be riots and Ellison and Walz will be vulnerable.

This is Lean D, for now.

[Senator Incitatus]

Probably the strongest nominee available. Remains Lean D, closer to Likely, if he runs.

Not sure how well Birk will play given the Wardlow flop.

[Alcibiades]

Actually now that I think about it, Mike Lindell could very likely win assuming 2022 is a red wave year.

Remember this is the same state that elected a professional wrestler as their governor from 1999-2003 (Jesse Ventura) and a Saturday Night Live comedian as one of their senators from 2009-2018 (Al Franken), so Mike Lindell as governor wouldn't really be anything new for Minnesota. They seem to like oddball candidates.

Though on the other hand, Ventura was an independent while Franken was a democrat, so that could spell trouble for Lindell? Especially if he faces tons of attacks for his connection to Trump (who already endorsed Lindell's potential bid for governor).

Remember this is also the state where a Republican hasn’t won statewide in 14 years.

So? The MNGOP is set to break the streak. The cards are aligned for them in 2022.

If the cops are not convicted in Floyd's murder, there will be riots and Ellison and Walz will be vulnerable.

This is Lean D, for now.

The point is that the MNGOP have a structural disadvantage in the state, and Mike Lindell is not the man to fix that.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Nothing to see Walz wins

[LiberalDem19]

Actually now that I think about it, Mike Lindell could very likely win assuming 2022 is a red wave year.

Remember this is the same state that elected a professional wrestler as their governor from 1999-2003 (Jesse Ventura) and a Saturday Night Live comedian as one of their senators from 2009-2018 (Al Franken), so Mike Lindell as governor wouldn't really be anything new for Minnesota. They seem to like oddball candidates.

Though on the other hand, Ventura was an independent while Franken was a democrat, so that could spell trouble for Lindell? Especially if he faces tons of attacks for his connection to Trump (who already endorsed Lindell's potential bid for governor).

Remember this is also the state where a Republican hasn’t won statewide in 14 years.

So? The MNGOP is set to break the streak. The cards are aligned for them in 2022.

If the cops are not convicted in Floyd's murder, there will be riots and Ellison and Walz will be vulnerable.

This is Lean D, for now.

I agree, but this is also the MNGOP so they probably blow it anyways

[Chips]

He would likely have the best chance out of any Republican to pick this up in 2022 but it would remain a Lean D race even then. Still, It wouldn't completely blow my mind to see Lindell win.

[Real Texan Politics]

He would likely have the best chance out of any Republican to pick this up in 2022 but it would remain a Lean D race even then. Still, It wouldn't completely blow my mind to see Lindell win.

My thoughts exactly.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

He would likely have the best chance out of any Republican to pick this up in 2022 but it would remain a Lean D race even then. Still, It wouldn't completely blow my mind to see Lindell win.

Closer to Safe D than Lean D, somebody calling for trump to deploy troops to enforce Martial Law isn't winning a state that voted for Biden by 7 points, no amount of #trends in the iron belt will help with that.

[Real Texan Politics]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/15/mike-lindell-mypillow-trump-white-house-martial-law

Aaaannnnnddddd he’s done.

My prediction now moves from lean D to likely D, and that’s assuming he survives the primaries.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/15/mike-lindell-mypillow-trump-white-house-martial-law

Aaaannnnnddddd he’s done.

My prediction now moves from lean D to likely D, and that’s assuming he survives the primaries.

Knowing the Republican party at this point, wouldn't be surprised if this helps him there.

[neostassenite31]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/15/mike-lindell-mypillow-trump-white-house-martial-law

Aaaannnnnddddd he’s done.

My prediction now moves from lean D to likely D, and that’s assuming he survives the primaries.

Knowing the Republican party at this point, wouldn't be surprised if this helps him there.

The Democratic attack ads in the general are going to be brutal.

[Not Me, Us]

I don't know why anyone ever thought Lindell would be a good candidate. MN is a structurally Democratic state. To win it, Republicans have to max out Greater Minnesota, minimize losses in the suburbs, and pray for low turnout in the Twin Cities. That's an extremely difficult task, and a hardcore Trumpist like Lindell was never a candidate who could do that. Why would you run a candidate emulating someone who lost the state by 7 points?

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/15/mike-lindell-mypillow-trump-white-house-martial-law

Aaaannnnnddddd he’s done.

My prediction now moves from lean D to likely D, and that’s assuming he survives the primaries.

Knowing the Republican party at this point, wouldn't be surprised if this helps him there.

The Democratic attack ads in the general are going to be brutal.

Oh no definitely, I meant the primary

[Chips]

Yeah, Likely D now. I don't know if Lindell is still the best candidate for the GOP or not.

[Chips]

I don't know why anyone ever thought Lindell would be a good candidate. MN is a structurally Democratic state. To win it, Republicans have to max out Greater Minnesota, minimize losses in the suburbs, and pray for low turnout in the Twin Cities. That's an extremely difficult task, and a hardcore Trumpist like Lindell was never a candidate who could do that. Why would you run a candidate emulating someone who lost the state by 7 points?

Yeah. I think this state will continue to be very frustrating for the GOP. I'd say they'll finally win a statewide race in 2026 and possibly win the state for the presidential election in either 2028 or 2032.

[Not Me, Us]

I don't know why anyone ever thought Lindell would be a good candidate. MN is a structurally Democratic state. To win it, Republicans have to max out Greater Minnesota, minimize losses in the suburbs, and pray for low turnout in the Twin Cities. That's an extremely difficult task, and a hardcore Trumpist like Lindell was never a candidate who could do that. Why would you run a candidate emulating someone who lost the state by 7 points?

Yeah. I think this state will continue to be very frustrating for the GOP. I'd say they'll finally win a statewide race in 2026 and possibly win the state for the presidential election in either 2028 or 2032.

2026 really depends on 2024, I think. If the Democrat wins, I think the GOP will probably pick up the Governorship, but if it's a Republican midterm, I'd be really surprised if Democrats didn't win. It's dependent on the nominees, though. I do agree that MN will vote Republican at the presidential level within the decade, especially once rural MN starts voting GOP at the levels of other rural areas in states like PA.

[GALeftist]

I know I'm going against the grain here, but in a neutral year Omar is favored. Lindell isn't some moderate FF, he's a quack pillow salesman who thinks Trump was appointed by God and keeps promoting a bogus COVID cure. He is cuckoo for cocoa puffs, and I fail to see how y'all are so convinced that candidate quality would lose Omar a seat in a clearly D leaning state when A. 2020 should have demonstrated that candidate quality means less every day and B. it's not even 100% clear Lindell is substantially more palatable than Omar.

Tim Walz will easily vanquish this oafish buffoon.

I will now accept my accolades.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

I think the world of Mike Lindell.  He's a good and decent man.  I would hope he would not run for Governor.  He would be the most unfairly attacked candidate in history if he ran.

Tim Walz is an incompetent who refused to protect the citizens of Minneapolis from mobs when their local officials would not.  Unfortunately, I cannot see Mike Lindell defeating Walz at the polls.