MN 2022 Gov Race Megathread

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Would love to see BRTD and Minnesota Mike weigh in on this

A guy who said that he's not worried about coronavirus at Trump rallies because he takes a herbal supplement that supposedly prevents infection isn't going to break a 16-year losing streak.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The whole "But Jesse Ventura!" thing about Minnesota is so badly misunderstood.

Ventura won (22 years ago now), because he was the mayor of a fairly large Minneapolis suburb who ran a serious campaign with a suburban-appealing platform (basically bourgeois tax relief.) He was elected almost entirely on the basis of his political career and platform. It was not a joke campaign.

Al Franken defeated a deeply unpopular incumbent by a margin so small he wasn't sworn in for six months the same election Obama easily carried Minnesota by double digits. Doesn't sound like he ran particularly strong to me.

Lindell is also on the record as openly calling for state legislators to override Biden's victory and send their own electoral slates, and also claims that Trump legitimately won. Now is that a candidate who sounds like he has special appeal for a state Biden won by 7 points?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Eh he could just announce his running mate early and use his running mate's account as a de facto campaign one.

Of course that would likely get that account suspended too.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

He just had his mic muted at CPAC: https://blogps.com/mypillow-ceo-mike-lindell-has-mic-muted-at-cpac-for-spouting-vaccine-and-election-conspiracies

This is why I'm convinced he won't be the nominee, too deplatformed. And if he is there's going to be a bloodbath in the suburbs.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

My guess is that Lindell would lose by ~10-15%, which seems to be the "generic" winning margin for an incumbent Democrat in Minnesota. A result that looks something like 53% Walz-43% Lindell-4% Other would be plausible.

We are not that crazy here in the land of 10,000 lakes. Lindell would lose by at least the 24 points Amy Klobuchar won by last time she ran. Lindell would also be extremely unlikely to win a Republican primary, even Minnesota Republicans are not crazy enough to nominate someone who is certifiably nuts.

Klobuchar has a personal vote, there's a deep hatred for Walz in much of outstate. He's still overall popular and would easily crush Lindell, but not pull of those margins.

Also think Lindell would win the primary if he ran, which he won't now being deplatformed and suffering all these lawsuits. It's not like Scott Jensen is a particularly great candidate who would appeal to swing voters either.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

My guess is that Lindell would lose by ~10-15%, which seems to be the "generic" winning margin for an incumbent Democrat in Minnesota. A result that looks something like 53% Walz-43% Lindell-4% Other would be plausible.

We are not that crazy here in the land of 10,000 lakes. Lindell would lose by at least the 24 points Amy Klobuchar won by last time she ran. Lindell would also be extremely unlikely to win a Republican primary, even Minnesota Republicans are not crazy enough to nominate someone who is certifiably nuts.

Klobuchar has a personal vote, there's a deep hatred for Walz in much of outstate. He's still overall popular and would easily crush Lindell, but not pull of those margins.

Also think Lindell would win the primary if he ran, which he won't now being deplatformed and suffering all these lawsuits. It's not like Scott Jensen is a particularly great candidate who would appeal to swing voters either.

Paul Gazelka is odds on favorite to be the Republican nominee. Won't be much of a challenge for Walz but will do better than nuts like Lindell and Jensen.

Is he running? Seems odd to give up his State Senate seat and leadership role for such a longshot. Unless he doesn't want to deal with the State Senate anymore.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/toreyvanoot/status/1433071670420516864

She's a more bland and generic R type than Lindell or Scott Jensen but that's not really the sort of candidate the MNGOP needs either, it also describes Jeff Johnson and Karin Housley.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

My guess is that Lindell would lose by ~10-15%, which seems to be the "generic" winning margin for an incumbent Democrat in Minnesota. A result that looks something like 53% Walz-43% Lindell-4% Other would be plausible.

We are not that crazy here in the land of 10,000 lakes. Lindell would lose by at least the 24 points Amy Klobuchar won by last time she ran. Lindell would also be extremely unlikely to win a Republican primary, even Minnesota Republicans are not crazy enough to nominate someone who is certifiably nuts.

Klobuchar has a personal vote, there's a deep hatred for Walz in much of outstate. He's still overall popular and would easily crush Lindell, but not pull of those margins.

Also think Lindell would win the primary if he ran, which he won't now being deplatformed and suffering all these lawsuits. It's not like Scott Jensen is a particularly great candidate who would appeal to swing voters either.

Paul Gazelka is odds on favorite to be the Republican nominee. Won't be much of a challenge for Walz but will do better than nuts like Lindell and Jensen.

Is he running? Seems odd to give up his State Senate seat and leadership role for such a longshot. Unless he doesn't want to deal with the State Senate anymore.

It makes no sense for him to quit a relatively safe job for this gubernatorial bid, unless he did some private polling that show him to be at least relatively competitive with Walz. As his many deals with Walz and Hortman clearly show, Gazelka isn't reckless

Well he actually just announced he's stepping down from his State Senate leadership role a few days ago. So whether he runs or not the most likely explanation is that he's tired of that role.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Qualls is an interesting candidate, he outperformed Trump by 8 points in suburban MN-03.

In other MN-Gov news Michelle Tafoya, retiring NBC NFL sideline reporter, said she will not run for Governor and endorsed Qualls. Tafoya admitted she had thought about a run but decided against it.

BTW if this is going to be the MN-Gov thread can we get it renamed?

Five points. Yes the margin was less because Heller also had a lower percentage but that's also a district that would have quite a few anti-Trump conservative voters. Even Jason Lewis outran Trump there.

I still think Gazelka gets the nod, but he's also such a personally weak candidate a primary upset is definitely possible.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Five points. Yes the margin was less because Heller also had a lower percentage but that's also a district that would have quite a few anti-Trump conservative voters. Even Jason Lewis outran Trump there.

8 points.

https://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/results/Index?ErsElectionId=136&scenario=StateFedCongressional&DistrictId=558&show=Go

44.32-39.24 = 5.08

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Former Hennepin Sheriff Rich Stanek running for Minnesota governor.

https://www.startribune.com/former-hennepin-sheriff-rich-stanek-running-for-minnesota-governor/600141854/

How did Hennepin have a Republican Sheriff as recently as 2018?

It's a non-partisan office but was traditionally held by a Republican due to its nature but in Stanek's case it was mostly the Democrats' fault for not bothering to seriously challenge him. In 2006 the office was open but the DFL endorsed an incredibly weak candidate (I think he was just some random juvenile probation officer or something) at a time when Hennepin County was much less Republican-unfriendly (for example the DFL candidate for Governor only got 50.7% and carries it by about ten points, still a wide victory but nothing like you see today and narrow enough for crossover votes from moderate suburban Democrats and people not aware of the partisan affiliation in a non-partisan race) and Stanek won in a landslide. In 2010 they didn't even bother running someone at all and he ran unopposed, my write-in of "Lizard People" was probably my proudest vote that election (also very proud that write-ins got over 7% in my precinct!) His 2014 opponent was also a joke with no money and no real campaign besides a Facebook page. Part of it was that while he was pretty conservative and unpopular with urban activist types, he managed to avoid very controversial attention grabbing stuff like Joe Arpaio and David Clarke and kept a general positive name recognition amongst less informed voters. I think a significant chunk either didn't know he was a Republican or didn't care because they assumed it was an a non-partisan office anyway and shouldn't matter. Not only was Hutch his first serious opponent, he also was the first with a good wedge issue, he basically ran on "Stanek is Trump's candidate!" and rode DFL coattails.

Anyway I wouldn't bet on him winning the primary because he doesn't have much name recognition outside of Hennepin County. Also he might somewhat ironically be harmed by Hutch's own recent scandal where wrecked a government car driving with a 0.13 BAC and Delta-8 gummies in the glove compartment, it has nothing to do with Stanek but a lot of low info voters won't know the difference and only hear "Hennepin County Sheriff."

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Also

https://twitter.com/javimorillo/status/1488531367734517775

And while it may not pertain to Stanek himself directly, the fact that his son has been charged with soliciting a child for sex and possessing child pornography definitely doesn't help (the child pornography charge was dropped but only because of a plea bargain where he pled guilty to the solicitation charge): https://bringmethenews.com/news/son-of-hennepin-county-sheriff-rich-stanek-pleads-guilty-to-child-solicitation

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/Stowydad/status/1488716448591761409

I completely forgot caucuses were tonight, LOL. Of course the DFL totally had to switch to these lame "contactless" contact things that I filled out days ago instead of just trying to do a caucus with sufficient social distancing measures which wouldn't be that difficult (they don't have particularly high turnout) or at least doing them on Zoom or something.

Not that it's really that important though since there aren't any real competitive partisan races (in the primary), I'm actually more interested in the County Convention because of the endorsements for Hennepin County Attorney and Sheriff (I'm pretty sure Hutch won't be getting the Sheriff endorsement again after his DUI scandal, and it sounds like the other two candidates running are a black conservative "tough on crime" type and a black progressive.)

Also worth noting that these results are just of a straw poll and thus not likely to be very reflective even of the support of delegates going to the district and state conventions.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Frustratingly there does not appear to be a single source for GOP Gov straw poll results but from scattered reports on Twitter Scott Jenson appears to be the leader (He even won presumed favorite Paul Gazelka's home county). This is bad news for Republicans because Jenson is a rabid anti vax loon.

And he's also a doctor, which if anything makes it worse. Although one who is now under investigation by the Minnesota Board of Medicine over many of the things he has said about Covid and the vaccine.

But while Jensen is a bad candidate, Gazelka isn't really any better, a deeply unpopular legislative leader ala Mitch McConnell most known for stonewalling marijuana legalization and sending his own daughter to conversion therapy isn't the sort of person they need either. I'd say probably the least weak candidate running is Benson, who is basically "Generic R State Legislator but female", which isn't particularly strong but at least doesn't have any glaring flaws.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

BRTD or somebody from Minnesota, what are the GOP candidate's positions on Chauvin?

I've never heard any of them comment on the case other than vague "the trial was held fairly and the jury made their decision" type remarks.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And we have a 3rd party governor candidate, Corey Hepola a former TV reporter/ radio host.

https://twitter.com/CoryHepola/status/1498785138821500928

There is no way he can win but this being Minnesota he may draw double digits. Not sure what, if anything, he stands for. Right now he is just spouting platitudes about coming together.

That's why he ain't getting double digits. He'll also have no money.

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https://twitter.com/FOX9/status/1499848541598015494

Doubling down on anti-vax stance and praising Putin. Typical Republican.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

MN GOP, giving the FL Dems a run for their money

He's actually not the frontrunner if you believe PredictIt, that's Paul Gazelka (although I think Gazelka is overvalued), but considering that Gazelka sent his own daughter to conversion therapy and is most known as the former State Senate Majority Leader bottling up popular legislation like marijuana legalization and would be like running Mitch McConnell for President... he's not really better. And Gazelka is actually the one running a more moderate campaign, considering that he admitted Biden fairly won the election and endorsed getting the Covid vaccine.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

MN GOP, giving the FL Dems a run for their money

He's actually not the frontrunner if you believe PredictIt, that's Paul Gazelka (although I think Gazelka is overvalued), but considering that Gazelka sent his own daughter to conversion therapy and is most known as the former State Senate Majority Leader bottling up popular legislation like marijuana legalization and would be like running Mitch McConnell for President... he's not really better. And Gazelka is actually the one running a more moderate campaign, considering that he admitted Biden fairly won the election and endorsed getting the Covid vaccine.

I think Gazelka is the bigger name and the establishment favorite but I think Jenson is probably the favorite now. He easily won the straw poll and I think he appeals more to the far right activists who tend to dominate the convention.

Straw polls in the past have been kind of meaningless but yeah, Jensen is probably a good buy on PredictIt.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/StarTribune/status/1504479907836882951

This is a pretty great win-win move by Walz. (For the record he's calling for $500 checks to single filers and $1000 to married couples.) It'd require legislative approval, but that means either the Republicans in the Senate oppose it and give him yet another wedge issue (in addition to already existing ones like marijuana legalization) or they pass it and give him a victory and popular policy in the run-up to the election.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/StarTribune/status/1504479907836882951
This is a pretty great win-win move by Walz. (For the record he's calling for $500 checks to single filers and $1000 to married couples.) It'd require legislative approval, but that means either the Republicans in the Senate oppose it and give him yet another wedge issue (in addition to already existing ones like marijuana legalization) or they pass it and give him a victory and popular policy in the run-up to the election.

As an outsider, Waltz's optics seem pretty good compared to a lot of other govs on both sides facing tough re-elections. He comes across as someone trying to do good for his people and less into the political football

Walz is really good at the "every man" sort of image, mostly because in his case it's actually true, before he entered politics he was a high school geography teacher and football coach in southern Minnesota. It's no accident that he never faced any serious opposition while in Congress from a swing district that on paper was probably Tilt R (aside from his surprise almost defeat in 2016, but even that was impressive in that he outran Hillary more than almost any other Democrat in the country aside from literally unopposed ones.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/StarTribune/status/1504479907836882951
This is a pretty great win-win move by Walz. (For the record he's calling for $500 checks to single filers and $1000 to married couples.) It'd require legislative approval, but that means either the Republicans in the Senate oppose it and give him yet another wedge issue (in addition to already existing ones like marijuana legalization) or they pass it and give him a victory and popular policy in the run-up to the election.

As an outsider, Waltz's optics seem pretty good compared to a lot of other govs on both sides facing tough re-elections. He comes across as someone trying to do good for his people and less into the political football

Walz is really good at the "every man" sort of image, mostly because in his case it's actually true, before he entered politics he was a high school geography teacher and football coach in southern Minnesota. It's no accident that he never faced any serious opposition while in Congress from a swing district that on paper was probably Tilt R (aside from his surprise almost defeat in 2016, but even that was impressive in that he outran Hillary more than almost any other Democrat in the country aside from literally unopposed ones.)

What rating would you give the race, as of right now? Walz seems to be favored to me, but he could be held to an underwhelming margin because of the political environment.

Likely D. Even an "underwhelming margin" is still enough for Walz to win, but I think his likely opponents have a ceiling of ~46%, and that former news anchor guy who caused a 24-hour meltdown of prominent Minnesota Democrats on Twitter raving about him being a spoiler has been a huge bust so far and not likely to get any better (a couple weeks in and he still has no real platform besides generic platitudes.) Also worth noting that Minnesota often goes opposite the national headwinds in Gubernatorial elections...see the last three prior to 2018 for an example, so even that's not a huge issue. And to put it very mildly: None of Walz's opponents are as good a candidate as Glenn Youngkin.

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https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/1517554536105316353

A long time hack who has kept running for office hoping to be nominated something and never succeeding...I guess this might work except I doubt Gazelka wins the nomination now.

Also what's funny is that Woodbury mayor is a pretty weak position, it's the largest "non-chartered" city in Minnesota, which means that the local government can't really do anything on its own and needs to ask the state legislature for permission.

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Also what's funny is that Woodbury mayor is a pretty weak position, it's the largest "non-chartered" city in Minnesota, which means that the local government can't really do anything on its own and needs to ask the state legislature for permission.

I think what BRTD meant is that Woodbury, being a statutory city, operates under a weak mayor-council system (which is essentially forced onto the city by the statutory city code in MN state law due of the lack of a city charter), and so that's why the mayor doesn't really have much unilateral local authority to do anything.  

Yes that is correct.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/jessvanb/status/1517621321039060994

A big but not unexpected MN Senate retirement,  Sen. Dave Senjem, R-Rochester, former majority leader. Senjem really drew the short straw in redistricting going from a Biden +5 district to a Biden +21 district. DFL Rep Liz Bolden is running for this seat. Sure pickup for Democrats.

I mean that was kind of inevitable though. Did anyone seriously expect that there wouldn't be a solid D seat based in Rochester after redistricting?