MN 2022 Gov Race Megathread

[Minnesota Mike]

Ellison wins. DFL keeps its streak alive.

Ryan Wilson (R) also conceded the Auditors race to Julie Blaha (D). That race was even closer than the AG race, 0.34%.

It was extremely close but the streaks of no statewide Reps winning since 2006 and No Rep getting 50%+ statewide since 1994 continue.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Kim Crockett meanwhile, who actually lost by the largest margin of any statewide candidate said this:

https://twitter.com/DemocracyDocket/status/1590415741915832320?t=LLhMeh1d2cjVGs1...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I mentioned a couple reasons before why I think Blaha did so poorly but one I overlooked and didn't mention is that a some voters might've blamed her for the Feeding Our Future scandal.

For those unaware Feeding Our Future was a Minnesota non-profit that provided meals to low-income children and received large funding from federal COVID-related grants. However the director then committed fraud by vastly overstating how many children they were feeding to get more grants, and then she a bunch of individual site directors just pocketed the extra money. The feds recently caught on and have indicted over 50 people for fraud related to it.

Now there's very little Blaha could've done about this since it was federal funds and just symptomatic of the lack of federal oversight in regards to these COVID related programs, I bet more fraud in other states will be uncovered soon. But it's not hard to see how some voters might think she could've.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1590528705511968768

The 2022 MN Gov map looks a lot more like Biden 2020 than Walz 2018. Rural parts of the state continue to trend right but it will not matter if Dems continue to get 70% in Hennepin/Ramsey.

[Minnesota Mike]

Pretty cool tool showing how all Minnesota cities and townships voted for Governor.

https://www.minnpost.com/elections/2022/11/how-every-minnesota-city-and-township-voted-for-governor-in-2022/

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1590528705511968768
The 2022 MN Gov map looks a lot more like Biden 2020 than Walz 2018. Rural parts of the state continue to trend right but it will not matter if Dems continue to get 70% in Hennepin/Ramsey.

LMAO he almost won Lakeville!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1593019859407089664
https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1593030124328595456
https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1593037076978896898
https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1593040474688065538
Also that sole Biden/Jensen district is the closest one that exists to the one Jensen represented when he was in the State Senate.

And 34A voting for Walz is just.....WOW. Even as close as it is...that seat probably voted for Romney by like 20 points. It's the northern edge of Hennepin County and consists entirely of formerly hyper-GOP hyper-partisan exurbs.

As for the other seats he mentioned, 3 is the one in the northwest corner of the state and is one of those ancestrally D trending R areas but still not all that strongly D even for Trump, and 32 is an Anoka County district based mostly around Blaine (very swingy city) but with parts of hyper-R Ham Lake also attached. R candidate won it by 6 points regardless. 48, the aforementioned sole Biden/Jensen one that Jensen himself mostly represented is based in Carver County, a former R stronghold based on a coalition of ancestral R rural German areas and affluent suburbanites that has now strongly trended D with the suburbanites jumping ship.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1593019859407089664
https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1593030124328595456
https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1593037076978896898
https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1593040474688065538
Also that sole Biden/Jensen district is the closest one that exists to the one Jensen represented when he was in the State Senate.

And 34A voting for Walz is just.....WOW. Even as close as it is...that seat probably voted for Romney by like 20 points. It's the northern edge of Hennepin County and consists entirely of formerly hyper-GOP hyper-partisan exurbs.

As for the other seats he mentioned, 3 is the one in the northwest corner of the state and is one of those ancestrally D trending R areas but still not all that strongly D even for Trump, and 32 is an Anoka County district based mostly around Blaine (very swingy city) but with parts of hyper-R Ham Lake also attached. R candidate won it by 6 points regardless. 48, the aforementioned sole Biden/Jensen one that Jensen himself mostly represented is based in Carver County, a former R stronghold based on a coalition of ancestral R rural German areas and affluent suburbanites that has now strongly trended D with the suburbanites jumping ship.

I gotta say Dems geographic distribution in Minnesota kinda sucks since MSP is very blue and also relatively high turnout.

However, if in a few years they can solidify these suburban Trump-Biden MSP seats, they basically have a lock on the legislature; the GOP has to win at least some suburban MSP seats to win both chambers since Dems will always have the Duluth and Rochester seats.