MN 2022 Gov Race Megathread

[wbrocks67]

lol

https://twitter.com/AaronBlake/status/1567517240932679680

[LiberalDem19]

https://twitter.com/BirkMatt/status/1567317545757073408


Someone's having a normal one

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/VoteBetty/status/1567582676365844483

Tough to walk back your abortion position when this exists from earlier this year.

[Nyvin]

Any reason why the D in the SoS race is only leading by 4 in that poll?

[Duke of York]

Any reason why the D in the SoS race is only leading by 4 in that poll?

probably name recognition.

[Minnesota Mike]

Any reason why the D in the SoS race is only leading by 4 in that poll?

SOS race broke down more along party line in the SUSA poll. I think that is just the fact that neither candidate is particularly well known and undecideds (20%) were not pushed hard. My guess/hope is when those undecideds have to make a choice they will follow their vote for the top of the ticket and break toward Simon(D).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Haha. Desperation.

https://twitter.com/timjhogan/status/1567342830514831360?t=z3AdiVsHxr51ilU2EznSi...

[wbrocks67]

what in the f**k was that ad

[It's not just that you are a crook senator]

Haha. Desperation.

https://twitter.com/timjhogan/status/1567342830514831360?t=z3AdiVsHxr51ilU2EznSi...

For some reason I thought he was gonna throw that baby across the room at the end of the ad

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

What in God's name was that?? And no Mr. Jensen saying no I don't is not effective. It's like democrats and CRT/Defend the police. Denying you support such things doesn't alleviate voters fears

[Nyvin]

Haha. Desperation.

https://twitter.com/timjhogan/status/1567342830514831360?t=z3AdiVsHxr51ilU2EznSi...

That was giga-cringe to use Genz terminology.  I cant believe they actually released that ad.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The thing about Jensen ads too is that he needs to make them count because he's very low on money. After the primary and him and Walz officially became nominees Walz waived the state public funding program which would've given him $245k. Because of this Jensen actually gets his share meaning he gets $490k. Except Walz has over $5 million on hand and is raising well over that $245k a month. Jensen meanwhile can't raise any more money, so he's stuck with the $490k plus the $580k he had remaining at the primary. So he had barely over a million dollars and that was in mid-August. Walz has five times that and he can keep fundraising.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The thing about Jensen ads too is that he needs to make them count because he's very low on money. After the primary and him and Walz officially became nominees Walz waived the state public funding program which would've given him $245k. Because of this Jensen actually gets his share meaning he gets $490k. Except Walz has over $5 million on hand and is raising well over that $245k a month. Jensen meanwhile can't raise any more money, so he's stuck with the $490k plus the $580k he had remaining at the primary. So he had barely over a million dollars and that was in mid-August. Walz has five times that and he can keep fundraising.

Obv Walz is safe but for some reason I have a gut feeling Simon is in danger, at least if we assume Ellison is losing. Thoughts?

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

MNGOP right now making a strong play for Florida Democrats' "worst state party" crown

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The thing about Jensen ads too is that he needs to make them count because he's very low on money. After the primary and him and Walz officially became nominees Walz waived the state public funding program which would've given him $245k. Because of this Jensen actually gets his share meaning he gets $490k. Except Walz has over $5 million on hand and is raising well over that $245k a month. Jensen meanwhile can't raise any more money, so he's stuck with the $490k plus the $580k he had remaining at the primary. So he had barely over a million dollars and that was in mid-August. Walz has five times that and he can keep fundraising.

Obv Walz is safe but for some reason I have a gut feeling Simon is in danger, at least if we assume Ellison is losing. Thoughts?

Ellison is actually the strongest downballot Dem based on that poll which sounds weird but makes sense when you consider people know who he is and he has accomplishments to cite. And while Schultz isn't as flawed a candidate as Wardlow he's still easy to attack for Trump Admin ties and post-Dobbs behavior.

Simon's opponent is a lunatic but most people probably don't even know who she is or much about her or much about Simon since it's a low profile office hence the low polling numbers. But it's tough to see many Walz/Ellison voters voting for her, even if they aren't familiar with her they'll thus probably just vote party line. That's usually how SoS goes. State Auditor is weird because for some reason Republicans nominate their least bad candidates for it. Blaha's 2018 opponent was even endorsed by the Star Tribune which is near unheard of for a non-incumbent Republican. But since most people don't even know what that office does they don't give answers on polls (hence both under 40) and just vote party line. This year again Republicans nominated someone most non-objectionable for it by modern GOP standards but if Walz is winning by double digits and Ellison wins too there just won't be enough crossover voters for an office that rarely gets them. SoS is similar actually.

[Minnesota Mike]

The thing about Jensen ads too is that he needs to make them count because he's very low on money. After the primary and him and Walz officially became nominees Walz waived the state public funding program which would've given him $245k. Because of this Jensen actually gets his share meaning he gets $490k. Except Walz has over $5 million on hand and is raising well over that $245k a month. Jensen meanwhile can't raise any more money, so he's stuck with the $490k plus the $580k he had remaining at the primary. So he had barely over a million dollars and that was in mid-August. Walz has five times that and he can keep fundraising.

Obv Walz is safe but for some reason I have a gut feeling Simon is in danger, at least if we assume Ellison is losing. Thoughts?

Why would we assume Ellison is losing? I agree he or Blaha are the most vulnerable but I think Ellison is in better shape than he was 4 years ago even though the environment is not as good for Democrats.

- The big thing that almost sunk him 4 years ago was domestic violence allegations by an ex girlfriend that Ellison denied. Those allegations have pretty much disappeared over the past 4 years. His ex claimed to have damning cellphone video but never produced it and have been no other allegations. Still troubling but but as an issue it has faded into the background.

- He has had a relatively successful term highlighted by the conviction of Derrick Chauvin.

- Head to head matchup. No Pot party or other 3rd party candidate to lower the number needed to win for Republicans. To beat Ellison Shultz will need over 50% of the vote, something no Republican has done statewide in MN since 1994.

You can never assume a Democrat is losing statewide in Minnesota. It will happen again someday but when it does it will be an upset.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The infamous 'American Snpier' scene with the fake baby was less awkward than that Jensen ad. Is that how he holds a baby? Something about it looked wrong.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

And can I just say, I am so sick of the gaslighting in politics! Scott Jensen, if he wins(he most likely won't but let's say he does for the sake of this argument), will almost certainly have a republican state house and state senate. No he alone can't technically change  abortion policy but the state legislatures can send a bill banning abortion to him and he can sign it. So he can stuff it with the " no Governor can change it" bologna!
This kind of stuff is infuriating whether it comes the right and yes the left is guilty of it too.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/senmattklein/status/1570577421925240832?t=9s-X_3Rk7_uNLh-daJ...

[neostassenite31]

https://twitter.com/StarTribune/status/1570754372837036032

A new Mason-Dixon poll is imminent. Let's see if it corroborates the result from the Walz +17/+18 SurveyUSA and Gravis polls

[Peeperkorn]

Ellison is actually the strongest downballot Dem based on that poll which sounds weird but makes sense when you consider people know who he is and he has accomplishments to cite.

?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ellison is actually the strongest downballot Dem based on that poll which sounds weird but makes sense when you consider people know who he is and he has accomplishments to cite.

?

Most notably he convicted Derek Chauvin.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I don't think the MN GOP have reached FL-DEM or CO-GOP levels of stupidity and incompetence yet, but if this November goes at all like people think they are prime candidates.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I don't think the MN GOP have reached FL-DEM or CO-GOP levels of stupidity and incompetence yet, but if this November goes at all like people think they are prime candidates.

With all due respect, if you really think it's a neutral year there's no way someone like Walz, who is not unpopular would lose a state like Minnesota. It wouldn't matter how competent the state GOP was

[Roll Roons]

I don't think the MN GOP have reached FL-DEM or CO-GOP levels of stupidity and incompetence yet, but if this November goes at all like people think they are prime candidates.

CO GOP isn't that bad - O'Dea is much better than the likes of Masters, Walker, Oz or Vance. They've just kind of gotten screwed by educational polarization because the state is so college-educated.

If anything, I think the MI GOP should be the example of a horrifically incompetent state party.