2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[wbrocks67]

Get out the Nuclear Elmos everybody. This is a big one.

PA-11 (Susquehanna):
Lloyd Smucker (R) 50
Jess King (D) 46

https://www.abc27.com/news/politics/election/poll-us-rep-smucker-holds-narrow-lead-over-democrat-king/1562382601

LAWD. It would be like Christmas day if both PA-10 and PA-11 were Dem pickups.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say the Pittsburgh tragedy is going to uniquely impact Pennsylvania in a surprising way. Especially since the bottom has already fallen out of both republican statewide campaigns.

That makes a whole lot of sense.

However, this poll wrapped more than one week ago (Oct. 21-22), so it was unaffected by the shooting.

It doesn't help that we haven't gotten a poll in PA for over a month.

Yeah, getting annoyed that neither Muhelenberg/Morning Call or F&M haven't put out anything.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

CO-03: Tipton (R) 53 | Mitsch (D) 38
FL-18: Mast (R) 53 | Baer (D) 44 (Gillum and Nelson are running ahead of Baer)
IA-04: King (R) 45 | Scholten (D) 44 (King favorables at -10, Trump at +5)
IL-16: Kinzinger (R) 55 | Dady 41 (They have Pritzker beating Ruaner here, lol)
IN-05: Brooks (R) 50 | Thornton 44 (Donnelly up 5 here, Trump approval -1)
IN-09: Hollingsworth (R) 52 | Watson 45 (Donelly down 9 here, Trump approval +10)
KS-02: Watkins (R) 45 | Davis (D) 44 (Gov is tied)
MI-01: Bergman (R) 54 | Morgan 42 (Whitmer trails by just 3 points)
MI-06: Upton (R) 46 | Longjohn 43 (Longjohn is running several points ahead of Stabenow in the district, but several points behind Whitmer)
NY-01: Zeldin (R) 52 | Gershon (D) 37
OH-02: Wenstrup (R) 52 | Schiller (D) 39 (Brown and Cordray tied with their R opponents here)
WI-06: Grothman (R) 50 | Kohl 48 (Sen and Gov races within two here)

I want it to be real. Any idea how good Change actually is? 538 doesn't even rate them, which doesn't bode well...

Change Research has botched every race they’ve ever polled, so I would ignore their online-only junk.

To be fair, they were the only ones who had Gillum winning the FL primary IIRC.

Get out the Nuclear Elmos everybody. This is a big one.

PA-11 (Susquehanna):
Lloyd Smucker (R) 50
Jess King (D) 46

https://www.abc27.com/news/politics/election/poll-us-rep-smucker-holds-narrow-lead-over-democrat-king/1562382601

While I want to believe this and have Smucker on the more competitive end of Likely R, Suquehanna (IIRC) got caught outright making up numbers and trying to pass it off as an actual poll.  I don't think we should read too much into anything they put out.

[OneJ]

According to this, Change Research has a C+ grade from FiveThirtyEight.

[GeorgiaModerate]

According to this, Change Research has a C+ grade from FiveThirtyEight.

That's based on only a handful of polls, though.  They're a relatively new pollster.  538 doesn't update the pollster ratings frequently; I think the current list was generated in May.

[GeorgiaModerate]

NBC News/GenForward Young Adult Survey, Sep. 21 - Oct. 6, 1881 adults ages 18-34

Trump approval: 25 (strongly 10)
      disapproval: 59 (strongly 44)

GCB: D 41, R 23. With leaners: D 49, R 29.

Likelihood to vote:
    Definitely: 31
    Probably: 26
    Not sure: 23
    Probably not: 12
    Definitely not: 7

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, Oct. 28-30, 1296 registered voters

D: 47 (nc)
R: 42 (+1)

[ON Progressive]

CO-03: Tipton (R) 53 | Mitsch (D) 38
FL-18: Mast (R) 53 | Baer (D) 44 (Gillum and Nelson are running ahead of Baer)
IA-04: King (R) 45 | Scholten (D) 44 (King favorables at -10, Trump at +5)
IL-16: Kinzinger (R) 55 | Dady 41 (They have Pritzker beating Ruaner here, lol)
IN-05: Brooks (R) 50 | Thornton 44 (Donnelly up 5 here, Trump approval -1)
IN-09: Hollingsworth (R) 52 | Watson 45 (Donelly down 9 here, Trump approval +10)
KS-02: Watkins (R) 45 | Davis (D) 44 (Gov is tied)
MI-01: Bergman (R) 54 | Morgan 42 (Whitmer trails by just 3 points)
MI-06: Upton (R) 46 | Longjohn 43 (Longjohn is running several points ahead of Stabenow in the district, but several points behind Whitmer)
NY-01: Zeldin (R) 52 | Gershon (D) 37
OH-02: Wenstrup (R) 52 | Schiller (D) 39 (Brown and Cordray tied with their R opponents here)
WI-06: Grothman (R) 50 | Kohl 48 (Sen and Gov races within two here)

I want it to be real. Any idea how good Change actually is? 538 doesn't even rate them, which doesn't bode well...

Change Research has botched every race they’ve ever polled, so I would ignore their online-only junk.

To be fair, they were the only ones who had Gillum winning the FL primary IIRC.

Even in that one, they missed by seven. They are an awful pollster, that simple.

[Gass3268]

NJ-07 (Monmouth):

Standard - Malinowski 47 | Lance 44
Dem Surge - Malinowski 48 | Lance 43
Low Turnout - Malinowksi 46 | Lance 46

Source

Lances favorables have dropped since September:

37% Favorable (-3)
34% Unfavorable (+10)

Malinowski's image has stayed the same:

36% Favorable (+7)
23% Unfavorable (+7)

Trump's Approval

46% Approve (+4)
51% Disapprove (-2)

Republicans or Democrats in Control of the House

45% Democrats (+/-)
42% Republicans (+4)

Health Care is still the #1 issue 30-19 over Immigration, Malinowski leads on that issue 40-29. Folks are split on who the trust on taxes, 36-35 (slight favor to Malinowski).

[Dr. Arch]

NJ-07 (Monmouth):

Standard - Malinowski 47 | Lance 44
Dem Surge - Malinowski 48 | Lance 43
Low Turnout - Malinowksi 46 | Lance 46

Source

Lances favorables have dropped since September:

37% Favorable (-3)
34% Unfavorable (+10)

Malinowski's image has stayed the same:

36% Favorable (+7)
23% Unfavorable (+7)

Oh my...

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

C'mon, where are the quality GCB polls, people? We should not be stuck with Rasmussen/Ipsos/Yougov/Harris at this stage.

[GeorgiaModerate]

C'mon, where are the quality GCB polls, people? We should not be stuck with Rasmussen/Ipsos/Yougov/Harris at this stage.

The results of a very high-quality poll with a very large sample size will be released Tuesday night.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

C'mon, where are the quality GCB polls, people? We should not be stuck with Rasmussen/Ipsos/Yougov/Harris at this stage.

they're working on it... hopefully

[Gass3268]

C'mon, where are the quality GCB polls, people? We should not be stuck with Rasmussen/Ipsos/Yougov/Harris at this stage.

Sunday shows? Monday? Maybe? Hopefully?

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

C'mon, where are the quality GCB polls, people? We should not be stuck with Rasmussen/Ipsos/Yougov/Harris at this stage.

The results of a very high-quality poll with a very large sample size will be released Tuesday night.

is this that annoying pollster that only releases results in chunks throughout the night?

[Virginiá]

The 538 GCB tracker, updated to today:


Lots of weird zig-zagging this week, with a dearth of high-quality polls and an unfortunate sensitivity to massive outliers like the USC poll or questionable trackers like Harris and Ipsos. Overall it ends up a wash, but I'm a lot less confident in today's 8.5 than I was in the 8.6 from a week ago.

Here's hoping some good poll comes out soon to give us a new baseline.

Didn't they change their model to make it less swingy like midway through that graph? Just curious what it would look like without those changes.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The 538 GCB tracker, updated to today:


Lots of weird zig-zagging this week, with a dearth of high-quality polls and an unfortunate sensitivity to massive outliers like the USC poll or questionable trackers like Harris and Ipsos. Overall it ends up a wash, but I'm a lot less confident in today's 8.5 than I was in the 8.6 from a week ago.

Here's hoping some good poll comes out soon to give us a new baseline.

Didn't they change their model to make it less swingy like midway through that graph? Just curious what it would look like without those changes.

Yeah, they changed it on September and recalculated every past estimate in the process. You can still view the old pre-Sept. 6 data on their GCB page (there's a button for it at the bottom of the chart). Basically, it's a lot messier.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Harvard/Harris, Oct. 26-28, 1835 RV (change from late Sept.)

D: 47 (+2)
R: 38 (+1)

[Gass3268]

PA-16 (Susquehanna):

Ron DiNicola (D) 51%
Mike Kelly (R) 47%

Source

The sample +4 Republican by registration (+5 Republican ID).

[Yank2133]

PA-16 (Susquehanna):

Ron DiNicola (D) 51%
Mike Kelly (R) 47%

Source

The sample +4 Republican by registration (+5 Republican ID).

Feels like VA all over again....

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

PA-16 (Susquehanna):

Ron DiNicola (D) 51%
Mike Kelly (R) 47%

Source

The sample +4 Republican by registration (+5 Republican ID).

Oh my.

Not sure I buy it, tbh, but oh how I would love that.

[Gass3268]

NBC/Marist Poll of Indiana Coming

[Comrade Funk]

NBC/Marist Poll of Indiana Coming

Finally

[Politician]

PA-16 (Susquehanna):

Ron DiNicola (D) 51%
Mike Kelly (R) 47%

Source

The sample +4 Republican by registration (+5 Republican ID).

[Gass3268]

Cartwright up 17 in PA-08:

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1057738146979504129

[new_patomic]

PA-16 (Susquehanna):

Ron DiNicola (D) 51%
Mike Kelly (R) 47%

Source

The sample +4 Republican by registration (+5 Republican ID).

Trump's approval is -3 here.

Versus +14 in the Siena poll from a month ago.