2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Gass3268]

NJ-05 (McLAUGHlin):
Josh Gottheimer (D-inc) 47
John McCann (R) 38

https://newjerseyglobe.com/fl/mccann-poll-has-gottheimer-ahead-by-9-points/

Safe D. I expect Gottheimer to win by at least 19 now.

Lol, if this is the best they can show.

[Gass3268]

NBC/Marist has GCB at D+10

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_1810241423.pdf

This is actually NPR/PBS/Marist. NBC, with the Wall Street Journal, uses a different firm for their national numbers.

Also this is +2 for Democrats and -2 for Republicans, taken during the time that Trump was trying to scaremonger with immigration. Very good poll!

[Gass3268]

Also, this unfortunately is only an RV poll, but for people who say the 2018 Congressional Elections are Very Important, Democrats jump up by 5 points.

[Gass3268]

Apologies if this has already been posted:

MT-AL: U of Montana, Oct. 10-18, 607 RV

Williams (D) 45.8
Gianforte (R, inc) 45.3
Swanson (L) 1.8

Folks are nuts if they still have this as Lean R.

[Gass3268]

NBC/Marist has GCB at D+10

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_1810241423.pdf

This is actually NPR/PBS/Marist. NBC, with the Wall Street Journal, uses a different firm for their national numbers.

Also this is +2 for Democrats and -2 for Republicans, taken during the time that Trump was trying to scaremonger with immigration. Very good poll!

Dave Weigel made an excellent point, as he typically does, that slipped my mind. This was the poll that started the narrative of the "Kavanaugh Bump." So much for that.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1056433923817799685

And this is a poll with Trump +9 approval LOL

Haha

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1056698446139285505

Dems gained 1 point from last week.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1056698446139285505

Dems gained 1 point from last week.

Different poll this is -2 for dems

Last week it was D+8.

There was another Harris Poll. That's confusing.

[Gass3268]

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-latimes-poll-20181029-story.html

USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times tracking poll: GCB D+17 (57-40)

Wow, thats +4 from last week! Definite outlier, but one I like!

[Gass3268]

Quinnipiac is releasing a TX-Sen poll today. They only do certain states, but Iowa or Ohio would have been better choices for this week.

[Gass3268]

TBH, I don't really foresee younger voters voting early. It would seem more likely, to me, that they'll come out on Election Day. That's why I think some of these "young people aren't coming out to vote at all because they're not voting early" takes are very off.

About 40% would be pretty good! I do have to say I'm happy that I'm now in the 30-45 group now. We vote at higher rates!

[Gass3268]

PRRI, Sep. 17 - Oct. 1, 2509 adults (change from last month)

D: 57 (+13)
R: 39 (+4)

Note: 538 is showing this as 48/39, but the PDF clearly has 57 rather than 48.

David Lauter from the LA Times, is saying on twitter that the bump coincides with the bomb scare and the Pittsburgh shooting. I would like to see two or three GCB polls from other outlets first before I agree or disagree.

It makes sense for me. The aftermath of Charlottesville was one of Trump's lowest points. The middle hates chaos and violence; they swung against Hillary Clinton because the Comey letter promised more investigations and mess from the beginning. The question is whether this carries through to Election Day or if something changes the subject.

It's pretty clear Fox want's to change the subject, they are already back talking about the caravan.

[Gass3268]

Of course RCP doesn't use the USC poll, but they did in 2016.

[Gass3268]

They don’t do a CGB poll, but Trumps approval dropped 8 points [in Gallup's weekly poll --mod.] today. Will be interesting to see if other polls continue to pick this up and if it’s reflective in the CGB.

[Gass3268]

Suffolk/USA Today is releasing a FL Sen/Gov poll.

[Gass3268]

Connecticut poll coming tomorrow:

https://twitter.com/QuinnipiacPoll/status/1056984015490568192

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1057114071588208641

CO-03: Tipton (R) 53 | Mitsch (D) 38
FL-18: Mast (R) 53 | Baer (D) 44 (Gillum and Nelson are running ahead of Baer)
IA-04: King (R) 45 | Scholten (D) 44 (King favorables at -10, Trump at +5)
IL-16: Kinzinger (R) 55 | Dady 41 (They have Pritzker beating Ruaner here, lol)
IN-05: Brooks (R) 50 | Thornton 44 (Donnelly up 5 here, Trump approval -1)
IN-09: Hollingsworth (R) 52 | Watson 45 (Donelly down 9 here, Trump approval +10)
KS-02: Watkins (R) 45 | Davis (D) 44 (Gov is tied)
MI-01: Bergman (R) 54 | Morgan 42 (Whitmer trails by just 3 points)
MI-06: Upton (R) 46 | Longjohn 43 (Longjohn is running several points ahead of Stabenow in the district, but several points behind Whitmer)
NY-01: Zeldin (R) 52 | Gershon (D) 37
OH-02: Wenstrup (R) 52 | Schiller (D) 39 (Brown and Cordray tied with their R opponents here)
WI-06: Grothman (R) 50 | Kohl 48 (Sen and Gov races within two here)

[Gass3268]

538 gives Change Research a C+ with a R+.8 bias. So many of these are going to be nearly ties in their model.

[Gass3268]

Considering how little polling we've gotten out of Indiana, IN-05 +5 Donnelly  and IN-09 -9 Donnelly is not what I was expecting.

[Gass3268]

Considering how little polling we've gotten out of Indiana, IN-05 +5 Donnelly  and IN-09 -9 Donnelly is not what I was expecting.

Why what did you expect?

A Democrat cracking those Indy suburbs is like a Democrat cracking the Cincinnati or Milwaukee suburbs, I'll believe it when I see it. Also I figured he'd be closer in IN-09. Would be interested to see a IN-02 poll.

[Gass3268]

Considering how little polling we've gotten out of Indiana, IN-05 +5 Donnelly  and IN-09 -9 Donnelly is not what I was expecting.

Why what did you expect?

A Democrat cracking those Indy suburbs is like a Democrat cracking the Cincinnati or Milwaukee suburbs, I'll believe it when I see it. Also I figured he'd be closer in IN-09. Would be interested to see a IN-02 poll.

Donnelly aint exciting to the college kids in Indiana 9th, so the dem base won't be fired up as much there, kinda like Manchin in Monongalia, maybe a little better though. Oh, he's definitely leading in Indiana 2nd CD, it's his home turf.

College kids don't vote in midterms. Even in TX where there is Betomania, they are not voting all that much.

College kids vote at better rates than their peers who aren't going to school.

[Gass3268]

CO-03: Tipton (R) 53 | Mitsch (D) 38
FL-18: Mast (R) 53 | Baer (D) 44 (Gillum and Nelson are running ahead of Baer)
IA-04: King (R) 45 | Scholten (D) 44 (King favorables at -10, Trump at +5)
IL-16: Kinzinger (R) 55 | Dady 41 (They have Pritzker beating Ruaner here, lol)
IN-05: Brooks (R) 50 | Thornton 44 (Donnelly up 5 here, Trump approval -1)
IN-09: Hollingsworth (R) 52 | Watson 45 (Donelly down 9 here, Trump approval +10)
KS-02: Watkins (R) 45 | Davis (D) 44 (Gov is tied)
MI-01: Bergman (R) 54 | Morgan 42 (Whitmer trails by just 3 points)
MI-06: Upton (R) 46 | Longjohn 43 (Longjohn is running several points ahead of Stabenow in the district, but several points behind Whitmer)
NY-01: Zeldin (R) 52 | Gershon (D) 37
OH-02: Wenstrup (R) 52 | Schiller (D) 39 (Brown and Cordray tied with their R opponents here)
WI-06: Grothman (R) 50 | Kohl 48 (Sen and Gov races within two here)

I want it to be real. Any idea how good Change actually is? 538 doesn't even rate them, which doesn't bode well...

They gave them a C+, with a R+0.8 bias.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/NewsbySmiley/status/1057267602790203392?s=19

I have noticed that we haven't seen a poll from Salazar in a while. I imagine the birthright citizenship question and fear mongering over the "caravan" is not helping her here.

[Gass3268]

NJ-07 (Monmouth):

Standard - Malinowski 47 | Lance 44
Dem Surge - Malinowski 48 | Lance 43
Low Turnout - Malinowksi 46 | Lance 46

Source

Lances favorables have dropped since September:

37% Favorable (-3)
34% Unfavorable (+10)

Malinowski's image has stayed the same:

36% Favorable (+7)
23% Unfavorable (+7)

Trump's Approval

46% Approve (+4)
51% Disapprove (-2)

Republicans or Democrats in Control of the House

45% Democrats (+/-)
42% Republicans (+4)

Health Care is still the #1 issue 30-19 over Immigration, Malinowski leads on that issue 40-29. Folks are split on who the trust on taxes, 36-35 (slight favor to Malinowski).

[Gass3268]

C'mon, where are the quality GCB polls, people? We should not be stuck with Rasmussen/Ipsos/Yougov/Harris at this stage.

Sunday shows? Monday? Maybe? Hopefully?