2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 29, 2024, 03:31:20 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread		 « previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 4 [5] 6 7 8 9 10 ... 80
Author Topic: 2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread  (Read 167653 times)
GeorgiaModerate
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,701


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #100 on: October 29, 2018, 02:16:43 PM »
Quote from: IceSpear on October 29, 2018, 02:14:19 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 29, 2018, 02:13:18 PM
NY-27: Tulchin Research (McMurray internal), Oct. 25-28, 400 LV (change from early Oct.)

McMurray (D) 47 (+5)
Collins (R, inc) 43 (+1)
Piegza (Reform) 4 (-2)

Read that as Pizza (Reform)

Pizza reform is an issue we could all get behind!
Logged
President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
Atlas Politician
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,386
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #101 on: October 29, 2018, 02:19:49 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 29, 2018, 02:16:43 PM
Quote from: IceSpear on October 29, 2018, 02:14:19 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 29, 2018, 02:13:18 PM
NY-27: Tulchin Research (McMurray internal), Oct. 25-28, 400 LV (change from early Oct.)

McMurray (D) 47 (+5)
Collins (R, inc) 43 (+1)
Piegza (Reform) 4 (-2)

Read that as Pizza (Reform)

Pizza reform is an issue we could all get behind!
Logged
Wells
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,075
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #102 on: October 29, 2018, 02:38:30 PM »

Isn't this the poll that had Trump up for all of 2016? I think it's possible that it's just not a good pollster.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,701


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #103 on: October 29, 2018, 02:43:43 PM »
Quote from: michelle on October 29, 2018, 02:38:30 PM

Isn't this the poll that had Trump up for all of 2016? I think it's possible that it's just not a good pollster.

They do use a different methodology: a pool of respondents which gets polled at recurring intervals.  For this year:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #104 on: October 29, 2018, 02:45:00 PM »
They are very imprecise in their language there. If you are using the same pool of respondents, it is a panel survey, not a poll.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,177
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #105 on: October 29, 2018, 03:11:07 PM »
I'd much rather have a couple high-quality pollsters showing D+10 than a pollster with a dubious track record and methodology showing D+17, but you've gotta take what you can.
Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,884
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #106 on: October 29, 2018, 04:11:19 PM »
Quote from: Secret Cavern Survivor on October 29, 2018, 03:11:07 PM
I'd much rather have a couple high-quality pollsters showing D+10 than a pollster with a dubious track record and methodology showing D+17, but you've gotta take what you can.

And, granted that I have never been alive for a D+17 let alone D+15 electorate, but individual polling and each party's strategic investments (hinting at their private polls) do not suggest such an environment. I seriously doubt Democrats would be falling behind in the Senate if it electorate was that anti-Republican, nor do I think someone like Hurd or Valadao would look like favorites for reelection.
Logged
Mehmentum
Icefire9
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,600
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #107 on: October 29, 2018, 04:14:07 PM »
Quote from: Virginiá on October 29, 2018, 04:11:19 PM
Quote from: Secret Cavern Survivor on October 29, 2018, 03:11:07 PM
I'd much rather have a couple high-quality pollsters showing D+10 than a pollster with a dubious track record and methodology showing D+17, but you've gotta take what you can.

And, granted that I have never been alive for a D+17 let alone D+15 electorate, but individual polling and each party's strategic investments (hinting at their private polls) do not suggest such an environment. I seriously doubt Democrats would be falling behind in the Senate if it electorate was that anti-Republican, nor do I think someone like Hurd or Valadao would look like favorites for reelection.
I dunno, the individual polls definitely do not support a D+15 electorate, but some of the investments do.  SC-01, for example.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,177
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #108 on: October 29, 2018, 05:38:08 PM »
Well, the slew of new polls that I predicted for today hasn't really materialized so far. Maybe they're waiting for tomorrow so it could count as a final week poll?
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,245


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #109 on: October 29, 2018, 06:03:09 PM »
Quote from: Secret Cavern Survivor on October 29, 2018, 05:38:08 PM
Well, the slew of new polls that I predicted for today hasn't really materialized so far. Maybe they're waiting for tomorrow so it could count as a final week poll?

If you take out NYT/Siena, this cycle has been rough as hell for polls, especially senate ones. We're a week before the election and we got only like a handful today. Insane.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,701


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #110 on: October 29, 2018, 06:06:34 PM »
We should get the regular online trackers (YouGov, Morning Consult, and Ipsos) over the next few days, but they're not exactly high-quality pollsters.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #111 on: October 29, 2018, 06:10:22 PM »
PA-10: Perry (R) +3

Perry 49
Scott 46

https://www.abc27.com/news/politics/election/poll-us-rep-perry-in-close-contest-with-democrat-scott/1560816650

Pretty good poll for Dems.
Logged
Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,846


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #112 on: October 29, 2018, 06:23:04 PM »
UT-04

https://kutv.com/news/local/exclusive-poll-4th-congressional-district-race-between-love-mcadams-widens-by-6-points

McAdams (D): 49.51%
Love (R): 43.05%

Not only decimals, but 2 decimal places!
Logged
swf541
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,916


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #113 on: October 29, 2018, 06:23:09 PM »

Definitely is, especially considering the pollster.  I think Scott pulls it off tbh
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,245


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #114 on: October 29, 2018, 06:24:41 PM »

Also, people want a check on Trump (52%) rather than someone blindly following him (45%), which means Scott has some upside here. All of the polls have had Perry only up 2 or 3, so hopefully Scott can get dragged over the finish line.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #115 on: October 29, 2018, 06:37:39 PM »

It has McAdams winning independents by 80 points, lol. Not a typo. It also has Romney +15 in the district which seems...off.
Logged
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,997
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #116 on: October 29, 2018, 06:49:46 PM »
Quote from: IceSpear on October 29, 2018, 06:37:39 PM

It has McAdams winning independents by 80 points, lol. Not a typo. It also has Romney +15 in the district which seems...off.

I think McAdams edges it out in the end, but Romney winning the district by that much while Love is losing isn't impossible. Remember that Love lost the race in 2012 even when Romney won the district by 35 points.
Logged
new_patomic
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,217


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #117 on: October 29, 2018, 06:55:37 PM »
I think the issue is that they don't have Mitt Romney winning by enough.
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #118 on: October 29, 2018, 06:57:48 PM »

Wowzers, this one will be close.
Logged
Mr. Illini
liberty142
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,843
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #119 on: October 29, 2018, 07:07:27 PM »

I want it to be true so badly
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,701


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #120 on: October 29, 2018, 07:22:45 PM »
538 has now added both versions of the PRRI poll to the database (57-39 all adults, 48-39 RV).
Logged
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,997
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #121 on: October 29, 2018, 07:33:54 PM »
McAdams is polling 23% with Republicans.
Logged
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,997
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #122 on: October 29, 2018, 07:43:18 PM »
Democrat Susan Wild continues to hold double-digit lead in race to replace Republican Charlie Dent in PA-07:

Wild (D): 49%
Northstein (R): 38%
Silfies (L): 2%

http://www.wfmz.com/news/lehigh-valley/democrats-still-ahead-in-final-poll/832607237
Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #123 on: October 29, 2018, 07:44:13 PM »
Quote from: Lou Barletta's Teeth on October 29, 2018, 07:43:18 PM
Democrat Susan Wild continues to hold double-digit lead in race to replace Republican Charlie Dent in PA-07:

Wild (D): 49%
Northstein (R): 38%
Silfies (L): 2%

http://www.wfmz.com/news/lehigh-valley/democrats-still-ahead-in-final-poll/832607237
Only Sean Trende could look at this and see a pure tossup.
Logged
TarHeelDem
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,448
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #124 on: October 29, 2018, 07:47:55 PM »
Quote from: Politician on October 29, 2018, 07:44:13 PM
Quote from: Lou Barletta's Teeth on October 29, 2018, 07:43:18 PM
Democrat Susan Wild continues to hold double-digit lead in race to replace Republican Charlie Dent in PA-07:

Wild (D): 49%
Northstein (R): 38%
Silfies (L): 2%

http://www.wfmz.com/news/lehigh-valley/democrats-still-ahead-in-final-poll/832607237
Only Sean Trende could look at this and see a pure tossup.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 4 [5] 6 7 8 9 10 ... 80  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.052 seconds with 12 queries.