2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread
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Author Topic: 2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread  (Read 167716 times)
Oryxslayer
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« Reply #175 on: October 30, 2018, 08:10:21 AM »
« edited: October 30, 2018, 08:13:42 AM by Oryxslayer »

Campa-Najier changing parties really shook up this race Tongue
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #176 on: October 30, 2018, 08:17:17 AM »

Looks like Campa-Najjar is a “security threat” to Hunter’s job security. Wink
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Pollster
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« Reply #177 on: October 30, 2018, 08:19:47 AM »
Quote from: Ebsy on October 29, 2018, 11:30:05 PM
Interested to know how Change Research's patented Bias Correct technology has avoided the typical obstacles to polling in Indiana.

Indiana only strictly regulates telephone polling - Change Research is an online pollster.
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Devils30
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« Reply #178 on: October 30, 2018, 08:26:12 AM »
Would like to see a CA-21 poll. Something tells me this thing is close
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #179 on: October 30, 2018, 08:34:55 AM »

Collins and Hunter both need to be defeated, even if it is just for one cycle.
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OneJ
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« Reply #180 on: October 30, 2018, 08:40:19 AM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 30, 2018, 07:43:15 AM

Tester+3 in that poll, and Trump with 58/39 approval, so this looks pretty plausible.

Why does it have to be from Gravis though? Sad
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #181 on: October 30, 2018, 08:56:38 AM »
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Gass3268
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« Reply #182 on: October 30, 2018, 09:00:10 AM »
Quote from: TheRocketRaccoon on October 30, 2018, 08:56:38 AM


I have noticed that we haven't seen a poll from Salazar in a while. I imagine the birthright citizenship question and fear mongering over the "caravan" is not helping her here.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #183 on: October 30, 2018, 10:14:37 AM »
Emerson KS-03-

Davids (D): 55% (+12)
Yoder (R-inc.): 43%

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Strong Candidate
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« Reply #184 on: October 30, 2018, 10:19:39 AM »
Quote from: Lou Barletta's Teeth on October 30, 2018, 10:14:37 AM
Emerson KS-03-

Davids (D): 55% (+12)
Yoder (R-inc.): 43%


n=262 though (I mean, Davids will win, but this is garbage).
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #185 on: October 30, 2018, 11:15:11 AM »
I think Gianforte will be fine if the Senate race is Tester +3, but it will be closer than it should be.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #186 on: October 30, 2018, 12:28:05 PM »
Quote from: Fremont Speaker ON Progressive on October 30, 2018, 06:23:56 AM
Quote from: TheRocketRaccoon on October 30, 2018, 06:18:46 AM




Looks like we’ll get Rep. Delgado. Smiley
But josh kraushaar told me republicans were ahead in NY-19!
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #187 on: October 30, 2018, 05:43:37 PM »
Get out the Nuclear Elmos everybody. This is a big one.

PA-11 (Susquehanna):
Lloyd Smucker (R) 50
Jess King (D) 46

https://www.abc27.com/news/politics/election/poll-us-rep-smucker-holds-narrow-lead-over-democrat-king/1562382601
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #188 on: October 30, 2018, 05:44:00 PM »

Wow.
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Xing
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« Reply #189 on: October 30, 2018, 05:47:14 PM »

It seems more and more red districts are not looking completely safe for Republicans. I would guess at least a few more could slip through the cracks. Either way, it's looking like Republicans pretty much need to pull a royal flush to keep the House.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #190 on: October 30, 2018, 05:48:20 PM »

A Susquehanna poll, no less...
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #191 on: October 30, 2018, 05:49:28 PM »
Quote from: Xing on October 30, 2018, 05:47:14 PM

It seems more and more red districts are not looking completely safe for Republicans. I would guess at least a few more could slip through the cracks. Either way, it's looking like Republicans pretty much need to pull a royal flush to keep the House.

I just think the bottom is falling out. First the package bombs, then the shooting, now the birthplace citizenship debate. The momentum is clearly with the Democrats in the closing days.
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Person Man
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« Reply #192 on: October 30, 2018, 05:54:19 PM »
Quote from: Lou Barletta's Teeth on October 30, 2018, 05:49:28 PM
Quote from: Xing on October 30, 2018, 05:47:14 PM

It seems more and more red districts are not looking completely safe for Republicans. I would guess at least a few more could slip through the cracks. Either way, it's looking like Republicans pretty much need to pull a royal flush to keep the House.

I just think the bottom is falling out. First the package bombs, then the shooting, now the birthplace citizenship debate. The momentum is clearly with the Democrats in the closing days.

Yeah. Think about that. If you are not born a citizen automatically, who decides if you are a citizen? The implications of that sounds like the Immigration Act of 1926 on meth.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #193 on: October 30, 2018, 05:58:34 PM »
Quote from: Come on! on October 30, 2018, 05:54:19 PM
Quote from: Lou Barletta's Teeth on October 30, 2018, 05:49:28 PM
Quote from: Xing on October 30, 2018, 05:47:14 PM

It seems more and more red districts are not looking completely safe for Republicans. I would guess at least a few more could slip through the cracks. Either way, it's looking like Republicans pretty much need to pull a royal flush to keep the House.

I just think the bottom is falling out. First the package bombs, then the shooting, now the birthplace citizenship debate. The momentum is clearly with the Democrats in the closing days.

Yeah. Think about that. If you are not born a citizen automatically, who decides if you are a citizen? The implications of that sounds like the Immigration Act of 1926 on meth.

WOW. This is an amazingly good poll for PA-11.

And it is not even an internal!!!!!
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #194 on: October 30, 2018, 05:58:54 PM »

LAWD. It would be like Christmas day if both PA-10 and PA-11 were Dem pickups.
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Strong Candidate
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« Reply #195 on: October 30, 2018, 06:00:22 PM »

Great poll!
But also one with a Trump approval rating perhaps a bit too low for a district he won by 26 points (even at 49-49)
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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« Reply #196 on: October 30, 2018, 06:01:16 PM »
Hmm, well the PA-11 poll only has a sample size of 311.

That is super-small and VERY noisy. So it is most likely a substantial outlier.
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new_patomic
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« Reply #197 on: October 30, 2018, 06:04:49 PM »
Quote from: INCUMBENT Cruz Will Win 👁 on October 30, 2018, 06:01:16 PM
Hmm, well the PA-11 poll only has a sample size of 311.

That is super-small and VERY noisy. So it is most likely a substantial outlier.
*Bubble bopping*
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #198 on: October 30, 2018, 06:13:52 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on October 30, 2018, 05:58:54 PM

LAWD. It would be like Christmas day if both PA-10 and PA-11 were Dem pickups.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say the Pittsburgh tragedy is going to uniquely impact Pennsylvania in a surprising way. Especially since the bottom has already fallen out of both republican statewide campaigns.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #199 on: October 30, 2018, 06:14:20 PM »
Maybe it just wishful thinking, but this election feels like a larger scale of what happened here in VA last November.
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