2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Antonio the Sixth]

The 538 tracker definitely feels like it's been getting swingier. The USC Dornsife poll seems to have moved it all the way from 8.1 back to 8.5 like it was back when multiple high-quality polls had dems up by double digits. Admittedly that poll was a massive outlier, but that's kind of the point: the tracker is supposed to be reticent to follow outliers.

I seem to remember them mentioning that the tracker would become more sensitive as we approach election day, but I'm not sure if it's a great idea, honestly, especially if we keep getting so few high-quality polls.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

50-43: https://kutv.com/news/local/exclusive-poll-4th-congressional-district-race-between-love-mcadams-widens-by-6-points

[Mr. Smith]

-insert I Want to Believe pic here-

[Mr. Illini]

#DemSurge

[I Can Now Die Happy]

I believe that D+17 is clearly a junk poll. Again, I believe that Rasmussen seems to be the only one that isn't mediocre and they only have it at D+3. I suggest that you treat all the other GCB polls as outliers. Although there is no evidence, I believe it's possible the actual vote will be something like R+1 at this point.

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html#polls

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Did Candace Owens just create an Atlas account? ^^

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

D+17 is clearly a junk poll. Again, Rasmussen seems to be the only one that isn't mediocre and they only have it at D+3. Treat all the other GCB polls as outliers. It's possible the actual vote will be something like R+1 at this point.

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html#polls

Maybe a negligible one, but I would think that it is a pretty agreed upon almost fact at this point that dems are winning the national house vote.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

D+17 is clearly a junk poll. Again, Rasmussen seems to be the only one that isn't mediocre and they only have it at D+3. Treat all the other GCB polls as outliers. It's possible the actual vote will be something like R+1 at this point.

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html#polls

I'm sorry my fellow Democrats can't realize what is actually happening, the Democrats are going to massively underperform the polls like 2016. We'll be lucky if we pick up anymore than 10 seats, I tbqh won't be surprised to see us lose seats.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

D+17 is clearly a junk poll. Again, Rasmussen seems to be the only one that isn't mediocre and they only have it at D+3. Treat all the other GCB polls as outliers. It's possible the actual vote will be something like R+1 at this point.

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html#polls

I'm sorry my fellow Democrats can't realize what is actually happening, the Democrats are going to massively underperform the polls like 2016. We'll be lucky if we pick up anymore than 10 seats, I tbqh won't be surprised to see us lose seats.

Yep, it must be pretty awful from your side's perspective. I recommend investing in cake and wine or whatever to prepare for November 6

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

D+17 is clearly a junk poll. Again, Rasmussen seems to be the only one that isn't mediocre and they only have it at D+3. Treat all the other GCB polls as outliers. It's possible the actual vote will be something like R+1 at this point.

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html#polls

I'm sorry my fellow Democrats can't realize what is actually happening, the Democrats are going to massively underperform the polls like 2016. We'll be lucky if we pick up anymore than 10 seats, I tbqh won't be surprised to see us lose seats.

Yep, it must be pretty awful from your side's perspective. I recommend investing in cake and wine or whatever to prepare for November 6

I've already resigned to losing, I scheduled a week off my normal work to mourn in private, I quit my campaign job and left a note saying this is effortless. I want to mentally prepare myself before the inevitable.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

D+17 is clearly a junk poll. Again, Rasmussen seems to be the only one that isn't mediocre and they only have it at D+3. Treat all the other GCB polls as outliers. It's possible the actual vote will be something like R+1 at this point.

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html#polls

I'm sorry my fellow Democrats can't realize what is actually happening, the Democrats are going to massively underperform the polls like 2016. We'll be lucky if we pick up anymore than 10 seats, I tbqh won't be surprised to see us lose seats.

Yep, it must be pretty awful from your side's perspective. I recommend investing in cake and wine or whatever to prepare for November 6

Aren't cake and wine usually celebratory foods?

[I Can Now Die Happy]

@Bagel: yeah but it's also nice to consume when you make yourself wanna feel better after an unexpected loss

I also recommend french fries (consider adding cheese and bacon), donuts, fried chicken, barbecue, pizza, etc

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

@Bagel: yeah but it's also nice to consume when you make yourself wanna feel better after an unexpected loss

I also recommend french fries (consider adding cheese and bacon), donuts, fried chicken, barbecue, pizza, etc

Thanks, even if it is a traditionally "good night" for dems by winning the house, not getting completely bludgeoned in the senate, and picking up some critical governor seats, etc. I would indeed consider acquiring some of those items for Manchin's loss.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

@Bagel: yeah but it's also nice to consume when you make yourself wanna feel better after an unexpected loss

I also recommend french fries (consider adding cheese and bacon), donuts, fried chicken, barbecue, pizza, etc

Thanks, even if it is a traditionally "good night" for dems by winning the house, not getting completely bludgeoned in the senate, and picking up some critical governor seats, etc. I would indeed consider acquiring some of those items for Manchin's loss.

When Manchin, Nelson, Donnelly, Heitkamp and McCaskill lose, we can all grieve together right?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

@Bagel: yeah but it's also nice to consume when you make yourself wanna feel better after an unexpected loss

I also recommend french fries (consider adding cheese and bacon), donuts, fried chicken, barbecue, pizza, etc

Thanks, even if it is a traditionally "good night" for dems by winning the house, not getting completely bludgeoned in the senate, and picking up some critical governor seats, etc. I would indeed consider acquiring some of those items for Manchin's loss.

When Manchin, Nelson, Donnelly, Heitkamp and McCaskill lose, we can all grieve together right?

For the record, I have always had Nelson winning and I still think he pulls through, but if that occurs, then yes.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1057114071588208641

CO-03: Tipton (R) 53 | Mitsch (D) 38
FL-18: Mast (R) 53 | Baer (D) 44 (Gillum and Nelson are running ahead of Baer)
IA-04: King (R) 45 | Scholten (D) 44 (King favorables at -10, Trump at +5)
IL-16: Kinzinger (R) 55 | Dady 41 (They have Pritzker beating Ruaner here, lol)
IN-05: Brooks (R) 50 | Thornton 44 (Donnelly up 5 here, Trump approval -1)
IN-09: Hollingsworth (R) 52 | Watson 45 (Donelly down 9 here, Trump approval +10)
KS-02: Watkins (R) 45 | Davis (D) 44 (Gov is tied)
MI-01: Bergman (R) 54 | Morgan 42 (Whitmer trails by just 3 points)
MI-06: Upton (R) 46 | Longjohn 43 (Longjohn is running several points ahead of Stabenow in the district, but several points behind Whitmer)
NY-01: Zeldin (R) 52 | Gershon (D) 37
OH-02: Wenstrup (R) 52 | Schiller (D) 39 (Brown and Cordray tied with their R opponents here)
WI-06: Grothman (R) 50 | Kohl 48 (Sen and Gov races within two here)

[ON Progressive]

Oh dear God, Change Research is flooding is with a dozen junk polls.

[KingSweden]

D+17 is clearly a junk poll. Again, Rasmussen seems to be the only one that isn't mediocre and they only have it at D+3. Treat all the other GCB polls as outliers. It's possible the actual vote will be something like R+1 at this point.

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html#polls

I'm sorry my fellow Democrats can't realize what is actually happening, the Democrats are going to massively underperform the polls like 2016. We'll be lucky if we pick up anymore than 10 seats, I tbqh won't be surprised to see us lose seats.

Yep, it must be pretty awful from your side's perspective. I recommend investing in cake and wine or whatever to prepare for November 6

I've already resigned to losing, I scheduled a week off my normal work to mourn in private, I quit my campaign job and left a note saying this is effortless. I want to mentally prepare myself before the inevitable.

Dude stop this isn’t fair, he can’t tell you’re trolling him

[I Can Now Die Happy]

@kingsweden: maybe he isn't trolling and will actually be taking my advice for real. Hope he has a delicious feast on the night of November 6 and isn't feeling too sad

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1057114071588208641

CO-03: Tipton (R) 53 | Mitsch (D) 38
FY-18: Mast (R) 53 | Baer (D) 44
IN-05: Brooks (R) 50 | Thornton 44 (Donnelly up 5 here, Trump approval -1)
IN-09: Hollingsworth (R) 52 | Watson 45 (Donelly down 9 here, Trump approval +10)
IL-16: Kinzinger (R) 55 | Dady 41 (They have Pritzker beating Ruaner here, lol)
KS-02: Watkins (R) 45 | Davis (D) 44 (Gov is tied)
MI-01: Bergman (R) 54 | Morgan 42 (Whitmer trails by just 3 points)
MI-06: Upton (R) 46 | Longjohn 43 (Longjohn is running several points ahead of Stabenow in the district, but several points behind Whitmer)
NY-01: Zeldin (R) 52 | Gershon (D) 37
OH-02: Wenstrup (R) 52 | Schiller (D) 39 (Brown and Cordray tied with their R opponents here)
WI-06: Grothman (R) 50 | Kohl 48 (Sen and Gov races within two here)

A few more are still coming.

Other 2:

IN-09 (n=541) Trey Hollingsworth (R) 52 Liz Watson @LizForIndiana (D) 45

IA-04 (n=631) J.D. Scholten @Scholten4Iowa (D) 44 Steve King (R) 45



I like the IA-04, the MI-06, the IN-05, and the WI-06. On the other hand, it is Change Research...

[Gass3268]

538 gives Change Research a C+ with a R+.8 bias. So many of these are going to be nearly ties in their model.

[KingSweden]

Change has been right what, once? I’d take their numbers with skepticism irrespective of who they find ahead

[Xing]

Democrats are doing just as well in IA-04 as KS-02? Color me skeptical.

[Gass3268]

Considering how little polling we've gotten out of Indiana, IN-05 +5 Donnelly  and IN-09 -9 Donnelly is not what I was expecting.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

MN-02 Giffords PAC internal

Craig (D) 52
Lewis (R) 43

https://giffords.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Giffords-MN-02-Memo-F10.24.18.pdf