TX-SEN 2020 Megathread: Early Voting

[President Johnson]

I actually hoped the DSCC would back Amanda Edwards. She seems to be good candidate. As of now, I'd support her instead of Hegar.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Hegar attacks Cristina Tzintzún Ramiriez over Iran.

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2020/01/13/the-texas-democratic-senate-race-against-john-cornyn-starting-to-show-spark/

Days later, former Air Force helicopter pilot MJ Hegar dropped a news release blasting incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn, while knocking Tzintzún Ramirez for a fundraising appeal based on Iran’s strike against American troops in Iraq after President Donald Trump’s strike that killed Iranian military leader Gen. Qasem Soleimani.

Tzintzún Ramirez didn’t respond to Hegar, and her aides said she was focused on promoting her criminal justice plan.

But a political action committee that’s supporting her issued a defense of the fundraising appeal on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/FlipTheSenate/status/1215720750574817280

...

The swipe against Tzintzún Ramirez could have been designed to show that she’ll battle Cornyn but is not from the liberal wing of the party. Supporters of Tzintzún Ramirez said Hegar is afraid of the Latina activist.

For her part, Tzintzún Ramirez, 37, must achieve her goal of winning over and driving young voters and minority voters to the polls. She wants to get half of younger voters and 60% of Hispanic voters, a tall order with activist Sema Hernandez of Pasadena and the largely unknown Annie Garcia of Houston also in the contest. Hernandez finished second to former Rep. Beto O’Rourke of El Paso in the 2018 Senate primary. In her favor, Tzintzún Ramirez is running a professional campaign and has the organizing experience to communicate with her base voters.

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1215369564692910086

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

God why didn't Castro run? Probably because the slime at the DSCC pushed him to not run so they could run a mushy middle dem like Hegar instead. Ugh

Still will be very competitive, toss-up

[The Mikado]

God why didn't Castro run? Probably because the slime at the DSCC pushed him to not run so they could run a mushy middle dem like Hegar instead. Ugh

Still will be very competitive, toss-up

Castro didn't run because he dropped out of the Presidential race after the filing deadline had passed because he was that insistent on his stupid vanity bid for President.

He wouldn't have won the primary anyway.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I hope the GOP realizes that they cant take red states for granted, they lost KY and LA and are on the wrong side of impeachment.  Yes, they successful defended red states in 2018, but that was a midterm and impeachment wasnt a factor. There are 12 vulnerable R v 1 Vulnerable D. It's too early for a 2008 nightmare scenario,  but who would of even thought that it could happen again Dems building a filibuster proof majority.

[Epaminondas]

I hope the GOP realizes that they cant take red states for granted, they lost KY and LA and are on the wrong side of impeachment.  Yes, they successful defended red states in 2018, but that was a midterm and impeachment wasnt a factor. There are 12 vulnerable R v 1 Vulnerable D. It's too early for a 2008 nightmare scenario,  but who would of even thought that it could happen again Dems building a filibuster proof majority.

That's true, however could you please write "could have"?

[Roll Roons]

God why didn't Castro run? Probably because the slime at the DSCC pushed him to not run so they could run a mushy middle dem like Hegar instead. Ugh

Still will be very competitive, toss-up

Castro didn't run because he dropped out of the Presidential race after the filing deadline had passed because he was that insistent on his stupid vanity bid for President.

He wouldn't have won the primary anyway.

I think OP is referring to Joaquin Castro. And yes, he would have definitely won the primary given the current state of the field.

[The Mikado]

It would be hilarious if Hegar didn't make the runoff.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

It would be hilarious if Hegar didn't make the runoff.

It being TX, that is entirely possible. I think it will most likely be 2 out of 3 of Hegar, Tzintzun-Ramirez, and West. But Hegar might not necessarily by one of the 2. Each candidate has different bases (and pretty much all of them overlap with some of the other candidates also):

Hegar - establishment vote & White suburbanites, probably some Austin-area regional support
Tzintzun-Ramirez - progressive vote and Hispanics
West - DFW vote and African Americans

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

From the Data for Progress poll, has Cornyn at 50 in the General Election. Which is OK, but not suggestive of his traditional dominating blowout victories.

Cornyn 50
Democratic candidate 42
No one 7
Would not vote 2

[Bidenworth2020]

From the Data for Progress poll, has Cornyn at 50 in the General Election. Which is OK, but not suggestive of his traditional dominating blowout victories.

Cornyn 50
Democratic candidate 42
No one 7
Would not vote 2

Should be noted that the poll has him doing 5-8 worse than Trump against the dem frontrunners (trash poll, but still).

[Continential]

It would be hilarious if Hegar didn't make the runoff.

It being TX, that is entirely possible. I think it will most likely be 2 out of 3 of Hegar, Tzintzun-Ramirez, and West. But Hegar might not necessarily by one of the 2. Each candidate has different bases (and pretty much all of them overlap with some of the other candidates also):

Hegar - establishment vote & White suburbanites, probably some Austin-area regional support
Tzintzun-Ramirez - progressive vote and Hispanics
West - DFW vote and African Americans

What about Bell, I guess that Bell would get some older voters that remember his 2006 run and know only him since the field is horrible.

[Pollster]

It would be hilarious if Hegar didn't make the runoff.

It being TX, that is entirely possible. I think it will most likely be 2 out of 3 of Hegar, Tzintzun-Ramirez, and West. But Hegar might not necessarily by one of the 2. Each candidate has different bases (and pretty much all of them overlap with some of the other candidates also):

Hegar - establishment vote & White suburbanites, probably some Austin-area regional support
Tzintzun-Ramirez - progressive vote and Hispanics
West - DFW vote and African Americans

Amanda Edwards has won city-wide in Houston in both a crowded nonpartisan primary and runoff - no small feat. Her potential to post big numbers in the Houston metro should not be underestimated, as well as er potential to tap into West's African American support.

[Bidenworth2020]

I will say Bell and Ramirez make the runoff.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I will say Bell and Ramirez make the runoff.

[Frenchrepublican]

From the Data for Progress poll, has Cornyn at 50 in the General Election. Which is OK, but not suggestive of his traditional dominating blowout victories.

Cornyn 50
Democratic candidate 42
No one 7
Would not vote 2

Should be noted that the poll has him doing 5-8 worse than Trump against the dem frontrunners (trash poll, but still).

This element should make lose every credibility to this poll, there is no way that Cornyn will underperfom Trump.

[Galeel]

God why didn't Castro run? Probably because the slime at the DSCC pushed him to not run so they could run a mushy middle dem like Hegar instead. Ugh

Still will be very competitive, toss-up

Castro didn't run because he dropped out of the Presidential race after the filing deadline had passed because he was that insistent on his stupid vanity bid for President.

He wouldn't have won the primary anyway.

I think OP is referring to Joaquin Castro. And yes, he would have definitely won the primary given the current state of the field.

The reason Joaquin Castro didn't run is that he likes his powerful seat in the House and doesn't want to give it up to lose a senate race.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

This element should make lose every credibility to this poll, there is no way that Cornyn will underperfom Trump.

Early TX polls are basically just name ID checks, and Cornyn has less name ID than Trump.

[Frenchrepublican]

This element should make lose every credibility to this poll, there is no way that Cornyn will underperfom Trump.

Early TX polls are basically just name ID checks, and Cornyn has less name ID than Trump.

This poll has Trump winning TX 54/40, at the same time Cornyn is winning 50/42, thus this poll implies that there are a significant numbers of Trump but Senate democratic candidate voters.
A such idea is silly

[Epaminondas]

A such idea is silly

Lis donc un peu de littérature au lieu de dilapider tes années de fac ici. Tu t'épargnerais ainsi de telles hideurs.

[windjammer]

A such idea is silly

Lis donc un peu de littérature au lieu de passer ta vie ici. Ainsi tu éviterais de dire de telles hideurs horreurs.

[Epaminondas]

A such idea is silly

Lis donc un peu de littérature au lieu de passer ta vie ici. Ainsi tu éviterais de dire de telles hideurs horreurs.

Incorrect. Chateaubriand often uses the term "hideur", and "dire" is considered inelegant in high writing style.

At any rate you aren't a spammer, so this wasn't intended for you. I apologise if you felt attacked.

[windjammer]

A such idea is silly

Lis donc un peu de littérature au lieu de passer ta vie ici. Ainsi tu éviterais de dire de telles hideurs horreurs.

Incorrect. Chateaubriand often uses the term "hideur", and "dire" is considered inelegant in high writing style.

For goodness' sake, someone could conceive and give birth to a child before the minor election you're talking about takes place. What rush do you derive from such an obsession?

Anyway, I apologise if you felt attacked, this wasn't intended for you.

We are living in the XXIth century and no one talks like that anymore.

I mean, I didn't feel attacked because I'm not Frenchrepublican. But english is simply not his maternal language. It's obvious he's going to make mistakes and he shouldn't be judged negatively because of it.

[Epaminondas]

A such idea is silly

Lis donc un peu de littérature au lieu de passer ta vie ici. Ainsi tu éviterais de dire de telles hideurs horreurs.

Incorrect. Chateaubriand often uses the term "hideur", and "dire" is considered inelegant in high writing style.

At any rate you aren't a spammer, so this wasn't intended for you. I apologise if you felt attacked.

We are living in the XXIth century and no one talks like that anymore.

I mean, I didn't feel attacked because I'm not Frenchrepublican. But english is simply not his maternal language. It's obvious he's going to make mistakes and he shouldn't be judged negatively because of it.

He's a goddamn spammer on these threads, that's the issue. His English is passable.

[Frenchrepublican]

A such idea is silly

Lis donc un peu de littérature au lieu de dilapider tes années de fac ici. Tu t'épargnerais ainsi de telles hideurs.

Ne t’en fais pas, je m’intéresse aussi à la littérature, d’ailleurs en ce moment je lis un super bon bouquin : « Leurs enfants après eux ».
J’essaye de limiter le temps que je passe sur Atlas mais bon parfois c’est un peu compliqué quand y a des sujets qui m’intéressent