TX-SEN 2020 Megathread: Early Voting

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Seven suggestions for Senate 2020

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IMO if Beto doesn't run for Senate again, Hegar is perhaps the best candidate for this. TX-31 is generally a bit more Republican than TX overall, and she did very well in TX-31.

I think Joaquin Castro probably just wants to get seniority in the House, and I doubt he will want to risk his safe seat for an uphill, potentially career-ending run for the Senate. But Joaquin Castro could have good potential if he wants to run. Julian Castro seems to be set on running for President, which I doubt will go very far for him. There is a possibility that he starts running for President and then drops out when it is clear it isn't going anywhere for him and tries to run for Senate, but by that time there will probably be another established candidate for the Senate race.

[lfromnj]

both the castros don't seem like good candidates and are frankly overrated to me IMO
I want to see beto's margin in the 22nd and the 31st to see how strong MJ Hegar and Kulkarni were as Beto was the strongest liberal Texas democrat since Ann Richards.
I think hegar and Beto would be the strongest 2. Both of them severely outperformed expectations. Garbage nyt poll killed Hegar(I doubt she had a last minute surge considering her hype died after that poll)

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

One person who is apparently already running is Sema Hernandez, who ran in 2018 also and lost the Dem Primary to Beto (she got 24% and won some Hispanic border counties probably mostly because of her Spanish surname). She does not seem to be the most serious of potential candidates, but she might win the primary if nobody else with more of a chance runs:

https://www.crowdpac.com/campaigns/388237/sema-hernandez/updates/2982?source_code=campaign-update-link-2982

[Zaybay]

I would say Beto again would be the best bet.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

both the castros don't seem like good candidates and are frankly overrated to me IMO
I want to see beto's margin in the 22nd and the 31st to see how strong MJ Hegar and Kulkarni were as Beto was the strongest liberal Texas democrat since Ann Richards.
I think hegar and Beto would be the strongest 2. Both of them severely outperformed expectations. Garbage nyt poll killed Hegar(I doubt she had a last minute surge considering her hype died after that poll)

Yeah, that NYT poll was an unfortunate own-goal for Hegar. She tweeted it out and got her supporters to vote for TX-31, which is how it got polled in the first place. Otherwise it wouldn't have been polled and she may have ended up doing a teeny bit better from getting a few more donations perhaps.

[lfromnj]

One person who is apparently already running is Sema Hernandez, who ran in 2018 also and lost the Dem Primary to Beto (she got 24% and won some Hispanic border counties probably mostly because of her Spanish surname). She does not seem to be the most serious of potential candidates, but she might win the primary if nobody else with more of a chance runs:

https://www.crowdpac.com/campaigns/388237/sema-hernandez/updates/2982?source_code=campaign-update-link-2982

If democrats screw up a golden oppurtunity in Texas with Donald Trump on the ballot(at this point Im writing off a double digit Texas win and Hays county 95 percent flips in 2020(even Valdez won it).
They need to focus on a suburban candidate to boost turnout to win that state house. Anything else would be political malpractice after having the most energized democratic base in Texas for 30 years.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I would say Beto again would be the best bet.

One person who is apparently already running is Sema Hernandez, who ran in 2018 also and lost the Dem Primary to Beto (she got 24% and won some Hispanic border counties probably mostly because of her Spanish surname). She does not seem to be the most serious of potential candidates, but she might win the primary if nobody else with more of a chance runs:

https://www.crowdpac.com/campaigns/388237/sema-hernandez/updates/2982?source_code=campaign-update-link-2982

If democrats screw up a golden oppurtunity in Texas with Donald Trump on the ballot(at this point Im writing off a double digit Texas win and Hays county 95 percent flips in 2020(even Valdez won it).
They need to focus on a suburban candidate to boost turnout to win that state house. Anything else would be political malpractice after having the most energized democratic base in Texas for 30 years.

No sane person could disagree with either of you, I don't think. Beto is clearly the best option if he wants to run, and the TX Democratic Party should basically just disband if the best they can do is Sema Hernandez (surely someone else will run).

[ag]

At this point it should be O'Rourke. He has both the name recognition and the organization that would be a pity to waste. Him running would have the additional benefit of having Republicans work for Texas in the presidential race as well - I mean, if this is the case where reverse coattails might happen, it is this one.

[Oryxslayer]

If O'Rourke isn't running, it's because he hopped in the presidential clown car, and if he does there's a a reasonable chance he wins/becomes VP, so Beto would still be on the TX ticket.

[nicholas.slaydon]

At this point it should be O'Rourke. He has both the name recognition and the organization that would be a pity to waste. Him running would have the additional benefit of having Republicans work for Texas in the presidential race as well - I mean, if this is the case where reverse coattails might happen, it is this one.

[MAINEiac4434]

I would say Beto again would be the best bet.

Beto's gonna be too busy running for President

[KingSweden]

Is Cornyn for sure running after being termed out as Whip?

[Badger]

I would say Beto again would be the best bet.

Beto's gonna be too busy running for President

Not to mention John cornyn is a tougher Contender than Ted Cruz. He falls somewhere between Abbott and cruise on the popularity meter, possibly a smidge closer to Abbott level. O'Rourke shouldn't be foolish and blow political capital on a race that he'll be even more likely to lose notwithstanding two more years of demographic changes.

[Lourdes]

MJ Hegar would be a great candidate.

[KingSweden]

Is Cornyn for sure running after being termed out as Whip?

[Terry the Fat Shark]

The Castros aren't good candidates, especially Julian. Julian doesn't even speak good spanish and he is hispanic!

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Is Cornyn for sure running after being termed out as Whip?

He said the other day he is running

[MillennialModerate]

Serious question.... how does someone get up for this race?

If Beto couldn’t do it against CRUZ. How is someone else gonna do it against Cornyn?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Serious question.... how does someone get up for this race?

If Beto couldn’t do it against CRUZ. How is someone else gonna do it against Cornyn?

The main advantage would be that it is a Presidential year, which means higher turnout. If Beto had better turnout in the Rio Grande Valley in particular, he would have come even closer (and maybe even won, though I still probably think lost narrowly).

Also Beto will have confirmed that TX can indeed be competitive, so that means whoever runs (Beto or not) is more likely to be taken seriously early, and voters will pay more attention and be more likely to think that the race actually is competitive.

With Beto the last time around, for some marginal propensity voters who normally don't vote because they don't think it is competitive, actually voting for him was something of an act of faith. But in the future, they have more reason to think races could be close enough for their votes to actually matter.

I am not saying that this would necessarily be enough to win or that it would necessarily be easier than beating Cruz in 2018, just that these are factors that would help relative to 2018.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TX is not going Democratic in a Presidential Year.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Also, Cornyn has similar approvals to Cruz (albeit Cornyn is a bit more unknown)

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Also, Cornyn has similar approvals to Cruz (albeit Cornyn is a bit more unknown)

Yeah, I would be really interested in seeing some early polls of TX-SEN at the moment. It is possible Beto might be tied or even leading against Cornyn at the moment simply because he probably has slightly higher name recognition. I could see a Cornyn lead, but I wouldn't be shocked if there were not one in a current high quality poll that had a turnout model that took into account that it was a Presidential year and how high turnout was in 2018.

[Calthrina950]

Cornyn is clearly favored, and I don't think he would have as difficult a time as Cruz. Cruz's personal unpopularity played a large role in O'Rourke's relative success this year. And given that it will be 2020, a presidential election year, I think that would give an advantage to Republicans as well.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TX isn't voting for Beto or another Dem. That's why Castro is running for president

[Zaybay]

The problem with pegging how strong/weak Cornyn is is just how unknown he is to TX. With Ted Cruz, you know what his approval is, a slight net positive(yes, it is positive, he is not actually that unpopular). With Cornyn, you can get such a large range, from Morning Consult's +20, to a couple TX pollster's -20. If there was a senator to draw parallels to, it would be Bill Nelson of FL. Both are old, rather poor campaigners, staples of the state, and rather unknown to the state.

Personally, I see him as the weaker of the two. Unlike Cruz, who is able to energize turnout for his base, Cornyn is just kinda there, not having a large presence. He has never had a tough election in his entire career(wow! Sounds so familiar) and has had campaigning trouble in the past. Not to mention, its a presidential election, meaning Hispanic turnout will not crater as it usually does in the state.

If Cornyn were to face Beto again, I would have to tip the scale to the young former congressman, having name rec, money, and stardom to take him out. Anyone else, it would probably be an uphill battle, but not an unwinnable one.