TX-SEN 2020 Megathread: Early Voting

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

My gut tells me we're going to have months of everyone slamming Hegar as an awful candidate and then her margin will be nearly identical to Biden's in November. Hegar is far from an A-tier recruit, but Cornyn is hardly an abnormally strong incumbent.

I very much agree with you. But unless she pulls out a win, I think she's damned if she does & damned if she don't.

If she loses by like 10% and underperforms Biden, she'll be considered a horrible candidate for blowing a potentially competitive race and we'll be left wondering how the race would've looked if Beto ran.

If she loses but beats expectations, performing similarly to Beto '18 and/or matches Bidens numbers, she'll be considered a horrible candidate for not getting the job done and we'll be left wondering how the race would've looked if Beto ran.

In other words (really, one), sexism?

[wbrocks67]

Glad to see the wheels are turning now

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1285601610614349825?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Glad to see the wheels are turning now

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1285601610614349825?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

Glad to see the swift fundraising. Better late than never. I hope shes able to close the funding gap by Labor Day. She certainly needs it more than Any McGrath or Jaime Harrison

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe R

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1290645098527633414?s=20

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1290645098527633414?s=20

It really appears that Hegar can do this. She just needs a lot of help.

[Mr. Smith]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1290645098527633414?s=20

It really appears that Hegar can do this. She just needs a lot of help.

It's a bummer that she's no Beto on this. It'd be nice to have a dark-horse that draws in the money and frees up room for others.

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1293958852510208002

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1290645098527633414?s=20

It really appears that Hegar can do this. She just needs a lot of help.

You mean Castro, Beto has bowed never to run a campaign ever again, since Fox news made a mockery of him

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Various minor party candidates and independents have failed to qualify here, but the Green Party will be joining the Libertarians on this ballot in November.

Edit: one independent write-in candidate also qualified before the local write-in deadline.
Edit 2: I was wrong. The Greens aren't on the ballot after all.

[Indy Texas]

I just find it funny how 2020s Texas election maps are starting to resemble 1970s Texas election maps but with the parties flipped. The minor party wins the big urban counties plus the rural counties in a specific region of the state (the Panhandle for 1970s Republicans; South Texas for 2020s Democrats).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I just find it funny how 2020s Texas election maps are starting to resemble 1970s Texas election maps but with the parties flipped. The minor party wins the big urban counties plus the rural counties in a specific region of the state (the Panhandle for 1970s Republicans; South Texas for 2020s Democrats).

Yes, Ds can are winning Congressional districts but Fed elections in Senate and Prez are still R with Hegar

[Pollster]

MJ Hegar went up today with a substantial ad buy running this ad.

For all the talk of the constant campaign cycle and how Trump has changed campaigns, it's remarkable how many candidates this cycle appear to be following the classical & conventional post-Labor Day blitz model.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The Texas Supreme Court has ruled 3 Green candidates shall be restored to the ballot:  their Senate nominee David B. Collins, their TX-21 nominee and their Railroad Commissioner nominee.

Corrected versions of mail-in ballots will now need to be re-sent to voters who've already been sent ballots which are now incorrect.

[SnowLabrador]

I think Cornyn will hang on, but by a much narrower margin than in 2014.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ds are focused only AZ, CO, GA, ME and NC for 52/48 Senate, all the other races are R leaning

[Indy Texas]

The Texas Supreme Court has ruled 3 Green candidates shall be restored to the ballot:  their Senate nominee David B. Collins, their TX-21 nominee and their Railroad Commissioner nominee.

Corrected versions of mail-in ballots will now need to be re-sent to voters who've already been sent ballots which are now incorrect.

Tom Wakely for the 21st Congressional District

Tom Wakely lost the 2018 Democratic primary for governor, where he ran an unhinged one note anti-Trump campaign; he was the Democratic nominee for TX-21 in 2016.

Like most Greens, he's a leftist grifter who's serving as a useful idiot for Republicans.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

The Texas Supreme Court has ruled 3 Green candidates shall be restored to the ballot:  their Senate nominee David B. Collins, their TX-21 nominee and their Railroad Commissioner nominee.

Corrected versions of mail-in ballots will now need to be re-sent to voters who've already been sent ballots which are now incorrect.

Tom Wakely for the 21st Congressional District

Tom Wakely lost the 2018 Democratic primary for governor, where he ran an unhinged one note anti-Trump campaign; he was the Democratic nominee for TX-21 in 2016.

Like most Greens, he's a leftist grifter who's serving as a useful idiot for Republicans.

How is it the DSA are so much better at fielding leftist candidates than the Greens? And in a shorter period of time too

[Ferguson97]

The Texas Supreme Court has ruled 3 Green candidates shall be restored to the ballot:  their Senate nominee David B. Collins, their TX-21 nominee and their Railroad Commissioner nominee.

Corrected versions of mail-in ballots will now need to be re-sent to voters who've already been sent ballots which are now incorrect.

Tom Wakely for the 21st Congressional District

Tom Wakely lost the 2018 Democratic primary for governor, where he ran an unhinged one note anti-Trump campaign; he was the Democratic nominee for TX-21 in 2016.

Like most Greens, he's a leftist grifter who's serving as a useful idiot for Republicans.

How is it the DSA are so much better at fielding leftist candidates than the Greens? And in a shorter period of time too

Because DSA genuinely want to make change and aren't hacks like Greens

[JRP1994]

For some reason Cornyn is running at least one ad in Georgia. Just saw one on ESPN (Augusta media market)

[VAR]

Hegar raises $300K in 10 hours.

[Lognog]

Hegar raises $300K in 10 hours.

shocked so many people are treating this race like it's likely bordering safe.

Totally lean R imo, and at the prez level toss up

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

HEGAR is too liberal to win this seat, move on to MT

[Pollster]

We're probably in for some massive fundraising totals in the next week or so.

https://twitter.com/TexasTribune/status/1311400176741953538?s=20

[Roll Roons]

We're probably in for some massive fundraising totals in the next week or so.

https://twitter.com/TexasTribune/status/1311400176741953538?s=20

Wonder how much was in the last two weeks alone.