TX-SEN 2020 Megathread: Early Voting

[Lognog]

Cornyn raised $3.5 million in Q2.

That’s pitiful.

Yeah, but he has a great amount of COH compared to either of his opponents.

Also the amount of money to really contest this race is insane

[Landslide Lyndon]

So neither Cornyn nor Hegar are raising huge amounts of money especially for a race and state like this.

Maybe she'll start raising some serious dough after she wins the primary, like Eastman and Finello.

[wbrocks67]

So neither Cornyn nor Hegar are raising huge amounts of money especially for a race and state like this.

Maybe she'll start raising some serious dough after she wins the primary, like Eastman and Finello.

Yeah, I think if Hegar was able to raise $1.7M pre-primary, she could probably start rolling a bit after the primary.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

I voted for West
--------------------------

West won the Dallas County EV 71-29, Harris County EV 51-49

[Oryxslayer]

Initial votes are 55-45 for West. Won Dallas by 71-29, Tarrant 59-40, Harris 51-49, and Fort Bend 52-48. Heger won Gavelston and Denton by 51-49, suggesting West's numbers in the metro are stopping at the suburban line.

Heger's 65-35 in Bexar smells like signs of things to come in the south, and West's net votes from his strongholds don't seem like enough to outvote the Travis metro.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

What's a good site to follow Texas primary results?

[Storr]

What's a good site to follow Texas primary results?

I prefer to look at the source, though the UI is really odd: https://results.texas-election.com/landing-page

[Mr. Smith]

What's a good site to follow Texas primary results?

Not good per se, but Politico lacks the paywall.

Hegar is slowly catching up, and I expect her to overtake West in Harris soon.

Would be surprised if West actually keeps his lead.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Thanks for both of the sites!

[Oryxslayer]

Race is essentially tied in the count right now, except no El Paso, Hildago county, or more importantly Austin to boost Heger vote as expected. It's her race to lose.

[Mexican Wolf]

Hegar just overtook West on Politico, leading by .6%.

[Brittain33]

Cornyn raised $3.5 million in Q2.

Less than Joni Ernst.

[Continential]

Hopefully Siegel wins over Gandhi.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Hopefully Siegel wins over Gandhi.

Why do you support a gangster over a freedom fighter?

[libertpaulian]

Hopefully Siegel wins over Gandhi.

Why?  Given that Ghandi's prospective district is diversifying, wouldn't he be a good nominee?

[Continential]

Hopefully Siegel wins over Gandhi.

Why?  Given that Ghandi's prospective district is diversifying, wouldn't he be a good nominee?

Siegel is more progressive but if Gandhi wins, I'd be fine with it.

[Brittain33]

Gene Kelly is still alive at age 94!

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Hopefully Siegel wins over Gandhi.

Why?  Given that Ghandi's prospective district is diversifying, wouldn't he be a good nominee?

Siegel may well have better name ID/campaign infrastructure etc as 2018's nominee.

[DINGO Joe]

DDHQ has called it for Hegar, though she's only up by 35000 votes, map does look favorable for her though.

[Mexican Wolf]

I know this is probably because Texas has so many counties, a good number of which have very small populations, but it's amazing in elections like this and the 2018 Senate election how many more counties the winner carries than the loser despite the close margin.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1283227281473839105

[n1240]

DDHQ has called it for Hegar, though she's only up by 35000 votes, map does look favorable for her though.

Hegar is doing significantly better in election day voting, generally well over 10% better than early vote combined margin.

[Calthrina950]

I know this is probably because Texas has so many counties, a good number of which have very small populations, but it's amazing in elections like this and the 2018 Senate election how many more counties the winner carries than the loser despite the close margin.

This is a very valid observation. I remember reading a FiveThirtyEight article on the results of the 2018 Senate race. According to that article, Beto O'Rourke won the five largest counties (Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar, Travis) by 800,000 votes, while Ted Cruz won the remaining 249 counties by 1 million votes. Cruz's overall margin was 200,000, so the massive majorities which he garnered throughout much of rural and exurban Texas were enough for him to barely overcome O'Rourke's urban and suburban strength. However, as the state continues to trend left and as the urban areas explode in population, such majorities will not be enough for Republicans. And we may see that with the presidential race this year.

[libertpaulian]

I know this is probably because Texas has so many counties, a good number of which have very small populations, but it's amazing in elections like this and the 2018 Senate election how many more counties the winner carries than the loser despite the close margin.

This is a very valid observation. I remember reading a FiveThirtyEight article on the results of the 2018 Senate race. According to that article, Beto O'Rourke won the five largest counties (Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar, San Antonio) by 800,000 votes, while Ted Cruz won the remaining 249 counties by 1 million votes. Cruz's overall margin was 200,000, so the massive majorities which he garnered throughout much of rural and exurban Texas were enough for him to barely overcome O'Rourke's urban and suburban strength. However, as the state continues to trend left and as the urban areas explode in population, such majorities will not be enough for Republicans. And we may see that with the presidential race this year.

And Biden may likely do a tiny bit better than Beto and Hillary did among rural and exurban voters.

[ajc0918]

https://twitter.com/averyjaffe/status/1283245149053767684?s=21