TX-SEN 2020 Megathread: Early Voting

[Kuumo]

Note how Cruz basically got his final percentage, if Cornyn gets 48%, I don't think he wins

This is a good point. Democrats are just as likely to overperform polling as Republicans in Texas. I only rate TX-SEN as Lean R, and my hot take is that Hegar is actually more likely to win than Greenfield in IA.

[riceowl]

Note how Cruz basically got his final percentage, if Cornyn gets 48%, I don't think he wins

This is a good point. Democrats are just as likely to overperform polling as Republicans in Texas. I only rate TX-SEN as Lean R, and my hot take is that Hegar is actually more likely to win than Greenfield in IA.

Eh. Anecdotally, I know a bunch of Biden/Cornyn voters. Also anecdotally, no one is *excited* about Hegar. I like her, and I've voted for her, and my friends have too, but then they're like "So...if she wins...we get a Democrat in the Senate for 6 years.......and it's her??"

[Kuumo]

Note how Cruz basically got his final percentage, if Cornyn gets 48%, I don't think he wins

This is a good point. Democrats are just as likely to overperform polling as Republicans in Texas. I only rate TX-SEN as Lean R, and my hot take is that Hegar is actually more likely to win than Greenfield in IA.

Eh. Anecdotally, I know a bunch of Biden/Cornyn voters. Also anecdotally, no one is *excited* about Hegar. I like her, and I've voted for her, and my friends have too, but then they're like "So...if she wins...we get a Democrat in the Senate for 6 years.......and it's her??"

Sad. I really wish that Beto or Julian Castro had run. They would probably be running even with Biden.

[riceowl]

Note how Cruz basically got his final percentage, if Cornyn gets 48%, I don't think he wins

This is a good point. Democrats are just as likely to overperform polling as Republicans in Texas. I only rate TX-SEN as Lean R, and my hot take is that Hegar is actually more likely to win than Greenfield in IA.

Eh. Anecdotally, I know a bunch of Biden/Cornyn voters. Also anecdotally, no one is *excited* about Hegar. I like her, and I've voted for her, and my friends have too, but then they're like "So...if she wins...we get a Democrat in the Senate for 6 years.......and it's her??"

Sad. I really wish that Beto or Julian Castro had run. They would probably be running even with Biden.

People were very excited about Beto in 18. Same spirit just isn't there. I'll be pleasantly surprised if she can pull it off on the coattails.

[MargieCat]

Note how Cruz basically got his final percentage, if Cornyn gets 48%, I don't think he wins

This is a good point. Democrats are just as likely to overperform polling as Republicans in Texas. I only rate TX-SEN as Lean R, and my hot take is that Hegar is actually more likely to win than Greenfield in IA.

Eh. Anecdotally, I know a bunch of Biden/Cornyn voters. Also anecdotally, no one is *excited* about Hegar. I like her, and I've voted for her, and my friends have too, but then they're like "So...if she wins...we get a Democrat in the Senate for 6 years.......and it's her??"

Sad. I really wish that Beto or Julian Castro had run. They would probably be running even with Biden.

People were very excited about Beto in 18. Same spirit just isn't there. I'll be pleasantly surprised if she can pull it off on the coattails.

Cornyn is not hated the same way as Cruz. That's not to say that Hegar won't win. But hatred of Ted Cruz helped Beto. Abbott performed much better than Cruz on the same ticket.

Of course Abbott in 2022 might have a harder battle than he had 2 years ago due to his handling of COVID and his voter suppression.

[Calthrina950]

Note how Cruz basically got his final percentage, if Cornyn gets 48%, I don't think he wins

This is a good point. Democrats are just as likely to overperform polling as Republicans in Texas. I only rate TX-SEN as Lean R, and my hot take is that Hegar is actually more likely to win than Greenfield in IA.

Eh. Anecdotally, I know a bunch of Biden/Cornyn voters. Also anecdotally, no one is *excited* about Hegar. I like her, and I've voted for her, and my friends have too, but then they're like "So...if she wins...we get a Democrat in the Senate for 6 years.......and it's her??"

Sad. I really wish that Beto or Julian Castro had run. They would probably be running even with Biden.

People were very excited about Beto in 18. Same spirit just isn't there. I'll be pleasantly surprised if she can pull it off on the coattails.

Cornyn is not hated the same way as Cruz. That's not to say that Hegar won't win. But hatred of Ted Cruz helped Beto. Abbott performed much better than Cruz on the same ticket.

Of course Abbott in 2022 might have a harder battle than he had 2 years ago due to his handling of COVID and his voter suppression.

Isn't it true that Abbott is already facing a primary challenge from the right because of the mask mandate he imposed a few months ago? I wouldn't be surprised if he's in for a tougher fight during the next cycle, though given that it will probably be a Biden midterm, he should be favored for reelection.

[MargieCat]

Note how Cruz basically got his final percentage, if Cornyn gets 48%, I don't think he wins

This is a good point. Democrats are just as likely to overperform polling as Republicans in Texas. I only rate TX-SEN as Lean R, and my hot take is that Hegar is actually more likely to win than Greenfield in IA.

Eh. Anecdotally, I know a bunch of Biden/Cornyn voters. Also anecdotally, no one is *excited* about Hegar. I like her, and I've voted for her, and my friends have too, but then they're like "So...if she wins...we get a Democrat in the Senate for 6 years.......and it's her??"

Sad. I really wish that Beto or Julian Castro had run. They would probably be running even with Biden.

People were very excited about Beto in 18. Same spirit just isn't there. I'll be pleasantly surprised if she can pull it off on the coattails.

Cornyn is not hated the same way as Cruz. That's not to say that Hegar won't win. But hatred of Ted Cruz helped Beto. Abbott performed much better than Cruz on the same ticket.

Of course Abbott in 2022 might have a harder battle than he had 2 years ago due to his handling of COVID and his voter suppression.

Isn't it true that Abbott is already facing a primary challenge from the right because of the mask mandate he imposed a few months ago? I wouldn't be surprised if he's in for a tougher fight during the next cycle, though given that it will probably be a Biden midterm, he should be favored for reelection.

He's going to have primary challengers should he choose to run again.

Supposedly, some far-right cowboy comedian name Chad Prather was talking up a big game but he is a joke.

Then there is Allen West who is a sociopath.

If Paxton and Patrick seek re-election the democrats will show up in full force. I doubt Paxton can seek re-election at this point.

[Calthrina950]

Note how Cruz basically got his final percentage, if Cornyn gets 48%, I don't think he wins

This is a good point. Democrats are just as likely to overperform polling as Republicans in Texas. I only rate TX-SEN as Lean R, and my hot take is that Hegar is actually more likely to win than Greenfield in IA.

Eh. Anecdotally, I know a bunch of Biden/Cornyn voters. Also anecdotally, no one is *excited* about Hegar. I like her, and I've voted for her, and my friends have too, but then they're like "So...if she wins...we get a Democrat in the Senate for 6 years.......and it's her??"

Sad. I really wish that Beto or Julian Castro had run. They would probably be running even with Biden.

People were very excited about Beto in 18. Same spirit just isn't there. I'll be pleasantly surprised if she can pull it off on the coattails.

Cornyn is not hated the same way as Cruz. That's not to say that Hegar won't win. But hatred of Ted Cruz helped Beto. Abbott performed much better than Cruz on the same ticket.

Of course Abbott in 2022 might have a harder battle than he had 2 years ago due to his handling of COVID and his voter suppression.

Isn't it true that Abbott is already facing a primary challenge from the right because of the mask mandate he imposed a few months ago? I wouldn't be surprised if he's in for a tougher fight during the next cycle, though given that it will probably be a Biden midterm, he should be favored for reelection.

He's going to have primary challengers should he choose to run again.

Supposedly, some far-right cowboy comedian name Chad Prather was talking up a big game but he is a joke.

Then there is Allen West who is a sociopath.

If Paxton and Patrick seek re-election the democrats will show up in full force. I doubt Paxton can seek re-election at this point.

Judging on the outcome of his corruption scandal, Paxton may not even be in office by the time 2022 comes upon us.

[Indy Texas]

Note how Cruz basically got his final percentage, if Cornyn gets 48%, I don't think he wins

This is a good point. Democrats are just as likely to overperform polling as Republicans in Texas. I only rate TX-SEN as Lean R, and my hot take is that Hegar is actually more likely to win than Greenfield in IA.

Eh. Anecdotally, I know a bunch of Biden/Cornyn voters. Also anecdotally, no one is *excited* about Hegar. I like her, and I've voted for her, and my friends have too, but then they're like "So...if she wins...we get a Democrat in the Senate for 6 years.......and it's her??"

TBF, when the GOP finally broke through in Texas and elected a senator, it was John Tower - a diminutive college professor who'd lost a House race and a Senate race before and was regarded as a retread Generic Republican. And he ended up being in the Senate for four terms.

[Calthrina950]

Note how Cruz basically got his final percentage, if Cornyn gets 48%, I don't think he wins

This is a good point. Democrats are just as likely to overperform polling as Republicans in Texas. I only rate TX-SEN as Lean R, and my hot take is that Hegar is actually more likely to win than Greenfield in IA.

Eh. Anecdotally, I know a bunch of Biden/Cornyn voters. Also anecdotally, no one is *excited* about Hegar. I like her, and I've voted for her, and my friends have too, but then they're like "So...if she wins...we get a Democrat in the Senate for 6 years.......and it's her??"

TBF, when the GOP finally broke through in Texas and elected a senator, it was John Tower - a diminutive college professor who'd lost a House race and a Senate race before and was regarded as a retread Generic Republican. And he ended up being in the Senate for four terms.

And ironically enough, this is the same Senate seat that was once held by Tower. It would be astonishing if Hegar took it back for the Democrats tonight, since it has been in Republican hands for almost sixty years, since Tower won the 1961 special election. It's also ironic that this was Lyndon Johnson's Senate seat before he became Vice-President.

[lfromnj]

Why is he so bitter that he can't even get himself to say her name?

I mean, it kinda makes sense. This guy has been fighting for Democrats in the Texas trenches for decades and just as his state is finally turning blue some rando who's big political accomplishment is losing a house race beats him in a senate primary. Not that he shouldn't be 110% behind Hegar anyway.

Lets not even forget Hegar voted for Romney and Mccain.

[Hope For A New Era]

Why is he so bitter that he can't even get himself to say her name?

I mean, it kinda makes sense. This guy has been fighting for Democrats in the Texas trenches for decades and just as his state is finally turning blue some rando who's big political accomplishment is losing a house race beats him in a senate primary. Not that he shouldn't be 110% behind Hegar anyway.

Lets not even forget Hegar voted for Romney and Mccain.

That helps her campaign. These suburban wine moms look at her and see themselves, and they say "I didn't leave the Republican Party, the Republican Party left me." And then they vote straight-ticket D.

[lfromnj]

Why is he so bitter that he can't even get himself to say her name?

I mean, it kinda makes sense. This guy has been fighting for Democrats in the Texas trenches for decades and just as his state is finally turning blue some rando who's big political accomplishment is losing a house race beats him in a senate primary. Not that he shouldn't be 110% behind Hegar anyway.

Lets not even forget Hegar voted for Romney and Mccain.

That helps her campaign. These suburban wine moms look at her and see themselves, and they say "I didn't leave the Republican Party, the Republican Party left me." And then they vote straight-ticket D.

Im talking about the salt from old minority Democrats.

[Indy Texas]

Judging on the outcome of his corruption scandal, Paxton may not even be in office by the time 2022 comes upon us.

These cases can drag on for some time. And since the AG is a separately elected office, Paxton doesn't "answer to" Abbott and cannot be forced to resign. No idea if there's any mechanism for, say, the State Senate to "impeach" the AG and given how right-wing the Senate Republicans are (also, Paxton's wife is a state senator), it would be a nonstarter anyway.

Republicans are a grievance party now and Paxton can claim he's being unfairly treated by the Liberal Deep State. George P. Bush is foolish if he thinks he can successfully primary Paxton in 2022, as he seems to be preparing to do.

[Indy Texas]

The Mayor of Houston is arriving at the polls via horse-drawn carriage, as is custom.

https://twitter.com/brittanybritto/status/1323670554373664768?s=20