TX-SEN 2020 Megathread: Early Voting

[Gracile]

It's a pity Hegar doesn't have Amy McGrath's money.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It's a pity [almost anyone else] doesn't have Amy McGrath's money.

[Pollster]

Terrific news for Democrats if this is the GOP's closing message.

https://twitter.com/JohnCornyn/status/1311612005829226498?s=20

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Terrific news for Democrats if this is the GOP's closing message.

https://twitter.com/JohnCornyn/status/1311612005829226498?s=20

Tillis tried to mitigate for this by putting up a bill that would reinstate certain ACA protections for preexisting conditions in the event that the Supreme Court struck them down.

Cruz blocked it.

[Lognog]

Terrific news for Democrats if this is the GOP's closing message.

https://twitter.com/JohnCornyn/status/1311612005829226498?s=20

Why do people think he's going to oust run Trump by 5 points

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Terrific news for Democrats if this is the GOP's closing message.

https://twitter.com/JohnCornyn/status/1311612005829226498?s=20

Why do people think he's going to oust run Trump by 5 points

It's not that he'll get more votes but that voters less familiar with Hegar will leave their ballots blank. Cornyn is kind of anonymous for an incumbent but still much more well-known than her.

N.B. I think the overperformance is likely to be considerably smaller than 5%

[Ferguson97]

Terrific news for Democrats if this is the GOP's closing message.

https://twitter.com/JohnCornyn/status/1311612005829226498?s=20

Are they TRYING to lose?

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1312066905751126017

[Landslide Lyndon]

You hate to see it.

https://twitter.com/stew_boss/status/1313216405333041152

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

"Flawless Cornyn will outperform Trump by 10%"

[MT Treasurer]

Why do people think he's going to oust run Trump by 5 points

This forum always overstates the importance/impact of "candidate quality" (while failing to comprehend how subjective the assessment of a candidate's "quality" is) while ignoring or downplaying the importance of fundamentals (trends, national environment, partisanship, partisan lean of a state/district, base enthusiasm, etc.). It’ll happen again in 2022 when Republicans nominate supposedly "weak" or "overrated" candidates in IA, MO, WI, PA, etc.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Why do people think he's going to oust run Trump by 5 points

This forum always overstates the importance/impact of "candidate quality" (while failing to comprehend how subjective the assessment of a candidate's "quality" is) while ignoring or downplaying the importance of fundamentals (trends, national environment, partisanship, partisan lean of a state/district, base enthusiasm, etc.). It’ll happen again in 2022 when Republicans nominate supposedly "weak" or "overrated" candidates in IA, MO, WI, PA, etc.

It's weird though when it comes to TX. Cornyns only quality is literally "Unknown Republican".

For TX, it's like 5% candidate quality & 95% "Texas will never ever ever be favorable to Democrats this year but maybe in another 4-8 years" level of anti-fundamentals

[wbrocks67]

This can only help her tbh

https://twitter.com/BenjaminEW/status/1313571181321236480

[KaiserDave]

This will clearly help her

[Landslide Lyndon]

Texas is teeming with Romney-Clinton voters. How do you think it became a swing state in a matter of four years?

[Suburbia]

Likely R.

TX Dems should look at Cruz in '24.

[Calthrina950]

This will clearly help her

I think this exemplifies Texas's dramatic shift towards the Democrats in recent years. Hegar, a college-educated suburban white woman, is exactly the kind of voter that Republicans have been shedding in recent years, and Williamson County-where she is from-is a formerly Republican stronghold that is now moving into the Democratic column. This should help Hegar win votes from other suburbanites who have clearly soured on their old party.

[Crane]

This can only help her tbh

https://twitter.com/BenjaminEW/status/1313571181321236480

Yuck. Why does the Democratic Party keep nominating Republicans in red states? If you want a Republican, you aren't going to vote for Republican-lite, you'll vote for the actual Republican on the ballot.

MJ Loser is just as pathetic as Amy McGrift. Hope both of their careers are over after this election and we start nominating people who can actually win.

[KaiserDave]

This can only help her tbh

https://twitter.com/BenjaminEW/status/1313571181321236480

Yuck. Why does the Democratic Party keep nominating Republicans in red states? If you want a Republican, you aren't going to vote for Republican-lite, you'll vote for the actual Republican on the ballot.

MJ Loser is just as pathetic as Amy McGrift. Hope both of their careers are over after this election and we start nominating people who can actually win.

How do you explain Joe Manchin?

[Crane]

It's a pity Hegar doesn't have Amy McGrath's money.

Yeah, and? 13 million in one quarter isn't enough? How exactly could she make her case better with twice the money?

She's another moderate hero who offers nothing of substance against the Republican incumbent. She will lose even if Biden wins the state, which if it happens will be by the skin of his teeth.

[Crane]

This can only help her tbh

https://twitter.com/BenjaminEW/status/1313571181321236480

Yuck. Why does the Democratic Party keep nominating Republicans in red states? If you want a Republican, you aren't going to vote for Republican-lite, you'll vote for the actual Republican on the ballot.

MJ Loser is just as pathetic as Amy McGrift. Hope both of their careers are over after this election and we start nominating people who can actually win.

How do you explain Joe Manchin?

West Virginia is weird. But being a moderate in a red state has failed to save, in the last election alone, McCaskill, Donnelly, Heitkamp, and Nelson.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This can only help her tbh

https://twitter.com/BenjaminEW/status/1313571181321236480

Yuck. Why does the Democratic Party keep nominating Republicans in red states? If you want a Republican, you aren't going to vote for Republican-lite, you'll vote for the actual Republican on the ballot.

MJ Loser is just as pathetic as Amy McGrift. Hope both of their careers are over after this election and we start nominating people who can actually win.

How do you explain Joe Manchin?

West Virginia is weird. But being a moderate in a red state has failed to save, in the last election alone, McCaskill, Donnelly, Heitkamp, and Nelson.

Sinema? Tester?

Even though all 4 of the senators listed above lost, they significantly outperformed the House PV in their state, with the exception of Nelson, who faced a strong challenger and wasn't a very good campaigner himself.

Also yeah; if a large portion of progressives abstain or vote 3rd party, the moderate D isn't going to win, and it works the other way around too.

I understand you may not agree with Joe and other more mainstream Ds on everything, but you can't just vote 3rd party and say "welp we lost this isn't working" when you were literally contributing to his loss. If you want to go ahead and vote Green, that's your right, you do you, but you get what you get nd you don't get upset at the end of the day

[Canis]

This can only help her tbh

https://twitter.com/BenjaminEW/status/1313571181321236480

I have absolutely no problem with this lol people change politically thats just how it goes and this will definitely help her 

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I'm not sure it will, although I don't think it has a huge amount of downside all by itself. There are ways in which certain kinds of political "moderation" can and do help, especially when one's own party doesn't have an occupant in the White House, but saying, "Take my word for it - I voted for a guy some of you used to like in a secret ballot years ago," doesn't seem guaranteed to be especially helpful. It's fundamentally different from Jim Justice endorsing Trump in 2016. Even in TX, "Romney Republicans" weren't really a thing; although there are people who voted for Romney, the GOP nominees for whom there are lingering affection (in certain constituencies) are HW, W and Reagan.

It'd be one thing if this was a response to oppo research; she could burnish her credentials by being proud of what they were attacking her for, but that's not it. It just seems like (probably) wasted airtime to me.

[Crane]

This can only help her tbh

https://twitter.com/BenjaminEW/status/1313571181321236480

Yuck. Why does the Democratic Party keep nominating Republicans in red states? If you want a Republican, you aren't going to vote for Republican-lite, you'll vote for the actual Republican on the ballot.

MJ Loser is just as pathetic as Amy McGrift. Hope both of their careers are over after this election and we start nominating people who can actually win.

How do you explain Joe Manchin?

West Virginia is weird. But being a moderate in a red state has failed to save, in the last election alone, McCaskill, Donnelly, Heitkamp, and Nelson.

Sinema? Tester?

Even though all 4 of the senators listed above lost, they significantly outperformed the House PV in their state, with the exception of Nelson, who faced a strong challenger and wasn't a very good campaigner himself.

Also yeah; if a large portion of progressives abstain or vote 3rd party, the moderate D isn't going to win, and it works the other way around too.

I understand you may not agree with Joe and other more mainstream Ds on everything, but you can't just vote 3rd party and say "welp we lost this isn't working" when you were literally contributing to his loss. If you want to go ahead and vote Green, that's your right, you do you, but you get what you get nd you don't get upset at the end of the day

I'm not advocating people vote Green. I'm advocating the Democrats get better candidates than this.

You need to stop thinking of voters as being on a spectrum. Having a moderate hero candidate doesn't just depress progressive turnout. It also discourages the average voter; why would you vote for somebody who offers nothing against your opponent?

Independent voters aren't just centrists. They're also people who are open to single-payer healthcare and a ton of other so-called "radical" ideas.