TX-SEN 2020 Megathread: Early Voting

[Pollster]

The Texas Dem Party should be getting started on bruising Cornyn now, before there is a clear candidate for Cornyn/Trump to hit back at. They should be getting mailers out to every Beto/Abbott voter they can identify and ensuring that Cornyn is not seen in their eyes as more Abbott-esque than Cruz-esque. The only chance the party has at this seat requires holding these voters.

[Pollster]

Surprised nobody has mentioned Admiral McRaven here yet.

[Pollster]

I'd imagine McRaven would be more desirable for the party as a VP choice, but I could see him defeating Cornyn (possibly more easily than we imagine, though of course not by any means with ease) if he runs on his service record and takes some liberal domestic stances like Medicare for All or  $15 minimum wage to hold the base.

[Pollster]

The only way I could see the Democrats successfully recruiting McRaven is if they successfully convince him that they will be in the majority in 2021 and offer him a plum committee assignment or even a chairmanship (likely to the chagrin of other, senior Senate Dems) right out of the gate as a freshman.

[Pollster]

Big Politico write-up on how Cornyn is taking the race extremely seriously

[Pollster]

Could Wendy Davis run for TX-24 if Castro goes for Senate? I recall her former district being around the area, unless I'm mistaken?

[Pollster]

According to the Associated Press/Fox News exit polls, Beto won Latino men 63/35 (women 74/25). If Castro can improve that showing and hold Beto's suburban support, the seat is his.

Helps that Latino men faced ethnic/gender identity cross pressure from Cruz that Cornyn will not be able to exert.

[Pollster]

According to the Associated Press/Fox News exit polls, Beto won Latino men 63/35 (women 74/25). If Castro can improve that showing and hold Beto's suburban support, the seat is his.

Helps that Latino men faced ethnic/gender identity cross pressure from Cruz that Cornyn will not be able to exert.

He probably needs to not just hold Beto's suburban support, but to build a little bit off of it in order to actually win

Building upon Beto's Latino men support and building upon Beto's suburban support are likely the same thing as the Dallas and San Antonio suburbs rapidly diversify.

[Pollster]

It would be hilarious if Hegar didn't make the runoff.

It being TX, that is entirely possible. I think it will most likely be 2 out of 3 of Hegar, Tzintzun-Ramirez, and West. But Hegar might not necessarily by one of the 2. Each candidate has different bases (and pretty much all of them overlap with some of the other candidates also):

Hegar - establishment vote & White suburbanites, probably some Austin-area regional support
Tzintzun-Ramirez - progressive vote and Hispanics
West - DFW vote and African Americans

Amanda Edwards has won city-wide in Houston in both a crowded nonpartisan primary and runoff - no small feat. Her potential to post big numbers in the Houston metro should not be underestimated, as well as er potential to tap into West's African American support.

[Pollster]

Cornyn feuding with Royce West

[Pollster]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1283826360578908162?s=20

[Pollster]

MJ Hegar went up today with a substantial ad buy running this ad.

For all the talk of the constant campaign cycle and how Trump has changed campaigns, it's remarkable how many candidates this cycle appear to be following the classical & conventional post-Labor Day blitz model.

[Pollster]

We're probably in for some massive fundraising totals in the next week or so.

https://twitter.com/TexasTribune/status/1311400176741953538?s=20

[Pollster]

Terrific news for Democrats if this is the GOP's closing message.

https://twitter.com/JohnCornyn/status/1311612005829226498?s=20

[Pollster]

A potential benefit to Hegar (that no other Senate candidate has this cycle as far as I know) is the supremely well-funded and high-profile effort to turn out the state's Dem voters to flip the State House. This type of heavily targeted regional turnout could create a situation that actually produces upward coattails, especially if Biden closes strongly in the state.

[Pollster]

It should also be noted that Dems only came in with something like $2.8M for Beto in the closing days of 2018. So the fact that they are dumping nearly *$9 million* for Hegar shows they really think they can win. And judging from these early voting #s, I think there is definitely a high chance.

In fairness, Beto really didn't need any financial help (and keep in mind candidate money goes a lot further than IE money). He also got millions in free media coverage.