2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling NE-GOV R for Pillen!! TRUMP GOES DOWN IN DEFEAT!!!

That is one Race Trump lost. He will win many more with his Candidates. Oz is going to crush it if the E-Day Vote is as strong as they were for Vance in Ohio & Herbster in NE.

Mooney crushing McKinley should be a big warning sign for RINOS like you.

Evnen won easily despite criticizing The Big Lie. Bacon won overwhelmingly despite voting for BIF. And the Pillen Victory. Yeah, I know Adrian Smith won, but he faced little opposition. Nebraska rejected Trump tonight.

West Virginia was a victory for Trump tonight, yes. But Nebraska was a clear defeat.

[Ferguson97]

I had to work late tonight so I wasn't able to follow the coverage: any surprises?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I had to work late tonight so I wasn't able to follow the coverage: any surprises?

Not really. Mooney overwhelmingly won against McKinley and Pillen narrowly won against Herbster.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Calling NE-GOV R for Pillen!! TRUMP GOES DOWN IN DEFEAT!!!

That is one Race Trump lost. He will win many more with his Candidates. Oz is going to crush it if the E-Day Vote is as strong as they were for Vance in Ohio & Herbster in NE.

Mooney crushing McKinley should be a big warning sign for RINOS like you.

Evnen won easily despite criticizing The Big Lie. Bacon won overwhelmingly despite voting for BIF. And the Pillen Victory. Yeah, I know Adrian Smith won, but he faced little opposition. Nebraska rejected Trump tonight.

West Virginia was a victory for Trump tonight, yes. But Nebraska was a clear defeat.

Evnev got under 50% and only won with a divided opposition. Bacon's challenger wasn't endorsed by Trump.
And like I said, Herbster was a terrible candidate with the entire Nebraska GOP opposing him and serious allegations of him groping Republican state senators. And yet he still almost won.
Nebraska did not "reject Trump"

[riceowl]

I've said this a few times before. Trump's endorsement means more in federal races.

Yes he wants to make AMERICA great again, not *insert state*

[Skill and Chance]

Herbster did get quite close at the end. Wow.

Edit: Note Pillen's home county still 85% out, more outstanding than anywhere else in the state.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Hot take: The WV-02 primary is bad news for Manchin in 2024. Manchin aggressively pushed McKinley and attacked Mooney, but Republican voters overwhelmingly took a Trump-endorsed hardline conservative carpetbagger over a still-popular moderate West Virginian.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Also this clearly indicated Mary Miller is heavily favored against Rodney Davis, especially as Miller is a much better candidate than Mooney and Trump plans to hold a rally for her.

[Agafin]

So, trump nearly pulled a scandal ridden candidate over the line.. and obliterated a long-term stalwart of WV politics in his own turf.

Yet, this is supposedly a sign of his waning influence.

I mean, the sign of his waning influence is probably going to be the absolute walloping that his endorsed candidate will receive in two weeks in Georgia.

At this point, Trump probably hates Georgia more than most blue states lol.  Ls after Ls.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

The most recent OH-SEN primary poll: Vance +4
OH-SEN primary margin: Vance +8

The most recent NE-GOV primary poll: Pillen +5
NE-GOV primary margin: Pillen +3

The most recent WV-02 primary poll: Mooney +15
WV-02 primary margin: Mooney +19

I'm sensing a pattern here...

[ElectionsGuy]

It's remarkable how much of a consistent pattern it is that the Trumpiest vote comes in on election day after the more establishment early/mail-in vote, even in Republican primaries. You would've thought Herbster was underperforming to an extreme extent with the first returns, but he ended up getting close. Same with Mooney in WV-02, who slightly trailed in early returns but won easily.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

It's remarkable how much of a consistent pattern it is that the Trumpiest vote comes in on election day after the more establishment early/mail-in vote, even in Republican primaries. You would've thought Herbster was underperforming to an extreme extent with the first returns, but he ended up getting close. Same with Mooney in WV-02, who slightly trailed in early returns but won easily.

Why do you think this is, EG?

Perhaps the Trump endorsement motivates typically non-voters to get out and vote? 

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

It's remarkable how much of a consistent pattern it is that the Trumpiest vote comes in on election day after the more establishment early/mail-in vote, even in Republican primaries. You would've thought Herbster was underperforming to an extreme extent with the first returns, but he ended up getting close. Same with Mooney in WV-02, who slightly trailed in early returns but won easily.

Why do you think this is, EG?

Perhaps the Trump endorsement motivates typically non-voters to get out and vote? 

Perhaps a mix of that and Trumpy voters being more skeptical of VBM

[ElectionsGuy]

It's remarkable how much of a consistent pattern it is that the Trumpiest vote comes in on election day after the more establishment early/mail-in vote, even in Republican primaries. You would've thought Herbster was underperforming to an extreme extent with the first returns, but he ended up getting close. Same with Mooney in WV-02, who slightly trailed in early returns but won easily.

Why do you think this is, EG?

Perhaps the Trump endorsement motivates typically non-voters to get out and vote? 

That to a lesser extent, but mostly the long-term effects of 2020 skepticism of non-election day voting, which always came from him against the wishes of the party establishment. It's something we need to keep in mind for the general elections in 2022 as well, we're probably going to see very Dem-skewed numbers early on in many races that count early vote first, just like 2020.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

So, trump nearly pulled a scandal ridden candidate over the line.. and obliterated a long-term stalwart of WV politics in his own turf.

Yet, this is supposedly a sign of his waning influence.

I mean, the sign of his waning influence is probably going to be the absolute walloping that his endorsed candidate will receive in two weeks in Georgia.

At this point, Trump probably hates Georgia more than most blue states lol.  Ls after Ls.

Given Raffensperger is DOA against Hice, and Duncan abandoned his race early on.. I'm not sure the survival of a relatively popular gov such as Kemp is going to mean much.

[Skill and Chance]

So, trump nearly pulled a scandal ridden candidate over the line.. and obliterated a long-term stalwart of WV politics in his own turf.

Yet, this is supposedly a sign of his waning influence.

I mean, the sign of his waning influence is probably going to be the absolute walloping that his endorsed candidate will receive in two weeks in Georgia.

At this point, Trump probably hates Georgia more than most blue states lol.  Ls after Ls.

Given Raffensperger is DOA against Hice, and Duncan abandoned his race early on.. I'm not sure the survival of a relatively popular gov such as Kemp is going to mean much.

The governor (not SOS) decides state level EC disputes under the Electoral Count Act

[Skill and Chance]

It's remarkable how much of a consistent pattern it is that the Trumpiest vote comes in on election day after the more establishment early/mail-in vote, even in Republican primaries. You would've thought Herbster was underperforming to an extreme extent with the first returns, but he ended up getting close. Same with Mooney in WV-02, who slightly trailed in early returns but won easily.

Why do you think this is, EG?

Perhaps the Trump endorsement motivates typically non-voters to get out and vote? 

That to a lesser extent, but mostly the long-term effects of 2020 skepticism of non-election day voting, which always came from him against the wishes of the party establishment. It's something we need to keep in mind for the general elections in 2022 as well, we're probably going to see very Dem-skewed numbers early on in many races that count early vote first, just like 2020.

How much VBM was there in these primaries, though?  Probably not much?  Was it more in-person EV?

[Roll Roons]

It's remarkable how much of a consistent pattern it is that the Trumpiest vote comes in on election day after the more establishment early/mail-in vote, even in Republican primaries. You would've thought Herbster was underperforming to an extreme extent with the first returns, but he ended up getting close. Same with Mooney in WV-02, who slightly trailed in early returns but won easily.

Why do you think this is, EG?

Perhaps the Trump endorsement motivates typically non-voters to get out and vote? 

That to a lesser extent, but mostly the long-term effects of 2020 skepticism of non-election day voting, which always came from him against the wishes of the party establishment. It's something we need to keep in mind for the general elections in 2022 as well, we're probably going to see very Dem-skewed numbers early on in many races that count early vote first, just like 2020.

How much VBM was there in these primaries, though?  Probably not much?  Was it more in-person EV?

Yeah, I don't think Nebraska is a big VBM state. I think Lindstrom's early lead was because of in-person early voting.

[ElectionsGuy]

It's remarkable how much of a consistent pattern it is that the Trumpiest vote comes in on election day after the more establishment early/mail-in vote, even in Republican primaries. You would've thought Herbster was underperforming to an extreme extent with the first returns, but he ended up getting close. Same with Mooney in WV-02, who slightly trailed in early returns but won easily.

Why do you think this is, EG?

Perhaps the Trump endorsement motivates typically non-voters to get out and vote? 

That to a lesser extent, but mostly the long-term effects of 2020 skepticism of non-election day voting, which always came from him against the wishes of the party establishment. It's something we need to keep in mind for the general elections in 2022 as well, we're probably going to see very Dem-skewed numbers early on in many races that count early vote first, just like 2020.

How much VBM was there in these primaries, though?  Probably not much?  Was it more in-person EV?

Yeah, hardly any Republicans vote by mail. So even the early in-person is notably less Trump-friendly.

[ElectionsGuy]

West Virginia Cumulative House (so far)

R: 193,409 ('20) --> 145,293
D: 172,540 ('20) --> 75,791

After decades, Dem primary turnout is finally following the loss they've endured in party registration. Dems almost outvoted R's in WV-03 and WV-01 in 2020. In 2018, Dems easily outvoted R's in combined primary totals. This time R's look to outvote them nearly 2:1.

NE-02 looks like it'll be 58-60% R vs 40-42% Dem. Statewide over 70% R.

[wbrocks67]

I would imagine that Herbster likely would've pulled it out if not for the sexual assault allegations, so with the WV-02 news, Trumps endorsement appears to be remaining strong.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling NE-3 D for Else

That concludes Nebraska

[2016]

Nebraska was pretty much GOVERNOR PETE RICKETTS vs FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP.

Scandal-ridden Herbster still got over 30 % of the Vote.

More importantly: Candidates endorsed by the President are seemingly on a consistent basis are outperforming the Primary Polling.

Democrats Cronies in Washington ought to be very worried about November because the Polling Industry apparently still haven't learned their lessons about how to conduct Polls.

There is still a sizeable hidden Trump Vote out that the Polls are on a consistent basis failed to capture.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

What does last night's results spell out for Pennsylvania?

[Pink Panther]

Bump. You already know why