🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[President Johnson]

Could the SPD and Greens not just have a minority coalition with Linke confidence/supply? Or are such arrangements verboten in German political culture?

We don't really do minority governments.
There is one in Thuringia right now (Linke-SPD-Greens with a weird sort-of arrangement with the CDU) and there was one from 2010 to 2012 in NRW (SPD-Greens with confidence and supply from Linke). These are the two recent examples.
There has been none on the federal level and I'm not sure whether Olaf would want to experiment. In fact, he does not seem like a person who likes experiments.

Yeah, I don't see him doing it either. Merkel also immediately rejected the idea in 2013 although the Union was just five or six seats short of an absolute majority. In this case, SPD and Greens combined are always in the low 40s, which wouldn't be that close to a majority.

Overall, I think the FDP would be the more reliable coalition partner at the federal level because there seem less internal divisions and the party actually has a governing experience. The ideal realistic outcome would be a majority for R2G, which would pressure Lindner to go into a trafficlight coalition as sort of "centrist corrective". Die Linke would certainly be in dilemma here because part of their appeal is protest votes and strong ideology. Offering severe concessions to the SPD and Greens may very well make them look obsolete in voters eyes. On the other hand, the FDP may lose a lot of disaffected CDU voters.

Of course, the best outcome would be an outright Red-Green majority, though that's not going to happen. The SPD would at least need the 25% of the recent poll while the Greens need to find additional voters to get to 21-22%. And not at the expense of the SPD (and vise versa).

[Alcibiades]

At this stage, Ampel has to be by far the most likely coalition barring a dramatic reversal in the current polling trends, surely? I realise that the FDP would prefer a Jamaica coalition, but if the CDU/CSU do end finishing a distant second, there would surely be enormous pressure from both within and outside the party to go into opposition, and outrage if the SPD, as clear winners of the election, were excluded from government.

At the debate last night, Scholz was careful not to rule out R2G, but I feel he is probably only keeping it open to use as leverage over the FDP. I doubt the SPD and Greens would want to risk toxifying their brand among moderate voters by going into coalition with die Linke.

The only other options are Kenya and Germany coalitions, but there is no reason why the SPD should want to go into another coalition with the CDU/CSU, even as the senior partner, so this leaves Ampel as by far the most viable coalition.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Why is Laschet even a candidate? My only memory of the CDU leadership contest between him and Söder was that Söder seemed like the strongest, base-appealing candidate. Was that wrong, and he was seen as a good candidate at the time but has since unraveled, or what?

[Yeahsayyeah]

Why is Laschet even a candidate? My only memory of the CDU leadership contest between him and Söder was that Söder seemed like the strongest, base-appealing candidate. Was that wrong, and he was seen as a good candidate at the time but has since unraveled, or what?

Basically the main reasoning was that Laschet wanted the spot desperately and he was the newly elected CDU chair and he (and with him the party) would be severely damaged by denying it to him. Side reasonings were: Söder has a boost for being seen as an effective leader against covid19 and that could vanish. Laschet is some kind of a comeback kid as he won an NRW landtag election that seemed unwinnable for him.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Why is Laschet even a candidate? My only memory of the CDU leadership contest between him and Söder was that Söder seemed like the strongest, base-appealing candidate. Was that wrong, and he was seen as a good candidate at the time but has since unraveled, or what?

Basically the main reasoning was that Laschet wanted the spot desperately and he was the newly elected CDU chair and he (and with him the party) would be severely damaged by denying it to him. Side reasonings were: Söder has a boost for being seen as an effective leader against covid19 and that could vanish. Laschet is some kind of a comeback kid as he won an NRW landtag election that seemed unwinnable for him.

With the crucial distinction that in NRW, he was seen as the lesser evil. Now, he is the evil everyone tries to avoid.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

This latest poll would give Red/Red/Green a clear majority (btw: is there a nickname for such a thing?). I realize that by all accounts Scholz will not want to do that and is more likely to go for a traffic light coalition, but presumably if the math is actually there for red-red-green - it puts even more pressure on the FDP to join a traffic light.

I know its not going to happen, but what would the role of Linke be if there was a RRD coalition? Since they will likely only get 6% or so of the vote they would likely only get a couple of cabinet portfolios and presumably they could minor portfolios where they could be kept out of trouble...(maybe give them agriculture and services for people with disabilities or something like that)

The nickname for Red-Red-Green is R2G.

They'd probably demand some higher taxes for the rich and tougher social reforms, but SPD and Greens would pressure them to keep out of foreign and defense policy. Possible Cabinet posts might be Labor and Social Affairs (although SPD would likely to keep those posts in all likelihood) and... Well besides, there isn't really a Department tailored for Linke. Maybe Economic Development, which is essentially the most useless portfolio?

I do think linke would totally collapse of they actually went into Goverment. A large part of their base is made up of people who actively reject liberal democracy and an even larger part is made up of people who don't understand political compromise or are just looking for an ant-system party.

After being forced to face the actual busniess of governance the party will tear itself apart.

[Blair]

When did Die linke manage to shed the baggage of being the legacy party of the SED?

It feels strange for them to be in a coalition and I wondered how much of a resistance there would be?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

When did Die linke manage to shed the baggage of being the legacy party of the SED?

It feels strange for them to be in a coalition and I wondered how much of a resistance there would be?

They haven't shed it. Both the SDP and Green know they'd loose a bunch of moderate voters governing with them.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

CDU unleashes Merkel.

https://www.bild.de/politik/inland/politik/merkel-ein-gewaltiger-unterschied-zwischen-mir-und-scholz-77542726.bild.html

Merkel Richtung Scholz: „Wenn man sozusagen sich auf mich beruft, (gibt) es einen Unterschied: Mit mir als Bundeskanzlerin würde es nie eine Koalition geben, in der die Linke beteiligt ist. Und ob dies von Olaf Scholz so geteilt wird oder nicht, das bleibt offen. Und in dem Zusammenhang ist es einfach so, dass da ein gewaltiger Unterschied für die Zukunft Deutschlands zwischen mir und Olaf Scholz besteht.“

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

INSA has kindly provided a poll of Thuringia (changes from last election):
AfD 22 (-1)
SPD 21 (+8)
SED 18 (+1)
CDU 18 (-11)
FDP 9 (+1)
Green 5 (+1)

Feels like the East is ready to swing BIGLY now Merkel is gone.

[Yeahsayyeah]

When did Die linke manage to shed the baggage of being the legacy party of the SED?

It feels strange for them to be in a coalition and I wondered how much of a resistance there would be?

They haven't shed it. Both the SDP and Green know they'd loose a bunch of moderate voters governing with them.

But if, "SED heritage" would not be the reason. The number of people that care about that is shrinking, at least for biological reason. The Linke has now members from the west than from the east now. And the Easterners are mostly the more moderate forces in the party. Even as the Union parties try to revive the "red socks" campaign in a desperate move, now, "SED legacy" is not the angle they are using.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

When did Die linke manage to shed the baggage of being the legacy party of the SED?

It feels strange for them to be in a coalition and I wondered how much of a resistance there would be?

They haven't shed it. Both the SDP and Green know they'd loose a bunch of moderate voters governing with them.

But if, "SED heritage" would not be the reason. The number of people that care about that is shrinking, at least for biological reason. The Linke has now members from the west than from the east now. And the Easterners are mostly the more moderate forces in the party. Even as the Union parties try to revive the "red socks" campaign in a desperate move, now, "SED legacy" is not the angle they are using.

Well more the fact that party has numerous unreformed radicals, ranging from those who defend the Red Army Faction to the mere ordinary tankie to functionaries who were involved in the Stasi at a high-level. Furthmore the parties policies are incoherent, calling for Germany to evacuvate those in afghanistan and then voting against a resoultion to do exactly that.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yeah, you're a "liberal hack" alright

Go on then, *how* many RAF stans are actually in Die Linke? Let's have a number.

[President Johnson]

Another day, another two great polls. SPD massive surge now confirmed by multiple pollsters. Just a reminder: Laschet is 2-3% away from third place. Lmao.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1432678139143073795
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1432695140280328199

[Astatine]

Another day, another two great polls. SPD massive surge now confirmed by multiple pollsters. Just a reminder: Laschet is 2-3% away from third place. Lmao.

Holy cow, Red-Green is like 3-4 % away from a majority? Who would've expected this one year ago.

We're even a point where Red-Yellow, which hasn't been a thing in like 15 years, is closer to a majority (still far away from it) than Black-Yellow, an option which - at some point in time during this legislative period - occasionally got a majority in some few polls.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Yeah, you're a "liberal hack" alright

Go on then, *how* many RAF stans are actually in Die Linke? Let's have a number.

An actual member of the RAF is a parliamentary assistant to Die Linke member of the Bundestag.

https://www.dialoginternational.com/dialog_international/2016/07/stasi-informant-and-left-party-politician-diether-dehm-explains-anti-semitism.html

Diether Dehm is one of the more vocal leaders of the Querfront (cross-over front)  - the union between far-left activists and right-wing extremists - who rail against the United States and Israel, while agitating for close ties with Vladimir Putin.

Dehm recently hired the former-Red Army Faction (RAF)  terrorist Christian Klar as an assistant. Klar was recently released (!) from prison where he was serving a life sentence for the murders of Juergen Ponto, Hans Martin Schleyer, Siegfried Burback and others during RAF operations in the 1970s.

The social milieu of the Die Linke is such that it's members feel comfortable making jokes about killing the 1% of merely putting them into gulags. Imagine if another party made similar statments about hippies or another group, especialy one that had a history of particpiating in such state sanctioned oppresion.

[Sir Mohamed]

Whoa, an actual SPD victory would be a good sign for the center-left in all of Europe, wouldn't it? Just not sure whether that lasts to late Sept. when the election is held.

What would happen to CDU with an actual 3rd place finish or 2nd place at 20/21%? I suppose a lot of heads would roll (politically spoken)?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why is Laschet even a candidate?

Because the very factors that make him unpalatable to the wider electorate - the man is CDU establishment to his fingertips and comes across as an actual caricature of a CDU politician - were positives to the people who picked him. One of the boys, you know?

[parochial boy]

Whoa, an actual SPD victory would be a good sign for the center-left in all of Europe, wouldn't it? Just not sure whether that lasts to late Sept. when the election is held.

Scholzy's pronouncements so far seem to indicate that he is still signed up to the debt break and the EU fiscal stability pact (even, if - maybe - that's just playing to the audience). So in so far as the best practical thing for the wider European centre-left would be a reform of the EU's fiscal and monetary rules, then it doesn't seem especially likely, no.

I dare say that the overall picture for left of centre politics isn't as grim now as it was a couple of years ago, and a German SPD government would be a big symbolic win, rebalance the forces at the European level and so on - but the PVDA and the PS aren't going to come back from the dead just because their German sister party found someone competent to run for chancellor.

[Alcibiades]

This is a leaked proposal for an Ampel cabinet, supposedly drawn up by the Seeheimer Kreis, the main group representing the SPD’s right.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MartinGreive/status/1432696725051949069

The SPD would get Chancellor (obviously), Interior, Labour, Health, Family, and Economic Development, the Greens would get Foreign Affairs, a newly merged Climate, Environment and Energy Ministry, Justice, Agriculture, and Transport, and the FDP would get Finance, Economy, Defence, and Education.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

This is a leaked proposal for an Ampel cabinet, supposedly drawn up by the Seeheimer Kreis, the main group representing the SPD’s right.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MartinGreive/status/1432696725051949069

The SPD would get Chancellor (obviously), Interior, Labour, Health, Family, and Economic Development, the Greens would get Foreign Affairs, a newly merged Climate, Environment and Energy Ministry, Justice, Agriculture, and Transport, and the FDP would get Finance, Economy, Defence, and Education.

We've had these kind of papers before. We shouldn't trust this and forget that we ever saw this.

EDIT: Upon further consideration, I am pretty certain that the objective of this paper is to convince some FDP voters to vote CDU. Schulze, Künast, Hofreiter in crucial positions is not something that FDP-voters would want.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

EDIT: Upon further consideration, I am pretty certain that the objective of this paper is to convince some FDP voters to vote CDU. Schulze, Künast, Hofreiter in crucial positions is not something that FDP-voters would want.

It also has FDP running Finance, Economy and Education - if it's a false flag it sounds like one also designed to bail out Linke and make a scaremongering campaign based around that more plausible.

[Astatine]

I always trust "leaked, confidential" documents written in Calibri.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Latin America, Europe, the US…the political right is in shambles .

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

By the way, now that we're talking about people, does anyone have a guess who the SPD might nominate for president of the Bundestag if they become the largest party? Dagmar Ziegler (incumbent vice president) is not running again.