2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[wbrocks67]

I don't think it's worth paying much attention to early voting until right before election night. We still don't have enough data at all.

With some states already approaching 25% of their 2016 turnout more than a month still out, I disagree.

You're citing statistics that mean absolutely nothing of predictive value. Let's see what turnout is right before the election.

Huh? States are literally nearing 25% of their entire 2016 turnout with a *MONTH TO GO* That is absolutely of predictive value that this is going to be insanely high turnout election

It could be frontloaded. And no state is near 25% besides South Dakota (which is at 17%). virginia/wisconsin are only around 13%...

Most primaries saw record turnout as well. All of the evidence we have points to a very high turnout election with record breaking turnout

[Dr. Arch]

I don't think it's worth paying much attention to early voting until right before election night. We still don't have enough data at all.

With some states already approaching 25% of their 2016 turnout more than a month still out, I disagree.

You're citing statistics that mean absolutely nothing of predictive value. Let's see what turnout is right before the election.

Huh? States are literally nearing 25% of their entire 2016 turnout with a *MONTH TO GO* That is absolutely of predictive value that this is going to be insanely high turnout election

It could be frontloaded. And no state is near 25% besides South Dakota (which is at 17%). virginia/wisconsin are only around 13%...

To be fair, Dane County (WI) is already at 50% turnout in ballot requests, and nearly 40% of those requested ballots have already been turned in. This is going to be a sky high turnout election (for Democrats, at least).

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I don't think it's worth paying much attention to early voting until right before election night. We still don't have enough data at all.

With some states already approaching 25% of their 2016 turnout more than a month still out, I disagree.

You're citing statistics that mean absolutely nothing of predictive value. Let's see what turnout is right before the election.

Huh? States are literally nearing 25% of their entire 2016 turnout with a *MONTH TO GO* That is absolutely of predictive value that this is going to be insanely high turnout election

It could be frontloaded. And no state is near 25% besides South Dakota (which is at 17%). virginia/wisconsin are only around 13%...

Most primaries saw record turnout as well. All of the evidence we have points to a very high turnout election with record breaking turnout

I'm not disagreeing that there will be record turnout. I just don't think we can determine that it is very good for democrats yet. We need more data before we can say anything conclusive.

I would obviously hope it's good for dems because I support Biden, but it's best not to be overconfident.

[Non Swing Voter]

I think this thread should focus more on reporting early voting numbers and looking at them from a numerical standpoint and not get into long back and forths about who's going to win based off the numbers.

[Rep Jessica]

Michael McDonald
@ElectProject
·
3h
#earlyvote morning update 10/1

At least 2 million people have voted in the 2020 general election
Partying face


Because morning reports are for yesterday's activity, this means at least 2 million people voted in September https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202

[Rep Jessica]

MD and PA #earlyvote daily reports posted. Now at least 2.1 million voted in the 2020 general election https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

https://twitter.com/KristenJohanson/status/1311682113956175873

[Rep Jessica]

251,103 people have voted in Florida

Democratic 135,509 (54.0%)
Republican 70,103 (27.9%)
Others 45,491 (18.1%)

Google Doc: https://tinyurl.com/y2wulups

[kph14]

251,103 people have voted in Florida

Democratic 135,509 (54.0%)
Republican 70,103 (27.9%)
Others 45,491 (18.1%)

Google Doc: https://tinyurl.com/y2wulups

Before today Miami-Dade had only sent out ballots for overseas voters.
https://wsvn.com/news/local/over-530000-mail-in-ballots-to-be-sent-out-in-miami-dade-county/

And Orange County (Orlando) did not sent out ballots until yesterday.
https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/orange-county-rolls-out-historic-number-of-mail-in-ballots

Many Democratic voters have not even gotten their ballots yet.

[ajc0918]

251,103 people have voted in Florida

Democratic 135,509 (54.0%)
Republican 70,103 (27.9%)
Others 45,491 (18.1%)

Google Doc: https://tinyurl.com/y2wulups

Before today Miami-Dade had only sent out ballots for overseas voters.
https://wsvn.com/news/local/over-530000-mail-in-ballots-to-be-sent-out-in-miami-dade-county/

And Orange County (Orlando) did not sent out ballots until yesterday.
https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/orange-county-rolls-out-historic-number-of-mail-in-ballots

Many Democratic voters have not even gotten their ballots yet.

Pinellas only sent ballots Tuesday so very few are in from that county. Dems lead ballot requests by 25,000 in Pinellas.

[GP270watch]

251,103 people have voted in Florida

Democratic 135,509 (54.0%)
Republican 70,103 (27.9%)
Others 45,491 (18.1%)

Google Doc: https://tinyurl.com/y2wulups

Before today Miami-Dade had only sent out ballots for overseas voters.
https://wsvn.com/news/local/over-530000-mail-in-ballots-to-be-sent-out-in-miami-dade-county/

And Orange County (Orlando) did not sent out ballots until yesterday.
https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/orange-county-rolls-out-historic-number-of-mail-in-ballots

Many Democratic voters have not even gotten their ballots yet.

 Democrats in Florida are actually doing a great job mailing back ballots. Usually we have a terrible time getting people to mail them back. Also I believe many African Americans will still be voting in person after Church services on the weekends when early in person voting starts. Some people are worried that we are pulling votes forward but that's stupid. A banked vote is better than anything. Florida GOP does a great job with turnout and has closed the registration gap so it's going to be a battle in Florida like always.

[ajc0918]

251,103 people have voted in Florida

Democratic 135,509 (54.0%)
Republican 70,103 (27.9%)
Others 45,491 (18.1%)

Google Doc: https://tinyurl.com/y2wulups

Before today Miami-Dade had only sent out ballots for overseas voters.
https://wsvn.com/news/local/over-530000-mail-in-ballots-to-be-sent-out-in-miami-dade-county/

And Orange County (Orlando) did not sent out ballots until yesterday.
https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/orange-county-rolls-out-historic-number-of-mail-in-ballots

Many Democratic voters have not even gotten their ballots yet.

 Democrats in Florida are actually doing a great job mailing back ballots. Usually we have a terrible time getting people to mail them back. Also I believe many African Americans will still be voting in person after Church services on the weekends when early in person voting starts. Some people are worried that we are pulling votes forward but that's stupid. A banked vote is better than anything. Florida GOP does a great job with turnout and has closed the registration gap so it's going to be a battle in Florida like always.

Agreed. Not only are Florida Dems returning more ballots in raw numbers but their percent of returned ballots is also higher. Hope it continues so they can target sporadic voters.

[Non Swing Voter]

Seems unfair that some counties get ballots before others in the same state...

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1311718569189806089

Seems unfair that some counties get ballots before others in the same state...

Larger counties need to get them earlier because of how long it would take to process/send them.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1311718569189806089

Seems unfair that some counties get ballots before others in the same state...

Larger counties need to get them earlier because of how long it would take to process/send them.

There is no justification for this. Just simple voter suppression.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1311718569189806089

Seems unfair that some counties get ballots before others in the same state...

Larger counties need to get them earlier because of how long it would take to process/send them.

There is no justification for this. Just simple voter suppression.

I'm assuming you're responding to the tweet and not my explanation for county ballots?

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/cheyennehaslett/status/1311733108039974912

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1311718569189806089

Seems unfair that some counties get ballots before others in the same state...

Larger counties need to get them earlier because of how long it would take to process/send them.

There is no justification for this. Just simple voter suppression.

I'm assuming you're responding to the tweet and not my explanation for county ballots?

sorry, yes lol

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1311718569189806089

Seems unfair that some counties get ballots before others in the same state...

Larger counties need to get them earlier because of how long it would take to process/send them.

It seems the opposite is happening.  Miami Dade sending them out slower than small rural FL counties...

[Adam Griffin]

 

[Inmate Trump]

If Trump wins it’ll be because he does something shady with mail-in ballots.

Like causing them to not be counted or just trashed.  He’ll go to the courts to accomplish this.  It may look like a Trump landslide because of this.

[kph14]

https://twitter.com/cheyennehaslett/status/1311733108039974912

Wait a second, 1.97 million issued? I think she wants to say 1.197 million
https://elections.wi.gov/node/7146

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/cheyennehaslett/status/1311733108039974912

Wait a second, 1.97 million issued? I think she wants to say 1.197 million
https://elections.wi.gov/node/7146

Yeah, although it is up to 1.217 now.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

251,103 people have voted in Florida

Democratic 135,509 (54.0%)
Republican 70,103 (27.9%)
Others 45,491 (18.1%)

Google Doc: https://tinyurl.com/y2wulups

Off topic, but you have actually become a poster I enjoy seeing with these effortposts now, keep up the good work.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/rachelwalexande/status/1311777436061761536