2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[sobo]

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1311399431271591936

This is 32.5% of total turnout in 2016.

[Holmes]

The polls are gonna be very lonely on Election Day in Falls Church.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

The polls are gonna be very lonely on Election Day in Falls Church.

No because obviously Schumer and Soros are conspiring cosmopolitan elites along with Bloomberg who will bring in busloads of illegal mexicans to keep the lines steady

[Landslide Lyndon]

The polls are gonna be very lonely on Election Day in Falls Church.

No because obviously Schumer and Soros are conspiring cosmopolitan elites along with Bloomberg who will bring in busloads of illegal mexicans to keep the lines steady

That reminded me of this.

https://twitter.com/orbis_quintus/status/941098792593567746

https://twitter.com/AsiaChloeBrown/status/941117156724486144

[bilaps]

Still too early, but these 200k first FL votes look great for Democrats.

[It’s so Joever]

Still too early, but these 200k first FL votes look great for Democrats.

Half of Atlas will ignore the first three words of your post.
The other half will only look at those three words.

[republican1993]

Still too early, but these 200k first FL votes look great for Democrats.

because of 131k votes? LOL dems are expected to do well in early voting if not they are def losing.

[Holmes]

Still too early, but these 200k first FL votes look great for Democrats.

Half of Atlas will ignore the first three words of your post.
The other half will only look at those three words.

It took one post.

[Non Swing Voter]

so is turnout higher or lower than we expected at this point?  I'd say some states like South Dakota, Virginia, and Wisconsin have surprisingly high turnout.

[ajc0918]

Still too early, but these 200k first FL votes look great for Democrats.

because of 131k votes? LOL dems are expected to do well in early voting if not they are def losing.

There are actually about 237k votes in and Dems have 54% of those or a 62k vote advantage. As it was said it’s still early but generally the split is much much more even.

[republican1993]

Still too early, but these 200k first FL votes look great for Democrats.

because of 131k votes? LOL dems are expected to do well in early voting if not they are def losing.

There are actually about 237k votes in and Dems have 54% of those or a 62k vote advantage. As it was said it’s still early but generally the split is much much more even.

yup i agree - if the spread gets to like 300k dem advantage than repubs should be worried

[Non Swing Voter]

Still too early, but these 200k first FL votes look great for Democrats.

because of 131k votes? LOL dems are expected to do well in early voting if not they are def losing.

There are actually about 237k votes in and Dems have 54% of those or a 62k vote advantage. As it was said it’s still early but generally the split is much much more even.

yup i agree - if the spread gets to like 300k dem advantage than repubs should be worried

at this rate it very well could in a couple of weeks...

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Any thoughts Sir Woodburry?

[wbrocks67]

so is turnout higher or lower than we expected at this point?  I'd say some states like South Dakota, Virginia, and Wisconsin have surprisingly high turnout.

uh its certainly not lower...

[bilaps]

As I said earlier, I'm going to look at FL and NV mostly because you can make some sense of early numbers in these states reason being that they have a history of both parties voting in big numbers by mail or early in-person. This year NV is going all mail in, and FL will certainly have more people than ever voting this way.

So far, it's still way too early, we're up to almost 250k mail ballots returned in Florida out of 5m plus that are for now requested. This early numbers favor Democrats heavily. They are in percentages way ahead of their share in 2016 or 2018 (18 being important because even though it was midterm it had two highly competitive races statewide and turnout was almost like in a presidential contest). What remains to be seen however is will this just even out eventualy because Dems are more enthusiastic right now to start the process or is it a sign of things to come. But we'll know these things eventuly before an election day.

[Nyvin]

Got my New Hampshire ballot yesterday, filled it out this morning.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I don't think it's worth paying much attention to early voting until right before election night. We still don't have enough data at all.

[Holmes]

I’m interested to see how early voting goes in Florida. Usually mail voting in Florida favors Republicans and early voting favors Democrats, but with Dems so far dominating mail voting, I want to see how that will affect early voting.

[Holmes]

I don't think it's worth paying much attention to early voting until right before election night. We still don't have enough data at all.

With some states already approaching 25% of their 2016 turnout more than a month still out, I disagree.

[Non Swing Voter]

I don't think it's worth paying much attention to early voting until right before election night. We still don't have enough data at all.

With some states already approaching 25% of their 2016 turnout more than a month still out, I disagree.

Right, and Trump's entire re-election strategy seems to be suppress turnout so his base makes up a disproportionate share of the electorate.  Based on WI and VA numbers it's clear that's not going to happen so Trump needs to come up with a strategy to actually convince voters.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I don't think it's worth paying much attention to early voting until right before election night. We still don't have enough data at all.

With some states already approaching 25% of their 2016 turnout more than a month still out, I disagree.

You're citing statistics that mean absolutely nothing of predictive value. Let's see what turnout is right before the election.

[wbrocks67]

I don't think it's worth paying much attention to early voting until right before election night. We still don't have enough data at all.

With some states already approaching 25% of their 2016 turnout more than a month still out, I disagree.

You're citing statistics that mean absolutely nothing of predictive value. Let's see what turnout is right before the election.

Huh? States are literally nearing 25% of their entire 2016 turnout with a *MONTH TO GO* That is absolutely of predictive value that this is going to be insanely high turnout election

[Non Swing Voter]

I don't think it's worth paying much attention to early voting until right before election night. We still don't have enough data at all.

With some states already approaching 25% of their 2016 turnout more than a month still out, I disagree.

You're citing statistics that mean absolutely nothing of predictive value. Let's see what turnout is right before the election.

Banking a huge proportion of your voters a month early is a helpful indicator of what's happening.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I don't think it's worth paying much attention to early voting until right before election night. We still don't have enough data at all.

With some states already approaching 25% of their 2016 turnout more than a month still out, I disagree.

You're citing statistics that mean absolutely nothing of predictive value. Let's see what turnout is right before the election.

Huh? States are literally nearing 25% of their entire 2016 turnout with a *MONTH TO GO* That is absolutely of predictive value that this is going to be insanely high turnout election

It could be frontloaded. And no state is near 25% besides South Dakota (which is at 17%). virginia/wisconsin are only around 13%...

[Holmes]

I don't think it's worth paying much attention to early voting until right before election night. We still don't have enough data at all.

With some states already approaching 25% of their 2016 turnout more than a month still out, I disagree.

You're citing statistics that mean absolutely nothing of predictive value. Let's see what turnout is right before the election.

Feels like you’re dismissing me just for the sake of it. No one knows what turnout will be on Election Day itself but turnout right now I’m states with mail and early voting is huge, and there are no signs of it slowing down. Turnout is especially high in counties that are Democratic strongholds. I’m just saying that these are banked votes a whole 33 days before the election and more states will be starting early voting in the coming weeks.