🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Astatine]

- Chancellor: Olaf Scholz (SPD)
- Foreign/vice chancellor: Annalena Baerbock (Greens)
- Finance: Christian Lindner (FDP)
- Labor: SPD (keep Hubertus Heil please)
- Economy: FDP (Linda Teuteberg or Wolfgang Kubicki would be good)
- Environment and climate: Robert Habeck (Greens)
- Interior: SPD (please Boris Pistorius)
- Health: SPD (hopefully Karl Lauterbach)
- Justice: Greens (I'd like Cem Özedmir, before he hopefully replaces Kretschmann in a few years)
- Defense: SPD (former MdB Rainer Arnold would be a comptent choice)
- Digitalization (new): FDP
- Traffic: Greens
- Agriculture: Greens
- Family: SPD
- Education: SPD
- Economic Development: FDP
- Head of chancellery: SPD

I doubt the FDP could demand both the Finance and Economy Departments. The suggested cabinet would be a kind of best case scenario for the Liberals - I'd think switching Economy with Defense (Marie Agnes Strack-Zimmermann) would be somewhat more realistic though?

Also, if a Department for Digital Affairs were established, I would not exclude the possibility of one Department to be scrapped or merged as compensation - Possibly Economic Development? That role could easily be fulfilled by a State Secretary (just like Digital Affairs now).

Also Scholz promised that his Cabinet would be made up of 50 % women at least.

[Blair]

A stupid question (this is only the second German election I've followed closely)

What are the chances of a grand coalition between the SDP/CDU with the SDP taking the Chancellorship?

[Astatine]

A stupid question (this is only the second German election I've followed closely)

What are the chances of a grand coalition between the SDP/CDU with the SDP taking the Chancellorship?

That's not a stupid question at all!

Low, but it is not an option that is 100 % excluded. I'd rate it as extremely unlikely for the following reasons:

- First, a SPD/CDU coalition would need to win a majority. Right now, both parties are polling at ~40-45 % combined support with the SPD having the momentum, but it is not even a sure thing whether the SPD will actually overtake the Union nor that another Grand Coalition would have enough seats.

- It would be an absolute humiliation for CDU/CSU to be reduced to the role of the junior partner. The Christan Democrats are likely to get the worst result in their history, therefore I don't believe they have much appetite to be serving under a Chancellor Scholz - especially considering that junior partners in coalitions often get punished in the next elections.

- The SPD doesn't really want to govern with CDU/CSU again.

- I don't believe such a government would be really popular, since out of the last 16 years, a Grand Coalition governed for 12. SPD would make modest gains at max, while CDU/CSU are expected to suffer tremendous losses - Meanwhile Greens and Liberals are surging. From that point of view, it would likely be perceived somewhat "undemocratic" to exclude the party with most gains from government, although there is no formal or legal restriction.

[buritobr]

I am watching the debate now
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BDBITm3eumE

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Admittedly the debate is much harder to follow than i expected, was really hoping for auto-subtitles. Oh well.

But so far Laschet seems a bit defensive, Annalena goes often on the offensive, while Scholz, typically him, handles everything pretty cooly. Does that seem about right for the actual Germans following along?

I honestly can't judge the quality of their answers though, but Baerbock seems to be doing a good job grilling the others about GroKo, and Scholz so far does seem to be spinning every criticism into "Here's how we did better and fixed this".

[buritobr]

Same issues of the US 2020 debate: Middle East, pandemic, climate change

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

is it me or is Laschi not doing great at all? He seems very defensive and irritated

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Baerbock seems to be doing very, very well on children's issues and child poverty

[Jackson Lee]

At the start of the debate, they had a brief but heated argument about drones.

Laschet attacked Scholz for allowing the German military to purchase only unarmed surveillance drones, while Laschet wants them fully armed to kill terrorists.

Then it seemed to shift to evacuation of refugees out of Afghanistan and Covid.

[Astatine]

is it me or is Laschi not doing great at all? He seems very defensive and irritated

Laschet is never doing great in any televised appearances and always seems defensive and irritated. He always appears to be like an edgy child that refuses to empty the dishwasher because Mommy wouldn't let him watch TV after 6 pm.

[jeron]

is it me or is Laschi not doing great at all? He seems very defensive and irritated

Laschet is never doing great in any televised appearances and always seems defensive and irritated. He always appears to be like an edgy child that refuses to empty the dishwasher because Mommy wouldn't let him watch TV after 6 pm.

He just confirmed he is the weak candidate he really is.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

that was one of the most painful closing statements i have ever had to watch. The CDU completely f*ked up this election. They deserve third place.

[RGM2609]

So who is perceived to have won the debate? Baerbock?

[Astatine]

So who is perceived to have won the debate? Baerbock?

There will be a quick poll out this evening. I guess Baerbock and Scholz about tied, with Laschet somewhat behind.

But no performance was really outstanding tbh.

[RGM2609]

So who is perceived to have won the debate? Baerbock?

There will be a quick poll out this evening. I guess Baerbock and Scholz about tied, with Laschet somewhat behind.

But no performance was really outstanding tbh.

I see. So nothing here to stop the SPD's rise (like a Baerbock comeback or something)

[President Johnson]

Just watched the debate. I don't think it changes much fundamentally. Neither candidate had a clear cut "victory", nor did anyone had a very weak performance. Laschet was actually better or more passionate than I expected him to be, even though the bar may have been low for him given recent weeks.

Overall it was certainly an issue-oriented and very civil debate, which may be more important than anything else in these times we live in.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

So who is perceived to have won the debate? Baerbock?

There will be a quick poll out this evening. I guess Baerbock and Scholz about tied, with Laschet somewhat behind.

But no performance was really outstanding tbh.

I see. So nothing here to stop the SPD's rise (like a Baerbock comeback or something)

I think Baerbock might get a small bounce, or at minimum stop the bleeding, but Scholz played it safe and that's more or less what he needed to do. The SPD and Greens could both stand to gain a bit from tonight.

[Astatine]

Forsa poll:

Who won the debate?
Scholz 36 %
Baerbock 30 %
Laschet 25 %

Who was the most likeable?
Scholz 38 %
Baerbock 37 %
Laschet 22 %

Whom do you most trust to lead the country?
Scholz 47 %
Laschet 24 %
Baerbock 20 %

Who was most competent?
Scholz 46 %
Laschet 26 %
Baerbock 24 %

Who was most trustworthy?
Scholz 36 %
Baerbock 32 %
Laschet 25 %

[RGM2609]

Ouch Laschet really needed to do better given how everything else is going. Maybe these are dumb questions, but what is the mood inside CDU with their grip on power slipping away and do they have any clear strategy to stop this disaster? Also is a Baerbock comeback even remotely possible? She seemed quite well liked when announced but has the spell completely go away given her scandals?

[Astatine]

Ouch Laschet really needed to do better given how everything else is going. Maybe these are dumb questions, but what is the mood inside CDU with their grip on power slipping away and do they have any clear strategy to stop this disaster? Also is a Baerbock comeback even remotely possible? She seemed quite well liked when announced but has the spell completely go away given her scandals?

CDU/CSU is in full disarray. Closer Laschet allies stated that his advisors derailed his campaign, the base is highly demotivated and Söder doesn't really do anything to support Laschet.

Laschet refused to announce a Shadow Cabinet ahead of the elections, but now there are rumors he'd do so tomorrow. Unless the polls are very wrong and underestimating CDU/CSU (plus there will be some more debates, but I doubt they'll have a meaningful impact because a good chunk of voters will have cast their postal ballots already), they're on track for a full disaster.

For the Greens, it's kinda meh. Baerbock's reputation is not the best, her failure to capitalize on her honeymoon period might've cost her the Chancellorship.

As I had stated in another post already, Laschet's and Baerbock's problems are that they couldn't make a good impression when voters still had volatile opinions of them. Now their perceptions have solidified, and it's unlikely that their mediocre approval ratings will go up.

Scholz' biggest advantage is really that he's been a constant force in federal politics over the last years and that he's had modestly good approval ratings. I doubt any major scandal would emerge that could still cost him the momentum - As of now. The old CDU/CSU playbook of red-red-green scaremongering simply won't work as it used to.

[President Johnson]

Wow, good for Scholz. I'm glad Baerbock is a strong second here, because he needs strong Greens as long the SPD remains ahead.

Genosse Olaf definitely appeared cool and competent as usual (he's a professional), I only found him a little struggling by ruling a coalition with Die Linke out. As I said, I prefer trafficlight over Red-Green-Red, though a nominal left majority gives Scholz and Baerbock more leverage on Lindner to form such a government.

As for Laschet, definitely not the result you'd like to see here, given his poll numbers. However, as I said, I didn't find his performance that weak. It was ok, not very strong, not bad either.

[parochial boy]

I watched a bit, thought Baerbock was decent, but almost everything I've seen and read in the last hour or so has been most positive about Scholz. Stereotypes aside, coming across as the cool head is probably a better fit for what people want at this particular time.

[Astatine]

Also, I would be worried about the FDP if I were Laschet. The Liberals have not formally excluded a traffic light coalition yet in spite of being on verge of doing so multiple times, and I doubt they will, although Lindner clearly stated several times that his preferred coalition partner is CDU/CSU.

Several younger party candidates (including the former and current leader of the Young Liberals) have announced just today they clearly don't want the party leadership to exclude a traffic light coalition, in spite of programmatic differences. The FDP is Laschet's last hope as of now, and sometimes I feel like Lindner believes more in Laschet than CDU/CSU does lol.

This election might be a Pyrrhic victory for the FDP, because no matter what they'll do after the elections, their fragile voter coalition will fall apart to some degree, unless we see an upset with a Red-Green majority. That could actually boost the party as the de facto leading opposition force with CDU/CSU in full disarray.

[RGM2609]

Especially given how Laschet got the nomination in the first place, it is fairly obvious that Soder will try to succeed him as candidate for the next election if or when Laschet loses. But will he get some of the blame for the defeat inside CDU circles given that he didn't help at all?

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Whom do you most trust to lead the country?
Scholz 47 %
Laschet 24 %
Baerbock 20 %

This is great