2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Gass3268]

Maricopa will be done by tomorrow:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1326647654781120513?s=20

[Ferguson97]

Uh, so this seems like a problem

https://twitter.com/willwilkinson/status/1326622656595103745

[Person Man]

Anything coming out of AZ today?  Boy, would like to get that one in the books.  Would put real pressure on Trump with the high recount standards.

I don’t think there’s much of anything left?

There's an estimated 45K outstanding (27K of which is provisionals and 3K needing signature cures -- not all of these categories will be accepted).  They may have stopped counting today for the holiday.

Realistically 35k?

The model I've been using in the updates to see whether Trump could catch up uses 50% acceptance for the signature cures and 80% for provisionals.  That estimates 38,835 accepted of 45,819 remaining ballots.  But both of those percentages are unrealistically high (deliberately so to see if Trump had any realistic chance).  35K is probably a reasonable estimate; if anything, I'd take the under on it.

So Trump needs 24 out of 35? So 68-69% where he will probably get 58% +\-5%?

[BudgieForce]

Uh, so this seems like a problem

https://twitter.com/willwilkinson/status/1326622656595103745

I think most of us assumed exit polls would be terrible this year.

[Gass3268]

Uh, so this seems like a problem

https://twitter.com/willwilkinson/status/1326622656595103745

The AP Votecast was created due to the issues at Edison from about 2004 on. Personally I would trust them more, but it would probably be best to wait and she how they both compare to actual precinct analysis.

[Rand]

Fox News vindicated.

[MATTROSE94]

https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1326575307248308224

You may now sleep on Al Gross.

Al Gross should have won. We need a doctor in the Senate during this time of a pandemic.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1326575307248308224

You may now sleep on Al Gross.

Al Gross should have won. We need a doctor in the Senate during this time of a pandemic.

There's actually three of them in the Senate right now (Barrasso, Cassidy, and Paul). 

[MATTROSE94]

https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1326575307248308224

You may now sleep on Al Gross.

Al Gross should have won. We need a doctor in the Senate during this time of a pandemic.

There's actually three of them in the Senate right now (Barrasso, Cassidy, and Paul). 

I was alluding to our favorite poster OC in that post. He claimed that Al Gross and Barbara Bollier would be the only doctors in the Senate if they were elected. On a serious note, it is a shame that Al Gross lost. He is a really colorful character and would have made a great Senator.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Anything coming out of AZ today?  Boy, would like to get that one in the books.  Would put real pressure on Trump with the high recount standards.

I don’t think there’s much of anything left?

There's an estimated 45K outstanding (27K of which is provisionals and 3K needing signature cures -- not all of these categories will be accepted).  They may have stopped counting today for the holiday.

Realistically 35k?

The model I've been using in the updates to see whether Trump could catch up uses 50% acceptance for the signature cures and 80% for provisionals.  That estimates 38,835 accepted of 45,819 remaining ballots.  But both of those percentages are unrealistically high (deliberately so to see if Trump had any realistic chance).  35K is probably a reasonable estimate; if anything, I'd take the under on it.

So Trump needs 24 out of 35? So 68-69% where he will probably get 58% +\-5%?

Something like that.  Also just saw this:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1326647654781120513

After Maricopa finishes we should have a great deal of clarity.

[redjohn]

Biden running ahead of Gross is objectively hilarious given our pre-election expectations for Gross. Didn't think he would win, but losing by ~18 and running behind Biden in AK is just an awful performance.

[Roll Roons]

Also NC was officially called for Tillis. Any chance of a presidential call here either today or tomorrow?

[Bootes Void]

Also NC was officially called for Tillis. Any chance of a presidential call here either today or tomorrow?

Hay they even started counting? I heard they would do it until the 12th

[Middle-aged Europe]

WASHINGTON — There is a growing expectation among President Donald Trump’s advisers that he will never concede that he lost re-election, even after votes are certified in battleground states over the coming weeks, according to multiple people familiar with the president’s thinking.

“Do not expect him to concede,” one top aide said. More likely, the aide said, “he’ll say something like, ‘We can’t trust the results, but I’m not contesting them.’”

Another adviser said that after the legal battles and recounts, the closest the president is likely to get to a concession is, “he’ll acknowledge the results and that we’ll never know how accurate they are.”

“But we’re not there yet,” the adviser said.

...

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/trump-may-accept-results-never-concede-he-lost-aides-say-n1247445

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/decisiondeskhq/status/1326649109453922305?s=21

https://twitter.com/ericmillerfink/status/1326649270347427842?s=21

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1326660500738830337

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1326660500738830337

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1326660500738830337

So, not only is Trump not getting the >60% share of the remaining vote that he needs, but Biden is also winning some of these batches outright, making the threshold for the even smaller pool of remaining votes higher.

I think that the remaining networks will call AZ after the penultimate Maricopa dump tonight.

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1326664297930321921

So, in 2.5 hours, guys.

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1326664297930321921

So, in 2.5 hours, guys.

Will be very interesting to see if the military vote here is even worse for Trump than elsewhere, given McCain.

[WD]

https://twitter.com/rtmradio/status/1326660188968022016

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Trump won the last few batches from Pima, Biden finally reversed that trend.


If it is true that maricopa dumps 13k here in a few hours, and trump doesnt win them overwhelmingly, it is over



Custer's Trumpster's last stand in MT AZ

[Rand]

https://twitter.com/rtmradio/status/1326660188968022016

I met him at Will Rogers Airport last year. He’s not bad.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1326665741433647104

The estimated ballots left website just updated with the numbers from Pima and Yavapai.  I'll post an update in a couple minutes.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/rtmradio/status/1326660188968022016

I met him at Will Rogers Airport last year. He’s not bad.

He's not a Trumpy like Loeffler, Cotton, or Hawley. He's just a typical rank and file Republican.