Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Logical]

https://twitter.com/joelmgunter/status/1499019377328504835?t=7H6HarE14wXFdy4C8hu...
Mariupol is getting being leveled block by block. This is not surprising as Russia really really hate the Azov battalion who are defending the city.

Anecdotal personal experience, but I'm seeing signs that the Russian bot farms are getting active after being overwhelmed at the start of the information war. New accounts created within the past few days parroting similar lines and linking to doctored media. Be careful and verify what you see out there.

[afleitch]

https://twitter.com/joelmgunter/status/1499020076913250309?s=20&t=Pu9hb-YywT...

Russians have been shelling Mariupol for 15 or more hours, indiscriminately targeting residential districts. Hundreds of civilians believed to be dead.

This will be repeated in Kharkiv, Kyiv, and any other major city that puts up resistance. War crimes are the only strategy the Russian monsters know.

If Russian military inadequacy has reduced them to shelling residential areas, then that requires a direct military response.

I don't think in good conscience, we can maintain direct non-intervention when the target is almost exclusively civilians. This can be UN as opposed to NATO intervention.

[Torie]

Here is a piece on sanctions and the Russian economy for Jaichind to lap up.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/02/economy/russia-imports-sanctions-economy/index.html

If Torie were POTUS, he would be interested in forcing the price of oil and other raw materials that Russia sells down, down, down, to bankrupt the Russian state and hasten its collapse. How in the world to do that? You flood the planet with oil etc while at the same time taxing its use to retard consumption, while yes, subsidizing green some more to further reduce demand over time. Yes, that means gas prices go up some more, but fighting and defeating evil is not for free, and Torie is not running for reelection. He plans to get his approval rating down to 10% by the end of his term. The idea however is for Putin's term to end before Torie's.

Wouldn't it be beautiful if the cost to pump oil out of the ground in Russia cost more than they could sell it?

[Sir Mohamed]

It is time to call this what it is: This is an attempt at genocide. Putin wants to eradicate the Ukrainian people, either by mass killings of civilians or the suppression of their culture.

He possibly changed stategy in recent days: "If I can't occupy and rule them, I kill them." What a sick monster.

[Tintrlvr]

Seeing some people commenting on Twitter (so take this with a HUGE grain of salt), that it is (was?) Russia's plan to reinstall Yanukovych as president of whatever is left of Ukraine after all of this. The Russians cannot possibly be **that** stupid, right? It's one thing to put someone in power from the opposition that people do not have any real strong feelings towards, but that guy? If Yanukovych is eventually reinstalled, he wouldn't last a year.

Yanukovych has said he wants Crimea back in Ukraine. He doesn’t bow low enough to be reinstalled - I think this is clickbait.

Also Yanukovych was a failure and a coward. Surely there is some other Party of Regions apparatchik they'd rather install than reward Yanukovych.

[Storebought]

Reports that Putin was beside himself about the slow timetable were wrong. Putin is mad about the EU sanctions (feeling betrayed by Germany now that Merkel is gone?), and he is taking it out on civilian targets.

But if the US/UK/France categorically rule out a military intervention, so what can stop this?

[It’s so Joever]

Another day, another preventable tragedy.
The only question now is how far can Putin go without being challenged? Unfortunately this is an experiment in watching what a dictator who threatens with nukes can get away with. Make no mistake, China, Iran, and North Korea are watching.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Reports that Putin was beside himself about the slow timetable were wrong. Putin is mad about the EU sanctions (feeling betrayed by Germany now that Merkel is gone?), and he is taking it out on civilian targets.

But if the US/UK/France categorically rule out a military intervention, so what can stop this?

Putin is totally myopic. On February 15 Olaf Scholz told him that it is unlikely that NATO membership of Ukraine will even be on the agenda for the forseeable future. Putin told him what he probably told everyone, that the Russian troops amassing at the Ukrainian border are merely there for military maneuvers. Nine days later he invaded Ukraine. Who betrayed who?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/joelmgunter/status/1499020076913250309?s=20&t=Pu9hb-YywT...
Russians have been shelling Mariupol for 15 or more hours, indiscriminately targeting residential districts. Hundreds of civilians believed to be dead.

This will be repeated in Kharkiv, Kyiv, and any other major city that puts up resistance. War crimes are the only strategy the Russian monsters know.

If Russian military inadequacy has reduced them to shelling residential areas, then that requires a direct military response.

I don't think in good conscience, we can maintain direct non-intervention when the target is almost exclusively civilians. This can be UN as opposed to NATO intervention.

This is an ahistorical take. Although the Russian tactics and machinery allowed for far worse in Grozny and Aleppo than other places, there has been mass shelling of areas where civilians outnumber combatants since mass shelling was possible and UN intervention has often been vetoed (or simply not called for, in certain cases). If “direct military action” were required against these tactics, NATO would have to intervene against its own allies in multiple theatres. I’m not saying a case can’t be made for mass humanitarian intervention, but it’s a case most countries will have difficulty advancing or accepting, and the public won’t be behind it once intervention starts at the scale required.

Even if nuclear weapons weren’t used, it’s possible the scale of destruction resulting from a conventional war between Russia and NATO could outstrip anything possible in this localised conflict (I’d expect fewer civilian casualties and more military ones). Surely it is better for the hawks to try everything that isn’t likely to cause a nuclear holocaust instead of escalating from 10 to 100 - there’s a lot of sanctions and military aid our governments are neglecting to consider, but the pundits keep agitating for a no-fly zone and some kind of “direct action.”

[The Free North]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-update-12

snip

snip

Hey awesome maps, where are they from ? I can't seem to find them on the site you linked, which is also brilliant btw

I would second this. Is there a source for these maps somewhere?

[Torie]

Another day, another preventable tragedy.
The only question now is how far can Putin go without being challenged? Unfortunately this is an experiment in watching what a dictator who threatens with nukes can get away with. Make no mistake, China, Iran, and North Korea are watching.

Yes, I fear the experiment is whether, with the whole world watching, the West has the stomach to do nothing further while Putin fires missiles into Ukraine's major cities reducing them to dust ala Grozny until the explosions are just breaking down the rubble into smaller bits because nothing else is left - including people.  We now know to Putin is enough of a monster to do exactly that if he thinks it is necessary to restore Russia to its former glory as he sees it and that he can get away with it. How much poison can the Western stomach tolerate until it vomits it all out?

[Logical]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-update-12

snip

snip

Hey awesome maps, where are they from ? I can't seem to find them on the site you linked, which is also brilliant btw

I would second this. Is there a source for these maps somewhere?

https://twitter.com/JominiW

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-calls-russian-invasion-holocaust-140103339.html

Even Trump is now calling it a genocide

[It’s so Joever]

Another day, another preventable tragedy.
The only question now is how far can Putin go without being challenged? Unfortunately this is an experiment in watching what a dictator who threatens with nukes can get away with. Make no mistake, China, Iran, and North Korea are watching.

Yes, I fear the experiment is whether, with the whole world watching, the West has the stomach to do nothing further while Putin fires missiles into Ukraine's major cities reducing them to dust ala Grozny until the explosions are just breaking down the rubble into smaller bits because nothing else is left - including people.  We now know to Putin is enough of a monster to do exactly that if he thinks it is necessary to restore Russia to its former glory as he sees it and that he can get away with it. How much poison can the Western stomach tolerate until it vomits it all out?

You read the words from the Western posters on here, the answer is simple, there is no red line. Putin can do whatever he wants to Ukraine so long as it does not hurt us. Those who do believe in the continued existence of the Ukrainian people ought to hope these opinions are more fringe than anything. We will see. God save Kyiv.

[jaichind]

Odds on Predict and Polymarket

Odds of Putin still being Russia Prez by end of 2022: 78/22
Odds of Zelensky still being Ukraine Prez by April 22 2022: 49/51

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

O_O

https://mobile.twitter.com/PalmerReport/status/1498805592068136960

[Cassius]

Seeing some people commenting on Twitter (so take this with a HUGE grain of salt), that it is (was?) Russia's plan to reinstall Yanukovych as president of whatever is left of Ukraine after all of this. The Russians cannot possibly be **that** stupid, right? It's one thing to put someone in power from the opposition that people do not have any real strong feelings towards, but that guy? If Yanukovych is eventually reinstalled, he wouldn't last a year.

Yanukovych has said he wants Crimea back in Ukraine. He doesn’t bow low enough to be reinstalled - I think this is clickbait.

Plus, the association between Yanukovych and Moscow was always primarily a marriage of convenience. The former was not so much “pro-Russian” as pro-Yanukovych, but was happy to align with Russia (in the end) due to Moscow’s willingness to offer support with fewer strings attached than the EU. He was never fully trusted by the Russian leadership and they considered him to be essentially incompetent. At this stage I’d think the most likely figure for a Russian puppet leader in Ukraine would be someone like Medvedchuk (who is actually close to Putin).

Also, any kind of ‘UN intervention’ is obviously off of the table because it wouldn’t be able to muster enough support internationally and, in any case, would simply be vetoed by Russia and China.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Another day, another preventable tragedy.
The only question now is how far can Putin go without being challenged? Unfortunately this is an experiment in watching what a dictator who threatens with nukes can get away with. Make no mistake, China, Iran, and North Korea are watching.

Yes, I fear the experiment is whether, with the whole world watching, the West has the stomach to do nothing further while Putin fires missiles into Ukraine's major cities reducing them to dust ala Grozny until the explosions are just breaking down the rubble into smaller bits because nothing else is left - including people.  We now know to Putin is enough of a monster to do exactly that if he thinks it is necessary to restore Russia to its former glory as he sees it and that he can get away with it. How much poison can the Western stomach tolerate until it vomits it all out?

You read the words from the Western posters on here, the answer is simple, there is no red line. Putin can do whatever he wants to Ukraine so long as it does not hurt us. Those who do believe in the continued existence of the Ukrainian people ought to hope these opinions are more fringe than anything. We will see. God save Kyiv.

Obviously the West needs to do more for Ukraine, but you need to keep the destruction in perspective. The bombardment of Grozny was, at its time, the most destructive urban campaign (for civilians) since WWII. It killed under 10% of the city’s population, an appalling figure, but also one that speaks to how resilient and resourceful people can be even as their cities are flattened and life collapses all around them. People still live in Aleppo, and some managed to stay there for the whole war.

The war crimes in Mariupol are punitive and meant to intimidate, but even thermobaric bombardment is not in the same ballpark as death camps. A majority of its people are likely to survive this conflict between Ukraine and Russia. A nuclear conflict could ultimately kill more of them, so conventional warfare should only be considered (if at all) once all other options have been exhausted.

[compucomp]

O_O

https://mobile.twitter.com/PalmerReport/status/1498805592068136960

The Americans bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 1999 and there were no consequences. I guess it's good to be on top of the world pecking order, huh?

[Sir Mohamed]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-calls-russian-invasion-holocaust-140103339.html

Even Trump is now calling it a genocide

LOL, let's see whether he sticks with that and ultimately calls out Putin personally. That said, if you're on the opposite side of Sanders, Biden, McConnell AND Trump, perhaos you're on the wrong side.

[Middle-aged Europe]

O_O

https://mobile.twitter.com/PalmerReport/status/1498805592068136960

The Americans bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 1999 and there were no consequences. I guess it's good to be on top of the world pecking order, huh?

Whataboutism is a technique that was perfected by the Pravda.

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

O_O

https://mobile.twitter.com/PalmerReport/status/1498805592068136960

The Americans bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 1999 and there were no consequences. I guess it's good to be on top of the world pecking order, huh?

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-calls-russian-invasion-holocaust-140103339.html

Even Trump is now calling it a genocide

LOL, let's see whether he sticks with that and ultimately calls out Putin personally. That said, if you're on the opposite side of Sanders, Biden, McConnell AND Trump, perhaos you're on the wrong side.

Well I think this does show that the base of each wing of the parties are anti Russia here which is a good thing. It also shows how social media once again isn’t actually representative of the public

[WMS]

O_O

https://mobile.twitter.com/PalmerReport/status/1498805592068136960

Intentionally attacking another country’s embassy or consulate could be considered a casus belli. At the very least, even if Russia didn’t deliberately target it they didn’t care if it got hit.

That’s different from the inevitable whataboutism certain to be posted by - oh look he did it while I was tying this - compucomp over the 1999 Chinese embassy getting hit in the Kosovo war (and of course China supported Slobodan Milosevic) - which was not intentional.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Seeing some people commenting on Twitter (so take this with a HUGE grain of salt), that it is (was?) Russia's plan to reinstall Yanukovych as president of whatever is left of Ukraine after all of this. The Russians cannot possibly be **that** stupid, right? It's one thing to put someone in power from the opposition that people do not have any real strong feelings towards, but that guy? If Yanukovych is eventually reinstalled, he wouldn't last a year.

Well, Putin has already disproven that he's this great strategic mind many assumed for a long time. Especially with how poorly the ground war is going. So another strategic error like this wouldn't surprise me at all. No more.

What other even semi-prominent Ukrainian Quisling could they find to install as head of a puppet government? There’s a reason why no one took the Apartheid Regime’s Bantustans seriously (not even the regime itself), and why Israel can’t just set up a compliant “Palestinian State” in Areas A & B of the West Bank, annex Area C, and call it a day. You need at least a few credible collaborators for something like this to work